How Do You Tell When a Market Armageddon Is Coming?

For most investors, the biggest question during a market downturn is when to bottom-fish. Buy too early, and your nerves can’t handle it; buy too late, and you miss the bottom. Either way, you end up making no money. The declines so far don’t seem to match the levels seen in April. How do you judge if a full-blown market crash has really arrived? What indicators help you pick the bottom?

avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-28

(Part 1 of 5) - Economic Calendar for week starting 29Dec25

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 29Dec25) New Year’s Day Closures In the upcoming week, several major financial markets will observe closures in celebration of New Year’s Day. The United States, Singapore, Hong Kong, and China will be closed on January 1st. Additionally, China will extend its holiday and remain closed on both January 1st and January 2nd. In Hong Kong, the market will have a half-day session on December 31st before closing for the holiday. Crude Oil Inventories and Market Outlook It is anticipated that there will be a drawdown of 2 million barrels in crude oil inventories. This reduction suggests an increase in demand at the production site, which may be interpreted as a positive signal for the market outlook. Upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes The Federal Open Mark
(Part 1 of 5) - Economic Calendar for week starting 29Dec25
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-28

Preview of the week starting 29Dec25 - How to find great companies?

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 29Dec25) New Year’s Day Closures In the upcoming week, several major financial markets will observe closures in celebration of New Year’s Day. The United States, Singapore, Hong Kong, and China will be closed on January 1st. Additionally, China will extend its holiday and remain closed on both January 1st and January 2nd. In Hong Kong, the market will have a half-day session on December 31st before closing for the holiday. Crude Oil Inventories and Market Outlook It is anticipated that there will be a drawdown of 2 million barrels in crude oil inventories. This reduction suggests an increase in demand at the production site, which may be interpreted as a positive signal for the market outlook. Upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes The Federal Open Mark
Preview of the week starting 29Dec25 - How to find great companies?
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-21

News and my thoughts (22Dec25) - real estate, electricity & shadow banking

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Dec25) More than $61 billion has flowed into the data center market so far this year. Hyperscalers are increasingly turning to outside capital in the form of debt to fund the energy-intensive infrastructure. S&P Global expects demand to continue to grow next year, despite high valuations and funding concerns leaving investor worried about a bubble. - CNBC JAPAN TO SELL $530 BILLION OF U.S. STOCKS TO STABILIZE THE ECONOMY. JGB 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 2%, HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE DOT-COM BUBBLE IN 1999. BEARISH NEWS FOR GLOBAL MARKETS. - X user OxNobler Morgan Stanley declares the end of the US recession and eyes early-cycle gains in 2026 - The Edge Singapore China now has a record 3.75 terawatts of power generation capacity. That capacity has dou
News and my thoughts (22Dec25) - real estate, electricity & shadow banking
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-21

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar - PCE, CB, GDP (22Dec25)

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 22Dec25) In the coming week, several countries will be observing Christmas. In the United States, there will be an early market closure beginning on 24 December to mark the occasion. Christmas Day, 25 December, will be celebrated in America, Singapore, and Hong Kong, with all three regions observing the holiday. Additionally, Hong Kong will remain closed for an extra day on 26 December in recognition of the extended holiday period. On the other hand, China will not have any public holidays during this week and normal operations are expected to continue there. Federal Reserve’s Preferred Inflation Measure: PCE The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, is scheduled for release
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar - PCE, CB, GDP (22Dec25)
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-14

(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (15Dec25) - layoffs, debts & deficits

My Investing Muse (15Dec25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news The number of company insolvencies in Germany are set to reach 23,900 in 2025, the most in 11 YEARS, according to credit agency Creditreform. This would mark the 5th consecutive annual increase. German economy is struggling. - X user Global Markets Investor Wells Fargo LAYOFFS! They finally said AI isn’t ‘efficiency’... it’s headcount reduction. A pattern is forming you guys!!!! “We’re going to have lower headcount in the future.” CEO, Charlie Scharf. This is after shrinking from 275,000 down to 210,000 employees since 2019… and now they’re warning the next round is coming this quarter. - X user Amanda Goodall We’ve now knocked 9,500 truck drivers out of service for failing to speak our national language — ENGLISH! - Secret
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (15Dec25) - layoffs, debts & deficits
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-14

(Part 4 of 5) - Market news and my thoughts (15Dec25)

