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Catch up fast：These events rocked the markets today.
Weekly Five Key Areas: Macro, Singapore Stocks, Options, Futures, Earnings
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📌【Today’s Question】
Amazon, with its highest capital expenditures, has fallen into a bear market. Are you optimistic about its future?
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Amazon has indeed entered a technical bear market as of February 2026, following eight consecutive days of declines after its Q4 2025 earnings report. The stock fell more than 21% from its recent high, primarily due to investor concern over its massive $200 billion capital expenditure (capex) plan for 2026.
Despite the current market pessimism, many analysts remain optimistic about Amazon’s long-term future because of
AWS Reacceleration: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw revenue growth accelerate to 24% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
AI Leadership: By developing its own hardware, Amazon aims to reduce reliance on third parties like NVIDIA and offer more cost-effective solutions.
While the market is currently "voting with its feet" against the high spending, 64 out of 68 analysts still maintain a "Buy" recommendation, with 12-month price targets clustering between $260 and $289, suggesting a potential upside of up to 40% from current levels.
Operational Growth: AWS revenue is seeing strong growth ($140B+ run rate), alongside a significant increase in ad revenue.
AI Focus: Investments in proprietary, high-growth AI chips are a key focus for future capacity.
Revenue surged more than sixfold year over year to $227.7M, while losses widened due to heavy investment. Like $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ , Nebius is riding the AI infrastructure wave and benefits directly from supplying Nvidia chips and cloud capacity, with contracted power capacity now above 2GW. Management is guiding for a sharp ramp in annualized revenue into 2026, reflecting confidence in sustained AI demand.
Technically, the stock is holding firm near its EMA200, showing solid support. It seems unable to break lower decisively, and this level may serve as a base for the next move up if AI momentum remains strong. I’ll be watching closely for a potential rebound as sentiment stabilizes.
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I believe that $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is currently on sale as it is trading below USD 200, down 2%. It has fallen 18% over the last 10 days. This can be attributed to capex shock after Amazon announced a massive USD 200 billion capex plan for 2026 to expand AI and AWS infrastructure.
Many analysts view the recent sell off as an opportunity, suggesting the stock maybe undervalued relative to its long term potential.
Consensus target price is USD 283.48, an upside potential of 27%.
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Amazon’s decline reflects capex anxiety, not business weakness. The market is reacting to massive AI infrastructure spending, which depresses near-term free cash flow and raises uncertainty about returns. Investors are effectively pricing Amazon as a capital-heavy utility rather than a growth platform.
However, this pattern has occurred before. Amazon historically invests aggressively ahead of demand, builds scale advantages, then monetises later. AWS itself went through this phase before becoming the company’s main profit engine.
Today’s spending positions Amazon at the centre of AI compute, logistics automation, and data-driven commerce. If AI demand scales as expected, early infrastructure builders benefit from operating leverage and strong lock-in.
Near term, volatility may persist until returns become visible. Longer term, the investment cycle could strengthen Amazon’s moat rather than weaken it.