BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
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Intel's Woes: Misguided Trade Policies and Layoffs

$Intel(INTC)$ is the casualty and poster child of misguided trade policies that have eroded the company's business.The company once generated 27% of its revenues from China (2022 & 2023). Now, it's laying off tens of thousands of employees.It could also be in line for a taxpayer funded bailout on top of the billions it is already receiving as part of the CHIPS Act.Talk about cutting one's own nose to spite their face. Ouch.Image
Intel's Woes: Misguided Trade Policies and Layoffs

Did potential Nio model buyers switch to Onvo?

Did potential $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ model buyers switch to Onvo instead in October? It’s a possibility. Nio brand order flow appears weaker than hoped. If I were NIO I would launch a more aggressive promotion campaign to entice new Nio brand buyers. “To maintain the new order flow for the Nio brand, the company also ramped up promotions in October. Nio increased accessary purchase bonus by RMB 2,000 ($280) per vehicle, from RM B18,000 in September to RMB 20,000 in October, applicable to all Nio-branded products, according to the team.” - Deutsche BankImageNIO October 2024 delivery update:➡️NIO branded cars: 16,657 (down 18% MoM)➡️ONVO branded cars: 4,319 (up 419% MoM)They need Onvo deliveries to
Did potential Nio model buyers switch to Onvo?

A quick comparison of $TSLA and $BYDDF 3Q24 results

A quick comparison of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ 3Q24 results.BYD already beat Tesla on revenues, gross profit, and gross profit margins.✅Tesla still has a slight edge in terms of pure EVs sold. But don't expect BYD to unseat Tesla as No. 1 pure EV company soon, as hybrids are growing faster in China.From a valuation perspective, BYD is grossly undervalued relative to its MUCH LARGER peer.ImageI wonder if we'll see $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ 's ownership in BYD rise above 5% again. Seems like they left quite a bit of money on the table with this one. Citi Raises BYD COMPANY's TP to $500 as GPM, FCF Beat
A quick comparison of $TSLA and $BYDDF 3Q24 results

NIO, BYD, BABA, JD & XPeng Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $NIO-SW(09866)$ The company is a bit behind on its goal of 1,000 new stations this year, as NIO looks to make more battery swapping stations available to its ONVO customers. Nio exceeds 2,600 swap stations in ChinaImage2. $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ BYD's hybrid pickup Shark6 is going to shake up the utility vehicle market where it enters. I've seen reviews of this dual-electric motor pickup with the same gas engine as the Sealion 6. They are ALL positive and stand to resonate very well with the off-roading community.3. $BABA-W(09988)$ BABA short turnover narrowed from 20% by midday to just 15% as of the close. Some short-covering towards the end most likely given
NIO, BYD, BABA, JD & XPeng Show Strong Bullish Trends

Hong Kong Stocks Gain Momentum Ahead of Meeting

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index adds 0.79% today and building some positive momentum on the back of next week's meeting. More #stimulus announcements expected. Nobody wants to take any big bets for or against at this point, as even short-selling turnover is light.EV names are moving higher as China-EU negotiations continue re tariffs and pricing. This could surprise to the upside. $XPENG-W(09868)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ $BYD COMPANY(01211)$$BILIBILI-W(09626)$ up 5.2% on anticipation of b
Hong Kong Stocks Gain Momentum Ahead of Meeting

40% of $TSLA's manufacturing capacity is in China

40% of TSLA's manufacturing capacity is in China. That 950k+ figure is already at max output given August total production of 86,697 units, including 23,241 exported. Production running at 1.04m units per year annualized. Estimate China accounted for 55% of total 3Q24 deliveries for the company.ImageOf course $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ will continue to do well in the US and Europe. It doesn’t need to compete with Chinese EV imports. That’s the simple truth of it. The question is how long before Chinese EVs will gain manufacturing foothold in these markets to avoid tariffs, and how competitive can they be operating on foreign opex structures.
40% of $TSLA's manufacturing capacity is in China

HSTECH slides due to a lack of new catalysts and a strong US

$HSTECH(HSTECH)$ slides 2.6% on Thursday (10/24) due to a lack of new catalysts and a strong US dollar (bearish for risk assets like Chinese equities). $KraneShares Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(KTEC)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ Short-selling turnover picked up to 15.9% by the end of the day, slightly lower than the mid-day ratio. $BABA-W(09988)$ at 10% $JD-SW(09618)$ at 17.5% $BIDU-SW(09888)$ at 19.4% in terms of short turnover. But EV names had some of the highest short-selling rates, with
HSTECH slides due to a lack of new catalysts and a strong US

TCOM, BABA, AAPL and TSLA Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ With Prosus exiting its entire stake in TCOM, there seems to be little overhang left to keep this great company from reaching new heights. This FY24 looking to be a breakout year with domestic travel soaring above pre-pandemic levels.ImageImage2. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ Alibaba now owned by mainland Chinese investors to the tune of 623m shares or 3.25% via the Stock Connect. The pace of accumulation has slowed lately as the market continues to correct. But based on this technical pattern in BABA's HK shares, we may be in for another strong month in November. Earnings season awaits!ImageImage3.
TCOM, BABA, AAPL and TSLA Show Strong Bullish Trends

China's stock market is prone to explosive bull markets

To all the people who are saying that China's stock market is uninvestable and hasn't gone anywhere since it started, please take a look a this chart below.Since the CSI 300 Index was created in April 2005, the performance has trailed the $.SPX(.SPX)$ returns by 50%. That is, a 325% return for China vs. a 375% return for the S&P 500.What is also clear is that China's stock market is prone to explosive bull markets not seen in the U.S., as well as long bear markets (that aren't allowed to happen in the U.S.).The bull markets have, on average, seen 273% gains over a period of 1.5 to 2 years.We've already finished the very long bear market cycle in Chinese equities. What comes next, I'll leave to your imagination.
China's stock market is prone to explosive bull markets

Why Is $PDD Such a Beast?

