Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Apr2026)
Retail Sales Data
The coming week begins with the release of core retail sales figures for March. This data is a crucial indicator, as it reflects consumer sentiment in the market. Observing how consumers are spending provides valuable insight into the broader economic outlook.
Crude Oil Inventories
Another significant factor affecting market sentiment is the crude oil inventories report. Previously, there was a drawdown of approximately 913,000 barrels. If the upcoming report shows a drawdown larger than the forecasted 1,000,000 barrels, it could be considered bullish for the market demand.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 212,000, which represents a slight increase from the previous figure of 207,000. This data point is particularly important, as it serves as a key reference for the Federal Reserve when making decisions regarding future interest rates.
S&P Global Services PMI
The S&P Global Services PMI for April is forecasted at 50.1. This suggests a modest expansion in global services, indicating ongoing growth within this sector.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
For April, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.5. This forecast points to expansionary growth in manufacturing for the month, signalling positive momentum in the industry.
Earnings Calendar (20Apr2026)
Several notable companies are set to report earnings in the coming week. Among these are Intuitive Surgical, United Airlines, 3M, Tesla, Nokia, Boeing, IBM, Dow Chemicals, and Procter & Gamble (P&G). These announcements are expected to provide important insights into their respective industries and may influence market sentiment.
Focus on Dow Chemicals
Dow Chemicals is of particular interest this week. Over the past year, Dow’s stock price has risen by 26.47%, reflecting strong performance. Despite this upward trend, technical analysis currently suggests a “strong sell” recommendation, indicating that the stock may be overvalued or facing near-term challenges.
Meanwhile, analyst sentiment differs, with experts recommending a “buy.” The price target for Dow is set at $39.44, which implies a potential upside of 10.7% from current levels.
Dow Chemicals is currently facing questions regarding its profitability. The company has reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -3.70, which indicates that it is operating at a loss. Additionally, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at -9.7, further highlighting concerns about the company's ability to generate profits in the near term. These negative figures are important indicators for investors, as they suggest that Dow may be experiencing financial challenges despite its recent stock price appreciation and differing analyst recommendations.
Revenue and Profitability Trends
Over the past five years, Dow Chemicals has experienced a notable decline in total revenue. In 2021, the company reported $54.9 billion in revenue, which peaked at $56.9 billion in 2022, marking the highest revenue within this period. However, by 2025, total revenue had decreased significantly to $39.9 billion. This downward trend in revenue is a cause for concern and highlights the challenges the company is currently facing.
The decline in revenue has also impacted the company’s profitability. Gross profit fell from $10.7 billion in 2021 to just $2.4 billion in 2025. Similarly, operating income saw a reduction, dropping from $8.1 billion in 2021 to an operating loss of $61 million in 2025.
Net income followed the same trajectory, decreasing from $6.3 billion in 2021 to a net loss of $2.6 billion in 2025. These figures collectively demonstrate the significant financial headwinds Dow Chemicals is currently encountering, underscoring the importance of upcoming earnings reports in providing further clarity on the company’s outlook.
Balance Sheet Trends
Over the recent years, Dow Chemicals has experienced a decrease in its total assets. In 2021, the company reported total assets of $62.9 billion, which declined to $58.5 billion by 2025. This reduction reflects the broader financial challenges the company is facing. On the liabilities side, total liabilities have also decreased, falling from $44.2 billion in 2021 to $41 billion in 2025. This indicates some progress in managing obligations, even as other financial metrics have weakened.
However, it is important to highlight that the company’s total debt has increased during this period. Total debt rose from $16.1 billion in 2021 to $19.5 billion in 2025. This upward trend in debt, despite the drop in overall liabilities, underscores continuing financial pressures and could present additional challenges for Dow Chemicals as it navigates its current environment.
Cash Flow Trends
Dow Chemicals’ cash flow statements further highlight the company’s ongoing financial challenges. Cash from operations experienced a substantial decline, dropping from $7 billion in 2021 to just $1 billion in 2025. This sharp reduction indicates mounting pressure on the company’s ability to generate operating cash flow.
In addition, levered free cash flow has deteriorated significantly over the same period. In 2021, Dow Chemicals reported levered free cash flow of $4.1 billion. By 2025, this figure had fallen to negative $784 million, reflecting a shift from positive to negative cash generation. This negative levered free cash flow underscores increasing financial strain, raising concerns about the company’s capacity to fund operations and meet financial commitments without external financing.
Dow News in Q1/2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Dow Inc. navigated a transformative period marked by major leadership changes and strategic restructuring. A primary highlight was the appointment of Karen S. Carter as CEO, succeeding Jim Fitterling, who transitioned to Executive Chair in April.
Strategically, Dow launched its “Transform to Outperform” initiative, aiming for a $2 billion near-term Operating EBITDA improvement. This plan involves streamlining operations and modernising customer service through AI and automation, though it also includes the difficult step of cutting approximately 4,500 roles.
Financially, the quarter ended with significant volatility. While analysts anticipated a Q1 earnings beat, the stock faced a sharp 11.6% drop in mid-April. This decline was driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which lowered energy prices and compressed margins for key products like polyethylene. Despite these market pressures, Dow continued its sustainability push, winning a CIO 100 Award for its innovative carbon footprint ledger.
The above news is compiled with the help of Google Gemini.
