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点点的小爸爸

点点的小爸爸

一名外出务工者

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点点的小爸爸

2022-09-12

🙄

"Wei Xiaoli" are once again "rolled up" together.

点点的小爸爸

2024-10-08

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

点点的小爸爸

2023-06-21

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点点的小爸爸

2023-06-17

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ Mark

点点的小爸爸

2022-08-19

(•̀⌄•́)

Behind the US stock market rebound: Quantitative funds close short positions, are they poised for another 100 days of gains?

点点的小爸爸

2022-08-18

（ '▿ ' ）

@新行情:3個月連關2店，打破24年不閉店神話，宜家大潰敗

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Mark","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a0afb82c55be81a47100b877af9dd82","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188217609916520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":663325471,"gmtCreate":1662966151698,"gmtModify":1676537173044,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484871130175544","authorIdStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🙄","listText":"🙄","text":"🙄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/663325471","repostId":"2266319619","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266319619","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662964113,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266319619?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-12 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Wei Xiaoli\" are once again \"rolled up\" together.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266319619","media":"燃次元","summary":"随着蔚来公布2022年第二季度的财务数据，国内“造车新势力”第一梯队的三家成员，“蔚小理”已全部发布了今年上半年的成绩单。这三份成绩单的数据似乎都有些“差强人意”。第二季度，蔚来、小鹏、理想分别实现总","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The financial data for the second quarter of 2022 has been released. All three members of the first tier of domestic \"new car manufacturers\", including \"Wei Xiaoli\", have released their performance reports for the first half of this year.</p><p>The data on these three report cards all seem somewhat \"unsatisfactory\".</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto achieved total revenue of RMB 10.292 billion, RMB 7.436 billion, and RMB 8.73 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 21.8%, 97.7%, and 73.3%. While total revenue increased year-on-year, the net losses of the three companies were RMB 2.745 billion, RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 618 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 316.4%, 126.1% and 163% respectively.</p><p>Wei Xiaoli, whose net losses far exceeded its revenue growth, seems to have confirmed the prediction that new energy vehicles would \"lose more and more money the more they sell.\" To make matters worse, Wei Xiaoli did not deliver satisfactory sales figures in August, which just ended. Instead, it was overtaken by members of the second tier of \"new car manufacturers\" such as Leapmotor, Nezha Auto, and AITO.</p><p>In response, Liu Ying, research director of the automotive and mobility industry at Analysys, commented that, on the one hand, the domestic epidemic has repeatedly limited the delivery speed of \"emerging car manufacturers,\" while chip shortages and rising prices of new energy batteries have also had a certain impact on production. However, with the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, it is believed that the delivery speed will gradually increase.</p><p>As Liu Ying said, \"Wei Xiaoli\" gave optimistic forecasts for its vehicle sales and deliveries in the second half of the year at its second-quarter earnings conference.</p><p>Li Auto has already directly responded to its plans to discontinue production of the \"Li Auto ONE\" and is full of confidence in the future performance of the new L9. Li Auto stated, \"By September, we will deliver more than 10,000 L9s.\"</p><p>Nio also stated that the second half of 2022 will be a crucial period for Nio to expand production and deliver multiple new products. The ES7 will begin mass delivery in August, and the ET5 will begin mass production and delivery at the end of September. The company is very confident in market demand, but the core of delivery still depends on the supply chain and production capacity.</p><p>While domestic delivery data is under pressure, Weixiaoli's exploration in the European market has also attracted much attention.</p><p>As a \"pioneer\" in the overseas expansion of \"Wei Xiaoli\", Nio stated in its second-quarter earnings call that it will accelerate its overseas expansion in Europe. In addition, XPeng has also exported its cars to some European countries and regions. However, data shows that \"Wei Xiaoli\" has not yet \"conquered\" overseas markets.</p><p>The domestic delivery climb is difficult, and the overseas market is even harder to break through, forcing \"Wei Xiaoli\" to \"roll up\" into a newer story. It's clear from the strategies of the three companies that their new stories seem to have a high degree of overlap in terms of high-end development and the integration of software and hardware.</p><p>However, can \"Wei Xiaoli\", which has once again \"swept\" together, return to the \"peak\" of the first tier of \"new car manufacturers\"?</p><p>Domestic performance was unsatisfactory.</p><p>Judging from the released second-quarter data, \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to be having a tough time.</p><p>First, the vehicle delivery data is unsatisfactory.</p><p>Data shows that deliveries in both Nio and XPeng have increased. In August, Nio and XPeng delivered 10,677 and 9,578 vehicles respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 81.6% and 33%. However, Li Auto delivered only 4,571 vehicles in August, a year-on-year decrease of 51.5% compared to 9,433 vehicles in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking at the month-on-month data, only Nio saw a slight increase of 6.2% compared to 10,052 vehicles delivered in July. XPeng and Li Auto saw month-on-month decreases of 17% and 56% in deliveries, respectively.</p><p>Compared to the August deliveries of other \"emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,\" the weakness of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is even more obvious. According to statistics from Cheyu Wujiang, among the top ten emerging car manufacturers in China in terms of delivery volume in August, \"Wei Xiaoli\" ranked fifth, seventh and ninth respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb1b3f4c8ab80c529a174041ab989c86\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: Vehicle Domain Boundless Statistics, Burning Dimension Mapping</p><p>It is worth noting that the top three emerging automakers in terms of delivery volume in August were traditional automakers undergoing transformation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>And GAC, and Nezha Auto, from the second tier of \"emerging car manufacturers\". Afterwards, in cooperation with Huawei<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Seres</a>The newly launched Wenjie series also achieved a breakthrough in sales, with 10,045 units delivered, surpassing XPeng and Li Auto, and almost on par with Nio.</p><p>Many industry insiders attribute the current state of Weixiaoli's August delivery data to the disappearance of the \"Weixiaoli effect\". Zhang Junyi, a board partner at Oliver Wyman and former managing partner at Nio Capital, said that it is too early to judge that the \"Wei Xiaoli\" effect has disappeared solely because of this. \"Wei Xiaoli\" performed poorly in August, which was the result of a combination of cyclical and sporadic factors.</p><p>Zhang Junyi further analyzed that, in terms of cyclical factors, emerging electric vehicle manufacturers themselves have a platform period for development and a challenging period for product switching, in addition, summer is not the peak sales season for automakers. Therefore, some automakers will choose to rest their factories or launch iterative products at this time.</p><p>In terms of isolated factors, such as the resurgence of the epidemic in some regions and insufficient power supply, will affect the delivery and production speed of automakers. \"The impact will be even greater on companies like 'emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,' which have few outlets and relatively concentrated production scale,\" Zhang Junyi stated frankly.</p><p>On one hand, sales are unsatisfactory, and on the other hand, \"Weixiaoli\" has not yet achieved a breakthrough in profitability.</p><p>According to the second-quarter financial report of \"Wei Xiaoli\", the net losses of the three automakers this quarter were RMB 2.745 billion, RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 618 million respectively, representing loss increases of 316%, 126.1% and 163% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>Although both companies are experiencing widening losses, the reasons why the three companies, \"Wei Xiaoli\" and \"Wei Xiaoli,\" are \"losing more and more money the more they sell\" are not entirely the same.