To The Moon

Investors are eyeing the outcome of the Midterm elections on 8 Nov.

As the stock market fell more than 20%, investors are looking forward a real rally after the election.

With a Democrat in the White House, the best market performance has come when Republicans held either the House, Senate or both.

1. Trump May Run for 2024- DWAC Surges 66%

This midterm election is arguably more important than any other year, as Donald Trump (Republicans) may announce on November 14 whether he will run in the 2024 US election.

It is said Trump will announce his campaign decision on his own platform. After this news, $Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$ rose 66%

Trump is waiting November 14 mainly because he wants to see the public opinion in the midterm elections.

If the Republicans win this midterm election, then Trump will announce his candidacy for 2024;

if the Republicans lose this midterm election, then Trump will not announce his candidacy for 2024.

2. Why will the Republicans win this midterm election?

The new eletoral districts and the Senate election system both favor the Republican Party.

House of Representatives

All 435 US House seats are up for re-election. Historically, it is common for the party of president to lose the House of Representatives after 2 years in office.

• Two years after Trump took office, the Republicans lost the House in 2018
• Two years after Obama took office, the Democrats lost the House in 2010.
• Two years after Clinton took office, the Democrats lost the House in 1994.

In each of these midterm elections the president's party lost more than 40 seats. So, this time, the Democratic Party is likely to lose the House of Representatives.

The Democrats may also lose 40 seats. Due to the huge advantage, the news that the Republicans control the House of Representatives can be confirmed later Tuesday. The so-called "RED wave" will appear.

Photo from the business standard

Senate

The situation in Senate is now 50 to 50.

As mentioned above, the Democrats are likely to lose the House of Representatives, so the Democrats' focus is on the Senate election.

1) 5 Focuses of the two parties

The number of seats to be reelected this time is 35, but both parties are competing for are 5 states: (the color are used for better identifying the party)

Arizona (Democrat controlled), Nevada (Democrat controlled), Georgia (Democrat controlled), New Hampshire (Democrat controlled), and Pennsylvania (Republican controlled).

Photo from the washington post

2) Tiger Analyst believe the results of the race in 5 states could be...

• Nevada (Democrat-controlled) is not favorable for Democrats, 50.06% vs.Trump's 47.67%. In my opinion, the Republicans should win Nevada.

Trump supporters in Nevada are very loyal and the Republican candidate is endorsed by Trump.

• Georgia (Democrat-controlled) also looks bad for the Democrats, 49.47% vs. Trump's 49.24%. In my opinion, the Republicans win Georgia.

The Republicans put up an African-American candidate in this election, which should be the first time in Georgia's history that an African-American candidate represents both parties.

• New Hampshire (Democrat-controlled) is mixed for Democratic. In my opinion, Democrats had a tough time winning New Hampshire.

New Hampshire has a 7% advantage over Biden in the 2020 election. But the polls in this election show that it will be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to hold the state.

• Arizona (Democrat-controlled) is probably the most hotly contested state. In my opinion, the Republicans won Arizona.

The state's Democratic senator was originally an astronaut, so he has more charisma than other career politicians. However, Arizona is historically a conservative state, and it's historical for Biden winning it in 2020.

• Pennsylvania (Republican-controlled) is the state where both parties are putting the most effort. In my opinion, the Republicans won Pennsylvania.

Biden and Obama both go there to campaign for Democratic candidates and Trump goes to campaign for Republican candidates, and Pennsylvania has made history by welcoming three current and former U.S. presidents in the last few days.

3) The result of both parties could be...

compiled by tiger_chat

A: The worst scenario for the Republicans  would be to lose Pennsylvania (Republican-controlled) and not win any of the four Democratic seats. Then the Senate would be 51:49, with the Democrats continuing to control the Senate. But given the reality of public opinion right now, this situation will not happen.

B: The best scenario for the Democrats is to keep Arizona.

4) Summary

In the five swing state, Democrats may only be able to hold one seat; the Republicans will not only hold their Pennsylvania, but also win three Democratic states.

The two parties in the Senate would end up with 53 Republican seats vs 47 Democratic seats.

To learn more about the midterm and the investing opportunities, you can click

• Midterm Election Coming - Will Fed Pivot and Santa Rally Begin?
• Mid-term Election Effects to Stocks, Dollar, Bonds & Gold

Do you think the Republicans will win the Midterm election?

Are you bullish on Trump's company - DWAC?

Will the santa rally begin after Midterm election?

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