$Netflix(NFLX)$ $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$
📉 The Political Pendulum Has Turned Against $NFLX
I have traded antitrust-choked deals for decades. Some die quietly in boardrooms. Some die on live microphones. This one just stepped into the spotlight.
Trump publicly called out $NFLX’s $72B all-cash bid as a market share problem with 35%+ combined US streaming dominance. He also made it clear he will be involved in the decision.
This is especially notable after Trump recently praised $NFLX co-CEO Ted Sarandos during an Oval Office visit. Meanwhile, son-in-law Jared Kushner is backing $PSKY’s rival bid, shifting political capital away from $NFLX and toward a Trump-aligned alternative.
📊 Bloomberg pro-forma revenue charts show the combined entity overtaking every global streaming competitor, surpassing YouTube and Disney by a wide margin. Regulators do not ignore dominance that visible.
Rosenblatt immediately downgraded $NFLX citing protracted regulatory clearance. This shifted the merger from valuation play into election-driven power struggle. Kushner backing Paramount’s rival bid only tightens the political squeeze around Netflix.
This has gone from a valuation play to a political knife fight.
📊 Charts Confirm Money Has Fled the $NFLX Side
Latest session:
• Current 95.92
• Open 99.79 → high 99.82 → low 95.30
• –4.31% intraday
• 48.95M+ shares traded, high-conviction distribution
• Volume flowed on every breakdown
• $100 failed as structural and psychological support
Technical implications:
• Full 4H Bollinger mid-break → bear expansion
• All EMAs now bearishly stacked and accelerating lower
• If this volume persists, next target $92
Professionals have already moved. Retail is still arguing about content.
🎥📈 $WBD Is Now a Takeover-Momentum Chart
Recent price action:
• High 28.16, low 25.41
• 198M+ volume spike showing aggressive accumulation
• 90-day MA reclaimed
• Bullish Keltner expansion, rising EMAs
$PSKY’s hostile bid at $30 per share equates to ~$77.9B total value, outpacing $NFLX’s $27.75 per share collar. Former resistance is now a launch platform.
🏛️ Regulators Have More Ammunition Than $NFLX Can Afford
Market share maths:
• $NFLX 25% US subs
• $WBD’s HBO Max 8 to 10%
• Combined 35%+ dominance
This activates Sherman Act presumption of harm.
Trump’s vow to get personally involved turns a review into a blockade threat.
Forced asset sales destroy synergies.
A full block kneecaps $NFLX’s premium multiple.
This pivot was not in Sarandos’ briefing package.
🎯💣 $PSKY Has Shifted Negotiating Dynamics
Deal structure:
• $30 all-cash tender for $WBD
• ~$77.9B financing required
• $PSKY debt ~$15B
• FCF ~$0.3B
• $18B more cash to $WBD holders than $NFLX’s bid
• Kushner ties shift political leverage
The balance sheet maths says risk.
The psychological maths says $NFLX does not control the room any longer.
💰📈 Fundamentals Now Favour $WBD Even If $NFLX Walks
$NFLX margins:
• 10-year expansion into mid-20%
• World-class monetisation
• Now eroding under deal drag
$WBD improvements:
• >16% debt reduction since Dec 2022
• Quarterly cash build
• Stabilising core business even without takeover pricing
• Hostile bid raises the floor
Outcomes for $WBD:
Blocked deal → wins
$NFLX deal clears → wins more
$PSKY prevails → wins biggest
🧠🔥 This Trade Has the Highest Probability on My Board
I am short $NFLX and long $WBD.
Regulatory haze caps $NFLX upside.
Multiple bids propel $WBD.
Execution plan:
• Short $NFLX
• Long $WBD
• Risk sizing 2 to 3% max
• $NFLX risk marker 100
• $WBD risk marker 25
• Catalyst timing into early Q1, aligned with Trump’s review timeline
Better opportunities appear when markets price perfection.
Then politics destroys the storyline.
🧨 Polymarket Odds Have Collapsed
Real-money probabilities now price in failure:
• 16% chance Netflix closes the deal by end-2026
• −43% collapse in deal odds since Trump’s comments
• Pricing mirrors the AT&T-Time Warner delay spiral, where billions were wiped out on uncertainty alone
Arbitrage desks are now treating this as a low-probability closure with high political risk premium. That accelerates the bear pressure on $NFLX.
🏁💼 Conclusion: One Side Pays If This Fails. One Side Gets Paid Either Way
$NFLX must defend valuation.
$WBD does not.
I am positioned before the crowd connects the dots.
My conviction has rarely been this strong.
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