The story of a strong dollar continues. After a brief correction, the US dollar index has risen again in the past two weeks, only one step away from breaking through the previous high.
Under the strong dollar environment, risky assets began to come under comprehensive pressure. At present, we need to focus on the performance of oil prices. Crude oil bottomed out last week. Once oil prices fall again, stock indexes and other varieties may face more downside space.
The dollar has no rivals
Although I have said it many times, I still want to emphasize once again that the strengthening of the US dollar is unstoppable and the trend of winning numbers. In terms of monetary policy, the United States is ahead of Europe and Japan, which ensures the weak pattern of its main rivals. Coupled with the uncertainty of the European continent, the dollar is a natural winner.
Another very important point is that unlike the past environment, under the current surge, strong currencies export inflation to the outside world.This explains why the United States is happy to see such a performance of the US dollar. However, after the US dollar strengthened several times in the past, it was suppressed by the so-called "overvaluation"/"overvaluation" of the US Treasury or the Federal Reserve.
From the market point of view, consistent with our speculation on the last live broadcast, the rebound of the euro came to an abrupt end, and the US dollar ended this round of correction with a strong correction. With a new high expected this week, wider space is waiting for the dollar.
US stocks have rebounded to the end, paying attention to oil performance
The U.S. stock index fell back for two consecutive weeks, especially last week's bald shade, which basically announced that the rebound market has ended. The resistance in the core pressure area still ensures that the overall trend is in the hands of bears.
Interestingly, gold acts as the leading indicator of S&P-the weakness before gold is superimposed on the performance of oil prices, which implies the inevitable outcome of US stocks.
S&P is blocked at the standard position of the downtrend line, but there are still opportunities for seesaw and shock. Unless there is unexpected news that can push the stock price to quickly fall below the low level of the year, there is no need to worry too much, but it is very difficult to return to the bull market.
Similar to the previous judgment, we are still paying close attention to the performance of oil prices. Oil prices have been relatively strong in the past two weeks driven by various news, and there are signs of stabilization in the short term.This must be a good phenomenon for risky assets.
The competition around 92/93 is the main attraction of the next wave of oil prices. It is expected that the change of demand side will become a key factor affecting the trend of oil price in the future. If it falls below the low level around 85, it will indicate that oil price and risky assets will go down in an all-round way. Oil prices need to go back above 102 at least to be relatively stable.
Finally, talk about gold. After 1800, it fell back quickly, and most of it rebounded in just two weeks, while silver's performance was even more sluggish. The decoupling from the US dollar and the binding of US stocks indicate the prospects of gold and silver. Unless gold can follow the fluctuation of the US dollar, don't easily consider bargain hunting or long-term long-term long-term.
$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2209(NQmain)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2209(YMmain)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2209(ESmain)$ $Gold - main 2212(GCmain)$ $Light Crude Oil - main 2210(CLmain)$
Comments