Two kinds of contracts in the futures market are waiting to break out

Just after the meeting of the Federal Reserve on interest rates, on the first day of August, the world began to make trouble again.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, No. 3 in the United States, has begun a trip to Asia that will focus on whether she will set foot in the TW region. she has not returned to the United States for one day, and her trip is still full of various variables. If she dares to set foot on TW, it will inevitably cause a strong reaction from China, which will lead to great uncertainty in the financial market.

If there is friction, it is bound to cause the war mood in the market like the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in March, and I am afraid it will be a new round of pulse market of commodities. Although this possibility is unlikely, everyone needs to be prepared.

First, the sensitive moment of crude oil

There is no doubt that if there is a local war, it will only add fuel to the current oil price; However, if there is no accidental fire, the OPEC + meeting on August 3rd this week will become very important. After all, it is the first meeting since Biden's visit to the Middle East. Will Saudi Arabia put forward an additional production increase plan alone as in 2021? If so, the oil price will usher in periodic bad news.

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​Technically, WTI oil price is still in the fluctuation range of annual line and semi-annual line. It can be expected that if the news is unclear, the oil price will still run in this range until a certain news detonates.

Therefore, strategically, the oil price is still unable to judge whether it is long or short, but it can be expected to break through the range and the price will accelerate, so everyone should be patient.

Second, agricultural products

In the last week of July, American beans ushered in Big bounce, and it was extremely strong without a day in the whole week.

There are two reasons. One is that the drought in North America leads to the opening of market weather operations; The second is to increase the emotional premium brought by the uncertainty of military conflict when Pelosi visited Asia.

I have emphasized to you before that 7-9 is the key time for soybean speculation, which is greatly influenced by weather news. If the weather is bad, the price will soar. As soon as the weather improves, the price will immediately return to its original shape. The difficulty of trading lies in following, not predicting.

At this time, everyone can track the stop loss with the 20-day moving average. In addition, at this stage, everyone should pay attention to the excellent planting rate data released on Monday night, and the market will speculate on the market in the coming week according to this data, which is an important report for short-term tracking.​​

​III. Precious Metals

Gold showed a strong rebound near 1680, which was in line with the resonance trend of news and technology. And where is the current rebound pressure? Here are two angles for your reference.Assuming that gold continues to fluctuate in the range for a long time, it is difficult for gold prices to improve greatly when the Federal Reserve does not really relax its interest rate hike.(Unless there is another war), there will be a shock around 1680-1780 in the short term.

Another angle is that according to the trend line that the gold price has fallen below before, the support level will become a pressure level, which is around 1800, so whether 1800 can break through and stand firm will be the key position for the gold price to go bullish again.​​

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