Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

After a week of consolidation, gold $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ brushed off the “risk” of the FOMC rate decision and surged to a fresh record high on Monday night, reaching as high as $3,688/oz. The key question now: when will this rally peak? The answer depends largely on what is driving this move — and who is buying. Understanding these factors helps us determine where we are in the gold cycle. Short-Term Drivers The recent rally is not hard to explain. The main short-term catalysts are: Pricing in a September Fed rate cut Uncertainty around Trump’s policies and tariffs Falling U.S. Treasury yields Geopolitical risk premium Inflation hedging Among these, the September rate cut expectation and policy/tariff uncertainty under Trump are the mo

Gold on track for an inflow of $80 Billion this year, the largest in history. $Gold - main 2508(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2508(MGCmain)$ ImageSo far in this year, $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ etf has outperformed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ a large amount or %. On pace for its best year since 1979.ImageUS Gold ETF assets under management have surpassed $190 billion for the first time in history. The value of gold ETF assets has skyrocketed by ~$100 billion over the last 2 years. Furthermore, assets in the most popular gold fund, $GLD, have recently crossed above $100 billion for the first time in history. In fact, gol

Recently, our futures trading section welcomed a new contract member: $1-Ounce Gold - main 2508(1OZmain)$ . Like $Gold - main 2508(GCmain)$ and $E-Micro Gold - main 2508(MGCmain)$, it is also a futures product under the CME Group. The 1OZ gold contract requires lower margin and is more flexible.If you want to find it, simply search for $1-Ounce Gold - main 2508(1OZmain)$ in the app and add to your watchlist.How is the 1OZ gold futures contract different from the ones we already know?1. Smaller contract size, lower margin requirement — making gold futures more accessibleThe Gold (GC) futures contract si

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $Gold - main 2508(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2508(MGCmain)$ ⚠️🪙🌍 Gold’s Meteoric Rise: A Hedge Against Uncertainty or Overhyped Safe Haven? 🌍🪙⚠️ As markets wrestle with another surge of geopolitical and economic turbulence, gold has reclaimed its spotlight, shimmering under the strain of global unrest. This week’s jump to $3,398 per ounce, up 2% on Monday alone, stems from a sharp escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and President Trump’s fresh threat to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. In times like these, gold isn’t merely a line item on a balance sheet, it transforms into a barometer of global stabili

Gold has been on an impressive rally since the beginning of 2025, surging to new all-time highs and drawing increasing attention from investors. The price has risen by 9% this year alone, and on Wednesday, it even touched a historic peak of $2,900 per ounce. As of now, gold is trading around $2,880, continuing to spark investor interest. But is this the right time to invest? What is driving this surge in gold prices, and what gold-related assets should investors consider? Let’s find the answers in this article.The Drivers Behind Gold's Price SurgeThe recent spike in gold prices isn’t a coincidence. Several factors are contributing to the precious metal’s ascent:US-China Trade Tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China have led to increased uncertainty in the global econom

The main events affecting international $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2024(MGC2412)$ prices in 2024 included expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which spurred continuous gold purchases by central banks globally; geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, Israel-Lebanon, and Israel-Gaza, which drove safe-haven gold prices higher; an unexpected 50BP rate cut by the Fed in September, which initiated a second round of gold price increases for 2024; and after the US elections, economic uncertainty decreased, causing gold prices to retreat.1. The specific moves of gold in 2024 can be divided into the following stages:Early January to February (Volatile Phas

$DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2408(MGCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2407(CLmain)$ Equity IndicesYTD ReturnDow Jones2.58%S&P50011.27%NASDAQ13.34%MSCI – Europe3.56%MSCI–Emerging2.83%Bonds 2yr Treasury4.87%10yr Treasury4.5%10yr Municipal3.11%U.S. C

$Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ rises to $1957, a 4-week high, amid rising geopolitical risks which spur safe-haven demand for the precious metal.How will gold prices move later?BullishEdward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.If the geopolitical situation gets gloomier, there is a good chance that gold prices could go to the $2,000 levels this year.BearishThe rising trend in gold prices is fueled by conflicts. If disputes eases, gold prices may decrease and presents an opportunity for investors.Plus, the rally leaves two gap in the k-chart. The gap may be filled in the later decline. How to trade gold?1) Invest in gold etf $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ or futures