</p><p>Among them, Li Auto's revenue growth rate could not keep up with the growth rate of operating expenses. Financial reports show that Li Auto achieved total revenue of RMB 8.73 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.7% compared to the first quarter. However, in comparison, Ideal's operating expenses in the second quarter were RMB 2.86 billion, an increase of more than 90% year-on-year and 10.9% quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that Li Auto's sales expenses in the second quarter were RMB 1.33 billion, an increase of 58.6% year-on-year. Li Auto attributed the increase in sales expenses to \"the expansion of personnel involved in expanding the sales network and the increase in rent costs.\"</p><p>Judging from Li Auto's store data, Li Auto has indeed expanded significantly. In the second quarter of last year, Li Auto had 114 physical stores in 69 cities across the country, while in the second quarter of this year, Li Auto has 265 physical stores in 118 cities across the country, with the number of physical stores increasing by 132% year-on-year.</p><p>However, such channel expansion does not seem to have brought satisfactory sales growth to Li Auto, especially during the special period when the \"Li Auto ONE\" announced the discontinuation of production and the L9 failed to be delivered in large quantities.</p><p>However, Li Auto itself is full of confidence in the future performance of its new product, the L9, which is being iterated. At its second-quarter earnings call, Li Auto stated that many potential customers of the Li Auto ONE became L9 customers after seeing the L9, even though there was a significant price difference between the two cars. Based on this, Li Auto is very confident that the L9 will be used by customers who will undertake the iteration of the Li Auto ONE in the future.</p><p>In response, Zhang Junyi stated that this is a normal product iteration. \"The current iteration rate of new energy vehicles may be between 4 and 5 years, which is faster than the iteration rate of traditional fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>According to Zhang Junyi, there are four main reasons for this phenomenon. First, product technologies themselves are iterating at an increasingly rapid pace, and vehicle models need to be adjusted to introduce and embody these technologies; Secondly, many consumers are currently used to replacing their cars every 4-5 years. Therefore, automakers need to keep up with this pace in order to accommodate the replacement of consumers with new products. Third, the early models of new car manufacturers are also a process of summarization and improvement, which will be faster than general iteration; Fourth, new R&D investment is more concentrated on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Electric vehicles will lead to a faster iteration of new energy vehicles than gasoline vehicles during the same period.</p><p>Chai Daixuan, director of CIC Consulting, expressed a different view on the current iteration rate of new energy vehicles. Chai Daixuan said, \"At present, the phase-out cycle of electric vehicles will not be shortened to less than five years.\"</p><p>Chai Daixuan further analyzed the reasons for this: First, for pure electric vehicles, the service life of power batteries is 5-8 years. Secondly, my country stipulates that key components of new energy vehicles (batteries, electronic controls, and motors) provide a warranty of no less than 8 years or 120,000 kilometers. During this period, repairs are completely free, which will indirectly reduce the frequency of consumers replacing their electric vehicles.</p><p>Unlike Li Auto, which is in the product iteration phase, Nio and XPeng \"stumbled\" in the process of controlling production costs.</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio' gross profit margin was 13%, down 30.1% from 18.6% in the same period last year and down 11% from 14.6% in the previous quarter. XPeng also faced a decline in gross profit margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. In the second quarter, XPeng' gross profit margin was 9.1%, compared to 11% in the same period last year, while the gross profit margin in the previous quarter was 10.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.6%.</p><p>XPeng and Nio gave similar reasons for the failure to control production costs: rising battery costs. Both XPeng and Nio have stated that the impact of rising battery costs will be offset by the launch of some high-priced cars.</p><p>Xiao Yu, a veteran in the automotive industry, said that because Li Auto initially chose range-extended ranges, it had an advantage in production costs compared to XPeng and Nio. This is why Li Auto's gross profit margin did not decline significantly as battery costs rose. \"XPeng and Nio, which insist on pure electric vehicles, must mitigate the impact of cost increases by raising car prices, thereby stabilizing gross profit margins. This is also one of the reasons why XPeng and Nio are accelerating their high-end development.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added, \"Controlling the cost of raw materials for complete vehicles is not a problem that can be solved by a few emerging players. Instead, the cost of the entire industry can only be systematically controlled when the deliveries and production volume of the emerging players have increased significantly.\"</p><p>Overseas business faces numerous obstacles</p><p>Wei Xiaoli, which is struggling to climb the ladder in China, is also looking to the international market.</p><p>In mid-June this year, after the Nio new product launch event, Li Bin told the outside world that he would resolutely go to Europe and the United States. \"China is the most 'volatile' place in the world. If you can survive in China, there is no reason why you can't survive in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>During its second-quarter earnings call, Nio also stated that the ET7 will begin deliveries to European countries and regions this year.</p><p>In fact, Nio had already established a research and development center in Silicon Valley as early as 2015. During the earnings call, Nio stated that the company had not been to the United States for some time due to the pandemic, so last month the company visited its R&D center in Silicon Valley to check on the progress of the work. Nio optimistically stated, \"The time is getting closer and closer for Nio to enter the US market.\"</p><p>In Europe, in May 2021, Nio released its Norway strategy, officially announcing its entry into the Norwegian market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Li Auto also stated that it is currently accelerating the improvement of its layout in overseas markets, including studying product usage habits in overseas markets and exploring and deploying channels, and has also established a team focused on this project. Earlier, in September 2020, the first batch<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It has also been sent to Norway.</p><p>\"The reason why both Nio and XPeng see Norway as a 'springboard' for attacking Europe is inseparable from Norway's friendly policies on new energy vehicles,\" Xiaoyu said. First of all, as a non-EU country, Norway has relatively lower requirements for car companies. In addition, the Norwegian government's strong support for the development of new energy vehicles in many aspects has also reduced the overall difficulty of automobile exports.</p><p>At the same time, Zhang Junyi stated that the further overseas expansion of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is an inevitable trend. \"The overseas expansion of 'Weixiaoli' is an inevitable trend in an environment where the quality of Chinese manufacturing is getting better and better. In the past, Chinese companies exported more to Asian, African and Latin American countries and regions. Now, with the improvement of China's productivity and product capabilities, exporting to the European and American markets is an inevitable path.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added that, in fact, the product strength of domestically produced new energy vehicles is competitive in the European market. \"Judging from the development of platforms, products and technologies, in recent years, domestic policies have strongly supported and promoted new energy vehicle companies very quickly. It can be said that some aspects have exceeded the capabilities of Europe, which is another reason why new players have been able to enter Europe.\"</p><p>\"On the other hand, the development of overseas business may also play a role in promoting the development of the domestic market,\" Zhang Junyi continued. Taking NIO as an example, Nio Auto directly benchmarks against high-end car brands such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW. To build such a brand, continuous internationalization is necessary. \"Even if new players are currently focusing on the domestic market, as their overseas business gradually matures, domestic consumers will perceive the brand's international influence, thereby promoting the growth of sales in the domestic market. Therefore, even if it doesn't make money, the overseas business still needs to 'gain publicity'.