🌟🌟🌟I vote $Alibaba(BABA)$ $

🌟🌟🌟I vote $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ will close Flat in the -5% to 5% zone. Alibaba has missed Wall Street's Consensus EPS expectations for 4 consecutive previous quarters. Today's numbers confirm that heavy capital expenditure into AI cloud infrastructure continues to compress immediate profit margins, giving bears plenty of ammunition to cap any explosive surges.

A "Very Red" crash is almost entirely off the table because the underlying top line volumes are exceptionally health. Driven by an uncharacteristically strong double digit revenue expansion and massive domestic excitement surrounding its operating system integrations with $Apple(AAPL)$ , the long term turnaround is undeniably visible.

Alibaba's active buy back program stands at a huge USD 65 billion. This acts as its defence shield. If earnings wobble, management can buy back to support the stock.

Compared to its US peers, Alibaba is undervalued & a great Buy.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

Alibaba Hit Twice — Down 8.6%, Then HK$80 Billion Drained. Are These the Same Story?

Alibaba took two hits with different causes. Earnings first: adjusted net profit −38%, GAAP −75%, the U.S. listing down 8.57%, with JPMorgan still Overweight at a $210 target. Then dilution: an HK$80bn (~$10.2bn) placement outside the U.S. on August 23, its first since the 2019 HK listing, proceeds all to AI. Hong Kong shares fell 10.08% intraday, Tencent −3.72%, Xiaomi −4.41% as funds sold to make room. Against capex +75% and cloud revenue +45%, the dividing line is whether that HK$80bn becomes cloud revenue or depreciation. Buy the dip, or rotate to Tencent, which is not diluting?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

AndrewWalker
08-20
AndrewWalker
The Apple integration angle matters more than people think. From a longer view, that is ecosystem stickiness getting rebuilt while the market keeps staring at margin compression lol
- koolgal:
  You are absolutely right 👍👍👍
- koolgal:
  Best of luck 🍀🍀🍀
- koolgal:
  Happy weekend 🏖️🏖️🏖️
- koolgal:
  May you have a winning week ahead 🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰
fuzzyx
08-20
fuzzyx
That buyback shield sounds weaker than bulls think. Four straight EPS misses plus softer free cash flow makes flat feel generous here
- koolgal:
  Let's see what the new CEO can do for Apple.
- koolgal:
  May you have a winning week ahead 🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰
- koolgal:
  Best of luck 🍀🍀🍀
- koolgal:
  Happy weekend 🏖️🏖️🏖️
- koolgal:
  Yes that is true.

Leave a comment

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Against capex +75% and cloud revenue +45%, the dividing line is whether that HK$80bn becomes cloud revenue or depreciation. Buy the dip, or rotate to Tencent, which is not diluting?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80bd10c1815deb5e7e65e6d7b161bd26"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66922db654303edd8cbd7f65db6e4143"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66922db654303edd8cbd7f65db6e4143"}],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>🌟🌟🌟I vote <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\"> $Alibaba(BABA)$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\"> $BABA-W(09988)$ </a>will close Flat in the -5% to 5% zone.&nbsp; Alibaba has missed Wall Street's Consensus EPS expectations for 4 consecutive previous quarters.&nbsp; Today's numbers confirm that heavy capital expenditure into AI cloud infrastructure continues to compress immediate profit margins, giving bears plenty of ammunition to cap any explosive surges.\n\nA \"Very Red\" crash is almost entirely off the table because the underlying top line volumes are exceptionally health.&nbsp; Driven by an uncharacteristically strong double digit revenue expansion and massive domestic excitement surrounding its operating system integrations with <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\"> $Apple(AAPL)$ </a>, the long term turnaround is undeniably visible.\nAlibaba's active buy back program stands at a huge USD 65 billion.&nbsp; This acts as its defence shield.&nbsp; If earnings wobble, management can buy back to support the stock.\nCompared to its US peers, Alibaba is undervalued &amp; a great Buy.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\"> @Tiger_SG </a><t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66922db654303edd8cbd7f65db6e4143\"></t-t></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>🌟🌟🌟I vote <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\"> $Alibaba(BABA)$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\"> $BABA-W(09988)$ </a>will close Flat in the -5% to 5% zone.&nbsp; Alibaba has missed Wall Street's Consensus EPS expectations for 4 consecutive previous quarters.&nbsp; Today's numbers confirm that heavy capital expenditure into AI cloud infrastructure continues to compress immediate profit margins, giving bears plenty of ammunition to cap any explosive surges.\n\nA \"Very Red\" crash is almost entirely off the table because the underlying top line volumes are exceptionally health.&nbsp; Driven by an uncharacteristically strong double digit revenue expansion and massive domestic excitement surrounding its operating system integrations with <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\"> $Apple(AAPL)$ </a>, the long term turnaround is undeniably visible.\nAlibaba's active buy back program stands at a huge USD 65 billion.&nbsp; This acts as its defence shield.&nbsp; If earnings wobble, management can buy back to support the stock.\nCompared to its US peers, Alibaba is undervalued &amp; a great Buy.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\"> @Tiger_SG </a><t-t type=\"img\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66922db654303edd8cbd7f65db6e4143\"></t-t></body></html>","text":"🌟🌟🌟I vote $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ will close Flat in the -5% to 5% zone. Alibaba has missed Wall Street's Consensus EPS expectations for 4 consecutive previous quarters. Today's numbers confirm that heavy capital expenditure into AI cloud infrastructure continues to compress immediate profit margins, giving bears plenty of ammunition to cap any explosive surges. A \"Very Red\" crash is almost entirely off the table because the underlying top line volumes are exceptionally health. Driven by an uncharacteristically strong double digit revenue expansion and massive domestic excitement surrounding its operating system integrations with $Apple(AAPL)$ , the long term turnaround is undeniably visible. Alibaba's active buy back program stands at a huge USD 65 billion. This acts as its defence shield. If earnings wobble, management can buy back to support the stock. 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From a longer view, that is ecosystem stickiness getting rebuilt while the market keeps staring at margin compression lol","text":"The Apple integration angle matters more than people think. From a longer view, that is ecosystem stickiness getting rebuilt while the market keeps staring at margin compression lol","html":"The Apple integration angle matters more than people think. From a longer view, that is ecosystem stickiness getting rebuilt while the market keeps staring at margin compression lol","likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"subComments":[{"id":599480512263008,"commentId":"599480512263008","gmtCreate":1787399197135,"gmtModify":1787399484579,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2-1","templateUuid":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2","name":"Monthly Top Contributor","description":"Top 3 Contributors with the most and best Editor's Picks every 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🍀🍀🍀","disclaimerType":0},{"id":599480256418000,"commentId":"599480256418000","gmtCreate":1787399211833,"gmtModify":1787399483258,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2-1","templateUuid":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2","name":"Monthly Top Contributor","description":"Top 3 Contributors with the most and best Editor's Picks every 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