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avatarlolmei
2022-04-26
Gross proceeds to Nkarta from this offering are approximately $200 million, before deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and offering expenses and assuming no exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares. Nkarta intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund the continued clinical development of NKX101 and NKX019, preclinical studies for research stage programs and the continued buildout of internal manufacturing capabilities, and for working capital and for general corporate purposes. Cowen, SVB Securities, Evercore ISI and Stifel are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.
avatarlolmei
2022-08-22

PayPal Seemed To Have Found A Bottom In Q2

ThesisPayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock was brutalized lately. Its 2022 Q1 earnings release (“ER”) reported a sharp profit decline AND margin compression. It posted a net income of $0.43 per share in Q1, more than a 50% decline YoY. At the same time, what is even more concerning tome is that its operating margin suffered a 630-basis-point contraction too. The causes of the contraction included higher transaction costs, general & administrative, R&D expenses, and also general inflation.To shareholders’ relief, Q2 results reversed the trend. It reported results beating consensus estimates on both lines. EPS came in at $0.93 (on a Non-GAAP basis), beating the consensus estimate by $0.06. And revenue came in at $6.8B, beating consensus by $20M.More importantly, it reported an expansion in ope
PayPal Seemed To Have Found A Bottom In Q2
avatarlolmei
2022-11-30

The Market Doesn't Think XPeng Will Win The Race

ThesisWe updated investors in ourprevious articleon XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) to be cautious, as we gleaned a significant price top as the market led investors into XPEV's June highs.The market has since digested that momentum surge fromits May lows with breathtaking ruthlessness, sending XPEV spiraling toward a record low in October 2022. As such, XPEV has underperformed its peers significantly since our previous article, as it fell more than 75% from our caution.While we had expected a steep fall, we didn't expect such a massacre. We gleaned that the market had not sent XPEV into a capitulation move. Instead, it was a clear de-rating in Chinese stocks that impacted Chinese equities broadly, with XPEV taking the brunt of the selling.Our assessment suggests that investors could be pulling out
The Market Doesn't Think XPeng Will Win The Race
avatarlolmei
2023-03-08

Disney: Changes Signal Sharper Focus On Profitability, Upgrade To Buy

IntroductionThe Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS$Walt Disney(DIS)$ ) reported1Q23 resultson 08 February 2023. Back in November 2022, the market reacted positively to news that Bob Iger would return for another stint in the CEO seat; whether the bounce in the shareprice was due to excitement about what Iger could achieve or relief that the rather unpopular Bob Chapek was ousted remains unclear. With the 1Q23 result, Iger put forward a game plan for the near-term which triggered another bounce in the share price, however this initial enthusiasm has since quickly faded.In myprevious DIS note, I expressed concerns that bullish comments regarding what Iger could deliver for shareholders during his anticipated two-year tenure were probably too optimistic. I
Disney: Changes Signal Sharper Focus On Profitability, Upgrade To Buy
avatarlolmei
2023-03-07
Apple is Broadcom$Broadcom(AVGO)$ 's largest customer and accounts for approximately 20% of revenue for FY22, or about $7 billion. Yet, while the loss of Apple as a customer would definitely impact Broadcom, the impact is expected to be much lower by 2025 as other parts of Broadcom are growing much faster, decreasing the percentage of revenue derived from Apple. Also, Apple has so far been struggling with replacing Qualcomm and has already had to postpone the release of its own 5G chips a couple of times. It could very well be that the replacement for the Broadcom products will also be finalized much later than 2025, and closer to 2027, giving Broadcom even more time to diversify its revenue stream. Obviously, the acquisition of VMware would alrea
avatarlolmei
01-24
$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ I don’t think PDD will be included in buybacks since it has consistently exceeded analysts estimates and growing much faster than its rivals. That being said, I’m holding on tight to my shares because their revenue rose 94% YoY to 68.84 billion yuan ($9.44 billion), beating analysts’ estimates by $2.02 billion. Their adjusted net income climbed 37% to 17.03 billion yuan ($2.33 billion), or $1.55 per share, clearing the consensus forecast by $0.39 1, and their stock surged 18% in Nov., after the earnings report was released. $PDD has said they plan to spend nearly all revenue on R&D and marketing, meaning no plans for buybacks, dividends, etc (common with growing tech companies) but investors shoul
avatarlolmei
2022-12-05