\"</p><p>However, emerging players going global also seem to have performed poorly in terms of sales figures.</p><p>According to Titanium Media, in the Norwegian market, the best-selling Chinese...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>The model is the Polestar 2, and its total sales from January to May were 1,984 units. In contrast, according to eu-evs data, XPeng and Nio delivered only 474 and 200 vehicles respectively in the European market in 2021.</p><p>\"This difference in magnitude is largely related to the fact that 'Wei Xiaoli', as a brand-new domestic brand, has not yet established its brand influence,\" Xiaoyu said. Polestar was originally a Swedish brand in Europe, but was later acquired by Volvo, and then Geely participated in the investment. Therefore, Polestar is not considered a \"homegrown\" Chinese brand. \"Wei Xiaoli\" is different. In overseas markets, their influence needs to be built up little by little from scratch, which takes time.</p><p>Regarding the future competitive landscape of \"Wei Xiaoli\" in overseas markets, Zhang Junyi said, \"In fact, some of the paths that 'Wei Xiaoli' has taken in the domestic market can be tried to see if they can be adapted to the European and American markets.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi cited NIO as an example, saying that Nio defines \"user experience\" as pre-sales, while most European and American markets usually define \"user experience\" more as after-sales service. This advanced user experience design has already gained some acceptance among domestic consumers, and this structural adjustment can also be applied to the European and American markets.</p><p>\"However, in terms of product design, 'Wei Xiaoli' needs to do more localized design, instead of directly taking cars mass-produced in China to undergo European standard approval and then directly launching them on the market,\" Zhang Junyi further said. In order to make good localized products, 'Wei Xiaoli' may need to establish a dedicated research department in overseas markets in the future to launch targeted products based on the different needs of different market segments and grasp the preferences of different consumers.</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\" Story 2.0</p><p>In addition to similarities in their overseas market layout, the new story of \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to have several other commonalities, namely the combination of high-end products and software and hardware.</p><p>Nio, which has always focused on high-end products, still insists on its strategy of high-priced cars. At the recently concluded Chengdu International Auto Show, Nio unveiled the ET5's interior for the first time, with a guide price of 328,000-386,000 yuan, while the ES7, which began deliveries in August, is priced starting at 468,000 yuan.</p><p>The XPeng G9 comes in four versions, priced at 296,800 yuan, 326,800 yuan, 376,800 yuan, and 436,800 yuan respectively. Its flagship Xopera music cockpit options are priced as high as 16,800 yuan. Li Auto is no exception; its L9, which was launched in June this year, has a guide price of 459,800 yuan.</p><p>It's easy to see that the first step in \"Wei Xiaoli\"'s high-end development starts with price.</p><p>Regarding the trend of NIO, Xiaoli, and others collectively \"sweeping\" into the high-end market, Zhang Junyi stated that this is partly to address the aforementioned decline in gross profit margin, and partly to reflect the upgrading of domestic manufacturing.</p><p>\"The government also hopes that automakers can produce products with stronger product capabilities and greater brand effect, rather than relying solely on subsidies from new energy policies to penetrate lower-tier cities,\" Zhang Junyi further stated. Moreover, vehicles are ultimately consumer goods, and any consumer brand of luxury goods always has a higher risk resistance capability. Therefore, automakers also hope to enhance their revenue resilience through continuous high-end development.</p><p>To successfully compete in the high-end market, \"user experience\" is the essential brand value. Clearly, \"Wei Xiaoli\" is well aware of this importance and has been improving the intelligentization of its products and the technology of combining software and hardware.</p><p>For example, the story about the intelligent cockpit told by the Nio ES7. As the first SUV released on the Nio NT2 platform, the ES7 is equipped with PanoCinema, a panoramic digital cockpit that uses AR/VR technology. Just two days before releasing its second-quarter financial report, NIO also released the NIO Air AR Glasses, a native automotive AR Glasses developed in collaboration with AR equipment company nreal. The first batch consisted of 800 pairs, with a pre-sale price of 2,299 yuan.</p><p>Similar to Nio, Li Auto has also begun its development of AR glasses. September 2nd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The affiliated company, Beijing Chehejia Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., has been granted two design patents for \"VR glasses\" and \"rings\".</p><p>\"This is a win-win cooperation.\" Regarding the phenomenon of \"emerging car manufacturers\" \"focusing\" on wearable devices, Zhang Junyi said that for automakers, on the one hand, even if the interior space is larger than before and there is a display screen, the rear passengers may not be able to see the screen due to the limitations of the interior structure. VR glasses can further overcome the limitations of the interior space, which is an improvement in the vehicle experience itself. On the other hand, VR devices, including Nio automakers' layout of mobile phones, are all aimed at further extending the human-computer interaction experience beyond the in-vehicle infotainment system.</p><p>On the other hand, XPeng, which has always focused on intelligentization, has made a focus on assisted driving and auditory experience. At the Chengdu International Auto Show, XPeng stated that the G9 boasts industry-first full-scenario intelligent driver assistance, starting from a parking space, traveling through parking lots, low-speed parks, urban roads, urban expressways, highways, etc., until it reaches and moors into the final parking space, providing intelligent driver assistance throughout the entire process.</p><p>In addition, the Xopera XPeng Concert Hall, released at the same time as the G9, is a new attempt by XPeng to combine automotive hardware and software. Official data shows that it can control interior noise within 35 decibels (when the vehicle is stationary).</p><p>Regarding why XPeng chose music as one of the highlights of its software and hardware integration, a supplier with deep cooperation with XPeng told Ranciyuan Analysis, \"The XPeng G9 has more space than previously released SUVs, and the combination of music and large space can maximize the added value of the interior space.\"</p><p>Xiaoyu stated that in addition to increasing the added value of the high-end route, the integration of software and hardware is also an advantage for emerging automakers compared to traditional automakers in their transformation. The interaction between hardware and software is not only a technological breakthrough, but also requires the full cooperation of various departments in terms of organization. However, the effective R&D and management processes of mainstream traditional automakers over the past few decades have become increasingly prominent in the face of electrification transformation, such as complex organizational structures, lengthy processes, and poor internal information communication. The established internal interest groups have great resistance and resistance to change, which has led to them being relatively conservative and passive in the development and layout of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, \"emerging car manufacturers\" have inherent internet attributes and flat management in their organizational structures. Their founders are essentially product managers of the emerging companies they belong to. Compared with traditional automakers, the cross-departmental communication and collaboration costs of emerging automakers, supported by the advantage of reduced technology development difficulty, have greatly improved product development efficiency.</p><p>At present, although the three members of the first tier of \"new car manufacturers\" are working hard to tell new stories, it may not be easy for \"Wei Xiaoli\" to tell new stories well under the multiple competitive pressures of the second tier catching up and the active transformation of traditional car companies.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1601869087353","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Wei Xiaoli\" are once again \"rolled up\" together.