BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
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Will the Hang Seng Index fall further?

$HSI(HSI)$ may have another 1,000 to 1,500 pts to reach a temp bottom (20% from recent highs) and $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ may drop to 3,900 to 4,000 pts if we don’t see a strong set of 3Q results from $BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$
Will the Hang Seng Index fall further?

TSLA Breaks Downtrend, China Sales Lag: Price Cuts Next?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ just broke out of its 2+ years downtrend channel following better-than-expected 2Q deliveries that grew 14.8% sequentially but still down 4.8% annually. The problem is China sales for the company are down 24.2% in June on an annual basis, while the company tries to revive demand with 0% loans. More price cuts in store? Would be good to wait for a confirmation of this BO.Imagehttps://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1808352343827927477
TSLA Breaks Downtrend, China Sales Lag: Price Cuts Next?

Here's what happened in China's markets today (9/1)

1. A growing number of Chinese cities are heeding the call to relax property purchase rules to help reignite demand. The cities of Xiamen and Wuhan followed tech and manufacturing hubs Shenzhen and Guangzhou, as well as four other cities, in allowing homebuyers to avail of lower loan rates for first-time purchases. Initial down payments were also lowered to 20% for first-time buyers and to 30% for second-time buyers - significantly lower than the prevailing 50% or higher down payment often sought by banks. However, two of China’s most important cities - Beijing and Shanghai - have yet to loosen their property purchase rules. Existing homeowners with mortgages can also renegotiate with banks to lower their mortgage rates following repeated rate cuts by the PBoC this year.
Here's what happened in China's markets today (9/1)

NIO shorts are screwed from here on

If $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO.SI)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ holders pushed this up to $10 it would probably got to $20 to $30 on the panic short-covering. No matter what the case, I think NIO shorts are screwed from here on.ImageThere are 174 Million shares short NIO Stock (10% of float). Thats not including bearish put option strategies and naked shorting.Today, it would cost shorts 870 Million USD to cover these short positions.If NIO reaches 10 USD it would cost 1.74 Billion USD to cover, etc.https://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1832723951174521082
NIO shorts are screwed from here on

The panic is already showing in the VIX, UVXY

The increasing likelihood of the Fed cutting rates by 50bps this September together with BoJ shift away from zero rates will aggravate the unwinding of the carry trade. Everyone who borrowed cheap JPY and bought into a market that kept going up… their losses are amplified by a surging yen and a dropping US market. The panic is already showing in the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$.
The panic is already showing in the VIX, UVXY

LCID & NIO - Contrasting Fortunes Despite Losses

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ is worth $10B and “killing it” after delivering just 2,781 units in 3Q24 and losing $1B.😂 $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ is worth $10B and “failing to deliver” after selling 61,855 units in 3Q24 and losing $1B.🙃One is losing $360K per unit and “killing it!”One is losing $16K per unit and has a “weak outlook.” $LEAPMOTOR(09863)$ is just an absolute standout right now in China’s very competitive EV market. Image
LCID & NIO - Contrasting Fortunes Despite Losses

Silver! Can you get a better technical chart than this?

Hi, ho, #silver! Can you get a better technical chart than this? $SLV $PSLV $PAAS $WPM $RGLD $HL $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust(PSLV)$ $Pan American Silver(PAAS)$ $Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ $Royal(RGLD)$ $Hecla Mining(HL)$ Wow. Next stop 35 it seems. We anticipated this situation unfolding early on in @Stansberry Commodity Supercycles. Silver stored in the LBMA continues to decline. There simply aren't enough new major discoveries being made (and not enough new investments) to satisfy demand coming from invest
Silver! Can you get a better technical chart than this?

A quick comparison of $TSLA and $BYDDF 3Q24 results

A quick comparison of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ 3Q24 results.BYD already beat Tesla on revenues, gross profit, and gross profit margins.✅Tesla still has a slight edge in terms of pure EVs sold. But don't expect BYD to unseat Tesla as No. 1 pure EV company soon, as hybrids are growing faster in China.From a valuation perspective, BYD is grossly undervalued relative to its MUCH LARGER peer.ImageI wonder if we'll see $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ 's ownership in BYD rise above 5% again. Seems like they left quite a bit of money on the table with this one. Citi Raises BYD COMPANY's TP to $500 as GPM, FCF Beat
A quick comparison of $TSLA and $BYDDF 3Q24 results

Here's what happened in China's markets today (12/7)

1. China’s foreign exchange and gold reserves climbed higher in November. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reported the country’s foreign exchange reserves increased $70.6 billion in November to reach $3.17 trillion. The figure was slightly higher than the $3.14 trillion expected by the market, which points to resilience in the nation’s ability to generate a positive balance of payments despite the economic headwinds and slowing exports. However, slowing imports are also warning of weak domestic consumption, which needs to be addressed with stimulus. Meanwhile, China continues to accumulate gold, with central bank purchases up another 380k ounces in November. The country’s official gold reserves amounted to 71.58 million ounces last month, another record high.
Here's what happened in China's markets today (12/7)

The ten China Equity ETFs with the largest have had $51.2B of inflow

China Equity ETFs listed globally have seen $48B of net buying year to date. The ten China Equity ETFs with the largest have had $51.2B of inflow. All ten are listed in China. Only 2 of the top 25 for YTD inflow are listed outside of China. $E-FUND CSI 300 EXCHANGE-TRADEED INDEX INITIATED STYLE SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(510310)$ $JIASHI CSI 300 INDEX TRADING SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(159919)$ $HUATAI-PINEBRIDGE CSI 300 INDEX TRADING SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(510300)$ $CARD IN 500 EXCHANGE-TRADED INDEX SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(510500)$ $SSE 50 ETF FUND(510050)$
The ten China Equity ETFs with the largest have had $51.2B of inflow

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