🎅📈⚡ Santa Rally Tailwinds Meet Compression, $TSLA Coils After Seven Resistance Tests as $MU Confirms AI Memory Pricing Power ⚡📈🎅

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Bullish $Micron Technology(MU)$ Bullish $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Bullish 24Dec25 🇺🇸|25Dec25 🇳🇿🎄🎄🎄 I’m framing this top-down, because regime always comes before stock selection.

This is a textbook Santa Rally environment. Volatility is crushed, positioning is directional, and both SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY) and S&P 500 Index ($SPX) are printing fresh all-time highs. This has not been a euphoric melt-up. It has been a controlled grind higher, and historically those trends tend to persist longer than most expect.

📉 IV Rank on $SPY is now 1.66%, an extreme compression signal. Markets do not stay priced for calm indefinitely. When volatility collapses to this degree, the next phase is typically driven by positioning and flow, not headlines.

📈 Net Drift has been precise. Short-dated options continue to dominate, with <=90DTE calls leading puts by more than $21M intraday. In rising markets, persistent call dominance forces dealer hedging into strength, reinforcing upside momentum rather than capping it.

🎄 $SPY pushed to fresh all-time highs. Vol stayed compressed, flow stayed bullish, and price delivered exactly what the data implied.

🎄 $SPX confirmed with another record close on Christmas Eve. The $DJI and $IXIC also finished higher for a fifth straight session, while $VIX fell below 14 for the first time in a year. This is a relaxed volatility regime, not a stressed one.

📊 Christmas Eve market breadth confirms healthy participation into the holiday.

NYSE

Advancers 2,882 vs decliners 1,216

Up volume led down volume roughly 2:1

Nasdaq

Advancers 7,364 vs decliners 3,420

Strong upside volume dominance

New highs beat new lows on both exchanges. This is what constructive holiday breadth looks like.

🎄 $SPY is now up over 18% YTD and over 39% since April 8.

If you invested $10,000 into $SPY on April 8 at the low of day:

$10,000 → $13,938

Profit: +$3,938

Return: +39.4%

Slow grind markets still compound fast. I follow the data.

📊 YTD performance across the Magnificent Seven reinforces why this grind has persisted rather than stalled.

• $GOOG: +65.57%

• $NVDA: +36.12%

• $TSLA: +27.69%

• $SPY: +18%

• $MSFT: +16.49%

• $AAPL: +12.18%

• $META: +11.26%

• $AMZN: +5.47%

This is not narrow leadership. It is broad, uneven, and rotating, exactly what durable bull phases tend to look like.

🎅 We are now in Day 2 of the 7-day Santa Rally window. Since 1950, December 26 has been the strongest single trading day of the year on average. This is not folklore. It is a repeatable seasonal tendency that shows up most often when volatility is compressed and indices are already trending higher.

Santa Rally refers to the tendency for equities to rise during the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. There is no single driver. Light holiday liquidity reduces institutional pressure. Investor optimism improves into year-end. Bonus and tax-related flows enter the market. Positioning resets ahead of the new calendar year. Expectations for policy clarity improve.

Historically, $SPX finishes December higher about 72% of the time, averaging roughly +1.4%. When December is already positive, average returns rise toward +2.9%. When $SPX is already up more than +10% by early December, the skew improves further. Small caps have been even stronger, with $RUT / $IWM finishing higher in roughly 78.9% of Decembers since 1987. When Santa fails to show up, it has historically been a warning sign.

⚡ Now the expression vehicle, Tesla ($TSLA).

I’m seeing seven consecutive touches of resistance with closes just beneath it. That is not rejection. That is absorption. This is classic compression. Price is coiling for expansion.

On the daily chart, Tesla continues to print higher lows while pressing into a clearly defined resistance zone. RSI in the low 60s reflects controlled momentum, not excess. On the 4H structure, price remains supported within the Keltner and Bollinger framework, with moving averages stacked constructively beneath. Pullbacks have been shallow and consistently absorbed. Repeated tests weaken supply. This is how ceilings give way.

📰 It is also telling how cheap-shot headlines reliably surface on red or flat days.

NHTSA has opened a defect petition covering approximately 179,071 Tesla Model 3 vehicles related to concerns around a mechanical emergency door release that may not be easily accessible. This is not a demand issue. It is about regulatory optics. Another investigation keeps safety scrutiny on Tesla and adds headline risk, even if no recall materialises. Markets tend to overreact to these probes initially and then recalibrate once scope and impact become clearer.

🧠 The confirming signal comes from the AI supply chain, led by Micron Technology ($MU).

Micron is moving after reports that Samsung and SK Hynix raised HBM3E memory prices by roughly 20%, an unusual move ahead of next-generation launches. That tells me demand remains structurally tight. Strong AI demand from Nvidia, Google, and Amazon is keeping pricing firm. When memory suppliers raise prices into a launch cycle, margin expansion typically follows. From a structure standpoint, Micron is already trending higher with expanding bands and improving momentum. This is confirmation, not coincidence.

🔗 This alignment matters.

🎅 Santa Rally seasonality

All-time highs in $SPY and $SPX

IV Rank at 1.66%

Short-dated call flow leading by >$21M intraday

Bullish holiday breadth

High-beta leadership compressing beneath resistance

AI infrastructure showing real pricing power

I’ve seen this combination across multiple cycles. In regimes like this, compression rarely resolves quietly. It resolves through expansion, and leadership names already under pressure are often the first to move.

🎄 Happy Holidays to all Tigers 🎄

As we wrap up the year, I want to say thank you to this incredible community. Markets are never just charts and data, they’re people, discipline, patience, and shared learning through every regime shift. Whether you’ve been trading actively, investing long-term, or simply sharpening your edge by observing, this year demanded adaptability and conviction.

Enjoy the time with family, friends, and a well-earned pause from the screens. The market will still be here, and 2026 will bring new opportunities, new volatility, and new stories to trade.

Rest, reset and come back sharp!

Wishing every Tiger a healthy, prosperous, and successful holiday season 🎄📈

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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