Last night's midterm elections were not in line with the previous forecast of "red wave".
The Democrats showed great resilience in the House, Senate and governor's races. Although the election is not over yet, the Democrats have shown a huge advantage in being able to get this result in a hyperinflationary environment.
House of Representatives
It was originally predicted that the Republicans would easily get 40 more votes than the Democrats, but now it looks like the Republicans will only win narrowly in the House.
Based on the results of the real-time voting, the
The New York Times' prediction system believes that the Republicans will only win by 13 votes in the end.
NBC predicts the Republicans will win by only 5 votes, almost stepping over the line.
Some commentators say that this is not a red wave, nor a red ripple, but a red whisper.
But we can not underestimate the 5-13 votes. The Republican Party will control the House with this narrow advantage, and Kevin McCarthy will become the new House Speaker.
Senate
The elections are key in 5 states. To learn more about it, you can click the previous article: Trump's DWAC rose 66% - Why will Republicans win the Midterm?
1) The Democrats currently won New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Both parties see Pennsylvania as the key to the general election. The state has recently welcomed three presidents: Biden, Obama, and Trump. Therefore, the Democratic Party's success in Pennsylvania has greatly boosted the confidence.
From the Pennsylvania election results, the Democrats have a big advantage.
2) The results of other 3 states are not clear: Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
From the current voting, the Democratic party has a 0.9% advantage in Georgia, a 6% advantage in Arizona, Republican has a 3% advantage in Nevada.
If the final result remains to be the current vote, then Democrats 50 vs Republicans 50 means Democrats will control the Senate.
The vote count is not over yet, and the Republicans still have a chance to win. The two parties who can take 2 of the 3 states will control the Senate.
What happens if two parties govern the congress?
George Smith, portfolio strategist at LPL Financial, said
Markets don’t react well to uncertainly so political gridlock is normally a favorable outcome as new measures from the administration are thwarted by the opposing party.
(Source: LPL Research)
US stocks rose nearly 15% on average in the 12 months following the midterm elections.
Kenny Polcari, partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said
markets will rise on a Republican victory. The stock market will rise even more if the two parties split the two chambers.
What stocks to buy after midterm?
The stocks that held by more than one party/senators are highlighted in yellow.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ vanguard total market index etf $VTI(VTI)$ $Walt Disney(DIS)$
Comments
It is going to be a nail biting finish for the US Mid Term election results. While it is expected that the Republicans will win the House of Representatives, it is too close to call for the Senate. My preference would be for the Republicans to win the House, while the Democrats to win the Senate. That way, there is a cross check and more equal balance of power.
Thanks @Tiger_Comments for your excellent update on the latest results of the Midterm Elections.