China's 2025 trade surplus rea

China's 2025 trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion, up 20% from 2024, with exports to the EU rising 8.4% while imports fell 0.4%, boosting the bilateral surplus by 18.1%; the surge with Germany was extreme at 108%, now comprising nearly a third of China's EU surplus, as verified by official customs data.

U.S. tariffs under Trump reduced bilateral trade—exports to the U.S. dropped 20%, imports 14.6%—prompting China to redirect subsidized goods like EVs and solar panels to Europe, exploiting open markets and undervalued currency to undercut local producers.

Germany's auto sector, reliant on China for sales, faces deindustrialization risks from this influx, mirroring broader EU vulnerabilities; a 2025 IMF report notes such overcapacity could erode 2-3% of EU manufacturing output annually if unaddressed.

Summary from X user Melissa Chen.

Will China and Europe continue to growth from increasing trade?

$iShares MSCI Germany ETF(EWG)$

$iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$

Reuters Poll Forecasts China's 2026-2027 Economic Growth and Inflation Rates

Reuters polls forecast China's 2026 consumer inflation at 0.7%, down from 0.9% in October, with 2027 inflation expected at 1.0%. The Q4 GDP growth is forecasted at 4.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 4.3% in October but down from 4.8% in Q3. The 2026 GDP growth forecast is 4.5%, up from 4.3%, with 2027 growth also expected at 4.5%. Q4 quarter-on-quarter GDP growth is forecasted at 1.0%, slightly below Q3's 1.1%.

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