We find ourselves in a dismal equity market. Bond prices are falling. Even REITs leverage limits are shaky. I have reviewed some S-Reit current leverage. I am concerned. If valuation falls and interest rate rise, what then? The regulatory limit may be triggered. We are finally close to the edge. Perhaps a recovery is near. What should an intreprid investor do? What is the best way if one wish to bet on recovery? My thesis: short the USD and long commodities currencies. More directly, long commodities. Please note that while i am invested, these bets are risky. Currency and commodities future have ruin many. Consider the thesis at your own risk. $Canadian Dollar - Dec 2023(CAD2312)$
CL2302 (WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023)
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The US crude oil inventory was expecting a -2.243 million (drop) in inventory but instead saw an increase of 18.962 million. This meant that much lesser crude oil was consumed in anticipation of the market demand. This is bearish as it meant that manufacturers expected a much lower demand. $WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$
Trading commodities and currencies
Trading commodities and currencies
Where is price of Oil headed in 2023? HSI back in bull market
The energy sector was the top performer for the stock market in 2022, which perhaps also helped to protect the draw down of the S&P 500 (down around 19%) vs the Nasdaq composite (down more than 30%). The relative one-year performance of the energy sector was 31%, while the other sectors all gave negative returns in 2022, with technology, consumer discretionary and communication services suffering a drawdown of more than 35%. Sector performance 6 months and one year US Oil headed for $65? US Oil Daily Interestingly, the price of US Oil has been on a constant downtrend since its peak in June. In July and August, it failed to break above the 50 daily moving average, while in early October and November, it created a double top at $92, trapping any bulls on oil, before breaking below the 50
Where is price of Oil headed in 2023? HSI back in bull market
$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$time to close for me. Probably regret it on Monday. But the risk is great that Putin may complain abt price capGood luck
$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$looks like since my last post, consensus on oil has finally shifted post Jackson hole speech.9 days ago, there was no talk of waning china demand, opec increasing production etc. UBS in fact predicted $125 oil in the coming months. At the same time UBS predicted recession risk of 60%.Citibank predicts oil at $70 by 2024 on the basis of recession.I am going with abt about $80 to $83 based on the argument that:1. sanctions against Russia oil has effectively failed2. Russia ability to circumvent sanctions means supply is close to prewar.3. Energy demand has definitely been increasing but Russia is forced to sell at a cheaper price.4. Iran supply may hit markets in 6 months time.Higher baseline interest