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Wei Xiaoli\" are once again \"rolled up\" together.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">燃次元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-12 14:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The financial data for the second quarter of 2022 has been released. All three members of the first tier of domestic \"new car manufacturers\", including \"Wei Xiaoli\", have released their performance reports for the first half of this year.</p><p>The data on these three report cards all seem somewhat \"unsatisfactory\".</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto achieved total revenue of RMB 10.292 billion, RMB 7.436 billion, and RMB 8.73 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 21.8%, 97.7%, and 73.3%. While total revenue increased year-on-year, the net losses of the three companies were RMB 2.745 billion, RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 618 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 316.4%, 126.1% and 163% respectively.</p><p>Wei Xiaoli, whose net losses far exceeded its revenue growth, seems to have confirmed the prediction that new energy vehicles would \"lose more and more money the more they sell.\" To make matters worse, Wei Xiaoli did not deliver satisfactory sales figures in August, which just ended. Instead, it was overtaken by members of the second tier of \"new car manufacturers\" such as Leapmotor, Nezha Auto, and AITO.</p><p>In response, Liu Ying, research director of the automotive and mobility industry at Analysys, commented that, on the one hand, the domestic epidemic has repeatedly limited the delivery speed of \"emerging car manufacturers,\" while chip shortages and rising prices of new energy batteries have also had a certain impact on production. However, with the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, it is believed that the delivery speed will gradually increase.</p><p>As Liu Ying said, \"Wei Xiaoli\" gave optimistic forecasts for its vehicle sales and deliveries in the second half of the year at its second-quarter earnings conference.</p><p>Li Auto has already directly responded to its plans to discontinue production of the \"Li Auto ONE\" and is full of confidence in the future performance of the new L9. Li Auto stated, \"By September, we will deliver more than 10,000 L9s.\"</p><p>Nio also stated that the second half of 2022 will be a crucial period for Nio to expand production and deliver multiple new products. The ES7 will begin mass delivery in August, and the ET5 will begin mass production and delivery at the end of September. The company is very confident in market demand, but the core of delivery still depends on the supply chain and production capacity.</p><p>While domestic delivery data is under pressure, Weixiaoli's exploration in the European market has also attracted much attention.</p><p>As a \"pioneer\" in the overseas expansion of \"Wei Xiaoli\", Nio stated in its second-quarter earnings call that it will accelerate its overseas expansion in Europe. In addition, XPeng has also exported its cars to some European countries and regions. However, data shows that \"Wei Xiaoli\" has not yet \"conquered\" overseas markets.</p><p>The domestic delivery climb is difficult, and the overseas market is even harder to break through, forcing \"Wei Xiaoli\" to \"roll up\" into a newer story. It's clear from the strategies of the three companies that their new stories seem to have a high degree of overlap in terms of high-end development and the integration of software and hardware.</p><p>However, can \"Wei Xiaoli\", which has once again \"swept\" together, return to the \"peak\" of the first tier of \"new car manufacturers\"?</p><p>Domestic performance was unsatisfactory.</p><p>Judging from the released second-quarter data, \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to be having a tough time.</p><p>First, the vehicle delivery data is unsatisfactory.</p><p>Data shows that deliveries in both Nio and XPeng have increased. In August, Nio and XPeng delivered 10,677 and 9,578 vehicles respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 81.6% and 33%. However, Li Auto delivered only 4,571 vehicles in August, a year-on-year decrease of 51.5% compared to 9,433 vehicles in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking at the month-on-month data, only Nio saw a slight increase of 6.2% compared to 10,052 vehicles delivered in July. XPeng and Li Auto saw month-on-month decreases of 17% and 56% in deliveries, respectively.</p><p>Compared to the August deliveries of other \"emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,\" the weakness of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is even more obvious. According to statistics from Cheyu Wujiang, among the top ten emerging car manufacturers in China in terms of delivery volume in August, \"Wei Xiaoli\" ranked fifth, seventh and ninth respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb1b3f4c8ab80c529a174041ab989c86\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: Vehicle Domain Boundless Statistics, Burning Dimension Mapping</p><p>It is worth noting that the top three emerging automakers in terms of delivery volume in August were traditional automakers undergoing transformation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>And GAC, and Nezha Auto, from the second tier of \"emerging car manufacturers\". Afterwards, in cooperation with Huawei<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Seres</a>The newly launched Wenjie series also achieved a breakthrough in sales, with 10,045 units delivered, surpassing XPeng and Li Auto, and almost on par with Nio.</p><p>Many industry insiders attribute the current state of Weixiaoli's August delivery data to the disappearance of the \"Weixiaoli effect\". Zhang Junyi, a board partner at Oliver Wyman and former managing partner at Nio Capital, said that it is too early to judge that the \"Wei Xiaoli\" effect has disappeared solely because of this. \"Wei Xiaoli\" performed poorly in August, which was the result of a combination of cyclical and sporadic factors.</p><p>Zhang Junyi further analyzed that, in terms of cyclical factors, emerging electric vehicle manufacturers themselves have a platform period for development and a challenging period for product switching, in addition, summer is not the peak sales season for automakers. Therefore, some automakers will choose to rest their factories or launch iterative products at this time.</p><p>In terms of isolated factors, such as the resurgence of the epidemic in some regions and insufficient power supply, will affect the delivery and production speed of automakers. \"The impact will be even greater on companies like 'emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,' which have few outlets and relatively concentrated production scale,\" Zhang Junyi stated frankly.</p><p>On one hand, sales are unsatisfactory, and on the other hand, \"Weixiaoli\" has not yet achieved a breakthrough in profitability.</p><p>According to the second-quarter financial report of \"Wei Xiaoli\", the net losses of the three automakers this quarter were RMB 2.745 billion, RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 618 million respectively, representing loss increases of 316%, 126.1% and 163% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>Although both companies are experiencing widening losses, the reasons why the three companies, \"Wei Xiaoli\" and \"Wei Xiaoli,\" are \"losing more and more money the more they sell\" are not entirely the same.</p><p>Among them, Li Auto's revenue growth rate could not keep up with the growth rate of operating expenses. Financial reports show that Li Auto achieved total revenue of RMB 8.73 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.7% compared to the first quarter. However, in comparison, Ideal's operating expenses in the second quarter were RMB 2.86 billion, an increase of more than 90% year-on-year and 10.9% quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that Li Auto's sales expenses in the second quarter were RMB 1.33 billion, an increase of 58.6% year-on-year. Li Auto attributed the increase in sales expenses to \"the expansion of personnel involved in expanding the sales network and the increase in rent costs.\"</p><p>Judging from Li Auto's store data, Li Auto has indeed expanded significantly. In the second quarter of last year, Li Auto had 114 physical stores in 69 cities across the country, while in the second quarter of this year, Li Auto has 265 physical stores in 118 cities across the country, with the number of physical stores increasing by 132% year-on-year.</p><p>However, such channel expansion does not seem to have brought satisfactory sales growth to Li Auto, especially during the special period when the \"Li Auto ONE\" announced the discontinuation of production and the L9 failed to be delivered in large quantities.