Last Friday (January 31), gold and silver $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2603(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ suffered a historic crash—leaving countless traders wondering: Is this a golden “buy-the-dip” opportunity, or just the beginning of a deeper sell-off? Especially now that gold has started rebounding over the past couple of days, FOMO is kicking in hard. $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$ $富兰克林黄金及贵金属基金A (acc)USD(LU0496367417.USD)$ But i

After the sharp sell-off, the question weighing on many people right now is: can we buy the dip in gold and silver? If we do, are we looking at a short-term rebound—or a true reversal that resumes a longer-term uptrend? Let me start with the conclusion. In my view, the current rise in gold and silver should be treated only as a short-term rebound. Before prices rebound beyond a certain level, we should be extremely cautious: assume there will still be a C-wave selloff, and when the rebound peaks and shows signs of turning down, try again to build short positions. If the market keeps rising and moves above the entry level for the short, then stop out immediately. In short, before the market forms a clear bottoming structure, and before the risk event of Wash taking over as Fed Chair is defi

First, I want to share a screenshot from my previous analysis of silver and gold price action. In that earlier piece, I said silver’s short-term top—assuming the Fed did not turn more hawkish and there was no black-swan surge in the U.S. dollar—should be above 130, while gold could be headed above 5,000. A little over a week later, silver has already printed a new high, and gold has also surged well past 5,000. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

If there’s one clear focus in the futures market recently, it’s undoubtedly silver.But today, let’s take a step back from silver and zoom out for a broader perspective: Does the recent surge in gold and silver signal the start of a bull market in base metals? There’s a well-known commodity cycle that combines the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock with Jeremy Grantham’s concept of the “commodity supercycle launch sequence.” It goes like this: The early warning sign that an economic downturn is ending is a rise in gold and silver prices. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ Why? Because during late-stage slowdowns, real demand is weak and industrial commodities languish—so capital flows into safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the same time, central banks w

Earlier this Tuesday, a U.S. financial journalist asked President Donald Trump a question that has broadly worried Wall Street: “Are you concerned about the recent decline in the U.S. dollar?” Trump’s response surprised the market: he said no, he thought it was great, and that the dollar should be allowed to find its own level because that is “fair”—adding that if you look at China and Japan, they always want their currencies to depreciate. In market reporting, bullion rose as much as 1.3% on Wednesday after jumping 3.4% the day before (its biggest one-day gain since April), and Trump said he was not concerned about a weaker dollar even as the world’s premier reserve currency slid to its weakest level in nearly four years. This statement clearly reads as tacit approval—or even welcome—for

The U.S. dollar has been unusually weak recently, and multiple signs suggest this choppy weakness may persist for a while longer. The real turning point is likely to fall somewhere between March and April this year. First, China’s official USD/CNY fixing was set around 6.9 today—previously it had been in the 7-handle. This is the strongest official RMB fixing since 2023, and with the official rate now back below 7, it indicates the dollar has indeed remained weak lately. The central bank apparently does not see a problem with setting the fixing this strong。 $USD/CNH(USDCNH.FOREX)$ Second, Bloomberg reported that India again sold a large amount of U.S. Treasuries over the most recent month. India’s U.S. Treasury holdings have now fallen to

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

After a week of consolidation, gold $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ brushed off the “risk” of the FOMC rate decision and surged to a fresh record high on Monday night, reaching as high as $3,688/oz. The key question now: when will this rally peak? The answer depends largely on what is driving this move — and who is buying. Understanding these factors helps us determine where we are in the gold cycle. Short-Term Drivers The recent rally is not hard to explain. The main short-term catalysts are: Pricing in a September Fed rate cut Uncertainty around Trump’s policies and tariffs Falling U.S. Treasury yields Geopolitical risk premium Inflation hedging Among these, the September rate cut expectation and policy/tariff uncertainty under Trump are the mo

Gold on track for an inflow of $80 Billion this year, the largest in history. $Gold - main 2508(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2508(MGCmain)$ ImageSo far in this year, $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ etf has outperformed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ a large amount or %. On pace for its best year since 1979.ImageUS Gold ETF assets under management have surpassed $190 billion for the first time in history. The value of gold ETF assets has skyrocketed by ~$100 billion over the last 2 years. Furthermore, assets in the most popular gold fund, $GLD, have recently crossed above $100 billion for the first time in history. In fact, gol