$PayPal(PYPL)$ Paypal(PYPL) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this technology platform and digital payments company have returned -9.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -9.1% change. The Zacks Internet - Software industry, to which Paypal belongs, has lost 11.1% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Paypal is expected to post earnings of $0.95 per share, indicating a change of -14.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.2% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.93 points to a change of -14.6% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +0.9%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $4.72 indicates a change of +19.9% from what Paypal is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.5%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Paypal is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
12-month consensus EPS estimate for PYPL _12MonthEPSChartUrl
Revenue Growth Forecast
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For Paypal, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $6.84 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +10.6%. For the current and next fiscal years, $27.91 billion and $31.56 billion estimates indicate +10% and +13.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Paypal reported revenues of $6.81 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +9.1%. EPS of $0.93 for the same period compares with $1.15 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.76 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.71%. The EPS surprise was +9.41%.
Over the last four quarters, Paypal surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
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