</p><p>However, Li Auto itself is full of confidence in the future performance of its new product, the L9, which is being iterated. At its second-quarter earnings call, Li Auto stated that many potential customers of the Li Auto ONE became L9 customers after seeing the L9, even though there was a significant price difference between the two cars. Based on this, Li Auto is very confident that the L9 will be used by customers who will undertake the iteration of the Li Auto ONE in the future.</p><p>In response, Zhang Junyi stated that this is a normal product iteration. \"The current iteration rate of new energy vehicles may be between 4 and 5 years, which is faster than the iteration rate of traditional fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>According to Zhang Junyi, there are four main reasons for this phenomenon. First, product technologies themselves are iterating at an increasingly rapid pace, and vehicle models need to be adjusted to introduce and embody these technologies; Secondly, many consumers are currently used to replacing their cars every 4-5 years. Therefore, automakers need to keep up with this pace in order to accommodate the replacement of consumers with new products. Third, the early models of new car manufacturers are also a process of summarization and improvement, which will be faster than general iteration; Fourth, new R&D investment is more concentrated on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Electric vehicles will lead to a faster iteration of new energy vehicles than gasoline vehicles during the same period.</p><p>Chai Daixuan, director of CIC Consulting, expressed a different view on the current iteration rate of new energy vehicles. Chai Daixuan said, \"At present, the phase-out cycle of electric vehicles will not be shortened to less than five years.\"</p><p>Chai Daixuan further analyzed the reasons for this: First, for pure electric vehicles, the service life of power batteries is 5-8 years. Secondly, my country stipulates that key components of new energy vehicles (batteries, electronic controls, and motors) provide a warranty of no less than 8 years or 120,000 kilometers. During this period, repairs are completely free, which will indirectly reduce the frequency of consumers replacing their electric vehicles.</p><p>Unlike Li Auto, which is in the product iteration phase, Nio and XPeng \"stumbled\" in the process of controlling production costs.</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio' gross profit margin was 13%, down 30.1% from 18.6% in the same period last year and down 11% from 14.6% in the previous quarter. XPeng also faced a decline in gross profit margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. In the second quarter, XPeng' gross profit margin was 9.1%, compared to 11% in the same period last year, while the gross profit margin in the previous quarter was 10.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.6%.</p><p>XPeng and Nio gave similar reasons for the failure to control production costs: rising battery costs. Both XPeng and Nio have stated that the impact of rising battery costs will be offset by the launch of some high-priced cars.</p><p>Xiao Yu, a veteran in the automotive industry, said that because Li Auto initially chose range-extended ranges, it had an advantage in production costs compared to XPeng and Nio. This is why Li Auto's gross profit margin did not decline significantly as battery costs rose. \"XPeng and Nio, which insist on pure electric vehicles, must mitigate the impact of cost increases by raising car prices, thereby stabilizing gross profit margins. This is also one of the reasons why XPeng and Nio are accelerating their high-end development.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added, \"Controlling the cost of raw materials for complete vehicles is not a problem that can be solved by a few emerging players. Instead, the cost of the entire industry can only be systematically controlled when the deliveries and production volume of the emerging players have increased significantly.\"</p><p>Overseas business faces numerous obstacles</p><p>Wei Xiaoli, which is struggling to climb the ladder in China, is also looking to the international market.</p><p>In mid-June this year, after the Nio new product launch event, Li Bin told the outside world that he would resolutely go to Europe and the United States. \"China is the most 'volatile' place in the world. If you can survive in China, there is no reason why you can't survive in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>During its second-quarter earnings call, Nio also stated that the ET7 will begin deliveries to European countries and regions this year.</p><p>In fact, Nio had already established a research and development center in Silicon Valley as early as 2015. During the earnings call, Nio stated that the company had not been to the United States for some time due to the pandemic, so last month the company visited its R&D center in Silicon Valley to check on the progress of the work. Nio optimistically stated, \"The time is getting closer and closer for Nio to enter the US market.\"</p><p>In Europe, in May 2021, Nio released its Norway strategy, officially announcing its entry into the Norwegian market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Li Auto also stated that it is currently accelerating the improvement of its layout in overseas markets, including studying product usage habits in overseas markets and exploring and deploying channels, and has also established a team focused on this project. Earlier, in September 2020, the first batch<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It has also been sent to Norway.</p><p>\"The reason why both Nio and XPeng see Norway as a 'springboard' for attacking Europe is inseparable from Norway's friendly policies on new energy vehicles,\" Xiaoyu said. First of all, as a non-EU country, Norway has relatively lower requirements for car companies. In addition, the Norwegian government's strong support for the development of new energy vehicles in many aspects has also reduced the overall difficulty of automobile exports.</p><p>At the same time, Zhang Junyi stated that the further overseas expansion of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is an inevitable trend. \"The overseas expansion of 'Weixiaoli' is an inevitable trend in an environment where the quality of Chinese manufacturing is getting better and better. In the past, Chinese companies exported more to Asian, African and Latin American countries and regions. Now, with the improvement of China's productivity and product capabilities, exporting to the European and American markets is an inevitable path.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added that, in fact, the product strength of domestically produced new energy vehicles is competitive in the European market. \"Judging from the development of platforms, products and technologies, in recent years, domestic policies have strongly supported and promoted new energy vehicle companies very quickly. It can be said that some aspects have exceeded the capabilities of Europe, which is another reason why new players have been able to enter Europe.\"</p><p>\"On the other hand, the development of overseas business may also play a role in promoting the development of the domestic market,\" Zhang Junyi continued. Taking NIO as an example, Nio Auto directly benchmarks against high-end car brands such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW. To build such a brand, continuous internationalization is necessary. \"Even if new players are currently focusing on the domestic market, as their overseas business gradually matures, domestic consumers will perceive the brand's international influence, thereby promoting the growth of sales in the domestic market. Therefore, even if it doesn't make money, the overseas business still needs to 'gain publicity'.\"</p><p>However, emerging players going global also seem to have performed poorly in terms of sales figures.</p><p>According to Titanium Media, in the Norwegian market, the best-selling Chinese...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>The model is the Polestar 2, and its total sales from January to May were 1,984 units. In contrast, according to eu-evs data, XPeng and Nio delivered only 474 and 200 vehicles respectively in the European market in 2021.</p><p>\"This difference in magnitude is largely related to the fact that 'Wei Xiaoli', as a brand-new domestic brand, has not yet established its brand influence,\" Xiaoyu said. Polestar was originally a Swedish brand in Europe, but was later acquired by Volvo, and then Geely participated in the investment. Therefore, Polestar is not considered a \"homegrown\" Chinese brand. \"Wei Xiaoli\" is different. In overseas markets, their influence needs to be built up little by little from scratch, which takes time.</p><p>Regarding the future competitive landscape of \"Wei Xiaoli\" in overseas markets, Zhang Junyi said, \"In fact, some of the paths that 'Wei Xiaoli' has taken in the domestic market can be tried to see if they can be adapted to the European and American markets.