From my perspective, confirmation that NVIDIA plans to resume H200 deliveries to China around mid-February 2026 is a meaningful near-term catalyst. The expected 5,000–10,000 module sets—equivalent to roughly 40,000–80,000 H200 chips—won't redefine NVIDIA's global revenue base on their own, but they clearly help stabilize expectations around China exposure. After months of uncertainty driven by export controls, even partial normalization reduces downside risk and improves visibility, which explains why the stock reacted positively with a 3% gain.
That said, I see the China H200 story more as a confidence booster than a structural growth re-acceleration. The volume involved is material, but not transformative compared with hyperscaler demand in the US, Middle East, and Europe. What matters more to me is the signaling effect: NVIDIA is still able to monetize advanced accelerators in China within regulatory boundaries. This reinforces the idea that NVIDIA's growth engine is resilient and adaptable, rather than overly dependent on any single geography.
On whether the rally can last, I think sustainability depends less on the H200 headline and more on follow-through from fundamentals. If upcoming earnings continue to show strong backlog conversion, robust pricing power, and expanding AI infrastructure spend into 2026, then this rebound has legs. If, however, the market starts to see signs of order digestion or slower capex growth from hyperscalers, the stock could easily consolidate, regardless of incremental China shipments.
Valuation is where I'm more cautious. At current levels, I don't see NVIDIA as "cheap" in a traditional sense. The stock is pricing in long-duration AI dominance, continued platform lock-in, and limited competitive erosion. I'm comfortable with that premium only because NVIDIA has consistently executed better than expectations. In other words, it's not undervalued—but it's also not obviously overvalued if earnings momentum remains intact.
Overall, I view the H200 China sales as a supportive catalyst rather than the core reason to stay bullish. My stance is constructive but selective: I'm willing to hold or add on pullbacks, not chase strength purely on headlines. For me, NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
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