A few thoughts entered my head. I have decided to share them.

As many already know, selling is more difficult than buying. To me, selling is not about achieving price target. Rather it is about the trade environment and if my buy thesis has changed.

My thoughts 💭 bubble is as follows:

1) besides the well-known uncertainty surrounding today's economy, the dedollarisation or lost confidence in USD stands out in this precious metals pivot trade.

2) silver price breakouts around 3 months back, the price hikes during holiday shortened Christmas break, the typical quiet period, inviting more speculative traders.

3) China 🇨🇳 will start to implement export controls on silver from this Friday (2 Jan), resulting in possible "panic" buying.

4) CME started to hike margins for options holders to control run-away precious metals prices. It might look like a case of protecting traders, however the regulator is more concerned of its inability to fulfill its contract obligations. If silver price stays above $75, those exchanges will run out of physical silver to fulfill its contract obligation. I expect more stringent measures to cap price increases as the weeks go by to force down the price.

5) competing forces in the work. China 🇨🇳 will likely welcome the action taken by CME. By 02-Jan, silver price might have corrected substantially if the curbs succeeds. This no doubt provides a much favourable environment for China to accumulate silver (lower cost means more silver could be purchased). 

Yes, I will likely be taking losses for the next couple of days, or weeks. The whole silver and precious metals group investment thesis remains intact. Correction is part of this thesis and in fact healthy. Will this correction result in panic selling by weak hands (speculators)? Definitely a high possibility. 

Won't it then be better to take profit now to wait for a better re-entry price? Maybe 🤔... if I am doing trading. That's not my starting point, otherwise I would not be in my current position. I am a long term holder of silver and precious metals in general. 

What will I be doing?

Nothing much. Ordinarily, the key thing to look is the behaviour of gold. As stated so often, gold-silver ratio is critical. Gold and silver are tag team players. If gold holds its ground (given it has not moved as much), it will be a good sign that this run is not over.

There are just too many people expecting silver, platinum and palladium to correct or even crash. Yes, not rise but crash, throughout this run. The shorts have been building up. This is the time period for these people to sing up their tunes. 

This is not normal time. I will be watching China 🇨🇳 in January. Where Donald Trump likes to boost, China works best in its stealth 🥷 approach, strike when least expected. We may only see something come February. Do check out silver supply in January. I hope those silver haters prepare their underwear. Their rude shocks should at least not be embarrassment.

Just my thoughts bubble 🫧. Ignore me as different people are in different situations.

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