BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
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Is Tesla selling at a discount to BYD?

In the Philippines… $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is offering Model 3s for the equivalent of $41,800. That’s cheaper than $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ ’s Seal EV at $43,900. But in China, the Seal sells for just $25,000 vs. the Model 3’s $32,000 price tag. Both units are imported from…. CHINA. EVs have ZERO TARIFFS in the Philippines. Dealers are marking up BYD to offset the lost revenue due to less need for regular maintenance where they usually gouge owners. Im surprised Tesla is selling at a discount to BYD.
Is Tesla selling at a discount to BYD?

$NIO proving again that good ER = bad stock move

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ proving again that good ER = bad stock move; bad ER = good stock move. 😂But seriously, a lot of this recovery from awful premarket is thanks to the meat of the analyst briefing.☑️Doubling sales in 2025 ‼️☑️Target for profitability in full year 2026 ‼️☑️Firefly launch and deliveries in 1H25☑️Onvo & Firefly to spearhead overseas push☑️Switch to new gen platform in 2025☑️Onvo to launch 2 SUVs in 2025☑️MENA store to launch end-Nov☑️FCF turned positive in Q324 ‼️
$NIO proving again that good ER = bad stock move

Selling Chrome won't end Google search monopoly

This is just laughable. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ has an almost 90% market share of search globally regardless of browser.It pays $Apple(AAPL)$ $18B/yr to be the default search engine in iOS. Simply selling Chrome to another company will not change Google’s search engine monopoly. It’s simply restructuring masked as antitrust. Image $Apple(AAPL)$ market share in Indonesia's 35m/year smartphone industry is 12%. That works out to 4.2m iPhones each year with an estimated value of $4 billion. Not sure what a $100m investment will do to help the company comply with Indonesia's 40% local content requirement. That am
Selling Chrome won't end Google search monopoly

The $SPX and $NDX are still the best-performing major markets globally

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are still the best-performing major markets globally year-to-date.Without looking at charts, you won't think that China's three other main indices are right behind their US counterparts. $HSI(HSI)$ $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ CSI300Remember that China's markets underwent a major correction in October. We already had the Trump bump this month. Will China have a stimulus kick going into the final month of the year? $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF(EWH)$
The $SPX and $NDX are still the best-performing major markets globally

Comparing Alibaba's HK Shares and ADR

Take a look at these two Alibaba charts. One is for its HK-listed shares $BABA-W(09988)$ , while the other is for the ADR $Alibaba(BABA)$ .Crazy how the ADR likes to give out these false breakdowns that don't seem to occur in the HK counter.This is why it's always important to wait for confirmation of a move, whether bullish or bearish.ImageImageMainland investors bought up a net 28.7m more shares in Alibaba via the Stock Connect over the past week as the company announced 2QFY25 results, which beat earnings expectations. Ownership by Chinese investors now at an ATH of 3.84%.
Comparing Alibaba's HK Shares and ADR

Cainiao: A Key Revenue Driver for BABA with Strategic Importance

One of $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ 's biggest revenue contributors is its Cainiao Smarts Logistics arm. One of a handful of cross-border e-commerce logistics services providers, it's dedicated to serving the needs of Alibaba's customers in Taobao and TMall.While profits have been generally growing in line with Alibaba's GMV, it's struggled to contribute to the group's profitability. However, it's also not bleeding the company - effectively breaking even while providing affordable shipping for Alibaba's customers. This is possibly why Joe Tsai decided to buy out minority shareholders last March and scrap a spin-off and IPO of Cainiao. They bought out 36% minority stake at a valuation of about US$10.4
Cainiao: A Key Revenue Driver for BABA with Strategic Importance

Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence: Growth Driver and Undervalued Asset

$Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ 's Cloud Intelligence business is the driving force of its growth. After going through several years of regulatory scrutiny, the company now has a clear path towards expanding in this market expected to triple to $293B by 2027. It's why they're investing heavily today.EBITDA margins hit an all-time-high of 9% in 2QFY25, up from 5.1% a year ago, and up from 2.1% two years ago. These margins are almost similar to $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 's AWS, which is now being valued at $2.5 to $3.0 trillion. Alibaba Cloud isn't generating anywhere near the revenue of AWS. But not too far either - about 1/6th AWS 2023 revenues on a TTM basis. Kind of
Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence: Growth Driver and Undervalued Asset

JD, Leapmotor, and HSTECH Will Surge Upward

1. $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ The order flow in JD's HK-listed shares is dominated by bullish orders today despite it being down more than 2%. Sign of accumulation by institutional buyers ahead of tomorrow's 3Q24 earnings release?ImageImage2. $LEAPMOTOR(09863)$ One of the few Chinese EV makers doing very well but flying under the radar of Wall Street is Leapmotor which you can only trade in the HKEX Group. Its 3Q24 rev +74% to RMB 9.86b ($1.4b) and net loss narrowed to RMB 690m ($98m) beating expectations by around 40%. At a market cap of $4.6bn, trading at a P/S of 1.3X fwd 12m revenue. Image3. $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ The H
JD, Leapmotor, and HSTECH Will Surge Upward

Chinese investors aren't at all worried about Trump's win

Since the US elections on Nov. 5th, China's onshore markets have gained 3% while Hong Kong's markets have crumbled 4% to 5%.That's a significant 8% swing in performance. Chinese investors aren't at all worried about Trump's win. They are focused on the economy, which appears to be improving.$KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF(KBA)$ $KraneShares SSE STAR Market 50 Index ETF(KSTR)$ $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$ $KraneShares MSCI China All Shares Index ETF(KALL)$ $China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd.(CAOVY)$ $China Res
Chinese investors aren't at all worried about Trump's win

LKNCY, KC and SE Will Surge Upward

1. $Luckin Coffee Inc.(LKNCY)$ Luckin Coffee should no longer be trading as an OTC. It should be back as an ADR again after it addressed its accounting issues and has already recovered ALL of its losses since the issue erupted. Either that or list shares in HKEX Group, then join the Stock Connect program. It's like US investors never having been able to invest in $Starbucks(SBUX)$ Image2. $Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd(KC)$ Kingsoft Cloud flying under the radar in China's explosively growing cloud computing and AI market. Company just got an upgrade from CICC today with TP raised 71% to $6/share. That's about a 50% upside from Tuesday's ADR close. Image3.
LKNCY, KC and SE Will Surge Upward

Will the Hang Seng Index fall further?

$HSI(HSI)$ may have another 1,000 to 1,500 pts to reach a temp bottom (20% from recent highs) and $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ may drop to 3,900 to 4,000 pts if we don’t see a strong set of 3Q results from $BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$
Will the Hang Seng Index fall further?

The market is still enjoying its post-Trump honeymoon period

The market is still enjoying its post-Trump honeymoon period. Strong dollar. Strong equities. Strong crypto. Down everything else.But soon, reality will dawn that Trump's policies are going to be quite inflationary. We have what appears to be:1. A worsening trade war with China (tariffs have been shown to increase inflation for US consumers).2. Tighter labor market (wage inflation).3. Corporate and income tax cuts (more on personal income tax impact on inflation & spending).4. Reduced government tax revenues as a result of 3 increases the need to borrow.5. Pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates as a result of 4 could further reignite inflation.6. Too strong a US dollar will make it quite expensive for foreign firms to set up manufacturing in the country & for US exporters to c
The market is still enjoying its post-Trump honeymoon period

Did SE really come roaring back?

I know $Sea Ltd(SE)$ struggled last year. But, boy, did it really come roaring back - not just its ecommerce business Shopee but also its gaming division now contributing the way it used to. A sort of $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ + $TENCENT(00700)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ of the Emerging Markets rolled into one dynamo. Sea Limited $SE 3Q results:Revenue +30.8% to $4.3 billion (Major BEAT!)Adjusted EPS +200% to $0.26 (from -$0.26 loss) (Meet)Metrics:- Ecommerce GMV +25.2% to $25.1B Ecom gross orders +24.2% to 2.8B GAAP revenue +42.6% to $3.2B Adjusted EBITDA swings from
Did SE really come roaring back?

