The reporting on Southbound Stock Connect ownership of $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ is a little funky. As of 9/13 (Friday) the ownership was 141.96m shares.China's markets were closed on 9/16 and 9/17 for the Mid Autumn Festival. So, no Stock Connect trading.But on 9/16 the ownership jumped to 184.05m shares.Then on 9/17, it jumped again to 199.78m shares.How could ownership increase when the Stock Connect was halted due to the holiday?If there's a lag in reporting cross-border purchases, then the first four days of Alibaba's inclusion effectively saw mainland investors scooping up 50m shares, on average, per day.That's equivalent to 46% of the average daily trading volume in Hong Kong for the first f

China's online retail sales in August 2024 slows down to 5.1% growth.YTD August 2024: RMB 9,635.2b +8.9% YoYYTD August 2023: RMB 8,847.7bAugust 2024: RMB 1,256.8b +5.1% YoYAugust 2023: RMB 1,196.2bAugust marked a steady slowdown in growth for China's online economy, which is still growing faster than the overall retail industry.Stripping out online retail sales, traditional retail grew by just 0.7% to RMB 2,615b in August 2024. That is NOT encouraging. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ $Bilib

Simple way to view EV tariffs.The US and other Western nations will do well to tariff Chinese EV imports only to the point these don’t undercut the prices of homegrown EVs. Why? Because Chinese EVs are clearly way ahead in the game and have something to offer consumers besides price.There will be strong demand for Chinese EVs as seen with $NIO popularity in Norway, Germany, Sweden, etc. Governments won’t tax Chinese EVs too high as it will kill off demand. After all, it’s better to get 25% of $100 billion in EV imports than to get 200% of $10 billion. $Li Auto(LI)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ <

My verdict on the new iPhone. $Apple(AAPL)$ is losing sight of the consumer. It will still a mountain of these devices for sure. But I think they missed an opportunity to come out with a product that both looks and feels significantly different than the last 3 iPhone models. It’s gone from giving consumers what they want to more of telling consumers what they want. I think Apple is great at giving us something we've never experienced before.But for many years now, it's failed at giving us something we've never seen before.What do you value more?https://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1833518307422638522

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ 2Q24 results breakdown:- Revenue +99% to $2.4bn vs. $2.65bn expected (MISS). ** Company was expecting $2.37bn initially.- Adjusted EPS loss -$0.30 vs. -$0.30 expected (EQUAL)- Deliveries +144% to 57,373 vs. 54k to 56k company estimates.- Vehicle margin doubled to 12.2% YoY- GPM up 10X to 9.7% YoY; up 2X MoM- Sitting on cash & equivalents of $5.7bnOutlook for 3Q24:- Deliveries of 61k to 63k- Revenues of $2.63bn to $2.71bnCompany appears on track to breakeven by 4Q25 based on the earnings trend.Short interest in this stock is high. About 191m shares as of 7/31/24. That's about 9.1% of total outstanding. https://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1831920522445386015

ONE MILLION electrified vehicles sold in one month! That’s nearly 10X more than the US. Yet the mentality of US lawmakers is “How to stop Chinese brands from entering our country” instead of “How to help our US carmakers capture more of China’s market.”🤦‍♂️ $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ $BYD COMPANY-R(81211)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ $Li Auto(LI)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ $General Mo

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, the Federal government bailed out $Ford(F)$ $General Motors(GM)$ and Chrysler (among others) and effectively took stakes in these automakers. GM and Chrysler became partly government-owned entities, while Ford accepted a $6 billion loan. Still, they thrived in China, allowing the auto giants to grow their sales there 3 to 8-fold in the coming years, helping boost their valuation and give the Federal government an exit. In my recollection, China did not raise objections to it. This was likely influenced by the fact that US automakers operated in China via joint ventures with local partners.However, US automakers except for Tesla failed to catch up with the pace o

Two things to consider with $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ HK primary listing status opening up the likely inclusion into the Southbound Stock Connect program:1. If it doesn’t result in ordinary mainland investors buying Alibaba’s shares in HK, nothing much changes from the status quo. Alibaba is still on track to have a great 2024 with antitrust completed and all divisions contributing to profitability. It’s a company trading at 9X fwd PE with a 2.4% yield. 2. If it DOES result in mainland investors buying up shares, the impact could be substantial especially if China unleashes some sort of consumption-focused stimulus. This is actually already starting with the news of mortgage refinancing for existin

State-Backed Chinese Fund Acquires Chinese Stocks Listed in the US. Great development for China ADRs for sure. State buying of these firms not directly related to property measures but the shift in overall sentiment is palpable.Image1. $MEITUAN(MPNGF)$ $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ At least something is working in China's markets.Meituan continues to rally after posting better-than-expected 2Q24 results yesterday.Now breaking out of its 4-month consolidation pattern.Image2. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ China regulators end investigation of BABA. I think everyone was already expecting this. It does give the whole ordeal some c

Even Jensen Huang with all his flare and swagger could not soften the blow to $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ after posting FY2Q25 results and slower growth outlook.Revenue +122%Net income +168%GPM +500 bps YoY (-330 bps QoQ)3Q Outlook:Revenue +80%Blackwell to ship out in 4Q and bring in several billion $$$Approved $50B buybackThe stock is down ~7% after market but could have been worse if they handled the ER like $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ . I hope Colin Huang and Chen Lei were listening to this announcement.https://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1828976382157959679