SPX - Pending FED decision...

Content of this article: LAST SESSION - WEEK EVENTS-MARKET SCENARIO-SPX LEVELS-AGENDA

SUMMARY

• After a tightly controlled session, the stock indices ended a hopeless week with slim gains on Friday.

SPX Under control

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $DJIA(.DJI)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ all rose 0.1%. All three ended the week in balance.

WEEK EVENTS

Nothing very crisp if not the mixed results of big companies. $American Express(AXP)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$

• See the brief review Here

MARKET SCENARIO

• A lack of conviction among investors... Fears of a recession would weigh on the market...

Investors would still worry about the health of the economy, if it does not lead to a hard recession.

The strongest finding from the latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that only 27% of investors say they are optimistic about the outlook for equities. 37% say they are neutral, while the other respondents, 35%, place themselves in the bearish camp.

AAII

The same configuration would be found on the side of professional investors.

We could see a battle between falling earnings [and] a subdued interest rate picture as the Fed nears the end of rate hikes...

• But perhaps it would be dangerous to bet this year on a more "dove" Fed...

Cleveland Fed Chair Loretta Mester, usually among the more hawkish policymakers, said she favored rates above 5% because inflation was still too high. Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker had a similar message.

Barmoter tool is now showing an 84% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the May 3rd meeting, relatively unchanged from yesterday but up from 67% a week ago and 39% a month ago.

Important Notes:

• Bonds would remain the managers' priority due to the juicy yields currently on offer.

• The average manager forecast is for gold to hit a record high within a year at $2,106 an ounce, down from $2,007 previously. last week.

• The rise in the equity market would be mainly due to large caps...

SPX LEVELS

• SPX's trend channel from the SBV lows remains fully intact. 4200 is the next big resistance to watch.

Please find below the levels selected:

• Key levels: 4000 - 4150

• Upper zone: 4150-4175 with 4200 in major resistance

• Lower Zone: 4100-4050 and 4000 in major support

SPX Levels

AGENDA

• In Europe, the German Ifo business climate index (Monday) and the first estimate of German inflation for April (Friday).

• United States, the Conference Board consumer confidence index (Tuesday), durable goods orders (Wednesday) and the first estimate of US GDP for Q1 2023 (Thursday). On Friday, PCE inflation and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index.

• The Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision on Friday.

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