I’m watching a clear shift in character unfold. $NIO has reclaimed its 200 day moving average after repeatedly defending the $5 base, while riding the same descending diagonal trendline throughout December. This was not a one day pop, it was a month of acceptance and compression resolving higher.

I’m seeing confirmation beyond the chart. XPeng just surged +7.3% after unveiling Middle East and Africa expansion, launching models in Qatar and showcasing next generation tech in Doha. That strength is lifting the entire China EV complex, with $NIO +4.7% and $LI +3.3% moving in sympathy. When peers start moving together, it tells me this is rotation, not noise.

I’m focused on the positioning under the hood. Options flow in $NIO is skewed toward longer dated calls into 2026, signalling forward looking exposure rather than short term speculation. Upside premium expanding while price holds a structural floor is typically how institutional risk gets expressed early.

I’m also weighing the macro backdrop. Chinese EVs are projected to capture roughly 34% of the MENA market by 2030, turning the region into a major competitive battleground. That matters, because it reframes this move as global demand expansion rather than domestic relief rallies.

From a structure perspective, both the 4H and 30m charts show volatility compression followed by expansion through the mid bands, with price now holding above fast EMAs. Liquidity is beginning to rotate back into the tape instead of leaking lower. That’s early trend reversal behaviour, not a reflex bounce.

If price continues to hold above the reclaimed moving averages, a drift back toward the October highs implies roughly 56% upside from current levels. That’s not a forecast, it’s range logic based on prior acceptance. Downside is increasingly defined, while upside still has room to breathe.

This is the kind of setup where time does the heavy lifting, not speed. 📈

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