Grab: Highly Speculative, But Moving In The Right Direction

While we continue to view Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GRAB) as a highly speculative investment, we continue to see the company making progress towards profitability after it reportedthird quarter results. Year-over-year group revenuewas up over 140%, and loss for the period improved substantially. Monthly transacting users also grew 30% y/y, accelerating significantly from the previous two quarters.The company achieved an important milestone during the quarter, with the delivery business turning segment adjusted EBITDA positive for the first time. Another big positive was that revenue for deliveries tripled compared to the same period a year ago.While the company continues to be unprofitable, there is a lot of potential. We, therefore, continue to view Grab as a high risk, high reward ty
Grab: Highly Speculative, But Moving In The Right Direction
avatarlolmei
2023-02-03
Grab$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ is fighting to achieve profitability. In that context the company's CFOcommented:In the quarter, we took action to streamline our organizational cost structure. We optimized our fixed costs, shut unprofitable lines of business and continued to taper incentives as a percentage of GMV.In my opinion, however, Grab's outlook for 2023 profitability could be too confident. There are two major reasons: First, in a recessionary macro-environment it is highly likely that (in my opinion) expensive delivery services will experience amongst the sharpest consumer spending cuts, which would obviously pressure Grab's business model. In that context, in the conference call with analysts Grab's CEO hasadmittedthat:customers want to save m
avatarlolmei
2022-12-17
BAC has fallen steeply since we downgraded it, as it underperformed the S&P 500 significantly.Is the selloff appropriate? At its recent highs, yes, because there was too much optimism over its NII growth that's likely to level off in 2023.Hence, the market has likely focused on whether BAC's current valuation is appropriate for a recession.But, investors need to ask whether the market has priced in a significant recession?We explain why after the recent selloff, we are more constructive over its recovery.
avatarlolmei
2023-01-11

Palantir Q4: What To Expect

Palantir (NYSE:PLTR$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ) has been brutalized in the last twelve months with shares losing 61% of their value due to souring investor sentiment and a slowdown in the firm's top line growth. Although Palantir secured some big contracts with various governmentagencies last year, including from the US Army and the US Space Systems Command, investors appeared to lose interest in the company's growth potential last year. With earnings coming up next month, I am discussing my expectations for Palantir's Q4'22 and lay out what must happen for shares to revalue higher!Strong customer acquisition could drive commercial and financial results in FY 2023Palantir operates two distinct business segments. The first is the gover
Palantir Q4: What To Expect
avatarlolmei
2023-04-25

Alibaba: With The New Reorganization, New Investors Might Benefit Too

SummaryThe new plan of Alibaba will benefit long-term investors.There could also be interesting opportunities for investors who do not hold Alibaba stock, acquiring the shares of its different business units separately.Some institutional investors might divest the shares of some of the business units creating pressure in their prices and opening new opportunities for retail investors.We calculate Alibaba's intrinsic value using the SOTP method with projections for 2026.We discuss briefly the business units that might experience a hypothetical sell off after their IPOs.China International Import Expo (CIIE) - Day OneWe rate Alibaba (NYSE:BABA $Alibaba(BABA)$ ) as a "buy" as the new plan of the company, which is being split into six units, will enab
Alibaba: With The New Reorganization, New Investors Might Benefit Too
avatarlolmei
2022-12-31

Coinbase Short Interest Hits New High

About a month ago, I detailed hownew lows seemed possiblefor shares of cryptocurrency platform Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ). With peer in the space FTX (FTT-USD) seeing its main token crash eventually resulting in FTX filing forbankruptcy, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other coins saw their prices drop considerably. While one might expect that bears might have taken a victory lap and cashed in their profits when it came to Coinbase, recent data shows that the naysayers are still looking for more downside.I coveredthe initial surgefor short interest in Coinbase back in late June, as in just a month and half the number of shares short had surged from 9.5 million to over 31.4 million. 2022 started at just over 3.5 million shares short, but one might have expected to see some r
Coinbase Short Interest Hits New High
avatarlolmei
2022-10-11
We don’t mind buying deeply cyclical stocks like Micron. We just mind buying them near a cyclical peak.Actually, for accounts with long-term horizons like the UTMA account we manage for our son, deep cyclicality only creates opportunities.Buying cyclical stock like MU at a secularly low valuation like now creates the potential for 20%+ annualized total return in the next 5 to 10 years.
avatarlolmei
2022-05-25

SoFi: The Rise And Fall Of Fintech's Golden Boy

This market has been brutal. Nowhere has this been highlighted more than for previously high flying fintech company SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) which saw its stock price cut in half from its all-time high and then cut in half again. Overall, the stockis down 70.9% from its 52-week high, a material fall for a company once described as being at the intersection of growth and alpha. Why did this happen? And what comes next? The collapse of SoFi did not happen in isolation. It was part of a broader historic market pullback that has now left the early 2020 pandemic crash in its rearview. In hindsight, pre-revenue companies trading at multi-billion valuations should have been a cause for pause and concern. But SoFi was different. Indeed, revenue was ramping across its multiple business verticals as it c
SoFi: The Rise And Fall Of Fintech's Golden Boy
avatarlolmei
2022-04-26

