First, the views of all sectors of the market on agricultural products
At the weekend, I discussed the current market situation of agricultural products with large domestic oil index enterprises. Fundamentally speaking, when the price rises to the present level, everyone is a little confused. The confused place is that all the favorable conditions have been put in front of us, and the production reduction and future demand are clear, but after all, the price is already at a high level,How much space there is for spot traders in the future. In addition to the known planting cost and profit rate, and in addition to thinking that it is still optimistic for a long time, there is not much tendency in the short-term and medium-term direction.As far as financial capital is concerned, holding commodities at present is a passive investment to hoard goods and fight inflation. Even stocks with hundreds of times the market value can be held. Why can't we hold commodities without premium? Therefore, from this perspective, the agricultural product market is still a relatively chaotic bullish market, with high volatility in the majority.
There will be a gradual process for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and reduce its table to suppress inflation, and the price response of agricultural products to this part of policies is often the slowest. Therefore, it is difficult to short agricultural products (there is a short-term decline, but that is a better opportunity to do long) when there are still weather speculation expectations.
Second, the technical position of agricultural products
1. American beans
Since the planting area report in March, the price trend has been stronger than expected. If the high point in March is broken (07 contract, 1700), it can only continue to chase up. If it is not broken, it can be bearish until May/June, but the bearish range is really uncertain.
As for bullish words, how much can American beans reach? Let's just say, Without the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, There is no example of soaring crude oil prices, and US beans are very sad at 1800. However, as various commodities have been forced to position sharply one after another, such as nickel, crude oil, wheat, etc., it is not impossible for US beans to have a wave of forced positions as long as the weather news cooperates. The best state is that US beans can have a sharp correction and then continue to do more.
2. American corn
The best wheat market has ended, and the follow-up is tossing, so it is not recommended that everyone pay more attention. On the contrary, we should look more at American corn. The fundamentals of corn are better than those of American beans. Due to the sharp rise in fertilizer prices, the fertilizer consumption of corn is more than three times that of American beans, so the support of planting cost is stronger, and it is the first choice to do more at this stage.
Of course, my suggestion is still to do more callbacks. As for whether there can be a sharp callback, this is really inevitable, and it needs some clear negative events. At present, such events are not within the predictable range, so I can only give some suggestions on the technical position.
First of all, which contract is cheaper to do, this is the way to teach everyone to do more agricultural products all the way. Technically, there is no other way to chase up at present. If there is a callback, it will be tracked by the May moving average, and if it is in place, it will bargain-hunting. The range of the high point is still around 800 first, and then it depends on the news change.
$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2206(NQmain)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2203(YMmain)$ $Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$ $Corn - main 2205(ZCmain)$ $Soybeans - main 2205(ZSmain)$
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