News and my thoughts from the past week (15Dec25) McDonald’s removed its AI-generated Christmas commercial after it went viral for being terrible. - X user HedgieMarket. Not every AI product is good and tasteful. I think it’s part of what I call the AI Dunning-Kruger effect. The people excited to use AI aren’t equipped to judge its outputs. Those who are equipped tend not to use it. - X user David V Stewart. EVERY TIME JAPAN HIKES RATES, BITCOIN DUMPS 20–25%. NEXT WEEK, THEY WILL HIKE RATES TO 75 BPS AGAIN. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS, $BTC WILL DUMP BELOW $70,000 ON DECEMBER 19. POSITION ACCORDINGLY. - X user OxNobler. Crypto whale ‘James Wynn’ says a major crash is coming and longs will be “annihilated.” - X user Bitcoin Junkies We have been informed about earthquakes, famines,
(Part 4 of 5) - Market news and my thoughts (15Dec25)
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-14

(Part 1 of 5) - Economic Calendar (15Dec25) - PCE, CPI, Global PMI hits the news

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 15Dec25) Labour Market and Federal Reserve Indicators These reports are critical inputs for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. The highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll figures for November will be released. The previous reading was 119,000 jobs added. The Unemployment Rate for November is also due, with the previous forecast standing at 4.4%. Average Hourly Earnings for November will be published, which serves as a key indicator of wage inflation. The previous month-over-month increase was 0.2%. The latest Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported; the previous level was 236,000. Inflation Measures Inflation data is the most closely watched category, as unexpected increases ca
(Part 1 of 5) - Economic Calendar (15Dec25) - PCE, CPI, Global PMI hits the news
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-14

(Full Article) Preview of the week (15Dec25) - What will FedEx say about the market?

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 15Dec25) Labour Market and Federal Reserve Indicators These reports are critical inputs for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. The highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll figures for November will be released. The previous reading was 119,000 jobs added. The Unemployment Rate for November is also due, with the previous forecast standing at 4.4%. Average Hourly Earnings for November will be published, which serves as a key indicator of wage inflation. The previous month-over-month increase was 0.2%. The latest Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported; the previous level was 236,000. Inflation Measures Inflation data is the most closely watched category, as unexpected increases can cause significant market volatility and disrupt the F
(Full Article) Preview of the week (15Dec25) - What will FedEx say about the market?
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-07

(Part 5 of 5) my investing muse - layoffs, closures, AI, Data Centre (08Dec25)

My Investing Muse (08Dec25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Image US nonfarm employment fell by 9,000 in November, marking the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, according to Revelio. The firm compiles data from company career pages, such as LinkedIn and Indeed, and staffing agencies. This comes as private employment dropped 19,400 while the government added +10,400 jobs. Furthermore, October’s decline was revised sharply lower, by 6,400 jobs, to 15,500. This brings the total downward revisions to 158,800 over the last 4 months. Nonfarm payrolls have now posted 5 declines over the last 7 months, the worst streak in at least 5 years. Deterioration of the job market is accelerating. - Revelio Denny’s is closing 150 locations in the coming weeks, according to PennLive. - Syracuse US bank
(Part 5 of 5) my investing muse - layoffs, closures, AI, Data Centre (08Dec25)
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-01

Part 5 of 5 - my investing muse (01Dec25) - layoffs, pivot and data

My Investing Muse (01Dec25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news AMAZON LAYOFFS HIT NEARLY 2,000 ENGINEERS - Amazon’s latest round of job cuts has reached deep into its technical ranks, eliminating nearly 2,000 engineering roles and signalling a sharper reset of the company’s ambitions in key growth areas. The reductions, which hit teams working on everything from Alexa to core retail systems, mark one of the most concentrated blows to Amazon’s engineering workforce since its broader downsizing began. - MSN Companies have announced more than 1.1 million layoffs so far this year, a 44% increase from the total number of layoffs in 2024, per YF Approximately 30% of all job postings are fake, per MorePerfectUnion 39,006 Americans got advance layoff warnings in October, the second-highest sin
Part 5 of 5 - my investing muse (01Dec25) - layoffs, pivot and data
avatarKYHBKO
2025-12-01

Part 1 of 5 - Economic Calendar for the coming week (01Dec2025) - PMI, PCE & Jobs