$TSLA is up 37% since Trump won the White House

So $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is up 37% since Trump won the White House. That’s more than a quarter of a TRILLION dollars added to the company’s market cap. Now trades close to 100x PE. Company acting like it’s Americans are going to be buying 2X more Tesla EVs and going to win all the government contracts for battery storage.😅ImageTesla's monthly sales out of China came out over the weekend. They weren't pretty.The company has been unable to break 100K in the last two years. Unlikely they will anytime soon. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$
$TSLA is up 37% since Trump won the White House

The Chinese consumer didn’t go away

1.Alibaba Group Holding says this year’s Singles’ Day campaign has seen strong demand in four product categories – home appliances, consumer electronics, beauty and apparel – in a sign of consumer-spending recovery on the mainland, as the world’s largest online shopping festival drew to a close on Monday.”Still light on details but i think we’re getting the picture. The Chinese consumer didn’t go away. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ $MEITUAN(MPNGF)$
The Chinese consumer didn’t go away

China's overall passenger car market is booming

Not too long ago, China's overall passenger car market was negative to flat growth even as NEV sales were soaring. Today, because NEVs already account for more than half of all new car sales, China's overall passenger car market is booming. Total passenger car sales +11.3% YoY to 2.261m or 27 million annualized! That's 50% bigger than the US car market at its peak several years ago.NEV sales in October jumped 56.7% YoY to 1.2 million units.🔥🔥🔥As for Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ it witnessed just a 5.3% YoY growth to 68,280 units. Market share getting smaller by the month. Ouch! $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ $Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.(GELYF)$
China's overall passenger car market is booming

Hong Kong markets recover from post Trump 2024 victory selloff

As expected, yesterday’s China dump was short-lived. Many of these names have recovered all of Wednesday’s losses and are already up even more. Investors are looking at stimulus instead of worrying what Trump will do when he takes office next year. That’s because a good domestic economy - and a strong real estate market - solves a lot of China’s problems.ImageHong Kong markets recover from post Trump 2024 victory selloff. $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ +2.25% led by $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$ $TME-SW(01698)$. Like I said yesterday, makes little sense for the selloff in CN tech sector as most are consumer related domes
Hong Kong markets recover from post Trump 2024 victory selloff

HSTECH closes down on a knee-jerk selloff from Trump victory

$HSTECH(HSTECH)$ closes down 2.5% today on a knee-jerk selloff from Donald Trump victory and implications on US-China trade relations.Oddly enough, it's the Chinese consumer plays that have suffered the brunt of the selling. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$ $KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY(KUASF)$ $Lenovo Group Ltd.(LNVGY)$ $LENOVO GROUP(00992)$
HSTECH closes down on a knee-jerk selloff from Trump victory

HSTECH nearly doubling the gains as of midday

$HSTECH(HSTECH)$ closes up 3.6%, nearly doubling the gains as of midday. The chart now shows it has broken the short-term down trend. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $KraneShares Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(KTEC)$ TikTok-like $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$ $KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY(KUASF)$ booms 10.7% on news the platform is entering the Brazil e-commerce market with Kwai Shop. They already have 60m users in the country for Kuaishou.HK share premiums to ADRs as follows: $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$
HSTECH nearly doubling the gains as of midday

Revisting this beautiful chart of $BABA

Revisting this beautiful chart of $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ . Of course the last thing we want to see is a breakdown below that new trendline.Mainland Chinese investors continue gobbling up shares through the StockConnect. They now own 3.6% or 691.4m shares. That's an increase of 46.9m shares over the past week.My estimates appear to be within ballpark that 20% to 25% of Alibaba's HK trading volume will be driven by mainland investors. That's not nothing.We are hitting peak SinglesDay shopping season in China. Plus, we have a likely boost to consumption via stimulus measures later this week. Expect that boost to be bigger should Trump win back the White House.ImageImage
Revisting this beautiful chart of $BABA

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