5 mins quick post June is here, and my thesis from Jan is still wrong But I changed my mind in March (Like i said in my March post) The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$   maintains strength Commodity currencies are down. The Canadian loonie weak. $Canadian Dollar - main 2212(CADmain)$   The price of wheat has dropped a lot.  $Wheat - Dec 2023(ZW2312)$   Despite possible El Niño weather. I didnt dare to bet due to conflicting views.  Hindsight 20/20 Will my Jan thesis continue to be wrong Or will it reverse So far seems like same old same old 2% inflation still a myth Personally, it was a good month. Mitsubishi Electric,

How to be wrong and still make a profit and a new thesis forMarch In my last post (1/6), i had a thesis to short the USD. $USD/CAD(USDCAD.FOREX)$  $Canadian Dollar - Jun 2023(CAD2306)$    Dollar currency index was at 103.879 and today at 103.88. Basically, 6 weeks and USD has remained the same. There was tremendous volatility. Lucky i was right for about 4 weeks and took 3k off the table. (See photos) The markets have now priced in higher interest rates. I personally find that shocking but i have always lost money when i am overly optimistic. So i was lucky this time around.  There is also an off chance that interest rates may have to go even higher than wall street has pr

$Garmin(GRMN)$ The last week has been good for short sellers. However, the question then comes, when to take profit. The typical loss making day trader hold losses for too long. And takes profit too quickly. For me, i keep longs very long, whether up or down. I kept NVAX for 2yrs plus. I also kept TFI and RMC for 2 yrs plus. Some good, some terrifying. For short positions, I struggle. I tend to take profits early and ride losses longer.  This is a mistake because logically, any good short thesis is by its very nature not immediately obvious. Profit generating should take abt 6 to 8 months. So i need to pray for the strength to avoid the temptation to take profits here.

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$worse than expected

$Garmin(GRMN)$i perform badly when i buy stocks i like.I am down (on other platforms) [Cry]  ~20k from $Novavax(NVAX)$ ~4k from Creative Technologies,~4k from $Aurinia Pharmaceuticals(AUPH)$~2k from polish gaming company CD Ptojekt Red~4k from Starbucks[Cry] I also have an outsized negative position in ONON (on tiger)[Cry] I still sleep well.Because only abt 5% of my investments are in such shares.This is not a tale about why diversification is profitable.Instead, it is a lesson as old as time, that love leads to ruin.So while I am a longtime Garmin user, the Apple watch is going to prove a real challenge for Garmin.Ap

$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$time to close for me. Probably regret it on Monday. But the risk is great that Putin may complain abt price capGood luck

$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$looks like since my last post, consensus on oil has finally shifted post Jackson hole speech.9 days ago, there was no talk of waning china demand, opec increasing production etc. UBS in fact predicted $125 oil in the coming months. At the same time UBS predicted recession risk of 60%.Citibank predicts oil at $70 by 2024 on the basis of recession.I am going with abt about $80 to $83 based on the argument that:1. sanctions against Russia oil has effectively failed2. Russia ability to circumvent sanctions means supply is close to prewar.3. Energy demand has definitely been increasing but Russia is forced to sell at a cheaper price.4. Iran supply may hit markets in 6 months time.Higher baseline interest

$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$ going against consensus and assuming upcoming deflation issss painful

$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$Close in October. 

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$i exited my shorts at abt 48 but now long at 52. Why?Because when i tried to increase my short position, lending was unavailable. This means that coin is ripe for short squeeze regardless of fundamentals...

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$4 days in a row....Another article abt how the real issue is a greedy business model that is no longer sustainable:https://www.axios.com/2022/06/30/crypto-bear-bad-ugly

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$interesting take:https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2022/05/31/jim-chanos-predicts-coinbase-stock-will-plunge/amp/

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ it is interesting to follow how a business which used to charge premium prices to retail customers  (400 bps/4% as commission) adapt when competitors stop charging fees?  Will it cost structures hold up? Can it be competitive? Will it lose customers? Will it become a cautionary tale?  https://decrypt.co/103483/binance-us-eliminating-fees-on-bitcoin-trades 

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ article on how to delete your coinbase account: www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2022/06/delete-a-coinbase-account/amp/

$PJSC Lukoil(LUKOY)$lol

$Plug Power(PLUG)$short selling Plug because of the advent of stable lithium sulphur technology...