(Part 2 of 4) - Market outlook of S&P500 (20Jul2026)

KYHBKO
07-19

Market Outlook of S&P500 (20Jul2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.16, indicating that the market has more buying momentum than selling momentum.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above 200-day (MA200) moving average but just cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and a probable trend change in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook with crossover in the upcoming days. This suggests a potential reversal in trend.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Neutral” rating with 9 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 10 indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “37”, the CNN’s Fear & Greed index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Fear”. This is a drop from the “Neutral” sentiment from the previous week.

Weekly Outlook

The bottom crossover of the MACD is complete. Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bearish for the new week.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

Inflation Cools but Fed Hawks Divided — July on Hold; Will September Bring a Rate Hike?
Weaker US June CPI and PPI have eased July rate-hike fears. But Fed Chair Warsh called single-month data "imperfect indicators" of underlying inflation and stressed zero tolerance for persistent pressure. Hawkish splits persist: Dallas's Logan wants a "modest hike," while Vice Chair Jefferson backs a pause but warns hikes stay possible if inflation stalls. Futures price ~86% odds of a hold on July 29, yet September-hike odds top 50%. The market isn't trading cuts anymore — it's "pause in July, hike in September." Does tech keep benefiting, or is it time to brace for another hike?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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