Preface:After the Freeport incident in the United States, another natural gas plant accident occurred in the United States, which has caused no casualties at present. After the accident, the domestic natural gas supply in the United States is expected to decrease, which drives up the price of natural gas (HH) in Port Henry. In Europe, due to the continuous maintenance of Beixi No.1 and the reduction of gas transmission capacity of other Russian gas pipelines to Europe, the westward supply of Russian natural gas has dropped sharply; The Norwegian gas field is affected by strikes and failures, and its output is declining. The future supply of natural gas in Europe is tight.
I. Summary of International Natural Gas Market
Market profile
As of July 12, the US natural gas futures price was 6.163 US dollars/million British heat, up 0.64 US dollars/million British heat from the previous cycle (7.5), an increase of 11.59%; Dutch natural gas futures price was USD 50.587/million British heat, up USD 0.757/million British heat or 1.52% from the previous cycle (7.5).
On the American side, An accident at ONEOK natural gas plant near Medford, Oklahoma, USA, Its fractionation facilities stopped working, and ONEOK's fractionation plant was responsible for separating natural gas liquid into related widely used products, such as ethane, propane, butane and natural gas, which were mainly used in petrochemical plants and power plants, as well as food and vehicle fuel.
The accident had a great impact on downstream users of natural gas in the United States. In addition, the natural gas from the plant will be transported to Montbellevue on the Gulf Coast through the Texas pipeline, and the natural gas export may be affected to some extent, which will push up the natural gas price in the United States.
On the European side, following the U.S. freeport accident, LNG imports have declined, Russia constantly overhauls the westbound natural gas pipeline, The supply of natural gas in Europe has been declining.
Recently, Nord Stream No.1 entered the overhaul period again. An accident occurred in Sleipner gas field in Norway, which led to the production reduction of the gas field. At the same time, the power outage also affected two natural gas plants in Norway, resulting in a decline in imports from two receiving stations in Britain and Belgium, and TTF prices in Europe remained high for a long time.
As of July 12th, the spot price of natural gas in the United States was USD 6.76/million British heat, up USD 1.03/million British heat from the previous month (7.5), or 17.98%. The spot price of natural gas in Canada was USD 3.319/million British heat, down USD 0.661/million British heat or 16.61% from the previous month (7.5).
The price of natural gas in North America is polarized, the price of natural gas in the United States is rising due to the failure of domestic factories, and the overall demand in Canada is declining, which makes it difficult for prices to form favorable support.
At present, the prices of major consumer places are mixed. The prices in Northeast Asia are rising due to the price difference in Europe, but the actual transactions are small. The prices in Europe are always high due to the reduction of overall natural gas supply.
Chart 1: International natural gas market price
Inventory
In the week ending July 1, according to the US Energy Agency report, the US natural gas inventory was 2,311 billion cubic feet, an increase of 60 billion cubic feet from the previous month, an increase of 2.6%; Inventories were 261 billion cubic feet lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 10.1%; It is 322 billion cubic feet lower than the five-year average, a decrease of 12.2%.
As of the week of July 1, according to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, the European natural gas inventory was 2,229.251 billion cubic feet, up 91.842 billion cubic feet from the previous month, an increase of 4.32%; Inventories were 408.534 billion cubic feet higher than the same period last year, an increase of 22.56%.
In this cycle, the US Treasury continued to increase slightly, while the inventory growth rate in Europe was stable. However, due to the weakening of supply, the future inventory status was worrying.
Chart 2: International natural gas inventory trend
International price forecast
Due to repeated epidemics in China, the rising trend of international spot prices in Northeast Asia has weakened, and the market is expected to keep running smoothly.
TTF futures prices remain in the upward range this week. Recently, due to Canada's agreement to return the stranded turbines of Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 1 is expected to resume work, and TTF prices may turn from rising to falling next week.
The price of natural gas futures in the United States is on the rise, the domestic supply in the United States suddenly decreases, and the market price of natural gas has risen. The price of natural gas in the United States is expected to remain high in the future.
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