1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VIX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 19.76%, down from 20.21% last week.
This can be translated in +/- 2.74% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 4188
BOT: 3965
The probability to break this channel(akathe close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
82% with the last 20 years of data
71% with data since 2022
However, if we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VIX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
84% according to the last 20 years of data
79% according to the data since 2022
Overall we can see an increase in the probability chance, and at the same time more accurate with the current events.
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
80% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -13%Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: +80%Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +66%Bullish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
2.85% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
2.47% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
2.$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VXN we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 25.01%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 3.47% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 12640
BOT: 11788
The probability to break this channel(akathe close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of theVXN( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
84% according to the last 20 years of data
100% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 87% instead)
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
78% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: +53%Bullish Trend
D Timeframe: +66%Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: -26%Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
3.37% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
3.4% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
3.DAX Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from VDAX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 18.97%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 2.63% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 15466
BOT: 14673
The probability to break this channel(akathe close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
79% with the last 20 years of data
89% with data since 2022
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
73% to touch the previous weekly high
26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -13%Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: +66%Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +80%Bullish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
1.87% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
2.37% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
4.$Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2303(MCLmain)$ Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from OVX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at40.5%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 5.62% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 84.54
BOT: 75.54
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the OVX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
74% according to the last 20 years of data
50% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 72% instead)
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
31.5% to touch the previous weekly high
66% to touch the previous weekly low(already hit)
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -26%Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: 0%Bearish Trend
W Timeframe: -53%Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
4.65% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
5.6% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
5.$E-Micro Gold - main 2304(MGCmain)$ Gold Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from GVZ we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 16.64%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 2.31% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 1972
BOT: 1883
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of th GVZ( from 0 to 21) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
78% according to the last 20 years of data
75% according to the data since 2022
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
70% to touch the previous weekly high
30% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: +60%Bullish Trend
D Timeframe: +78%Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +78%Bullish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
1.62% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
1.68% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
6.BTCUSD Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from DVOL, we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 58.03%, down from 64.38% last week.
This can be translated in +/- 8.05% movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 25655
BOT: 21833
The probability to break this channel(akathe close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at 78%(80% since 2022)
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
70% to touch the previous weekly high
27% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: +26%Bullish Trend
D Timeframe: +80%Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: 0%bullish/bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
4.6% from the open candle for the bullish scenario
7.24 from the open candle for the bearish scenario
7.ETH Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from DVOL, we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 58.03%, down from 64.38% last week.
This can be translated in +/- 8.05% movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 1777
BOT: 1513
The probability to break this channel(akathe close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at 65%(60% since 2022)
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
63% to touch the previous weekly high
25% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -40%Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: +66%Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: -26%Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
9.2% from the open candle for the bullish scenario
10.5% from the open candle for the bearish scenario
8.EUR/USD Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 
Based on the data from EVZ we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 9.05%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 1.26% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 1.10
BOT: 1.073
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of theEVZ( from 0 to 25) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
74% according to the last 20 years of data
67% according to the data since 2022
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
30% to touch the previous weekly high
70% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: +93%Bullish Trend
D Timeframe: +93%Bullish Trend
W Timeframe: +40%Bullish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
1.081% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
0.966% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GOLD/CXGLPWRO-Gold-Weekly-Forecast-30-Jan-3-Feb-2023/
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