BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
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Will the Hang Seng Index fall further?

$HSI(HSI)$ may have another 1,000 to 1,500 pts to reach a temp bottom (20% from recent highs) and $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ may drop to 3,900 to 4,000 pts if we don’t see a strong set of 3Q results from $BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$
Will the Hang Seng Index fall further?

TSLA Breaks Downtrend, China Sales Lag: Price Cuts Next?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ just broke out of its 2+ years downtrend channel following better-than-expected 2Q deliveries that grew 14.8% sequentially but still down 4.8% annually. The problem is China sales for the company are down 24.2% in June on an annual basis, while the company tries to revive demand with 0% loans. More price cuts in store? Would be good to wait for a confirmation of this BO.Imagehttps://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1808352343827927477
TSLA Breaks Downtrend, China Sales Lag: Price Cuts Next?

Here's what happened in China's markets today (9/1)

1. A growing number of Chinese cities are heeding the call to relax property purchase rules to help reignite demand. The cities of Xiamen and Wuhan followed tech and manufacturing hubs Shenzhen and Guangzhou, as well as four other cities, in allowing homebuyers to avail of lower loan rates for first-time purchases. Initial down payments were also lowered to 20% for first-time buyers and to 30% for second-time buyers - significantly lower than the prevailing 50% or higher down payment often sought by banks. However, two of China’s most important cities - Beijing and Shanghai - have yet to loosen their property purchase rules. Existing homeowners with mortgages can also renegotiate with banks to lower their mortgage rates following repeated rate cuts by the PBoC this year.
Here's what happened in China's markets today (9/1)

NIO shorts are screwed from here on

If $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO.SI)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ holders pushed this up to $10 it would probably got to $20 to $30 on the panic short-covering. No matter what the case, I think NIO shorts are screwed from here on.ImageThere are 174 Million shares short NIO Stock (10% of float). Thats not including bearish put option strategies and naked shorting.Today, it would cost shorts 870 Million USD to cover these short positions.If NIO reaches 10 USD it would cost 1.74 Billion USD to cover, etc.https://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1832723951174521082
NIO shorts are screwed from here on

The panic is already showing in the VIX, UVXY

The increasing likelihood of the Fed cutting rates by 50bps this September together with BoJ shift away from zero rates will aggravate the unwinding of the carry trade. Everyone who borrowed cheap JPY and bought into a market that kept going up… their losses are amplified by a surging yen and a dropping US market. The panic is already showing in the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$.
The panic is already showing in the VIX, UVXY

Silver! Can you get a better technical chart than this?

Hi, ho, #silver! Can you get a better technical chart than this? $SLV $PSLV $PAAS $WPM $RGLD $HL $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust(PSLV)$ $Pan American Silver(PAAS)$ $Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ $Royal(RGLD)$ $Hecla Mining(HL)$ Wow. Next stop 35 it seems. We anticipated this situation unfolding early on in @Stansberry Commodity Supercycles. Silver stored in the LBMA continues to decline. There simply aren't enough new major discoveries being made (and not enough new investments) to satisfy demand coming from invest
Silver! Can you get a better technical chart than this?

A quick comparison of $TSLA and $BYDDF 3Q24 results

A quick comparison of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ 3Q24 results.BYD already beat Tesla on revenues, gross profit, and gross profit margins.✅Tesla still has a slight edge in terms of pure EVs sold. But don't expect BYD to unseat Tesla as No. 1 pure EV company soon, as hybrids are growing faster in China.From a valuation perspective, BYD is grossly undervalued relative to its MUCH LARGER peer.ImageI wonder if we'll see $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ 's ownership in BYD rise above 5% again. Seems like they left quite a bit of money on the table with this one. Citi Raises BYD COMPANY's TP to $500 as GPM, FCF Beat
A quick comparison of $TSLA and $BYDDF 3Q24 results

Here's what happened in China's markets today (12/7)

1. China’s foreign exchange and gold reserves climbed higher in November. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reported the country’s foreign exchange reserves increased $70.6 billion in November to reach $3.17 trillion. The figure was slightly higher than the $3.14 trillion expected by the market, which points to resilience in the nation’s ability to generate a positive balance of payments despite the economic headwinds and slowing exports. However, slowing imports are also warning of weak domestic consumption, which needs to be addressed with stimulus. Meanwhile, China continues to accumulate gold, with central bank purchases up another 380k ounces in November. The country’s official gold reserves amounted to 71.58 million ounces last month, another record high.
Here's what happened in China's markets today (12/7)

The ten China Equity ETFs with the largest have had $51.2B of inflow

China Equity ETFs listed globally have seen $48B of net buying year to date. The ten China Equity ETFs with the largest have had $51.2B of inflow. All ten are listed in China. Only 2 of the top 25 for YTD inflow are listed outside of China. $E-FUND CSI 300 EXCHANGE-TRADEED INDEX INITIATED STYLE SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(510310)$ $JIASHI CSI 300 INDEX TRADING SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(159919)$ $HUATAI-PINEBRIDGE CSI 300 INDEX TRADING SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(510300)$ $CARD IN 500 EXCHANGE-TRADED INDEX SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND(510500)$ $SSE 50 ETF FUND(510050)$
The ten China Equity ETFs with the largest have had $51.2B of inflow

Don't short CN ADRs!

a lot of the CN tech names are bid up on HK open after their shares held up well overnight. $BABA-W(09988)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $BIDU-SW(09888)$ $TME-SW(01698)$ $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ $WB-SW(09898)$ $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ $NTES-S(09999)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ I'm a bit concerned seeing that we're
Don't short CN ADRs!

