Replying to @Shyon:I fully sup

Replying to @Shyon:I fully support this rationale.//@Shyon:TSM’s $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ blowout quarter pretty much reset the bar for the entire semiconductor space. With margins expanding, AI-driven demand proving real, and capex leaning heavily toward advanced nodes, the market is clearly rewarding execution and visibility — not just a good story.

That’s why Intel $Intel(INTC)$ feels like a tougher test. The stock is already up around 30% YTD, expectations on manufacturing progress have been pulled forward, and yet consensus still points to year-over-year declines in both revenue and profits. When expectations run ahead of fundamentals, the margin for disappointment gets very thin.

So my pick is 🔴 C. Down more than 5%. After such a strong pre-earnings run, Intel likely needs near-perfect execution to hold gains, and anything less could trigger a classic “sell the news” move.

@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub

Intel Earnings Test $50: Defense Win Enough?

Intel will report Q4 2025 earnings after the U.S. close on Jan 22, with expectations still subdued. The market forecasts revenue of $13.38B (-6.2% YoY) and an EPS loss of -$0.09, marking wider losses than last year. Ahead of earnings, sentiment improved after Intel won a major Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ contract, with a potential ceiling of $151B. Can the SHIELD defense contract meaningfully change Intel’s long-term revenue narrative? Into earnings, do you see Intel holding $50—or fading back on weak Q4 numbers?

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The market forecasts revenue of $13.38B (-6.2% YoY) and an EPS loss of -$0.09, marking wider losses than last year. Ahead of earnings, sentiment improved after Intel won a major Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ contract, with a potential ceiling of $151B. 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With margins expanding, AI-driven demand proving real, and capex leaning heavily toward advanced nodes, the market is clearly rewarding execution and visibility — not just a good story.\n\nThat’s why Intel <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\"> $Intel(INTC)$ </a> feels like a tougher test. The stock is already up around 30% YTD, expectations on manufacturing progress have been pulled forward, and yet consensus still points to year-over-year declines in both revenue and profits. When expectations run ahead of fundamentals, the margin for disappointment gets very thin.\nSo my pick is 🔴 C. Down more than 5%. After such a strong pre-earnings run, Intel likely needs near-perfect execution to hold gains, and anything less could trigger a classic “sell the news” move.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667671414981\"> @TigerClub </a><t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37242aed6ee92dbdb1da52ea803aaca8\"></t-t></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581734406950755\">@Shyon</a>:I fully support this rationale.//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581734406950755\">@Shyon</a>:TSM’s <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\"> $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ </a> blowout quarter pretty much reset the bar for the entire semiconductor space. With margins expanding, AI-driven demand proving real, and capex leaning heavily toward advanced nodes, the market is clearly rewarding execution and visibility — not just a good story.\n\nThat’s why Intel <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\"> $Intel(INTC)$ </a> feels like a tougher test. The stock is already up around 30% YTD, expectations on manufacturing progress have been pulled forward, and yet consensus still points to year-over-year declines in both revenue and profits. When expectations run ahead of fundamentals, the margin for disappointment gets very thin.\nSo my pick is 🔴 C. Down more than 5%. After such a strong pre-earnings run, Intel likely needs near-perfect execution to hold gains, and anything less could trigger a classic “sell the news” move.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667671414981\"> @TigerClub </a><t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37242aed6ee92dbdb1da52ea803aaca8\"></t-t></body></html>","text":"Replying to @Shyon:I fully support this rationale.//@Shyon:TSM’s $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ blowout quarter pretty much reset the bar for the entire semiconductor space. With margins expanding, AI-driven demand proving real, and capex leaning heavily toward advanced nodes, the market is clearly rewarding execution and visibility — not just a good story. That’s why Intel $Intel(INTC)$ feels like a tougher test. The stock is already up around 30% YTD, expectations on manufacturing progress have been pulled forward, and yet consensus still points to year-over-year declines in both revenue and profits. When expectations run ahead of fundamentals, the margin for disappointment gets very thin. So my pick is 🔴 C. Down more than 5%. 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