$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$looks like since my last post, consensus on oil has finally shifted post Jackson hole speech.

9 days ago, there was no talk of waning china demand, opec increasing production etc. 

UBS in fact predicted $125 oil in the coming months. 

At the same time UBS predicted recession risk of 60%.

Citibank predicts oil at $70 by 2024 on the basis of recession.

I am going with abt about $80 to $83 based on the argument that:

1. sanctions against Russia oil has effectively failed

2. Russia ability to circumvent sanctions means supply is close to prewar.

3. Energy demand has definitely been increasing but Russia is forced to sell at a cheaper price.

4. Iran supply may hit markets in 6 months time.

Higher baseline interest rates but no recession.