Global Energy Stocks -- the next big breakout?

ETF Allocations — Gold Up, Crypto Down

Just as allocations to gold ETFs are starting to move higher, allocations to crypto (Bitcoin & Ethereum) have peaked and rolled over.
The below chart looks at “implied allocations“ of investors by taking basically the market share of aggregated assets in US listed ETFs. While there are obviously other ways to gain exposure to gold (and Bitcoin), this does give an insight into investor positioning in these assets via the ETF market. $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$

Gold vs Bitcoin Ratio

With Bitcoin heading into a bear market (down -25% from top-to-bottom), the gold vs bitcoin ratio is turning up off relative lows.
Just as I noted how gold was breaking out vs stocks last week, this could well be the start of a major breakout by gold vs bitcoin. So it’s something to keep an eye on as the macro-risk backdrop shifts.

Commodity Stocks Sequence

This one reminds me of my chart of processions in relative performance for gold vs other assets (gold outperforming cash, then bonds, and now stocks), and the sequence of breakouts in gold, then silver, and then industrial metals.
So I think this observation is on the money, and I think this procession of processions is poignant. As Tavi observes: “Gold stocks broke out of a major consolidation. Copper miners followed with almost the same pattern. Energy equities are next, in my view.“ (source)

Global Energy Stocks

And if you look at global energy stocks there is some very interesting price action underway indeed. The world energy stock index is turning up with strengthening breadth — and is set to challenge the upper end of that multi-year trading range.
As with the chart above, put this sector on breakout watch. $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2512(MCLmain)$

Crude Oil on the Cusp

Of course a key variable for the previous two charts is going to be what happens with the oil price. At the moment neither bulls nor bears have really been able to gain the upper hand, with crude oil stuck in the range.
To me what’s significant about this chart is the fact that despite all the bearishness on energy prices, WTI crude has managed to hold valiantly onto that lower support level. In other words, the absence of a bearish breakdown is evidence of bullishness.
And the other thing is Consensus Inc sentiment has been steadily ticking higher off previous consensus pessimism. That’s a classic bullish sentiment signal.
So I think crude oil and energy stocks are well worth keeping a close eye on, and they could be the next big thing and perhaps even *the* big story of 2026.

For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!

Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.

Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD 5000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.
Click to access the activity

Other helpful links:

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.