I’ve spent decades watching aerospace and defence cycles rotate in and out of favour, and true regime shifts are rare. What’s unfolding in $RKLB is one of them. This is no longer a launch narrative trading on aspiration. The market is now treating Rocket Lab as a vertically integrated defence space manufacturer with durable, government-backed revenue and long-runway optionality across spacecraft, launch, and constellation services.
The catalyst was decisive. $RKLB surged more than +16% after securing a firm fixed-price OTA award worth up to $805M for the SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 program. If fully exercised, this is the largest contract in the company’s history and places Rocket Lab alongside Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris as one of only four awarded vendors. That peer group matters. It signals trust, execution credibility, and permanence within US space infrastructure.
Execution followed immediately. Rocket Lab delivered a flawless STP-S30 mission for the US Space Force on 18Dec25, accelerated five months ahead of schedule, deploying DiskSats for NASA and the Aerospace Corporation into a 550km orbit. This marked Electron’s 20th successful launch in 2025, a 100% mission success rate, and the strongest operational year in the company’s history. In defence markets, reliability compounds faster than marketing ever can.
📊 Weekly structure, regime confirmation
On the weekly chart, price is reclaiming the upper range after successfully holding the $46.98–$49.29 support zone, a region that previously acted as heavy resistance. The broader trend remains intact with higher lows and expanding range acceptance. RSI sits constructively in the mid-60s, confirming continuation rather than exhaustion. Above the $73.50 region, price transitions into blue sky territory where historical resistance no longer governs discovery.
📈 Daily chart, trend validation
On the daily timeframe, the earlier bounce off the 200-day moving average defined the cycle low and marked institutional defence of structure. The subsequent pullback respected the 50-day moving average, which acted as dynamic support before price accelerated higher. That sequence, 200-day defence followed by 50-day reclaim, is a classic trend repair pattern that often precedes multi-quarter re-ratings. Volume expansion on the breakout confirms acceptance.
⏱️ 4H structure, volatility expansion
On the 4-hour chart, Keltner and Bollinger bands are expanding after prolonged compression. Price is riding the upper Keltner channel with the EMA stack aligned and rising. This is a volatility regime shift, not a single impulse candle. Pullbacks are shallow and bought early, signalling institutional participation rather than retail chase.
⚡ 30-minute momentum, execution layer
On the 30-minute timeframe, momentum remains clean and directional. Price is holding above the rising EMA structure with no meaningful downside follow-through after pauses. This confirms strong intraday demand and reinforces that accumulation is occurring across all execution layers.
🐳 Options flow context
I noted a $228k sweep on the 9Jan26 $46 puts, 6k contracts executed 100% at the ask. I interpret this as tactical hedging or a short-term volatility expression against a stretched tape, not a structural bearish position. In aligned multi-timeframe setups like this, professionals hedge exposure rather than exit conviction.
📊 Revenue growth and operating leverage, the part most people still miss
The re-rating is being driven by accelerating fundamentals. Consensus points to roughly 47% revenue CAGR through 2026, with revenue scaling from approximately $400M in 2024 to an estimated $600M in 2025 and toward $850M–$900M in 2026. This growth is not speculative. It is underpinned by more than $1B in backlog, expanding to approximately $1.35B post-SDA, providing the visibility institutions require to underwrite defence platforms.
Neutron is the step-function catalyst. With roughly 13,000 kg payload capacity, around 40x Electron, even a limited number of launches materially changes revenue per mission. Three planned launches in 2026 alone unlock approximately six times the revenue per launch compared with Electron, while expanding Rocket Lab’s addressable market into medium-lift defence and constellation deployment. Recent validation, including qualification of the Hungry Hippo fairing and a Canadian Space Agency award supporting next-generation reaction wheels, continues to de-risk execution.
Crucially, Space Systems is already carrying the economics. With around $586M in backlog and generating roughly twice the gross profit of launch services in 2025, this division validates Rocket Lab’s evolution into a vertically integrated manufacturer rather than a volume-dependent launcher. That mix shift is why the path to profitability is becoming clearer, with EPS projected to improve toward approximately -$0.24 by 2026 as scale drives operating leverage.
🌕 Macro and policy tailwinds
US policy direction reinforces this trajectory. Lunar timelines, Artemis acceleration, permanent lunar outpost planning, nuclear power deployment, leaner procurement, and a clear preference for OTAs and commercial-first solutions structurally favour agile, vertically integrated providers. Rocket Lab sits precisely where policy intent meets execution capability.
📈 Institutional valuation bridge, why a $50B framework is plausible
Institutions value defence platforms on backlog durability, revenue predictability, and operating leverage rather than near-term earnings noise. At an $850M–$900M 2026 revenue run rate, growing at ~47% CAGR, supported by $1.35B+ backlog and an improving margin mix led by Space Systems, Rocket Lab begins to screen less like a speculative growth name and more like an emerging prime. Applying a forward 8–10x revenue multiple, which is conservative relative to defence-adjacent peers with comparable visibility and strategic importance, supports a valuation framework that approaches and ultimately justifies $50B as Neutron scales and recurring government programs compound. This is not hype. It is recalibration.
📈 My position and capital at work
I’m long $RKLB with conviction. My unrealised P&L is +25.41%, with an average cost of $55.79 and price trading around $70.05 as of 20Dec25 NZ time. This is not theoretical analysis. It is real capital being validated as the market re-rates Rocket Lab from a perceived launcher into a defence-grade space manufacturer.
If SpaceX lists in 2026 anywhere near a $1.5T valuation, the comparative lens alone forces a broader re-evaluation across the sector. In that environment, Rocket Lab’s positioning becomes impossible to ignore.
Most people still underestimate how big this is. One of four vendors. Firm fixed pricing. Defence credibility. A New Zealand-founded company now embedded in US space infrastructure. This is not a trade. This is a transformation.
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