BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
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Chips Investigation is going to hurt the US far more than it will China

This is going to hurt the US far more than it will China.The US has very little capacity to produce legacy chips at a realistic price. It is a mass-market product that is quickly being dominated by China, which supplies the global electronics industry. The US can't undo this without causing a great deal of harm to itself and its consumers.Nobody in their right mind will invest tens of billions in legacy chip manufacturing in new locations that don't have the same supply chain ecosystem that China offers - including an endless amount of downstream manufacturers. China accounts for 1/3rd of global electronics manufacturing, much of which ends up on store shelves at $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Target(TGT)$
Chips Investigation is going to hurt the US far more than it will China

$MSTR joining the $QQQ is dumb

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ joining the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is dumb.Where is the fiduciary responsibility by Invesco $Invesco(IVZ)$ to their clients (ETF holders)? It's not a "proxy" to BTC because it trades at an enormous premium to the only asset it holds.Even if MicroStrategy were to be considered a proxy for Bitcoin, it makes little sense to add highly volatile crypto as part of a broad index filled with companies that have an "E" to derive a PE ratio.It's a high-beta play on Bitcoin. Should that be really part of a company-based index?All it does is make sure that about 0.6% of QQQ's $207B AUM (or about $1.2B) flows into MSTR's stock upon inclusion. More Nasdaq 100 E
$MSTR joining the $QQQ is dumb

Tesla is worth more than SEVEN TIMES the entire China EV industry

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's market cap is $1.37 trillion.Alone, it's worth more than SEVEN TIMES the entire China EV industry. $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ $106.83b $GEELY AUTO(00175)$ $Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.(GELYF)$ $19.86b $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ $9.40b $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ $Li Auto(LI)$ $23.46b $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$
Tesla is worth more than SEVEN TIMES the entire China EV industry

Daily Charts - A bad start to a critical month for $NIO

1.A bad start to a critical month for $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ . But to be fair, most major brands except for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ $Li Auto(LI)$ have seen declines during this period. The bar is just set a little higher for Nio and its subbrand ONVO.Image2.Like $Luckin Coffee Inc.(LKNCY)$ , investors left $DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$ for dead after scrutiny of the company after its US IPO. This was close to the height of China tech interest in the US markets and a few
Daily Charts - A bad start to a critical month for $NIO

Gold and silver are rallying once again

Gold and silver are rallying once again. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ This is happening at a time when rates are still restrictive, the US dollar is relatively strong, and a broader war in the Middle East is less likely. What’s driving people to the safety of precious metals?A WORSENING LACK OF FAITH IN FIAT MONEY appearing in the form of INFLATED ASSET PRICES.It’s happening in more places than you think.
Gold and silver are rallying once again

Chip Wars?

Chip Wars? China consumes 50% of the world’s semiconductors. China buys 50% of the world’s chipmaking equipment.China controls 50% to 80% of the key metals processing needed for chips.In business, what normally happens when you piss off your single biggest customer?More importantly, why would you piss them off? Will your countrymen be any better off?By trying to choke off supplies to the biggest buyer, you inevitably create an oversupplied market that will destroy margins.Massive investments in fabs need enormous buyers to be able to turn a profit. Otherwise the innovation wheel stops turning. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
Chip Wars?

TSLA, LULU, KWEB and BABA Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla shares behaving like a Falcon9 rocket. Image2. $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ Lululemon is no 🍋 that’s for sure. While North America sales are down, China is up 36%!!!3. $CSI300(000300.SH)$ Mainland investors keep pouring money into the stock market at a rate that eclipses past bull markets. Yes, China is still in a bull market. The CSI 300 Index is only 6.7% off its recent high closing price in early October. Image4. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ Could be an interestingly good day for KWEB today given the strength in major CN tech stocks in HKEX Group.Image5.
TSLA, LULU, KWEB and BABA Show Strong Bullish Trends

HSTech quietly making gains

Hang Seng Tech Index quietly making gains this Friday (12/6) and reaffirming that breakout from the descending wedge pattern. Like I said previously, the market is too impatient. ➡️There are already signs of a budding recovery in China's property market. ➡️Both manufacturing and services PMI show expansion in November. ➡️Valuations are back to extreme lows when compared with US counterparts.➡️I think we just need to see the US dollar give up some of its recent gains to get a new rally going. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $MEITUAN-W(03690)$
HSTech quietly making gains

PLTR, Pop Mart and ZK Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Palantir going parabolic. If only government-backed data-driven firms in China trading at 1/20th the PE ratio could perform half as well.Image2. $POP MART(09992)$ Hong Kong-listed Pop Mart International Group has outperformed $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and even $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ so far this year with a jaw-dropping 351% gain. If you don't know about the company, just ask your teena
PLTR, Pop Mart and ZK Show Strong Bullish Trends

ASML & BABA Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ ASML is down almost 40% from its highs. It’s still the global leader in EUV and DUV lithography systems. But the effects of geopolitics has taken its toll on shareholders.Image2. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ Mainland investor ownership in Alibaba via the Stock Connect now at 4.21% after they bought up a net 40.2 million more shares over the past week. That's an estimated US$9-10bn flowing into the HK-listed shares since Alibaba joined the Stock Connect in early September. Image3.Despite the failure to launch again on Friday… a very nice hourly chart for BTC.Image
ASML & BABA Show Strong Bullish Trends

