$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan After making new all-time highs on August 14th, $SPX has struggled a bit. There is a very minor downtrend line on the chart right now, after a series of negative days accompanied in general by terrible breadth. That pullback seems to have culminated with a retest of the 7600-7620 support level this past Tuesday, September 1st. That support level is marked with a thick red horizontal line on the $SPX chart in Figure 1. If it gives way, a much more negative picture will emerge, but so far support has held. As for resistance, one can see (from the same chart), that there is a minor downtrend line in place
$NVDA$ $DECU$ $TVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Traders were a bit leery of some potentially volatile events this week, but so far they have not proven to be troublesome. The NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings were positive, and the stock rose. That was a relief to the market. Also, Fed Chair Warsh made the Keynote Address at the Jackson Hole Monetary conference this morning. The market's reaction is muted. There is still resistance at 7740 to overcome (blue horizontal line on the chart in Figure 1), but that is certainly doable. There is major support in the 7600-7640 area, which not only is the level of the previous all-time high, but is also where a gap exist
$GOTU$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Yesterday, I joined the team at tastylive for a conversation about the current market, some of the strategies I’m trading today, and how my approach to options has evolved over the years. We started with the broad market. I remain cautiously bullish, particularly as long as the S&P 500 holds above the 7,600 level. The subdued $VIX and positively sloped volatility term structures are also encouraging, although breadth and new highs versus new lows remain somewhat shaky. From there, we got into some of the strategies I’ve been using recently, including 0DTE index options, put credit spreads combined with upside calls, broken-wing butterflies, and rolling positions as the market moves. We also spent some time
INVST Acquires McMillan: Two Teams. One Standard. One Mission.
$SMP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan McMillan has joined INVST — and the research, advisories, data, and market analysis you rely on will continue. We recently announced an important new chapter in McMillan’s history: INVST has acquired McMillan. For our longtime subscribers, customers, and readers, we want to start with the most important point: McMillan isn’t going away. The research, market commentary, options expertise, advisories, data, indicators, and educational resources that McMillan subscribers have relied on for decades will continue. Larry McMillan and the McMillan team remain actively involved, and our commitment to disciplined, research-driven options analysis remains unchanged. Why INVST? McMillan has always approached the market
INVST Acquires McMillan: Two Teams. One Standard. One Mission.
$SMP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan We’re excited to announce that INVST has acquired McMillan, bringing together two firms built on a shared belief in disciplined investing, deep expertise, and putting clients first. Founded by Larry McMillan, McMillan has spent decades at the forefront of options strategy, investment research, and risk management. Larry’s Options as a Strategic Investment has sold more than 300,000 copies, and the McMillan team has built its reputation around a repeatable, rules-based approach to managing risk and opportunity. Now, that expertise becomes an integrated part of the INVST investment team. For INVST clients, this means greater access to sophisticated options and risk-management strategies, additional resources for ad
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan A week ago, it seemed that $SPX had a renewed upside momentum, as it was making new all- time highs and internal indicators were improving. But there has been no follow-through this week, and it seems that bullish momentum has been lost. The "culprit" seems to be an increase in T-Bond rates, although that hasn't mattered much before. Even so, the $SPX chart remains positive as long as $SPX remains above support at 7600-7620 (the previous all-time highs). The pullback this week nearly reached that level and was a minor test of that support. There is now resistance at 7744 (where a gap was closed on the $
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan After the monster rally of 400 points in just a few days in early August, $SPX took a few days to consolidate. Now it is making new all-time highs once again. There should be some support in that consolidation area (7700-7800), with stronger support at the old highs (7620). There is also a gap at the 7600 level which would act as support as well. There has been a good deal of reluctance on the part of the investment community to climb on board this northbound train. But it finally looks like put buying is slowing down, and the rally is spreading out to more and more issues (i.e., breadth is improving).
By Lawrence G. McMillan A little more than a week ago, the FOMC meeting concluded (on July 29th), and traders were not happy. They sold the market before and after the meeting, closing $SPX that day at 7316. But then a series of events both real and psychological took place that released a buying panic. The net effect of this was that $SPX has broken out to new all- time highs, and has not fallen back below the old highs at 7620. That makes the $SPX chart bullish again, for the first time in a while. Targets are always nebulous things, but this could take $SPX to 8,000 or so. Equity-only put-call ratios have not rolled over to buy signals. As much as $SPX has risen, it has been accompanied by continued buying of puts on stocks. That is for protection most likely. So, even though these put-
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Despite one downward probe on July 29th, $SPX has managed to trade in a range and close at almost the same price every day. Near- term resistance is at 7430. After that failure on the 29th, the market bounced off the 7300 level with a vengeance the next day, so that is support. Even so, if one looks at the chart of $SPX in Figure 1, it is obvious that there is a new downtrend line that can be drawn, connecting the failed rally attempts that took place during July. There is support at 7300 and then 7240, with potential further support near the rising 200-day moving average in the 7100 area (that a
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Despite one downward probe on July 29th, $SPX has managed to trade in a range and close at almost the same price every day. Near- term resistance is at 7430. After that failure on the 29th, the market bounced off the 7300 level with a vengeance the next day, so that is support. Even so, if one looks at the chart of $SPX in Figure 1, it is obvious that there is a new downtrend line that can be drawn, connecting the failed rally attempts that took place during July. There is support at 7300 and then 7240, with potential further support near the rising 200-day moving average in the 7100 area (that a
$DECU$ $QQQY$ $XDTE$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The market has been frustrating to many over the past two months since new all-time highs were made in early June. Bulls expected another attempt at new highs by now, while bears expected a larger correction (given the uncertainties of Iran, interest rates, etc.). But the fact is, $SPX has remained in a trading range over that time. There is currently resistance at 7580 (July's highs) and then at the all-time highs in the 7600-7620 area. Support was broken slightly yesterday, as $SPX probed downward, but there is support at 7300 or slightly above that level, with further support at the July lows near 72
That Old Familiar Song: Volatility Rises in August (Preview)
$RSEE$ $QQQP$ $JULD$ By Lawrence G. McMillan It is once again time to consider that $VIX may have bottomed for the year. It is a common occurrence for $VIX to make its annual lows in July and then begin to rise in August. Sometimes that rise is stupendous, as it was two years ago. Most of the time the annual peak for $VIX is reached in October, which is when the market often sells into a strong bottom. We can compose a seasonal chart of $VIX. Chart 1 encompasses the years 1989 through 2025 (the most recent full year of trading). While there is $VIX data for earlier years, including 1987 and even 1988 distorts things too much. The data in Chart 1 u
$DECU$ $QQQY$ $XDTE$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Buying the dip has been working on an intraday basis recently, but the larger picture is that there are dips to buy almost every day. That means that $SPX is not making much progress. Despite breaking out on the upside from the triangle formation that had existed, it has run into resistance at 7580 and has failed to challenge the all-time highs at 7600-7620. This keeps the $SPX chart from being upgraded to "bullish." Rather, it is range-bound at best. There is support at 7420 the lows of early July. Then below that the lower side of the triangle is still in place, and a breakdown below 7300 would be neg