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi cited NIO as an example, saying that Nio defines \"user experience\" as pre-sales, while most European and American markets usually define \"user experience\" more as after-sales service. This advanced user experience design has already gained some acceptance among domestic consumers, and this structural adjustment can also be applied to the European and American markets.</p><p>\"However, in terms of product design, 'Wei Xiaoli' needs to do more localized design, instead of directly taking cars mass-produced in China to undergo European standard approval and then directly launching them on the market,\" Zhang Junyi further said. In order to make good localized products, 'Wei Xiaoli' may need to establish a dedicated research department in overseas markets in the future to launch targeted products based on the different needs of different market segments and grasp the preferences of different consumers.</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\" Story 2.0</p><p>In addition to similarities in their overseas market layout, the new story of \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to have several other commonalities, namely the combination of high-end products and software and hardware.</p><p>Nio, which has always focused on high-end products, still insists on its strategy of high-priced cars. At the recently concluded Chengdu International Auto Show, Nio unveiled the ET5's interior for the first time, with a guide price of 328,000-386,000 yuan, while the ES7, which began deliveries in August, is priced starting at 468,000 yuan.</p><p>The XPeng G9 comes in four versions, priced at 296,800 yuan, 326,800 yuan, 376,800 yuan, and 436,800 yuan respectively. Its flagship Xopera music cockpit options are priced as high as 16,800 yuan. Li Auto is no exception; its L9, which was launched in June this year, has a guide price of 459,800 yuan.</p><p>It's easy to see that the first step in \"Wei Xiaoli\"'s high-end development starts with price.</p><p>Regarding the trend of NIO, Xiaoli, and others collectively \"sweeping\" into the high-end market, Zhang Junyi stated that this is partly to address the aforementioned decline in gross profit margin, and partly to reflect the upgrading of domestic manufacturing.</p><p>\"The government also hopes that automakers can produce products with stronger product capabilities and greater brand effect, rather than relying solely on subsidies from new energy policies to penetrate lower-tier cities,\" Zhang Junyi further stated. Moreover, vehicles are ultimately consumer goods, and any consumer brand of luxury goods always has a higher risk resistance capability. Therefore, automakers also hope to enhance their revenue resilience through continuous high-end development.</p><p>To successfully compete in the high-end market, \"user experience\" is the essential brand value. Clearly, \"Wei Xiaoli\" is well aware of this importance and has been improving the intelligentization of its products and the technology of combining software and hardware.</p><p>For example, the story about the intelligent cockpit told by the Nio ES7. As the first SUV released on the Nio NT2 platform, the ES7 is equipped with PanoCinema, a panoramic digital cockpit that uses AR/VR technology. Just two days before releasing its second-quarter financial report, NIO also released the NIO Air AR Glasses, a native automotive AR Glasses developed in collaboration with AR equipment company nreal. The first batch consisted of 800 pairs, with a pre-sale price of 2,299 yuan.</p><p>Similar to Nio, Li Auto has also begun its development of AR glasses. September 2nd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The affiliated company, Beijing Chehejia Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., has been granted two design patents for \"VR glasses\" and \"rings\".</p><p>\"This is a win-win cooperation.\" Regarding the phenomenon of \"emerging car manufacturers\" \"focusing\" on wearable devices, Zhang Junyi said that for automakers, on the one hand, even if the interior space is larger than before and there is a display screen, the rear passengers may not be able to see the screen due to the limitations of the interior structure. VR glasses can further overcome the limitations of the interior space, which is an improvement in the vehicle experience itself. On the other hand, VR devices, including Nio automakers' layout of mobile phones, are all aimed at further extending the human-computer interaction experience beyond the in-vehicle infotainment system.</p><p>On the other hand, XPeng, which has always focused on intelligentization, has made a focus on assisted driving and auditory experience. At the Chengdu International Auto Show, XPeng stated that the G9 boasts industry-first full-scenario intelligent driver assistance, starting from a parking space, traveling through parking lots, low-speed parks, urban roads, urban expressways, highways, etc., until it reaches and moors into the final parking space, providing intelligent driver assistance throughout the entire process.</p><p>In addition, the Xopera XPeng Concert Hall, released at the same time as the G9, is a new attempt by XPeng to combine automotive hardware and software. Official data shows that it can control interior noise within 35 decibels (when the vehicle is stationary).</p><p>Regarding why XPeng chose music as one of the highlights of its software and hardware integration, a supplier with deep cooperation with XPeng told Ranciyuan Analysis, \"The XPeng G9 has more space than previously released SUVs, and the combination of music and large space can maximize the added value of the interior space.\"</p><p>Xiaoyu stated that in addition to increasing the added value of the high-end route, the integration of software and hardware is also an advantage for emerging automakers compared to traditional automakers in their transformation. The interaction between hardware and software is not only a technological breakthrough, but also requires the full cooperation of various departments in terms of organization. However, the effective R&D and management processes of mainstream traditional automakers over the past few decades have become increasingly prominent in the face of electrification transformation, such as complex organizational structures, lengthy processes, and poor internal information communication. The established internal interest groups have great resistance and resistance to change, which has led to them being relatively conservative and passive in the development and layout of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, \"emerging car manufacturers\" have inherent internet attributes and flat management in their organizational structures. Their founders are essentially product managers of the emerging companies they belong to. Compared with traditional automakers, the cross-departmental communication and collaboration costs of emerging automakers, supported by the advantage of reduced technology development difficulty, have greatly improved product development efficiency.</p><p>At present, although the three members of the first tier of \"new car manufacturers\" are working hard to tell new stories, it may not be easy for \"Wei Xiaoli\" to tell new stories well under the multiple competitive pressures of the second tier catching up and the active transformation of traditional car companies.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1704103183_65928d0f02002yiou.html\">燃次元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b6fbfe38edb1202883a645549da7f6","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility 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燃次元制图值得注意的是，8月新势力车企交付量前三的分别是传统车企转型的比亚迪和广汽，和来自“造车新势力”第二梯队的哪吒汽车。之后，与华为合作的赛力斯推出的问界系列在销量上也实现了突破，以10045辆的交付，超过了小鹏与理想，且与蔚来几乎持平。不少业内人士将“蔚小理”8月交付数据的现状归因于“‘蔚小理’效应消失”的结果。而奥纬咨询董事合伙人、前蔚来资本管理合伙人张君毅则表示，仅仅因此来判断“蔚小理”效应消失，为时尚早。“蔚小理”8月表现不佳，是周期性和偶发性因素结合导致的结果。张君毅进一步分析道，周期性因素来说，新势力本身就有发展的平台期和产品切换挑战期，加之暑期本不是车企的销售旺季。因此，部分车企也会选择在这个时候休整工厂或者是上线迭代的产品。偶发性因素来说，部分地区疫情复发和供电不足等因素，均会影响车企的交付和生产速度。“尤其是对于‘造车新势力’这样网点少、生产规模比较集中的企业，影响就会更大。”张君毅直言。一边是销量的不尽如人意，另一边“蔚小理”的盈利能力也尚未有突破。据“蔚小理”第二季度财报，本季度三家车企的净亏损分别是27.45亿元、27亿元和6.18亿元，相较于去年同期的亏损扩幅分别为316％、126.1％和163％。虽然同样处于亏损扩大的状态，但“蔚小理”三家“越卖越亏”的理由却不尽相同。其中，理想营收增长的速度赶不上运营费用的增速。财报显示，第二季度理想实现了87.3亿元的总营收，较去年同期同比增幅为73.3％，较第一季度则有8.7％的环比降幅。但相较之下，第二季度，理想的运营费用为28.6亿元，较去年同期同比增幅大超90％，较第一季度环比增加10.9％。值得注意的是，理想第二季度的销售费用为13.3亿元，较去年同比增幅58.6％。理想将销售费用的增长归因于，“扩大销售网络中所涉及的人员扩招费用以及房租费用的上升。”从理想的门店数据来看，理想确实进行了大幅度的扩张——去年第二季度，理想在全国69座城市有114个实体店，而到了今年第二季度，理想已经在全国118座城市拥有了265个实体店，实体店的数量同比增幅达132％。不过，这样的渠道扩张似乎并没有给理想带来喜人的销量增长，尤其是在“理想ONE”宣布停产且L9未能大批量交付的特殊时期。但就理想自身而言，其对用于迭代的新品L9未来的表现，则充满信心。第二季度财报会议上，理想表示，原本很多理想ONE的意向客户在看到L9之后都转而成为了L9的客户，即使这两款车的售价有较大的差距。基于此，理想对于L9未来承接理想ONE迭代的客户也很有信心。对此，张君毅表示，这是一种正常的产品迭代，“新能源车型目前的迭代速度可能在4-5年之间，比传统燃油车的迭代速度更快一些。”在张君毅看来，之所以出现该现象，主要原因可从四个方面来看。第一，产品技术本身的迭代越来越快，要导入且体现这些技术需要调整车型；第二，很多消费者目前的习惯就是4-5年换车，因此车企为了能够用新品来承接换代的消费者也要跟上这样的节奏；第三，新造车企业的早期车型也是总结提升的过程，会比一般迭代要快；第四，新的研发投资更集中于智能电动车，会导致同期新能源汽车的迭代快于燃油车。而CIC灼识咨询总监柴代旋则对目前新能源车辆的迭代速度表达了不同看法，柴代旋表示，“目前来看，电车的淘汰周期并不会缩短至五年以内。”