這是甚麼東西
01-15 17:18

The recent gold and silver sell-off appears to be primarily a technical reset and profit-taking after record highs, influenced by stronger-than-expected short-term U.S. economic data. However, a full trend reversal is unlikely due to strong underlying supportive factors.

Factors Suggesting a Technical Reset/Profit-Taking

Gold and silver recently reached new all-time highs. Pullbacks after significant rallies are often technical corrections or profit-taking.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data, along with a lower unemployment rate, have temporarily reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged. This pressures non-yielding assets like gold and silver by strengthening the U.S. dollar.

Factors Suggesting Continued Underlying Strength (Not a Trend Reversal)

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Despite recent strong data, the broader market anticipates interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with two cuts currently priced in. Lower interest rates generally benefit gold and silver, as they are non-yielding assets.

Concerns over Fed Independence: Threats of criminal indictment against Fed Chair Powell have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, driving safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Inflation and Debt Concerns: Macro analysts suggest that the rally in precious metals is a structural response to policy realities, with markets potentially underestimating the Federal Reserve's constraints due to the growing U.S. debt burden. This environment could lead to currency debasement and a secular bull market for gold and silver.

Central Bank Demand: Strong demand for gold from central banks, particularly China's PBOC, provides continuous support for prices.

Mixed Economic Signals: While some U.S. economic data has been strong, other reports indicate a cooling labor market or stagnating retail sales, which are seen as dovish for Fed policy and supportive of precious metals. Upcoming inflation and employment data will be crucial for further clarity.

In conclusion, the current dip in gold and silver prices is likely a short-term correction rather than a long-term reversal, given the persistent underlying factors supporting their safe-haven appeal and intrinsic value.

Silver Freefall! A Healthy Reset or End of Squeeze?
Spot Silver loses 5% before the market open. Citigroup expects silver to likely avoid U.S. tariffs, which could encourage metal outflows from U.S. warehouses and relieve global tightness. After a months-long security review, the Trump administration paused broad tariffs on key minerals, including silver and platinum, opting for bilateral talks. Wall Street remains constructive mid-term, citing supply deficits, industrial demand, and gold spillover. With tariff risk easing, is silver’s pullback a healthy reset or the end of the squeeze?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment
2