Since April 19, the USD/CNH has changed the sideways trend near 6.38 since mid-April and began to break through the important mark of 6.41 for four consecutive days. It is also the first time that the USD/CNH has touched the level of 6.49 since August 16th, 2021.
USD/CNH DAILY
As of April 22, Tiger Trade $CME USD/CNH - main 2206(UCHmain)$ priced at 6.523，$Mini China Enterprises Index - main 2204(MCHmain)$ priced at 6.509.
The three short-term trigger factors of the market consensus are: ① breakthrough of key points, ② strong US dollar and ③ foreign exchange purchase in the middle of the month.
① Breakthrough of key points: 6.40 is not only an important integer mark of USD/CNH , but also an important position of the 200 moving average. The breakthrough of this point means the end of the previous sideways situation, which may trigger a round of betting on the opening of a wave band of USD/CNH at the transaction level;
② Strong US dollar: Recently, with the further strengthening of the Fed's expectation of rate hikes, the US dollar index continued to rise since entering April. In the 15 working days since April, the US dollar index rose for 13 working days, becoming the strongest currency since April. Driven by the strong US dollar index, major Asian currencies, including the YEN, the WON and theSingapore dollar, fell against the US dollar, and the USD/CNH was affected;
③ Foreign exchange purchase in the middle of April: historical experience shows that the period of foreign exchange purchase by importers is concentrated in the period from the 15th to the 20th of the April. Recently, with the high level of energy prices, the amount of foreign exchange purchased by importers has increased. The foreign exchange purchasing offer of importers such as energy may be the driving factor driving the change of short-term USD/CNH.
Medium-term depreciation trend factors:
Joe Perry, senior analyst of Jiasheng group, believes that with the gradual resumption of production and acceptance of export orders in other emerging market countries in Asia since 2022, the substitution effect of China's export benefits last year may also be weakened. It is expected that China's current account surplus will narrow to about US $200 billion this year.
The narrowing or even upside down of interest rate spread caused by the differentiation of China US economic fundamentals and monetary policies is difficult to reverse quickly. The pressure of international capital outflow and USD/CNH depreciation will still exist, and the low point of the previous round of USD/CNH was about 7.1.
In 2022, the growth rate of China's exports will probably slow down, the "high fever" of US inflation will not subside, and the Fed will accelerate the pace of interest rate hike and table contraction, which may lead to the rapid outflow of cross-border capital from emerging market economies. It is expected that the USD/CNH will further release the pressure of depreciation in 2022, while Throughout the year, the US dollar index will rise and fall.
How to trade the USD/CNH Trend?
If you are interested in Currencies movements. you can turn to $HKEX USD/CNH - main 2206(CNHmain)$, $Mini HKEX USD/CNH - main 2205(MCNHmain)$ ,$CME USD/CNH - main 2206(UCHmain)$ , $SGX USD/CNH - main 2206(UCmain)$for profit making references.
Notes: Please Left Enough Deposit in Your Account,
If you buy a mini contract of the Hong Kong stock exchange, the current margin is about 2000 yuan, which is relatively low. However, it cannot be ruled out that the US dollar will fluctuate more against the RMB in the later period. If you want to buy a CME USD/CNH futures contract, you need put at least $5,000~8,000 spare funds in your account.
If the account margin is small, do not hold futures overnight. Generally, do intra day trading, that is, when the balance drops the position, because the overnight fluctuation is relatively large.
Do remember Be alert to risks. Futures risks are unlimited. It's not just losing the amount you buy but you are ready for all losses.
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