Coca-Cola Stock: DCF Analysis Shows Bubbly Valuation

There is a certain simplicity to analyzing mature stage companies. While surprises certainly come along, it can be assumed that things are going to keep going as they have been going, more or less. It is in that spirit thatI am going to take a look at Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) today, focused primarily on valuation. Bottom line up front: I don't see a feasible scenario in which KO is worth what they are trading for on a per share basis currently, at least as it relates their cash generation potential. So why is the market putting a premium on ownership of this legacy beverage manufacturer? I share my thoughts. Coca-Cola Stock -Discounted Cash Flow Analysis It has repeatedly been iterated by many investing greats that the value of a business is dependent on the total cash flows it can generate, su
Coca-Cola Stock: DCF Analysis Shows Bubbly Valuation
avatarlolmei
2022-08-01

The VIX Futures Curve Was Recently In Backwardation, Why UVXY Might Be Peaking

SummaryMarket fears are back at their highest levels since March 2020 as higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and the likelihood of an economic slowdown have contributed to continued uncertainties for equity markets. With the S&P 500 Index (SPX) down over 22% YTD along with most sectors in the red (ex-energy), short-term investors may be seeking to earn returns through other asset classes. Many turn to volatility markets, which have spiked considerably during the second quarter of 2022.One popular VIX ETF product investors can use is the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS:UVXY). This investment vehicle, asdescribedby the well-known ETF issuer ProShares, "seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one and one-half times (1.5x) the
The VIX Futures Curve Was Recently In Backwardation, Why UVXY Might Be Peaking
avatarlolmei
2022-11-08

Bank of America: Don't Be Fooled

What happened?I bought a 1/2 position in Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) last Friday prior to the earnings announcement for my Seeking Alpha marketplace service,The Winter Warrior Investor.This was due to my duediligence informing me the odds favored the bank beating on the top and bottom lines and experiencing a pop due to it trading near 52 week lows. That is exactly what occurred.Bank of America topped consensus estimates on higher net interest income and strong consumer demand.Key SlidesThe bank experienced solid organic growth across all geographic and business segments.Consumers remain strong, with growth up 12% year-to-date and coming in at $3.1 trillion year-over-year.Third quarter highlights Per Bank of America.Major upside opportunityWith BAC stock trading near its lows an
Bank of America: Don't Be Fooled
avatarlolmei
2023-01-07

Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In

Carnival (NYSE:CCL$Carnival(CCL)$ ) stock surged after it was announced that it would increase costs pertaining to accommodation and add-ons. The company said it would increase gratuities by$1.5 per roomand Wi-Fi charges by $1.7 per day (anear 10% increase).Although resilient input costs played a role in its decision-making framework, Carnival's new pricing mandate suggests that demand is robust, despite global recession fears. In my opinion, the financial markets interpreted Carnival's price increases as a positive move, which could set the firm back on track toward profitability.Is the market acting rationally, or are Carnival's prospects gloomy? Let's find out!Operational Update & Key MetricsRecovery RouteCarnival's operations were dented during the past three years due to an array
Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In
avatarlolmei
2023-03-13

Google: Don't Fight The Trend (Technical Analysis, Rating Downgrade)

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG$Alphabet(GOOG)$ ) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has returned over 18% to investors who followed my last call, as I expected the stock to form the last leg of its corrective wave formation. The stock has successively dropped in a new downtrendand is heading into more weakness also confirmed by its most relevant industries and benchmarks. In this article, I discuss technical elements that underscore the increasingly high chances of seeing the stock performing poorly, while I also discuss the possibility of a more positive outcome. All elements considered lead me to qualify the stock as a hold position, while I would certainly not enter or add exposure in GOOG.A quick look at the big pictureThe US communication services sector continues to be
Google: Don't Fight The Trend (Technical Analysis, Rating Downgrade)
avatarlolmei
2022-08-18

Palantir: An Investment For Your Decedents' Financial Future

Palantir Technologies (NYSE:NYSE:PLTR) is a public American software company with a market capitalization of $20 billion. The company has dropped roughly 70% from its 52-week high, joining in on a strong technology sell-off. However, despite that, the company continues to have substantial earnings potential, makingit a valuable investment.Palantir 2Q 2022 HighlightsPalantir had an impressivequarterdespite the market's opinion on it.Palantir Investor PresentationThe company is still in growth mode and growing rapidly. Revenue grew to almost $500 million in the quarter with a customer count of more than 300. That's an almost doubling of the company's customer count. The company's U.S. business generated more than $1 billion in TTM revenue and the company's US commercial revenue has grown eve
Palantir: An Investment For Your Decedents' Financial Future

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