The U.S. stock market has rebounded strongly since last week, when Fed officials warned that interest rate hikes would be slowed down.
Will this week's Fed meeting on interest rates and non-agricultural data further benefit the market?
The focus of the current Fed meeting in November is not on how much to raise interest rates, but on the wording of officials and how much to increase in the future. At present, no one in the market believes that the Fed will dare to sacrifice the economy to raise interest rates to 6% (some economists have calculated the interest rate level needed to suppress inflation).
If the non-agricultural data continues to improve and the stock market is not bad, it will be difficult to stop raising interest rates continuously, Therefore, the fluctuation back and forth is huge.
Pressure position of US stock index
A long time ago, I asked my friends to pay attention to the changes of the Dow. Because the Dow is the first among many stock indexes to strengthen, it shows that raising interest rates has no impact on the large traditional companies in the Dow.
Driven by the Dow, the S&P's decline will be limited.Therefore, the strong support of 3600 points that has been emphasized all the time is likely to be the lowest point this year.
This is not about the valuation of listed companies, but about the change of capital preference. As well as the concern about the Nasdaq's bubble squeezing and revaluation process under the interest rate hike cycle, it is difficult to reverse before the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is over, so it is time for investment to focus on traditional industries, and Buffett's vision is still very unique.
As for the pressure position of S&P, it is around 4100 points. Since the stock index has risen sharply in the past two weeks, in view of the fact that S&P has rebounded by about 600 points in a wave, calculated at the lowest level of 3500, it will rebound by 600 points to about 4100 points.
And so many heavy news next week, any one may make the market think that the benefits are exhausted and make a substantial adjustment, pay attention to the rhythm.
Gold ushered in an important short-term direction choice
Next week's meeting on interest rates is likely to decide the path of raising interest rates in the future, so for interest rate-sensitive commodities such as gold, the fluctuation is usually not small.
In view of the weak trend of gold last week, the probability of downward breakthrough has greatly increased. However, if the price of gold can't rebound on Monday, then gold will set a record of falling for seven consecutive months. After falling again, things may turn against each other, and there will be a sharp rebound like US stocks.
Strategically, you may wait for the interest rate report to see the news before intervening. If friends with options can directly buy options to boost the high volatility of gold, there will be unexpected gains.
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