究其原因，柴代旋进一步分析道，首先，对于纯电动汽车来说，动力电池的使用年限为5-8年。其次，我国规定新能源车关键部件（电池、电控、电机）提供不少于8年或12万公里质保，在这个周期内，维修都是完全免费的，这也会侧面会减少消费者更换电车的频率。与理想处于产品的迭代期不同，蔚来和小鹏则“栽倒”在对生产成本把控的环节。第二季度，蔚来毛利率为13％，较去年同期18.6％的毛利率下降30.1％，较上个季度14.6％的毛利率，环比下降11％。小鹏也同样面临毛利率同比、环比双下降的情况，第二季度小鹏的毛利率为9.1％，去年同期毛利率为11％，而上季度的毛利率则为10.4％，同比降幅17.3％，环比降幅12.6％。对于生产成本控制的失利，小鹏和蔚来给出了相近的理由，即电池成本上升。而小鹏和蔚来也不约而同地说明了，电池成本上升的影响会被部分高价车的推出所消解。汽车行业资深从业者小宇表示，由于最开始选择增程式，理想在生产成本上相较小鹏和蔚来更有优势，这也是为什么理想的毛利率没有随着电池成本上升而出现明显的下滑，“坚持纯电的小鹏和蔚来则必须通过提高汽车的售价来消解成本提升带来的影响，从而稳住毛利率。这也是小鹏和蔚来加速高端化布局的原因之一。”张君毅则补充道，“整车原材料成本的控制不是几个新势力就能解决的问题，而是需要等到整个新势力行业的交付和生产量有较大提升的时候，整体行业的成本才能被系统性地控制。”出海业务，阻力重重在国内爬坡吃力的“蔚小理”，也看向了国际市场。今年6月中旬，蔚来汽车新品发布会后，李斌向外界表示，会坚决去欧洲、坚决去美国，“中国就是全球最‘卷’的地方，在中国能生存，在欧洲和美国没有理由生存不下去。”在第二季度的财报会议上，蔚来也表示ET7会在今年与瑞典、德国、挪威等欧洲国家和地区开启交付。事实上，早在2015年，蔚来就已经在硅谷设立了研发中心。此次财报会议上，蔚来表示因疫情原因公司已经有一段时间没有去美国，因此上个月公司访问了美国硅谷的研发中心查看工作进度。蔚来方面乐观提到，“距离蔚来进入美国市场的时间已经越来越近。”欧洲方面，2021年5月，蔚来发布挪威战略，正式宣布进入挪威市场。无独有偶，同月，理想也表示，目前正在加速完善对于海外市场的布局，包括研究海外市场的产品使用习惯以及渠道探索和铺设，并且也已经成立了专注于这一项目的团队。更早之前的2020年9月，第一批小鹏汽车也已经发往挪威。“蔚来和小鹏之所以都将挪威当成进攻欧洲的‘跳台’，与挪威新能源汽车的友好政策脱不开关系。”小宇表示，首先，挪威作为非欧盟国家，对于汽车企业的各项要求相对没有那么高。另外，挪威政府在多方面大力支持新能源汽车的发展，也降低了汽车出口的整体难度。与此同时，张君毅表示，“蔚小理”的进一步出海也是大势所趋。“‘蔚小理’出海是中国制造质量越来越好环境下的必然趋势。以往中国企业出口的地区更多集中于亚非拉国家和地区，现在随着中国生产力和产品力的提升，出口到欧洲和美国市场是必经之路。”张君毅补充道，实际上，国产新能源车的产品力在欧洲市场是有竞争力的，“从平台、产品和技术的发展情况来看，近年来，国内政策对新能源车企的大力扶持和推动速度非常快，可以说一些方面已经超过了欧洲的能力，这也是新势力能够进入欧洲的另一个原因。”“另一方面，出海业务的发展也可能起到促进国内市场发展的作用。”张君毅继续说道，以蔚来为例，蔚来汽车直接对标的是奥迪、奔驰、宝马等高端汽车品牌，想要打造这样一个品牌，持续的国际化是必要的，“即使新势力目前主攻的市场是国内，当出海业务逐渐成熟的时候，国内消费者也会感知到品牌的国际影响力，从而促使国内市场销量的增长。因此，即使不赚钱，出海业务也要‘赚吆喝’。”不过，出海的新势力在销量数据上似乎也表现得一般。据钛媒体报道，在挪威市场，卖得最好的中国新能源车型是极星2，其1-5月的总销量为1984辆。相较之下，根据eu-evs数据显示，2021年小鹏和蔚来在欧洲市场的交付量分别只有474辆和200辆。“这样量级的差异和‘蔚小理’作为全新国产品牌尚未建立品牌影响度有极大关系。”小宇表示，极星原本就是欧洲瑞典的品牌，后来被沃尔沃收购，再后来又有吉利参与投资。因此极星不算是个“土生土长”的中国品牌。“蔚小理”就不一样，在海外市场他们的影响力需要一点点从零开始铺设，这是需要时间的。对于“蔚小理”未来在海外市场的竞争格局，张君毅则表示，“其实‘蔚小理’在国内市场走通的路有一些可以尝试是否能适配到欧美市场。”张君毅举例表示，以蔚来为例，蔚来所定义的“用户体验”指的是售前，而通常大部分欧美市场对“用户体验”的定义则更多侧重于售后。这样较为超前的用户体验设计已经在国内消费者获得了部分的认可，而这种结构性调整也可以用于欧美市场中。“但在产品设计上，‘蔚小理’则需要做更多的本土化设计，而不是将中国量产的车直接拿去过审欧标，然后直接上市。”张君毅进一步表示，想要做好本土化的产品，也许未来‘蔚小理’需要在海外市场设立专门的调研部门，根据细分市场的不同需求，推出针对性的产品，抓住不同消费者的喜好。“蔚小理”故事2.0“蔚小理”的新故事，除了对海外市场的布局有着相似之处，其似乎还有其它几个共同点，即高端与软硬件结合。本就主打高端化的蔚来仍坚持其高价车的策略。在刚刚结束的成都国际车展上，蔚来首次公开内饰的ET5指导价在32.8-38.6万元，而8月开始交付的ES7，售价更是定到了46.8万元起步。小鹏G9分为四个版本，售价分别是29.68万元、32.68万元、37.68万元以及43.68万元。而其主打的Xopera音乐座舱选配价则高达1.68万元。理想也不例外，其于今年6月上市的L9指导价为45.98万元。不难看出，“蔚小理”高端化的第一步，是从价格开始。对于蔚小理集体“卷”向高端化市场的趋势，张君毅表示，一方面是为了解决上述提到的毛利率下滑的情况，另一方面，也是为了体现国产制造的升级。“国家也希望车企能够生产出产品力更强、品牌效应更大的产品，而不是一味地依靠新能源政策的补贴走下沉路线。”张君毅进一步表示，况且，车辆归根结底还是消费品，任何消费品牌奢侈品的抗风险能力总是更高的。因此，车企也希望通过持续高端化的布局提升自己营收的抗压能力。要想“卷”好高端，“用户体验”才是必须做好的品牌价值。显然，“蔚小理”也深知这一重要性，并纷纷提高产品的智能化和软硬件结合的技术。比如，蔚来ES7讲出的关于智能座舱的故事。作为蔚来NT2平台发布的第一台SUV，ES7搭载应用AR/VR技术的全景数字座舱PanoCinema。就在发布第二季度财报的前两日，蔚来也发布了与AR设备企业nreal携手开发的原生车载AR眼镜NIO Air AR Glasses，首批数量800副，预售价为2299元。与蔚来相似，理想也开始了AR眼镜的布局。9月2日，理想汽车关联公司北京车和家汽车科技有限公司申请的“VR眼镜”“指环”两项外观专利获得授权。“这是一项双赢的合作。”对于“造车新势力”向可穿戴设备“发力”的现象，张君毅表示，对车企来说，一方面，即使车内空间比以往更大，也有显示屏，但受限于车内构造后排乘客也有可能看不到屏幕，而VR眼镜可以进一步跨越车内空间的局限性，这是对车辆体验感本身的提升。另一方面，VR设备，包括蔚来车企对手机的布局都是为了进一步将人机交互的体验延伸到车机之外。另一边，始终主打智能化的小鹏则在辅助驾驶和听觉体验上做起了“文章”。成都国际车展上，小鹏方面表示，G9拥有行业首创的全场景智能辅助驾驶，从一个停车位启动，途经停车场、低速园区、城市道路、城市快速路、高速路等，直到抵达并泊入终点停车位，全程进行智能辅助驾驶。除此之外，与G9同时发布的Xopera小鹏音乐厅是小鹏在汽车硬件与软件结合下作出的新尝试，官方资料显示，其可以将车内噪声控制在35分贝内（车辆静止状态下）。对于小鹏为何选择音乐作为其软硬件结合的亮点之一，一位与小鹏有深度合作的供应商对燃次元分析表示，“小鹏G9较之前发布的SUV有更大的空间，而音乐与大空间的结合，能够最大限度地体现车内空间的附加价值。”小宇则表示，除了增加高端路线的附加价值，软硬件结合也是新势力相较于传统车企转型更有优势的地方。软硬件的交互不只是技术层面的突破，在组织上也需要各个部门的倾力配合。但主流传统车企在过去几十年里行之有效的研发与管理流程在面对电动化转型时，其组织架构复杂、流程冗长、内部信息沟通不畅等问题日益突出，已形成的内部利益集团对变革的抗拒与阻力较大，这就导致其在新能源车型的开发与布局方面较为保守，进而被动。相较之下，“造车新势力”在组织结构上自带互联网属性和扁平化管理，他们的创始人，本质上都是所属新势力的产品经理。与传统车企相比，新势力的跨部门沟通与协作成本在技术开发难度降低的优势加持下，极大提升了产品的开发效率。现阶段，尽管“造车新势力”第一梯队的三家成员在努力讲述新故事，但在第二梯队的追赶以及传统车企积极转型的多重竞争压力下，“蔚小理”想要讲好新故事，或并不容易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.6,"02015":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.6,"XPEV":0.9,"09866":0.6,"LI":0.6,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357618954317992,"gmtCreate":1728318929319,"gmtModify":1728318931187,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484871130175544","authorIdStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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Mark","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a0afb82c55be81a47100b877af9dd82","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188217609916520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":687888897,"gmtCreate":1660874296024,"gmtModify":1676536752536,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484871130175544","authorIdStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"(•̀⌄•́)","listText":"(•̀⌄•́)","text":"(•̀⌄•́)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687888897","repostId":"1148070609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148070609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1660831194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148070609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-18 21:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the US stock market rebound: Quantitative funds close short positions, are they poised for another 100 days of gains?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148070609","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly,\" seizing the opportunity in a \"very bearish market\" with lightning speed. After experiencing its worst first half of the year on record, US stocks began a rebound in the second half of the year. Since July, the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 17%, and the S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 13%.</p><p>The rebound in US stocks highlights the gradual dissipation of investor pessimism. Quantitative funds that had previously shorted US stocks on a large scale quickly closed their short positions and then switched to long positions.</p><p>In response, Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott stated,<b>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly,\" seizing the opportunity in a \"very bearish market\" with lightning speed.</b></p><p><b>Quantitative funds quickly turned to</b></p><p>Nomura estimates that since the market hit a low in late June, trend-tracking hedge funds and volatility control funds have purchased $107 billion in global stock futures, a large portion of which is used to close short positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Glenn Koh, head of equity trading, said: \"Because positions are basically low and a lot of cash (holders) are waiting outside the market, more and more funds are flowing back into the market as the market stabilizes and begins to rebound.\"</p><p>According to a previous article by Wall Street Insights, in July, quantitative trading strategy CTA lifted approximately $100 billion in bets on bearish stocks and bonds, driving the recovery of U.S. stocks and Treasuries from the worst first half of the year in history.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to estimates, commodity traders (CTAs) engaged in both long and short trading in the futures market have liquidated the short positions they had built up over the past few months, and by the end of July, their overall exposure was at a neutral level for the first time since March.</p><p>However, with the risk of recession intensifying, how long can this bullish stance last?</p><p><b>100 days?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts say long positions may continue. The agency told its hedge fund clients last week that funds seeking low volatility and risk-parity funds buy approximately $2 billion to $4 billion worth of stocks every day. The bank estimates that if volatility remains low, such long positions...<b>It may last another 100 days.</b>”。</p><p>JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said the rally has reached most corners of the market. Over the past 50 days,<b>Approximately 88% of the S&P 500 constituent stocks traded above average, a significantly higher percentage than the 2% in mid-June.</b>。 Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"The strong participation indicates that this rebound is sustained and another manifestation of the receding tail risks in the market.\" \"Funds that pursue low volatility will increase their overall risk exposure, especially in stocks.\" Fund managers are more optimistic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategist Michael Hartnett said after conducting a poll of portfolio managers this month that they are \"no longer as pessimistic as the end of the world.\"</p><p><b>How long can US stocks support the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike?</b></p><p>This depends to some extent on the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate hike. Federal Reserve officials have warned that they will continue rate hike and may keep interest rates above traders' expectations. In addition, rising inflation and economic recession may continue to impact the market.</p><p>This also explains why the recent rise in US stocks was not led by traditional fund managers and long/short stock hedge funds, but by quantitative funds.