U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

Holding positions over this weekend is becoming a dangerous gamble Last week's rebound in risk assets was a flash in the pan, with equities and other long positions facing a renewed wave of downward pressure. As Trump's April 6 ultimatum approaches, the Middle East will soon deliver a short-term answer—whether it's a diplomatic agreement or a massive military deployment. Most assets are expected to choose their direction by late this week or early next, and investors must be particularly hyper-aware of the gap risks heading into the weekend. If the situation remains unresolved by Friday's close, holding positions over the weekend becomes incredibly risky.   $NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $SP500指数主连 260

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

This week, the crude oil market and gold-silver prices have both seen heavy volatility. Gold plunged sharply, effectively wiping out three months of gains. As for the reason behind the move, some people say Trump is once again talking too much and “drawing candlesticks with his mouth,” but today let’s dig into the data and take a closer look. Let’s start with the COT data released by the CFTC, and we’ll also go through The Flow Show data. First, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show? In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading futures contracts. The rules are standardized by the exchange, including contract size, quality, delivery month, and delivery location, and then the clearinghouse handles centralized clea

Gold sold off sharply again this morning, extending the daily chart to nine consecutive down days. Even though oil is still trading below $100, other risk assets are already starting to wobble. Looking at the broader market action, there may still be downside risks that have not been fully priced in. It may not be time to panic yet, but a more defensive stance and readiness to exit are becoming increasingly necessary. It was somewhat surprising to see gold fail to hold its previous major trading range, especially since this latest leg lower came with almost no resistance at all. From a strategy perspective, one short and one long trade still ended up producing a profit overall, but the high-volatility range-trading logic has clearly broken down. The move to fresh lows not only opens up a n

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

Futures traders, come on over. Today we’re continuing our look at the COT data released by the CFTC.In previous sessions, I also added some off-exchange flow data for context, such as ETF fund-flow data. Today, we’re not just covering the CFTC numbers; we’ll also go through The Flow Show data.Before we begin, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show?In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading standardized futures contracts. The exchange sets the rules, including contract size, quality specifications, delivery month, and delivery location, and the clearinghouse handles centralized clearing. ETFs, which most people are familiar with, are also exchange-traded instruments, so they belong to the on-exchange market rath

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6–3 to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariff policy, ruling that it exceeded presidential authority. Because the decision had been widely anticipated, the market reaction was relatively muted, and U.S. equity indices even rebounded. However, Trump quickly voiced his dissatisfaction and announced a 15% global tariff (up from 10%) while launching a new investigation, stating, “We will be able to levy tariffs—more tariffs.” Since the additional tariff measures were announced over the weekend, Monday becomes the first real test of how sensitive the market is to this news. Overall, the tariff hike is a modest negative for U.S. equity indices, but for gold and silver it may serve as a catalyst for a renewed upswing. Will higher tariffs

Ahead of the holiday, I told everyone to temporarily consider taking profits on bullish positions in the U.S. equity market, and to look at building small long put option positions once the S&P moved below its 20-week moving average; alternatively, you could try buying VIX-long exposure on dips, using the VIX 20-day moving average as the stop level. From what we’ve seen so far, the VIX-long position should already be profitable： $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Volatility Index - main 2603(VIXmain)$ My strategy remains un