Debt ceiling settled! What will it do to the market?

Asphen
2023-05-28

SPY - Keep an eye on QQQ! It will influence how SPY goes!

- Reached ~421 on Friday rally

- 2nd breakout above 416 in recent weeks

- Area of balance remains between 405 to 416

- False breakouts and back into 405/416 range will just mean a head fake

- 30mins chart see a possible inverse basing/cup

- Debt ceiling deal done (just) may give a last push rally on Tuesday?

- But "might" pullback after that

- But as usual, do not predict, watch price action. ==> So any pullbacks to 416 will be my key watch

My watch

- 416 as a support level for pullbacks - Can still be a bull flag formation

- Breaking back into 405/416 range will then watch for 414, 409, 405 levels

- Mainly 409 as that is the full formation of the inverse cup

Good luck, all

Reminder - Observe, React, DO NOT predict!

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NASDAQ - Key one to watch as it will bring the market further up or down

- Bull flag plays has been consistent and is exactly at the peak (348/349)

- Big gap between 331 and 338

- Pullbacks will be 332 (gap fill) and down to 321 previous breakout)

Why this is important?

- Tech has been driving this market rally so far

- Any major pullback will mean an overall market correction

- This will also mean S&P500 will come down

My Watch

- Debt ceiling deal reached will bring some cheer (but rally unlikely to sustain)

- Buy on rumours and sell on news applies

@Deposit  @melson  @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @LMSunshine  

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How will Debt-Ceiling issue affect stock market?
President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have announced they have agreed in principle to raise the US debt ceiling and avert a default. For the market, reaching a debt ceiling agreement may mean the start of a new round of liquidity shocks, ------- How will the raised debt ceiling affect stocks market? What's your trading plan?
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Comments

  • LMSunshine
    2023-05-28
    LMSunshine
    I see thanks loads for the explanations❣️ What’s a vertical move? So best to sell asap on Tue and lock in profits once there starts to be a sell-off?
    • LMSunshineReplyAgxm: 
      Agree…seen many times before
    • Agxm: 
      Very hard to say. Sometime when pre market drop alot but it will bounce back in post market. But in other time when pre market drop, it will further drop in post market.
    • LMSunshineReplyAsphen: 
      Got it, thanks loads❣️
    • Asphen: 
      you got to make your own call on that. mate. I'm not a trade advisor. haha...
      I'm a technical analyst. 😉
      if I see tapering on Tuesday, means it is going back down and i see if it goes to 409. 😉
    • Asphen: 
      vertical move is a parabolic price action....means straight up.
      irrational move.
  • ChrisColeman
    2023-05-29
    ChrisColeman

    The market is a cruel mistress. Questioning her sanity is like asking the rain man how much a candy bar costs.

  • WendyDelia
    2023-05-29
    WendyDelia

    When the details of this "deal" come out, look out below!

  • melson
    2023-05-28
    melson
    buy on rumor sell on news, maybe will crash on tuesday
    • Asphen: 
      v possible... might rally first 30mins then bull trap n reverse 😀
  • LMSunshine
    2023-05-28
    LMSunshine
    Thanks Buddy❣️ Why do you think rally unlikely to sustain?
    • Asphen: 
      I'm still bullish long term. but pullbacks are good.
    • Asphen: 
      3. Vertical moves usually means a big correction (and that's seen in QQQ and quite a few counters)
      4. Many indicators are pointing to a temporary end (5 waves, bull flags etc)
    • Asphen: 
      1. because debt ceiling has been more or less decided. The signing of the agreement would lead to sell on fact.
      2. most of the tech counters are on exhaustion price action, a pullback is required in order for any continued moves. How deep the pullback is, depends on bulls and bears.
  • Pinarelli
    2023-05-29
    Pinarelli

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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