Your morning bite. Looking ahead to the RBA Info meeting.
Stocks:
Wall Street slipped with the S&P500 falling 0.75%. The index finished October 8% higher. Energy stocks ended higher but whipsawed on plans from the Biden administration to tax "windfall” profits. The sector was the only to finish higher for the session. Tech stocks underperformed with the NASDAQ down 1.2%. SPI Futures are pointing to a 10 point gamefor the ASX200 this morning. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$
Rates/bonds:
Yields crept higher, with the Us 10 year up 3 basis points to 4.05%. A lack of data and the Fed's blackout period made for relatively subdued trade.However, futures pricing is implying a Fed Funds Rate that peaks above 5%. Focus shifts to the RBA today. Market pricing is implying a probable 25 basis point move. Westpac is calling a 50 basis point hike, while the other three members of the Big Four are sticking to 25.
FX:
The US Dollar rebounded. The Dollar Index pushed 0.8% higher. The Euro fell 0.8% andinto the 0.9800 handle. The GBPUSD slipped 1.2% and into the 1.14 handle as markets shuffle ahead of the Fed and BOE meetings on Thursday. The Australian Dollar traded relatively flat, but continues to face headwinds from rate differentials, mixed sentiment and as ofter iron ore price. $Australian Dollar - Dec 2022(AUD2212)$
Commodities:
Oil prices declined around 2%. Brent Crude is fetching just below $US95 per barrel. Gold prices were also down by 0.5%. Wheat prices also jumped after Russia recommenced its blockade of Ukrainian ports, stoking concerns about food inflation and insecurity. $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2212(MCLmain)$
Crypto:
Bitcoin prices slipped but remains above $uS20,000.
My wild, totally tongue-in-cheek forecast: #RBA goes 40. It takes the cash rate to a round 3%. It's still a step down from 50s. But responds to CPI surprise. $($aud)$
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