$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 4, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/IS7gJNWFAMY$GOTU$ 

$TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The major indices are all enjoying a booming bull move to new all- time highs $SPX, $NDX, and $RUT (while the Dow is closing in on its highs as well). This display of strength has occurred in the face of potential geopolitical worries, which indicates that "the market" isn't too concerned with those. $SPX has strong support at 7000 -- the previous all-time highs -- as well as minor support at 7125 and 7050. The equity-only put-call ratios remain solidly bullish in their outlook for stocks. They continue to drop steadily and sharply. As long as they are declining, that is positive for the market. Breadth has been teetering on the verge of a sell signal,

By Lawrence G. McMillan Some traders prefer to see columns of numbers, and others—myself included—prefer to look at graphs or charts. A “profit graph” is a graph of the potential profits and losses from a position. With options, it is possible to describe most of the major strategies by the shape of their profit graphs. A simple example should be sufficient to demonstrate the concept. Example: Suppose that XYZ common stock is trading at 50, and the XYZ July 50 call is selling for 3, or $300. The profit table shown here details the potential profits and losses at various XYZ prices at July expiration. The same information is shown in the profit graph. The image below, which shows that this position has a limited loss on the downside and can make theoretically unlimited profits on the upside

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 27, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/XF5RotmuSkk$GOTU$ 

By Lawrence G. McMillan There are two major approaches to analyzing markets—technical and fundamental. Most investors are familiar with fundamental analysis. That is the process by which analysts attempt to forecast the future profits of a company by analyzing their market penetration, pricing structure, and other things having to do with the actual operation of the company’s business. Technical analysis, on the other hand, has nothing at all to do with the tangible operations of the company. Rather it is an analysis of the price of the company’s stock. Technicians (practitioners of technical analysis) feel that past price patterns leave valuable clues as to the future direction of prices. Technical analysis can be applied to any price pattern—stock, bonds, futures, and so on. There is mer

By Lawrence G. McMillan There are two major approaches to analyzing markets—technical and fundamental. Most investors are familiar with fundamental analysis. That is the process by which analysts attempt to forecast the future profits of a company by analyzing their market penetration, pricing structure, and other things having to do with the actual operation of the company’s business. Technical analysis, on the other hand, has nothing at all to do with the tangible operations of the company. Rather it is an analysis of the price of the company’s stock. Technicians (practitioners of technical analysis) feel that past price patterns leave valuable clues as to the future direction of prices. Technical analysis can be applied to any price pattern—stock, bonds, futures, and so on. There is mer

$TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Several of the major indices ($SPX, $NDX, and $RUT) have made and held new all-time high ground recently. Pullbacks have been small, and it appears that there is still an appetite for buying, despite what might be worries from the Middle East. There is support for $SPX at 7000 (the previous highs). It would not be ideal for the bullish case to see $SPX pull back below 7000, for that would raise the possibility that the upside breakout was false. But, if it did, there should be support near 6750 and then stronger support near 6600. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to decline at a rapid pace. There have been several days recently where call buying was hea

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 20, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/kvHxFKmQyiA$GOTU$ 

$CVB.AU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The major indices are on a roll, with S&P 500 ($SPX; SPY), NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) and now Russell 2000 ($RUT; IWM) all making new all-time highs simultaneously. Back in January and February, $SPX made a new all-time high by a few points on several occasions, but it was never able to put together a strong breakout rally as follow-through. Eventually, that was onerous, and the market fell. But now it appears to be adding to the breakout gains, which is a very positive sign. Technically, there should now be support at 7000 (the old highs). It would be disappointing to see $SPX trade back below 7000 now, but if it did, there should be support at 6800, and then at the bottom of the gap near 6600. There is no

By Lawrence G. McMillan One doesn’t often consider butterfly spreads or condors, say, as short-term speculative strategies. However, they can be, if you set them up that way. The main problem with butterflies, in particular, is that they don’t reach their profit potential until very near expiration (unless the strikes are extremely far apart). Typically a butterfly spread is constructed in this manner: Example:Buy 1 XYZ May 50 call @ 6 Sell 2 XYZ May 60 calls @ 2 Buy 1 XYZ May 70 call @ 1 Net debit : 3 points, or $300 The spread has limited loss and limited profit. The maximum loss is equal to the initial debit of $300 paid for the spread. The maximum loss would be incurred if XYZ were below 50 or above 70 at expiration. The maximum profit occurs at the middle strike at expiration, and in

