Markets caught their breath on low volume – $S&P 500(.SPX)$ +0.4%, but still down -1.4% for the week, snapping a 3‑week win streak. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ gave back -2.1%.
But don't let the calm fool you. Next week is absolutely stacked:
Treasury
-
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings – Wednesday after the close.
-
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech – Friday.
-
GDP, PCE inflation, consumer sentiment, and a slew of tech earnings ( $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ , CrowdStrike, Marvell).
This is the week that could set the tone for September.
Nvidia: From $6.7B to $92B – But Can It Still Move the Needle?
Nvidia
Four years ago (pre‑ChatGPT), Nvidia’s Q2 revenue was $6.7 billion. Next week, analysts expect $92 billion– a 13× increase.
Over that period, shares are up +1,149% vs. +85% for the S&P 500.
-
The stock is cheaper by historical standards.
-
The catch? Law of large numbers.
With a $5.2 trillion market cap, even a beat may not spark the usual fireworks. In recent quarters, share gains have slowed, even as revenue continues to climb.
And Then There’s Warsh – The New Fed Chair Under the Microscope
Fed
Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell in May, makes his Jackson Hole debut Friday. He’s signalled he wants to frame the "big questions" – inflation, productivity, demographics, global shocks.
But here’s the blunt take from former Philly Fed President Patrick Harker: “Warsh is going to have to address the elephant in the room, which is inflation. He’s got to actually say more than ‘we’re in the fight.’ That’s not going to fly. If that’s going to be his approach, it’s going to really be a disappointment to the markets.”
The Rest of the Lineup – Don’t Look Away
-
Tech earnings: Salesforce, $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ , Marvell – all reporting.
-
Economic data:
Tuesday; Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) .
Thursday; GDP (second estimate) . Friday; PCE inflation (key for Fed) + University of Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations .
Tech earnings have driven half of the S&P 500’s expected $740 billion in Q2 profits, per LSEG. So if tech stumbles, the whole market feels it.
The Debate We Want to Have – 3 Questions for the TTM Community
1. Who moves markets more next week – Nvidia or the Fed?
- Is it all about AI momentum and earnings?
- Or does Warsh’s tone on inflation carry more weight?
2. Can Nvidia still surprise, or is the bar too high?
- If they beat but guide soft, does the stock drop 5%?
- Or is that a "buy the dip" opportunity?
3. Are we due for a deeper pullback after the summer rally?
- Or is this just a healthy pause before the next leg up?
Sound off in the comments.
If you found this analysis valuable, Like, Repost, and Follow for more market insights and investment discussions.
This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
[Salute]
Comments