Earnings Forecast and Investment Considerations
Looking ahead, the earnings forecast for Dow remains concerning. The projected earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.271, while revenue is forecasted at $9.65 billion for the coming period. These figures reflect ongoing financial difficulties and do not present an attractive investment opportunity at this time. Given the current negative EPS and the backdrop of declining profitability, weakened cash flow, and rising debt, it is prudent to hold off on adding Dow Chemicals to the portfolio. Waiting until the company achieves at least break-even performance would provide a more solid foundation for considering an investment.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (20Apr2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.15, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to turn upwards, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200.
Exponential Moving Averages
The exponential moving average (EMA) lines have converged, and a bullish outlook is expected following this confirmation.
Other Technical Analysis
Technical analysis indicates a “strong buy,” with all 20 indicators aligned in favour of a bullish outlook. Notably, no indicators are suggesting a bearish trend. This consensus among technical signals highlights significant upward momentum and a positive market sentiment for the S&P 500 at this time.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The CNN Fear and Greed Index, which gauges prevailing market sentiment, is currently reading 68. This value falls within the “Greed” zone, indicating that investor sentiment is leaning towards optimism and risk-taking.
Weekly Outlook
Based on the above, the S&P500 is expected to be bullish entering into the new week.
News and my thoughts from the past week (20Apr2026)
Trump: "We're raising tariffs very soon" - Unusual Whales
Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet's Google have each recently abandoned construction of multibillion-dollar data centers over community opposition and now the companies are coming under shareholder pressure over the environmental impact of their projects, per Reuters
OpenAI has backed out of the Stargate project in Norway because they couldn’t close the deal - NIK
The delinquency occurred on Apr 1, after Metcold Holdings, a Shanghai-based cold-chain infrastructure service provider, failed to repay the loan’s outstanding principal of US$27.5 million. The unpaid interest is around US$12 million - Business Times
Jason Calacanis warns developers about Sam Altman and OpenAI: “If I were any kind of developer, I would never work with Sam Altman and OpenAI. This is a warning for anybody dumb enough to use Sam Altman’s OpenAI API Sam is an incredibly savvy person, and he wants every bit of revenue from the ecosystem. He's gonna study how you're using the API, which he has the right to do. Sam Altman comes from the Zuckerberg school of business, which is: give people access to your tools, study them, and like the Borg, steal every innovation they create. Exactly like Bill Gates did at Microsoft; they let people build Lotus 1-2-3, and then they did Microsoft Excel. They let people build a product called WordPerfect and WordStar, and then they built Microsoft Word."
My Investing Muse (20Apr2026)
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
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AMAZON JUST NUKED 16,000 CORPORATE WORKERS WHILE ANDY JASSY CASHED $47.3 MILLION AND THE COMPANY ANNOUNCED $50 BILLION IN NEW AI GOVERNMENT CONTRACTS. 16,000 people. Gone. While sitting on $716.9 billion in revenue. - X user Tech Layoff Tracker
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DELL JUST SLAUGHTERED 11,000 ENGINEERS WHILE POSTING $113.5 BILLION IN RECORD REVENUE AND APPROVING A $10 BILLION STOCK BUYBACK TO CELEBRATE THEIR AI SERVER ORDERS. 11,000 people. 10% of their entire fucking workforce. Gone. - X user Tech Layoff Tracker
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TCS JUST BUTCHERED 20,000 ENGINEERS WHILE POSTING $30 BILLION REVENUE AND CALLING IT "AI-DRIVEN TRANSFORMATION". 20,000 people. The largest layoff in Indian tech history. While sitting on record revenue. - X user Tech Layoff Tracker
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Snap is laying off 1,000 employees, 16% of its workforce, after pressure from activist investors. CEO Evan Spiegel cited AI as enabling smaller teams to move faster, noting that 65% of new code is already AI-generated. - X user HedgieThe delinquency occurred on Apr 1, after Metcold Holdings, a Shanghai-based cold-chain infrastructure service provider, failed to repay the loan’s outstanding principal of US$27.5 million. The unpaid interest is around US$12 million
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“SERIOUS EMPLOYMENT CRISIS… entry level tech jobs, and white collar jobs in consulting and finance will be replaced… in 1-5 years. 10-20% unemployment possible”, says CEO of AI company Anthropic. (Fox News)
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Meta to cut 10% of workforce in May, or about 8,000 employees - Reuters
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In Europe, charter airline H-Bird was declared bankrupt by a Swedish judge earlier this month, while Mexican holiday airline Magnicharters just canceled all flights for two weeks in a situation that left hundreds of travelers stranded at popular vacation destinations across the country. - The Street
IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings: Revised Global Growth Outlook
The IMF and World Bank held their spring meetings in Washington, D.C., bringing together global finance leaders to discuss the state of the world economy. One of the key outcomes from the meetings was a downward revision of the global growth forecast to 3.1%. This adjustment was largely attributed to fiscal dominance, as many nations increased their military spending in response to current geopolitical tensions.
AI and Productivity Concerns
Another significant topic raised by the IMF during the meetings was the level of productivity driven by artificial intelligence. Despite substantial corporate investment in AI technologies, the anticipated productivity gains have not been sufficient to cover the economic shocks caused by ongoing global energy and security challenges.
Geopolitical Ceasefire and Market Impacts
Toward the end of the week, there was initial optimism after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and America. However, the Iranian government quickly denounced the agreement, asserting that the United States had not acted honestly regarding its promises. Upon further review, vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited. Although the reduction of further military escalation was viewed as positive news, ongoing concerns persist about the global energy, helium, and fertiliser crises. These issues are expected to continue affecting global markets in the coming days, with several countries likely to report varying impacts related to fuel and energy shortages. Such shortages are anticipated to lead to additional complications, including food shortages, supply chain disruptions, and immediate inflationary pressures for consumers worldwide.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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