Three easy-to-understand charts as to why $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ is such a beast and explains why $BlackRock(BLK)$ upped its stake to 33m ADR shares from 29m in 2Q24. In hindsight, that snafu by management during the 2Q24 earnings call created a buying opportunity that we may not see again. ImageImageImageWow! 🤩 More stock market support from China’s government institutions. Like I said, China is looking at the stock market differently this time around and taking into consideration the market when announcing policies to boost overall confidence.
Why Is $PDD Such a Beast?

Chinese NEVs Face Export Challenges

China's NEV exports are hitting a ceiling of about 120k per month. One hurdle for Chinese NEV exporters like $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ $Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.(GELYF)$ is addressing the concern of service and part availability for units purchased today. A $Toyota(TM)$ bought 20 years ago can still be used today and kept in good working condition. Can the same be said for Chinese NEVs? Only time will tell. Also, markets that do not have domestic manufacturing of NEVs will likely price Chinese NEVs high vs. mainland prices. The domestic dealers will want to make a little bit extra up front because they forgo service revenues that would otherwise be obtained wit
Chinese NEVs Face Export Challenges

Oil/Gas, nuclear and renewable energy as growth areas in China’s energy profile

China is nowhere near the peak per capita energy consumption from coal that the US and Australia saw before they turned away from the dirty fossil fuel. But it doesn’t mean China should allow its coal energy use to grow unchecked. I believe that much of the growth in electricity demand in China is coming from new electric vehicles hitting the roads. Soon, China will have as many new NEVs on the roads each year as the entire US car market.We can see that China is taking a multi-pronged approach to tackling its growing energy use. Coal is growing in terms of total output but declining as a share of overall energy consumption. That means opportunities abound in oil, natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy as growth areas in China’s energy profile. $iSh
Oil/Gas, nuclear and renewable energy as growth areas in China’s energy profile

SE, KBA and HKEX Will Surge Upward

1. $Sea Ltd(SE)$ Sea Limited now back above $100. Wow. Congrats to all who bought at the start of the year!Image2. $KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF(KBA)$ $KraneShares MSCI China All Shares Index ETF(KALL)$ $China Resources Land Ltd.(CRBJF)$ China’s property sector doesn’t look like it’s done with its epic rally. Fix the property market, almost everything else will follow. I’ve been banging on the table for a long time on measures to restore the lost confidence in RE. The moves in the stock market are reflecting that changing sentiment for the better. Image3. $HKE
SE, KBA and HKEX Will Surge Upward

$TSLA pulling down big numbers in CHINA

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ pulling down big numbers in … CHINA. China accounted for more than half of Tesla’s sales in 3Q24. But China EVs virtually banned in the US. If $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ $Li Auto(LI)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ lose out on a market they don’t even sell cars in today, how does it impact their business & prosp
$TSLA pulling down big numbers in CHINA

HK Tech Stocks Drop on No Fiscal Stimulus

$HSTECH(HSTECH)$ melts 🔻 by 12.8% following the NDRC’s announcement that didn’t lead to more big fiscal stimulus. One of the highest volume days on record and declines despite mainland investors returning from a weeklong holiday. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF(KBA)$ $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$ $KraneShares Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(KTEC)$ $CoreValues Alpha Greater China Growth ETF(CGRO)$ Biggest losses suffered by semiconductor/AI names like
HK Tech Stocks Drop on No Fiscal Stimulus

EH, Gold and BABA Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $EHang Holdings Ltd(EH)$ One of the biggest movers in the China ADR universe today is EHang Holdings. Pilotless eVTOL rocks. Image2. $BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ BABA now down 0.4% and trading at a 3.4% discount to HK listed shares despite tomorrow Chinese investors will come back to the market since Sept 30 and able to trade Alibaba on the Stock Connect. 🤔3. $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ You might be wondering why Chinese buyers are a little weary of buying gold these days. But the fact it’s holding close to $2700 in the absence China purchases is remarkable. The rest of the world is taking on more gold and realiz
EH, Gold and BABA Show Strong Bullish Trends

HSTECH notched another day of solid gains

HSTECH notched another day of solid gains

Chinese tech stocks end the week on a strong note!

Chinese tech stocks end the week on a strong note!

Will tariffs in Europe make Chinese EV firms cry?

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ drops 3.2% following the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs. Now trading at an 8% discount to the HK traded shares. Makes little sense as Europe accounts for a small portion of Nio’s business. The China EV market is where the action is at today and where $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $Li Auto(LI)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ will learn to thrive or fail in the most competitive mar
Will tariffs in Europe make Chinese EV firms cry?

Chinese AI and chipmaking stocks listed in HK are soaring

Chinese AI and chipmaking stocks listed in HK are soaring today. $SENSETIME-W(00020)$ +17% $SMIC(00981)$ +23% $HUA HONG SEMI(01347)$ +25%Why? Because Beijing isn’t sitting on the sidelines anymore. They’re unleashing one of the biggest - if not THE biggest - stimulus package in history.Now that funds are taking a good hard look at China again, they realize these companies continue to trade at fractions of the sizes of Western peers. And that Biden’s efforts to keep them down have only yielded the opposite results.It’s going to be a few more years before China rivals the US for the most advanced chip design and chipmaking tech. But they’ll get there… and funds
Chinese AI and chipmaking stocks listed in HK are soaring

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