How Long Do Stock Market Corrections Last?

A: Short term, these two weeks

As we all know, US stocks often pull back during Chinese holidays, which is an old tradition. However, given the current put and sell call layouts, the callbacks are fairly short. Because from the temporary large single layout, bears do not intend to be bearish for a long time, and almost earn a time value and leave.

Apple:

The large order I shared last week can be seen that the institutions are around the July 7 expiration date layout. After all, the non-farm data released on July 7 and the CPI released on July 12, from Powell's attitude, he particularly hopes that the market will cash in the expectation of adding 50 basis points on this day or 12th. So the bulls are understandably subdued.

So the question is, what's going on with the $AAPL 20230707 195.0 PUT$ ?

From the trading direction and trading price of Tiger pc, it can be concluded that Apple is not less than 195 before July 7.

But the problem is the bid-ask spread.

Determine whether an option is a buy or a sell, depending on the price bias. Options are less liquid than stocks, so there is a bid-ask spread, and the worse the liquidity, the wider the bid-ask spread. Biased ask price High price is buying, biased bid price low price is selling. Software usually uses this logic to show whether options are bullish or bearish.

Generally no problem, whatever the label says.

But sometimes liquidity is too poor, when the amount of pending orders is huge, the pending order price will become the buying and selling price itself. This time needs to be judged according to the bid-ask spread, if the software shows the bid-ask spread range is less than the normal spread range, then this is the case.

Return to this option $AAPL 20230707 195.0 PUT$ , click in will find that this option liquidity is average, the spread is above 0.7. As shown in the figure, the spread of 9.6-9.45=0.15 is obviously smaller than the normal spread, so I tend to occupy the purchase price of the pending order, and this big order is actually a put.

But don't panic too much, this option basically only left the in-price value, the leverage effect is small, basically equivalent to the stock short. No leverage means that the correction is not worth betting on the value of time, and it is estimated that it will fall to about 180.

$Microsoft(MSFT)$

sell $MSFT 20230915 345.0 CALL$

buy $MSFT 20231020 385.0 CALL$

This is not really a portfolio strategy, the trader sold 345 due September and bought 385 due October.

AMD：

sell $AMD 20230630 118.0 CALL$

This is the beginning of the layout is more short, more conservative bearish, applies to all stocks in the last two weeks.

The degree of differentiation of China concept stocks is relatively large.

sell $JD 20230714 41.0 CALL$

buy $PDD 20230630 76.0 CALL$

buy $BABA 20230818 100.0 CALL$

sell $BABA 20230818 120.0 CALL$

Finally, a small stock transaction we haven't talked about in a long time, a payment card issuing platform. Traders deliberately hide this trade, the volume is scattered so it is not a large single move, but the total volume is high, which feels a little unusual.

$MQ 20250117 15.0 CALL$