What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It?The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling."CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups:Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market.Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality.Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact.Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these funds aim

Gold should not be seen as a standalone asset. On its own, it has no intrinsic value—and naysayers have been banging on this point for years, saying it doesn’t produce cashflow and therefore can’t be valued. Gold’s value is driven by a myriad of factors. The earliest is that it’s perceived as a store of value—and that perception has lasted until today. In other words, gold has value as long as society believes it has value. Otherwise, we could have used anything. Here’s what matters more: gold’s value is relative to alternative stores of value. And in today’s context, the US Dollar is the single most important currency—a store of value and a medium of exchange. That’s why gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with the USD. If the USD weakens, gold rises. And vice versa. To me, t

I. CFTC Positioning Data: Understanding the “Language of Smart Money”Many people focus only on prices, but what truly drives prices is where the money is positioned. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) translates this “language of money” into indicators that ordinary investors can understand. The “soul” of this report lies in two dimensions: who is holding positions, and whether they are long or short.CFTC positioning data classifies participants into three major categories: commercial positions (hedgers), non-commercial positions (speculators/funds), and non-reportable positions (retail traders). Among these, the most critical are non-commercial positions—funds, hedge funds, and large institutions whose objective is prof

Gold will still rise as the alternate currency to USD. If you think the world will demand less of USD then gold price will surely rise 

I won't chase the Gold 🪙 yet instead focus on Energy, it's where the chart 📈 points 😀 I go Strong 💪😅 $ConocoPhillips(COP)$ @Aqa @JC888 @Shyon @Barcode @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @DiAngel

$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$   $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$  Gold hit its former support level turned resistance. Look at the chart it is all technical, it hit its 200 moving average and bounced and not hitting resistance. In the short term it will be heading downwards but in a mid to longer time frame I remain bullish for gold given US will lower interest rates and loosen monetary policy, Trump is request USD 1.5 trillion dollars for their defense budget it is a 40% increase, where do you think that money will come from? It will come in the expense of devaluation of the dollar. In the short term I expect it hitting his 200 day moving average about 4150 - 4200 range before bouncing up again. the

The timeline is the only thing that differs and must be managed carefully if you have inferred here is correct. Especially what comes after that gold rally is a long term bear… but I do agree that a new gold peak might be on the way…

That’s a really good point

[OMG] The “World Bear Day” today turns out to be really scary. While the world of bears is in peril, the global stock markets are also in ‘beary’ scary mode. Traders are all feeling bearish today. My holding of tech stocks and Reits are beaten hard. Most investors would hold on to their portfolio now and hope the Middle East crisis could be eased in a short term. Still holding on to $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ as history proves these two always significantly outperform many other asset classes. Be brave when everyone else is fearful of the bear. Keep some cash to buy the dip. Let’s take on the bear!🐻 Thanks @TigerEvents @TigerStars

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

Hope the worst is over asap. If not, I am seeing my earning profits had been dropping drastically.

The hawkish hold may become hawkish spike.  Yield curve is shifting up, strong for dollar (short term overwhelms debasement), weak for gold.  But Fed's hands are tied, so meaningful rate hikes are almost improbable.  This inflation may not be as transitory as the Covid period, the energy input supply issue is not resolvable within a year.  Gold will therefore be a long term hold. 

Wait for further dip to buy more.

Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

All depends on your strategy. If you plan to rotate will be a good option to sell. If on a longer journey keep as it will always go up

...  .... Nga nga nga nga nga nga

This looks like a headline-driven relief rebound, not yet a clean all-clear. Gold did rebound sharply, with reports tying the move to hopes for diplomacy, lower immediate energy-risk pricing, and softer oil after talk of a possible ceasefire framework. Reuters reported markets were cheered by Trump’s comments about progress with Iran, while Axios reported that U.S. and regional mediators are still waiting for Tehran’s response on possible high-level talks as early as Thursday. Axios also said Iranian officials remain suspicious of the U.S. push, so the diplomatic path is still fragile.  My view: do not treat this bounce as proof the correction is over. When gold rallies mainly because war fears ease, the move can reverse quickly if talks stall, oil spikes again, or Hormuz headlines wo

The script of "Geopolitical Shock - Resurgent Inflation - Forced Liquidation" has played out four times in the last 46 years. The 2026 iteration is distinguished by its unprecedented speed.