The Future of Tech is in China

The best thing to ever happen to China's tech industry was sanctions from the US government. Without sanctions, there would have never been a high incentive and push from the Chinese government to develop so quickly.China simply would have just been America's number one customer and purchased everything like microchips from US companies. But look at what has happened in just a few short years.Chinese tech is developing at record speeds and faster than the US government could ever imagine! Legacy US companies like $Intel(INTC)$ are getting hammered (worst performing stock in $.SPX(.SPX)$ this year) as over 35% of Intel's revenue was from China. But now powerhouse companies like
The Future of Tech is in China

US stocks will be the best-performing asset class in 2025

As the world's largest market by a country mile, the US equities market will continue to attract investment capital from all over the world. I think the rest of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ should catch up with the $The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ as more corporate-friendly policies under Trump lift the rest of the economy.But I have a hard time believing that US stocks will be the best-performing asset class in 2025. That title could end up with gold/silver, onshore Chinese equities, or crypto. $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$
US stocks will be the best-performing asset class in 2025

Chinese ADRs starting off with one of the best days since the September rally ended

Chinese ADRs starting off today with one of the best days since the September rally ended. These names are mostly just turning up from oversold levels and will probably have a couple of weeks to run. There's a chance this corner of the market will end the year in the top 3 best-performing major markets in 2024. Many great companies started out looking like failures or went through enormous challenges in the early days. $KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF(KBA)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $KraneShares Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(KTEC)$ $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$
Chinese ADRs starting off with one of the best days since the September rally ended

Bullish Wedge in $KWEB Stocks

A descending (falling) wedge pattern with declining volume in an already established longer-term uptrend is typically bullish and signals a coming reversal to the upside.There's a good chance $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ and its constituents $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ and others will have a very strong year next year, which drives this
Bullish Wedge in $KWEB Stocks

Hong Kong tech coming to life without any significant catalyst

Hong Kong tech coming to life today without any significant catalyst. This I like seeing. We’ve reached oversold or near oversold levels in many of these names since the October peak. US dollar weakness right around the corner. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $KraneShares Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(KTEC)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $JD-SW(09618)$ ImageHong Kong markets closed W
Hong Kong tech coming to life without any significant catalyst

The tariffs on China aren't cutting demand for Chinese goods

Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and just 10% on China make sense for him.Already $330B worth of Chinese imports to the US are slapped with a 7.5% to 25% tariff since Trump's first term. These weren't lifted by Biden.Adding 25% on top of what exists already isn't just overkill - it's counterproductive. US imports from China are running 2% higher in the first 9 months of 2024.In other words, tariffs on China aren't cutting demand for Chinese goods in any meaningful way.Meanwhile, Mexican exports to the US have surged, replacing China as the US top trade partner. And it's not because Chinese goods are using Mexico to bypass tariffs.US and other Western carmakers are boosting their production in Mexico to serve a US market that has no Chinese competition whatsoever. Vehicles are the top exports
The tariffs on China aren't cutting demand for Chinese goods

Corporate profit margins in the U.S. have never been higher

Corporate profit margins in the U.S. have never been higher. More than 1std deviation from the historic mean. That has a lot to do with the increasingly tech-driven, service-oriented nature of the economy.Forcing manufacturing to come back to the U.S. will likely result in this chart going back to the average range. There's no way America can produce Chinese-made goods anywhere near the same margins without causing inflation to spike. That can't be good for the stock market. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF(KBA)$ Image
Corporate profit margins in the U.S. have never been higher

This company is probably the $MSTR of China

This company is probably the $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ of China. It's called $BOYAA(00434)$ and its claim to fame isn't its profitable core business of game development (i.e. Texas Hold 'em). Instead, it owns 2,688 BTC as of November 21, which is now valued at around $270m. The company's market cap is $474m.ImageWhen the stock price of normal companies explode up because they own a barrel of BTC, the market is telling you something.ImageMSTR has $30 billion worth of BTC, with a Market Cap now of $100 BillionThey have negative earnings and $4 Billion in debt.Am I missing something?
This company is probably the $MSTR of China

"Apple could not do what they do without China" - Truer words have never been spoken

"Apple could not do what they do without China."Truer words have never been spoken.It also tells us that much of the high-end tooling and precision manufacturing required by $Apple(AAPL)$ 's premium products are not in danger of moving to India any time soon.ImageTim Cook is increasingly worried about AAPL's prospects in its 3rd largest market behind the Americas and Europe.Imagine facing the possibility of losing 1/5th of your revenue stream - a market that could have been 2X larger than your current biggest market.But it doesn't stop there. A bigger reason for Cook to worry is that 95% of Apple products are still made in China. India has no hope of replacing it anytime soon.China is also coming up with very formidable alternatives to iPhone with
"Apple could not do what they do without China" - Truer words have never been spoken

China Markets Close on Sour Note Due to Poor Results

China markets suffer technical breakdown to close the week on a sour note. Much of it was driven by (1) poor 3Q results from $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ $BIDU-SW(09888)$ and (2) a rampaging US dollar. We now look for indicators to reach oversold levels as I have indicated a few days ago would be possible if corporate results were not up to snuff.Meanwhile, improvements taking place in real estate market, online retail sales growth at double-digits, NEV sales soaring, domestic brands and benefiting at the expense of foreign ones, and local governments cleaning up balance sheets in preparation for spending in 2025. $K
China Markets Close on Sour Note Due to Poor Results

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