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 01Dec25) 📰 Upcoming Economic Data and Market Highlights Here is a breakdown of the key economic releases and events scheduled for the coming week, sorted by relevant topic. Manufacturing Sector Indicators 🏭 The following Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will provide insight into the health of the global and domestic manufacturing sectors. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. China Manufacturing PMI (November): Previous: 49.0 (Implied contraction). Significance: China’s data is a crucial barometer for global consumption trends, given its role as a major global producer. Chicago PMI (December): Previous: 43.8 (Indicated contraction in the Chic
Part 1 of 5 - Economic Calendar for the coming week (01Dec2025) - PMI, PCE & Jobs
avatarKYHBKO
2025-11-29
From BarChart: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections 📉 Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 Will history repeat itself again? $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$   $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  
avatarSpiders
2025-11-26

How Do You Tell When a Market Armageddon Is Coming?

Some days the market moves with the grace of a swan; other days it throws itself down the stairs like a toddler in a tantrum. And somewhere between elegance and chaos, people start whispering the same question: Is this it? Is the sky finally falling? It’s always funny how a downturn begins so quietly. A little red here, a wobble there—nothing dramatic, nothing operatic. Just a shrug from the universe. Everyone pretends they can see the signs of the great collapse approaching, but honestly, markets give off signals the way cats do: mysteriously, contradictorily, and with an air of smug superiority. One indicator screams doom, another hums a lullaby, and the third starts breakdancing for no apparent reason. By the time you add them together, you’ve got nothing but a headache. Meanwhile, the
How Do You Tell When a Market Armageddon Is Coming?
avatarFrosty4ever
2025-11-24
arguably the most important skill to learn is managing emotions. 
avatarPatmos
2025-11-24
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Availability of Credit 
avatarKYHBKO
2025-11-23

Part 5 of 5 - my investing muse (24Nov25) - layoffs, closures and a bad week

My Investing Muse (24Nov25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Popular crypto company files for Chapter 15 bankruptcy as Bitcoin crashes. The decentralised application (dApp) analytics platform, DappRadar, decided to wind down as running a large organisation has become “financially unsustainable” in the “current environment.” - Yahoo Finance On the jobs front. ATT laid off 30% of its workforce last week which is huge even by their standards. I’ve been watching for it to pop up in the news, but haven’t seen anything? 3M also laid off last week with more to come. Roche laid off 50% in some divisions. AbbVie as well. - X user Chey Cab Verizon says it will cut 13,000 jobs - X user Unusual Whales Tyson Foods is closing a major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska with 3,200 employees in Januar
Part 5 of 5 - my investing muse (24Nov25) - layoffs, closures and a bad week
avatarKYHBKO
2025-11-23

Part 4 of 5 - News Summary (24Nov25)

News and my thoughts from the past week (24Nov25) Investors are DUMPING Bitcoin funds at a RECORD pace: Bitcoin ETF $IBIT saw -$523 MILLION in net outflows on Tuesday, the highest EVER. In 5 days, investors withdrew over $1 BILLION from $IBIT. Over the last 3 weeks, crypto funds have seen $3.2 BILLION in net outflows. - X user Global Markets Investor Container import bookings into the US are down 16% YoY as retailers tighten up inventories - X user Craig Fuller Why are stocks falling? Because if you take the numbers in this chart seriously, the hyperscalers will hold at least $2.5 trillion in AI assets by the end of this decade. Assuming a depreciation rate of 20%, that would generate $500 billion in annual depreciation expense. This is more than their combined profits for 2025. - X user P
Part 4 of 5 - News Summary (24Nov25)
avatarhighhand
2025-11-23
When $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$   is super high and cleared previous swing highs  When everyone is bearish and dooms day sayers are out in full force. When the $S&P 500(.SPX)$  or $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  reach a major support and closed with bullish candle in subsequent sessions. When most companies are reporting strong earnings, showing growth and the indices drop to a strong support, indicating that all these doesn't really make sense. When fundamentally strong companies are already at the low end of analysts targets price, so institutional accumulation is very likely tak
avatarYourstruly
2025-11-23
Replying to @Yourstruly:Haha if that’s Not Enough Warren Buffet holds both of those.//@Yourstruly:Lennar and pool have bottomed, 5% and 6% yesterday, it’s about to go parabolic with fed cut and trump supporting housing. It’s like mad Mike said #frenzy
avatarYourstruly
2025-11-23
Lennar and pool have bottomed, 5% and 6% yesterday, it’s about to go parabolic with fed cut and trump supporting housing. It’s like mad Mike said #frenzy