Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Apr26)
Consumer sentiment
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence (April): Due next week. The prior reading was 91.8 (lower confidence). This release will be an important gauge of US consumer sentiment and the broader economic outlook.
Growth and demand indicators
Durable Goods Orders: Forecast +0.5%, improving from the prior -1.4%.
Crude oil inventories: A useful reference for near-term demand expectations, as inventory drawdowns can reflect anticipated consumption.
Federal Reserve focus
FOMC rate decision: The market expects the policy rate to be held at 3.75%.
FOMC statement and press conference: Key for guidance on the likely path of future rate decisions.
Leadership transition: Even with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down, the communication this week still matters—any incoming chair will need committee support, and the current messaging helps set expectations.
Inflation and labour market
Core PCE Price Index: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. A surprise reading could increase market volatility and influence expectations for upcoming rate decisions.
Initial Jobless Claims: Another key input for the Fed’s policy outlook. Unexpected results may also drive market volatility.
Manufacturing activity
Chicago PMI (April): Released after the prior reading of 52.8, providing a snapshot of regional manufacturing conditions.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (April): A key national manufacturing indicator.
ISM Manufacturing Prices: A signal of producer-side inflation pressures that may later pass through to consumers.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April): Forecast 54.0, indicating expansion.
Market holiday
Labour Day (1 May): Markets in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore will be closed. We wish everyone a restful holiday, and thank you for your hard work.
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