Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 13Jul2026)
Key Economic Data to Watch
The most closely watched release in the coming week will be the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core CPI is forecast to rise by 0.3% month on month, making it a key indicator for inflation trends and market expectations.
China’s second-quarter GDP will also be announced. With the previous reading at 5.0%, the result will serve as an important gauge of China’s economic momentum and a useful reference point for global consumption trends.
Inflation and Producer Costs
The June Producer Price Index (PPI) will be another important release, with a forecast increase of 0.2%. PPI is a useful leading indicator for consumer inflation because higher producer costs may eventually be passed on to consumers through goods and services.
Energy, Retail, and Manufacturing Indicators
· Crude oil inventories will be released, offering insight into how oil producers and market participants are assessing demand conditions.
· June retail sales and core retail sales will provide an important barometer of consumer spending and broader market sentiment toward the retail sector.
· The July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will indicate whether manufacturing activity is expanding or contracting.
Labour Market Focus
Initial jobless claims will also be updated in the coming week. This data will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve as a key input for assessing labour market conditions ahead of future interest rate decisions.
Earnings Calendar (13Jul2026)
The earnings season starts with the financial institutions with some of the biggest bank giants: Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan. Other key earnings will include BlackRock, Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, United, TSMC and Wise.
The importance of the banking earnings (compiled with help from Grok and Gemini)
The big banks (JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs) kick off earnings season as the ultimate macroeconomic health check. Because they sit at the center of capital flow, their financial results serve two critical functions:
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Main Street Health Check: Metrics like credit card spending, loan delinquencies, and credit loss provisions reveal the true financial stamina and default risks of the American consumer.
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Wall Street Sentiment: Investment banking fees from M&A and IPO pipelines gauge corporate confidence and willingness to take strategic risks, while trading revenue reflects market volatility.
For the banking industry itself, these reports unveil Net Interest Margins (NIM)—showing how effectively banks are profiling profits against changing interest rates and deposit competition. Ultimately, their loosening or tightening of credit availability dictates systemic liquidity, directly steering broader economic expansion or contraction.
For this week, let us look at the earnings of Netflix.
Market View and Valuation
Netflix presents a mixed market picture. Technical analysis currently points to a “strong sell,” while analyst sentiment remains more constructive, with a “buy” recommendation and a price target of $113.15, implying potential upside of 54.21%.
The company trades at a P/E ratio of 23.8, with earnings per share of 3.16.
Peer Comparison (compiled by Gemini and Grok)
Netflix’s main competitors include Disney, which trades at a P/E ratio of around 15.3 to 16.5, and Warner Bros. Discovery, whose earnings profile remains negative or highly volatile. Other peers include Paramount, with a P/E ratio of roughly 8 to 9 for some share classes, and Roku, which trades at around 106.
The broader entertainment and media industry average P/E ratio is typically around 22 to 36, and often closer to 20 to 25 for wider media benchmarks.
Netflix trades at a premium to several peers, supported by strong profitability and continued streaming growth. Disney appears more like a diversified value play, while Warner Bros. Discovery continues to face earnings volatility from legacy television challenges.
Five-Year Financial Performance
Looking at Netflix’s financial performance over the five years from 2021 to 2025, with the financial year ending on 31 December, the company has delivered strong growth across revenue, profitability, and cash generation.
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Total revenue increased from $29.6 billion to $45.1 billion.
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Gross profit rose from $12.3 billion to $21.9 billion.
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Operating income grew from $6.1 billion to $13.3 billion.
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Net income increased from $5.1 billion to $10.98 billion.
The results are encouraging: while annual revenue increased by roughly 50% over five years, net income more than doubled. This suggests that Netflix has maintained effective cost control while continuing to expand at a healthy pace.
Balance Sheet and Debt Position
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Total assets increased from $44.5 billion to $55.5 billion over five years.
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Total liabilities were broadly stable at around $28.8 billion.
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Total equity rose from $15.8 billion to $26.6 billion.
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Total debt declined from $18.1 billion to $16.9 billion.
This demonstrates improved balance sheet strength and disciplined debt management. Further debt reduction would be positive, but the overall trend is constructive.
Cash Flow
Netflix has also shown strong improvement in cash flow, particularly from operations. Operating cash flow rose from $0.392 billion in 2021 to $10.1 billion in 2025.
The company has been paying down debt over the past five years, and its net change in cash has remained positive for the last three years. In 2025, Netflix ended the year with a positive net cash change of $1.2 billion.
Recent Netflix news from Investing
Earnings Forecast
The forecast for the coming earnings is $0.788 and $12.58B for EPS and revenue, respectively.
For now, I prefer to monitor the stock from the side.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (13Jul2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on an uptrend.
Chaikin Money Flow
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.14, indicating the market has more buying momentum than selling.
Moving Averages
Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving averages. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.
Exponential Moving Averages
The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook.
Other Technical Analysis
Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Strong Buy” with all 21 indicators showing a “Buy” rating. No indicators are showing a “Sell” rating.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
With a score of “49”, the CNN’s Fear & Greed index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Neutral”. This is an improvement from the “Fear” sentiment from the previous week.
Weekly Outlook
The bottom crossover of the MACD is complete. Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bullish entering the new week.
News and my thoughts from the past week (13Jul2026)
From X user Katie Miller: OpenAI’s last 24 hours: > Top Exec unexpectedly departs > Shuts down browser tool after 9 months > Sued for trade theft by Apple > Caught selling product to China against sanctions
OpenAI is shutting down Atlas, its standalone AI browser, less than a year after launch. The company announced the deprecation alongside ChatGPT Work, a desktop superapp that folds browser capabilities into the main ChatGPT app. Atlas joins Sora and the shelved adult mode as products OpenAI has quietly walked away from in recent months. - X user Hedgie
A Brown University economics professor made his take-home midterm harder than usual, figuring unlimited time justified it. 86 students enrolled, up from a typical 8 to 30. 40 scored a perfect 100. The historical average runs between 65 and 80. When he announced the final would be in-person, 27 students dropped or no-showed. 22 of them had scored perfect 100s on the midterm. The class average fell from 96 to 48. - X user Hedgie
Amazon is raising at least $25 billion through a bond sale to fund AI infrastructure, three months after borrowing $37 billion. Alphabet raised $85 billion in equity last month and Meta sold $55 billion in bonds over the past year. Big Tech is expected to spend over $700 billion on AI this year. Amazon's bonds have maturities up to 40 years. - X user Hedgie
My Investing Muse (13Jul2026)
Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies
Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report - MacroEdge
Private Equity Warnings
AI Bubble Warnings
The above is a post from X user Kevin Malone, where all 200 of the largest insider traders were SELLS.
The market has warnings. Be it the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble, Private Equity (PE) debt and more, there are more concerns for the market. The market can continue to hit new heights. It is cautionary to hedge.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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