Thanksgiving week always seems to cast a strange spell over the markets. There’s this seasonal rhythm where investors return from the holiday with a renewed sense of energy, and sometimes the charts react as if they’ve caught the mood. But this month feels different — more cautious, more tense, like everyone’s watching the S&P 500 out of the corner of their eye.
The index slipped about 2% in November, marking its weakest month since March. Volatility picked up, headlines turned dramatic, and for a moment it felt as if the market was wobbling. Yet despite the shakiness, Citi’s head of Wealth Management still talked about “room” left in the bull market — and apparently the firm has seen record inflows from wealthy clients this year. It’s one of those classic market contradictions: anxiety layered on top of optimism.
S&P 500 (.SPX)
Then came Friday. Rate-cut expectations shifted again, the Fed stepped in, and the market flipped from negative to positive in what felt like a single breath. It was the kind of reversal that makes you stare at the chart and wonder what on earth just happened.
Now the big question hangs in the air: Will Thanksgiving week break the four-year pattern? Is this going to be another one of those automatic holiday rallies, the kind that seems to happen almost by muscle memory?
On top of that, the Fed is expected to end QT in December. Historically, moments like that don’t pass quietly. Liquidity shifts tend to ripple through markets in ways that are sometimes favorable, sometimes messy, but rarely boring.
As for me — I’ve been bearish for quite a long time. Not in a dramatic “the sky is falling” way, but in a steady, cautious way. What makes this market so unusual is how often dips are followed by rebounds. Sometimes sharp, sometimes slow, but almost always persistent. It creates this uncanny feeling that the market has been bullish for longer than logic would suggest.
Because of that, I haven’t been making large purchases recently. No big bets, no sweeping moves. Just patience. The resilience is impressive, but it doesn’t completely erase my caution. History is full of periods where markets stayed strong for surprisingly long stretches — right up until they didn’t. The late ’90s had that feel. Parts of 2007 felt that way too. Not identical situations, of course, but reminders that markets often stay upbeat even when cracks are forming underneath.
So am I bullish or bearish this week? Still bearish — gently, not aggressively. The market keeps showing this strange mix of sturdiness and fragility, and I’m simply choosing to move carefully through it. If Thanksgiving brings another rally, I won’t be shocked. This market has a habit of turning hesitation into momentum, and for now, I’m just watching that pattern play out from a more cautious distance.
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