To The Moon

Content of the article: SUMMRY-MARKET SCENARIO-SPX LEVELS

SUMMARY

Weak economic data and disappointing earnings results dragged stocks lower on Thursday.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.6%. Only one of the index's 11 sectors, consumer staples, ended the day in positive territory.

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ index fell 0.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped about 0.3%, its third straight trading day of losses.

• Fears of a recession would weigh on the market...

Investors would still worry about the health of the economy, if it does not lead to a hard recession.

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey was weaker than expected, coming in at minus 31.3 in April, from minus 23.2 in March.

First-time jobless claims soared to 245,000.

As for results publications, they remain mixed.

$American Express(AXP)$ Braces 'For Credit Cardholder Debt Troubles, Even As Revenue Hits Record High'

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shares had a tougher time on Thursday, falling 10%.

$Netflix(NFLX)$ reported first-quarter results in line with estimates, but offered a slightly disappointing second-quarter outlook.

MARKET SCENARIO

The banks are doing well, and would avoid the banking crisis

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)

Traders settled on the idea of a quarter-point rate hike next month, and earnings were good overall.

The U.S. economy has stagnated in recent weeks, with slowing hiring and inflation and shrinking access to credit, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. It may add to concerns that the economy is slipping into recession and likely bolsters the odds that Fed policymakers will pause their round of interest rate hikes after an expected quarter-point increase at the next rally in May. .

• Perhaps it would be dangerous to bet this year on a more "dove" Fed...

Cleveland Fed Chair Loretta Mester, usually among the more hawkish policymakers, said she favored rates above 5% because inflation was still too high. Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker had a similar message.

Barmoter tool is now showing an 84% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the May 3rd meeting, relatively unchanged from yesterday but up from 67% a week ago and 39% a month ago.

Treasury yields, meanwhile, fell amid investor worries about the economy. The 10-year Treasury yield, which partly reflects sentiment on inflation and economic growth, closed at 3.546% on Thursday, down 5.5 basis points on the day.

SPX LEVELS

• SPX's trend channel from the SBV lows remains fully intact. 4200 is the next big resistance to watch. It would be more difficult to go up than to go down, given the gamma context.

Please find below the levels selected:

• Key levels: 4000 - 4150

• Upper zone: 4150-4175 with 4200 in major resistance

• Lower Zone: 4100-4050 and 4000 in major support

SPX Levels

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@TigerStars @CaptainTiger