The next major theme looks to be crypto.
Don't believe me...believe the facts.
BTC ATHs were roughly $122K, with recent lows touching around $60K.
-50%. This caught my eye.
The 50% retracement is one of the most watched and historically respected pullback levels in all of technical analysis.
But let's look broader. The past couple weeks, crypto has been noticeably strong, with BTC & ETH basing. Why?
Well, it's a big step in becoming an infrastructure asset.
Look at the other "neutral" reserve assets leading up to & during geopolitical tensions (iran, russia, china):
> gold running
> silver running
> commodities running
...what about $BTC + crypto? It’s the only other neutral, non-politicized global asset that hasn’t participated yet.
Third point. The US gov't has been incredibly vocal about the "golden age of crypto", this is a strong tailwind that requires patience but can be very meaningful.
Four point. Stablecoins are exploding. It's the "plumbing" of the crypto economy. And again, let's look at history.
According to research from kucoincom, "stablecoin supply growth has consistently preceded $BTC price increases during past bull markets".
It's historically led Bitcoin bull runs because:
> liquidity enters via stablecoins
> that liquidity rotates into BTC + ETH
Stablecoin supply is near record highs.
Fifth point. For years, the biggest bear narrative was "governments will ban it", but in the last year:
- ETFs approved
- institutions custody it
- public companies hold it
- sovereign states experimenting w it
Crypto now sits inside traditional portfolio models from $BlackRock(BLK)$ , Fidelity, etc...this did not exist in prior cycles.
Once passed the regulatory legitimacy threshold, $$$ floods in...the internet went through the same phase around 1997–2000.
TL;DR + why now?
1) in strong macro bull cycles, 50% retracements often mark the base before the next expansion leg.
2) macro: zero panic during geopolitical stress
3) structural: institutional demand via ETFs, shrinking supply, expanding stablecoin liquidity
4) neutral reserve asset narrative emerging
And remember, when BTC & ETH start running, many proxies + crypto related stocks rip even more violently.
Some of those names include $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$, crypto miners.
Risk/reward is attractive at the current levels with the recent behavior + well-rounded bull case.
BTC now ~$69K, ETH now ~$2K.
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