Mobile gaming operators are melting

Mobile gaming operators are melting in China. Govt regulation will effectively render prevailing business models irrelevant due to uncertainty regarding monetization. Games are inherently reward-based and if you clamp down on the use of rewards/incentives, you turn an entire industry on its head. It will be a while before companies find innovative ways to promote use, loyalty & spending without running afoul of the law. $TENCENT(00700)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $NetEase(NTES)$ $NTES-S(09999)$ $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ $BILIBILI-W(0
Mobile gaming operators are melting

We have too big to fail stocks

In 2007 we had too big to fail banks. In 2024 we have too big to fail stocks.10 companies account for 31% of $54 trillion in total US market capitalization.They are $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ ) $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ ( $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ ) $Eli Lil
We have too big to fail stocks

HSI managed to jump another 8.5%

Even with the absence of any cross-border buying by mainland investors, the $HSI(HSI)$ managed to jump another 8.5% today (10/2). That's a 48.2% gain in just 11 trading days. 🔥🔥🔥 $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $KraneShares Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(KTEC)$ $Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares(CWEB)$ The following major HK listed tech stocks have the biggest premiums to their ADR counterparts: $TENCENT(00700)$ +10.0% ‼️ $BABA-W(09988)$ +5.2% $JD-SW(09618)$ +11.0% ‼
HSI managed to jump another 8.5%

We are overbought in the Hang Seng Tech Index

We are overbought in the Hang Seng Tech Index. I know that's the last thing many want to hear, but it is what it is. We need to see strong follow-through policy changes for consumption this week. Watch out for a potential announcement from NDRC later this PM. $CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ $Tencent(00700)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $MEITUAN(MPNGF)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$
We are overbought in the Hang Seng Tech Index

BABA changes in listed company ownership from 8/15/23 to 11/15/23

$Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ changes in listed company ownership from 8/15/23 to 11/15/23:Added: $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ $BEST Inc(BEST)$ Reduced: $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ $Hello Group Inc(MOMO)$ $Weibo(WB)$ ImageGreat rundown of BABA results 👇Cloud was obviously disappointing.Jack Ma trust sale of 10m shares could have been better timed, but it is what it is.No more Alibaba C
BABA changes in listed company ownership from 8/15/23 to 11/15/23

Here's what happened in China's markets today (11/9)

1. China’s inflation came in lower than expected in October, fanning worries of deflation once again. The October consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.2% year-on-year compared with an expected 0.1% decline. That also compared with a slight 0.1% gain in the CPI for September 2023, which points to softening prices across the board. Producer price index (PPI) fell 2.6% year-on-year, a worsening from the 2.5% decline suffered in September, as China’s manufacturing sector struggles with a more challenging global and domestic demand. Shortly after the CPI data came out, news hit the wires of various directors from China’s National Administration of Financial Regulation rushing to meet this afternoon. Beijing is under enormous pressure to stimulate domestic demand.
Here's what happened in China's markets today (11/9)

NVDA stock split didn’t do much to keep the upward move intact

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ NVDA’s recent highs were attained with lower volume than previous record-setting rallies. Stock split didn’t do much to keep the upward move intact. It’s very likely we’ll see a retest of the 95-100 level.ImageNVDA monthly chart. Imagehttps://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/1805999908585103748
NVDA stock split didn’t do much to keep the upward move intact

Here's what happened in China's markets today (8/31)

1. #China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came out today with mixed results. The bad news is that the country’s non-manufacturing #PMI (i.e. services sector) declined from 51.5 in July to 51.0 in August. That would indicate a deceleration in expansion in the very important services sector, which had been hoisting economic growth in the face of a slowing property and export market. It was also below the 51.2 figure the market had been expecting. However, the manufacturing PMI for August came in at 49.7, higher than the 49.3 figure the previous month and better than the 49.2 the market was expecting. This suggests that industrial activity is picking up, possibly to do with a return of export orders in preparation for the holiday season. With Bei
Here's what happened in China's markets today (8/31)

China's online retail sales in August slows down

China's online retail sales in August 2024 slows down to 5.1% growth.YTD August 2024: RMB 9,635.2b +8.9% YoYYTD August 2023: RMB 8,847.7bAugust 2024: RMB 1,256.8b +5.1% YoYAugust 2023: RMB 1,196.2bAugust marked a steady slowdown in growth for China's online economy, which is still growing faster than the overall retail industry.Stripping out online retail sales, traditional retail grew by just 0.7% to RMB 2,615b in August 2024. That is NOT encouraging. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ $Bilib
China's online retail sales in August slows down

China's services industry growth in June markedly slower than previous month

China's services industry growth in June markedly slower than previous month but still clearly in expansionary mode. PBoC should take this as cue to keep foot on gas pedal. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ $Tencent(00700)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ $BILIBILI-W(0962
China's services industry growth in June markedly slower than previous month

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