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 13, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/swkoOcxjtJE$GOTU$ 

$TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan After bottoming near 6300 on March 30th, $SPX has rallied strongly. The first stage was an oversold rally that carried up to resistance just above 6600. Then a temporary cease-fire was announced in the Iran war, and the market exploded with a large upside gap. That move overcame a number of resistance levels, and is now testing resistance just above 6800. There are various pockets of resistance all the way up to the all-time highs at 7000. Support is harder to quantify, because that gap extends all the way down to 6615, which should be support. Let's start with the equity-only put-call ratios. The weighted ratio (Figure 3) is clearly on a buy signal, and th

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 6, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/6IG13ACEPow$GOTU$ 

$MVB.AU$ $TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Volatility continues to be elevated both in terms of realized and implied. $SPX dropped sharply early in the week as various support levels gave way on the $SPX chart. Of primary concern was the violation of the 6475-6550 support area. Eventually, $SPX bottomed on Tuesday, with a low near 6330 which was also a minor low last August. There should also be support near 6200 (the lows of last July). The rally (so far) reached as high as 6610. There are a number of potential resistance points in that area. First is the 200-day Moving Average, which $SPX is now approaching from below. Perhaps more importa

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 30, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Yet5_3y8OjI$GOTU$ 

$VIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The major averages continue to decline, and they are in a seriously bearish mode. Moreover, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows persists, so there is a distinct downtrend line that can be drawn (see Figure 1, purple line). The support level at 6500-6550 that had originally been established back in October and November has been tested. But today, we are nearing 6400, so one has to say that support level has been broken. There is potential support near 6200, which was the low of last July and August (see the chart in Figure 1). Equity-only put-call ratios continue to climb, and that is bearish for stocks. Both ratios made new relative highs yesterday (March 26th) and they are going to remain on sell signals u

$MVB.AU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan If you’ve been following the market closely, you’ve likely noticed that conditions have changed. Volatility is rising. Trends are becoming less reliable. And sentiment indicators are beginning to shift in a more defensive direction. This is the type of environment where many traders struggle—not because opportunities disappear, but because the margin for error becomes much smaller. In markets like this, discipline and structure matter more than ever. When Conditions Change, Your Approach Should Too During strong, trending markets, it’s often possible to rely on momentum and broad participation. That is not what we’re seeing now. Instead, we’re seeing: Increased volatility across indices Weake

$UVXY$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The stock market sold off fairy heavily into the 6500-6550 support zone for $SPX on November 14, but then it rallied strongly off of that support area. That support has been tested several times and continues to get an A+ on the test. But overhead, there is a myriad of resistance, so for now $SPX remains in a trading range. The index has rallied back to and slightly exceeded its declining 20-day moving average, near 6750. Above that, however, there is a downtrend line at about 6850 and then the all-time highs, at 6900. Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to march higher, though, as traders have been steadily buying puts probably more as a protective measure than a bearish speculation. Regardless, as long

By Lawrence G. McMillan We have been trading this seasonal spread annually every year since 1994, except for 1995.  Last year, we were stopped out with a rather large loss after 53 trading days.  The spread was sitting very near our stop one day, and then jumped over six points higher the next day, costing an additional $2,520 per contract.  In its current form, we buy RBOB Gasoline futures and sell Heating Oil futures, with both contracts expiring in February of the following year.  The spread is entered in late November and is normally exited in late December or early January.  We do not use options in the spread.  We have looked many times at trying to incorporate options, but the time value premium of February options bought in November is just too damagin

By Lawrence G. McMillan Stocks sold off early in the week, but traders were sort of waiting around for the NVDA earnings, which were released after the close on Wednesday, November 19th. When those earnings were positive and guidance was positive, a monster rally took place. NVDA itself was up 10 points, but $SPX really took the news in a very positive way, and it rose 110 points on Thursday morning. Then, a harsh dose of reality set in, and $SPX experienced one of the sharpest drops in recent months losing nearly 240 points from its highs, to finish near the lows of the day. Not only that, but signs of panic in the volatility space accompanied that massive price reversal. This has produced some oversold conditions, but "oversold does not mean buy," as we've said hundreds of times before.