2026 Outlook: The Great Reset

Key Takeaways

• Equities enter a late-cycle correction phase

• Bonds and the dollar strengthen as risk comes off

• Crypto faces a deeper deleveraging cycle

• Gold consolidates after a multi-year advance

The table below outlines 2026 downside risk zones and expected year-end closing levels across major assets.

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

The S&P500 has marginally exceeded the upper boundary of its multi-year trend channel — a common signature of terminal 5th waves.

The Trigger: A reversal back below ~6,650 would confirm a false breakout.

The Trade: We are positioning for a higher-degree Wave 4 correction toward 5,500–5,100 (-20–25%), which aligns perfectly with the 200-week MA.

2. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

The Bond ETF completed a clear 5-wave decline into the 2023 lows and remains in a corrective recovery phase.

The Rotation: As equities correct, capital will rotate into safety (duration).

Outlook: Odds favor a Wave B rally targeting 98–108 (+12-25%), equaling the first leg up. This inversely correlates with the projected 20% drop in stocks.

3.DXY

Don't be fooled by the recent drop. After a ~10% decline in 2025, $DXY is stabilizing at a massive confluence of support:

• The decade-long channel from 2009.

• The primary trendline from 2023.

The Impact:

This sets the stage for a relief rally toward 102–107. Historically, dollar strength at these levels coincides with liquidity tightening and pressure on risk assets.

4.BTC

Bitcoin has likely completed a higher-degree 5-wave cycle stretching back to 2015. The speculative engine is stalling.

The Setup: Structure now favors a Wave 4 reset toward 30,000. This aligns with:

• Monthly FVG support.

• The 23.6% retracement of the decade-long rally.

Outlook: This is a cyclical reset, not a secular top. We expect a recovery into year-end as leverage is flushed out.

5. $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$

Gold surged in a higher-degree Wave 3 in 2025, reaching the 261.8% extension of Wave 1 while remaining perfectly contained within its multi-year trend channel.

The Setup: While price could drift marginally higher, risk favors a Wave 4 consolidation toward 4,000–3,800.

Outlook: A pullback to this zone would relieve excess momentum while preserving the structural uptrend. We view this as a buying opportunity for the final leg higher.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.