</p><p>\"You'll see some people shorting,\" said Mike Lewis, head of U.S. cash equity trading at Barclays.</p><p>Bridgewater Associates believes that the US stock market is currently in a prolonged and widespread stagflation environment, and it is clearly not yet prepared for a low-growth environment. The agency believes that to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve's target level, its monetary policy must be strong enough to push the U.S. economy into recession. The significance of this for the market is self-evident.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the strong performance of many US-listed companies is precisely due to the high returns brought about by high inflation, and as inflation declines, the profits of many companies will also decline, and their performance will fall short of market expectations. The bank's Mike Wilson team stated:</p><p>“<b>The next round of US stock market declines may not be until September.</b>At that time, our negative operating leverage theory will be reflected more in our earnings forecasts. However, due to overvaluations in US stocks, we believe the best part of the rally is over.</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the US stock market rebound: Quantitative funds close short positions, are they poised for another 100 days of gains?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the US stock market rebound: Quantitative funds close short positions, are they poised for another 100 days of gains?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-18 21:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly,\" seizing the opportunity in a \"very bearish market\" with lightning speed. After experiencing its worst first half of the year on record, US stocks began a rebound in the second half of the year. Since July, the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 17%, and the S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 13%.</p><p>The rebound in US stocks highlights the gradual dissipation of investor pessimism. Quantitative funds that had previously shorted US stocks on a large scale quickly closed their short positions and then switched to long positions.</p><p>In response, Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott stated,<b>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly,\" seizing the opportunity in a \"very bearish market\" with lightning speed.</b></p><p><b>Quantitative funds quickly turned to</b></p><p>Nomura estimates that since the market hit a low in late June, trend-tracking hedge funds and volatility control funds have purchased $107 billion in global stock futures, a large portion of which is used to close short positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Glenn Koh, head of equity trading, said: \"Because positions are basically low and a lot of cash (holders) are waiting outside the market, more and more funds are flowing back into the market as the market stabilizes and begins to rebound.\"</p><p>According to a previous article by Wall Street Insights, in July, quantitative trading strategy CTA lifted approximately $100 billion in bets on bearish stocks and bonds, driving the recovery of U.S. stocks and Treasuries from the worst first half of the year in history.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to estimates, commodity traders (CTAs) engaged in both long and short trading in the futures market have liquidated the short positions they had built up over the past few months, and by the end of July, their overall exposure was at a neutral level for the first time since March.</p><p>However, with the risk of recession intensifying, how long can this bullish stance last?</p><p><b>100 days?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts say long positions may continue. The agency told its hedge fund clients last week that funds seeking low volatility and risk-parity funds buy approximately $2 billion to $4 billion worth of stocks every day. The bank estimates that if volatility remains low, such long positions...<b>It may last another 100 days.</b>”。</p><p>JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said the rally has reached most corners of the market. Over the past 50 days,<b>Approximately 88% of the S&P 500 constituent stocks traded above average, a significantly higher percentage than the 2% in mid-June.</b>。 Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"The strong participation indicates that this rebound is sustained and another manifestation of the receding tail risks in the market.\" \"Funds that pursue low volatility will increase their overall risk exposure, especially in stocks.\" Fund managers are more optimistic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategist Michael Hartnett said after conducting a poll of portfolio managers this month that they are \"no longer as pessimistic as the end of the world.\"</p><p><b>How long can US stocks support the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike?</b></p><p>This depends to some extent on the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate hike. Federal Reserve officials have warned that they will continue rate hike and may keep interest rates above traders' expectations. In addition, rising inflation and economic recession may continue to impact the market.</p><p>This also explains why the recent rise in US stocks was not led by traditional fund managers and long/short stock hedge funds, but by quantitative funds.</p><p>\"You'll see some people shorting,\" said Mike Lewis, head of U.S. cash equity trading at Barclays.</p><p>Bridgewater Associates believes that the US stock market is currently in a prolonged and widespread stagflation environment, and it is clearly not yet prepared for a low-growth environment. The agency believes that to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve's target level, its monetary policy must be strong enough to push the U.S. economy into recession. The significance of this for the market is self-evident.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the strong performance of many US-listed companies is precisely due to the high returns brought about by high inflation, and as inflation declines, the profits of many companies will also decline, and their performance will fall short of market expectations. The bank's Mike Wilson team stated:</p><p>“<b>The next round of US stock market declines may not be until September.</b>At that time, our negative operating leverage theory will be reflected more in our earnings forecasts. However, due to overvaluations in US stocks, we believe the best part of the rally is over.</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148070609","content_text":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。在经历有史以来最糟糕的上半年之后，美股在下半年开启了反弹模式。自7月以来，纳斯达克综指上涨了近17%，标普500指数上涨了近13%。美股反弹的背后，凸显了投资者悲观情绪的逐渐消散，此前大规模做空美股的量化基金迅速关闭空仓，然后转为做多。对此，野村的策略师Charlie McElligott表示，量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。量化基金迅速转向野村估计，自6月底市场触及低点以来，趋势跟踪对冲基金和波动控制基金已经购买了1070亿美元的全球股票期货，其中很大一部分用于平仓空头头寸。美国银行股票交易主管Glenn Koh表示：“由于仓位基本处于低位，大量现金（持有者）在场外观望，因此随着市场企稳并开始反弹，越来越多的资金流回了市场。”据华尔街见闻此前文章介绍，7月份，量化交易策略CTA解除了约1000亿美元看跌股票和债券的押注，推动美股和美债从史上最糟糕的上半年中开始复苏。根据摩根大通的估计，在期货市场进行多空双向交易的商品交易商（CTA）纷纷平掉了他们在过去几个月里建立的空头仓位，到7月底，他们的整体敞口自3月份以来首次处于中性水平。然而，随着衰退风险加剧，这种做多还能维持多久？100天？摩根大通分析师表示，做多可能会继续。该机构上周告诉其对冲基金客户，追求低波动的基金和风险平价基金每天购买价值约20亿至40亿美元的股票。该行估计，如果波动性保持在低水平，此类做多 “可能会再持续100天”。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，涨势已经触及市场的大部分角落。过去50天，标普500指数成分股中约有88%的交易价格高于平均水平，该比例远远高于6月中旬的2%。Kolanovic说：“强劲的参与度表明这次反弹是持久的，也是市场尾部风险消退的另一个表现。”“追求低波动的基金将增加整体风险敞口，尤其是股票。”基金经理则更加乐观。美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett本月对投资组合经理进行民意调查后表示，他们“不再像世界末日一样悲观”。美联储激进加息下，美股能支持多久？这在一定程度上取决于美联储接下来的加息幅度。美联储官员曾警告称，将会继续加息并可能将利率维持在交易员预期的上方。另外，通胀加剧和经济衰退也可能继续冲击市场。这也解释了为什么此次美股上涨不是由传统的基金经理和多空股票对冲基金引领，而是由量化基金驱动。巴克莱美国现金股票交易主管Mike Lewis表示：“你会看到一些人做空。”桥水基金认为，当前美股处在一个长期、广泛的滞胀环境中，美股显然还没为一个低增长的环境做好准备。该机构认为，要将通胀降至美联储的目标水平，其货币政策的力度必须大到将美国经济推入衰退。这对市场的意义不言而喻。摩根士丹利则认为，很多美股上市公司表现好恰恰是由于高通胀带来的高收益，而随着通胀下行，很多公司的利润也将下行，其表现将逊于市场预期。该行的Mike Wilson团队表示：“下一轮美股下跌可能要等到9月，届时我们的负经营杠杆理论将更多地反映在盈利预测中。然而，由于美股估值过高，我们认为涨势最好的部分已经结束。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":687128283,"gmtCreate":1660816086945,"gmtModify":1676536750387,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484871130175544","authorIdStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"（ '▿ ' ）","listText":"（ '▿ ' ）","text":"（ '▿ ' 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International Group宜家家居於1943年創建，宜家集團是瑞典傢俱賣場。 IKEA發展穩健而迅速，在60年的時間裏，發展到在全球共有240家連鎖商店，分佈在43個國家，僱傭員工7萬多名。2003財年度IKEA獲取了110億歐元的銷售收入和超過11億歐元的淨利潤，成爲全球最大的家居用品零售商。大部分的門市位於歐洲，其他的則位於美國、加拿大、亞洲和澳洲。每年印刷量高達一億本的IKEA商品目錄中，收錄有大約12000件的商品，號稱是除了聖經之外最被廣爲散佈的書籍。1998年，宜家進入中國市場。首店落子上海徐家彙。彼時，國內同行還以“大棚式”的市場業態爲主，買傢俱到菱方圓、十六鋪，買燈具到柳林路，買建材到宜山路……兜兜轉轉花上幾個雙休日。而有了宜家，傢俱家居不僅一站式購齊，購物","listText":"在中國家居市場上，宜家一直都是大家關注的焦點。作爲來自北歐的著名家居企業，宜家曾經一度是中國的網紅店，很多宜家都是門庭若市，甚至需要排隊，然而就在最近宜家卻出現了比較罕見的連續關店現象。2022年4月1日，貴陽唯一的宜家門店關閉。宜家貴陽店從2019年10月營業，截止到今年4月1日營業時間不超過3年。2022年6月13日，宜家中國諮詢中心在其微信公衆號上發佈：“宜家中國對楊浦商場的長期可行性進行了綜合分析，並考慮從7月初開始，不再保留其作爲上海顧客觸點矩陣的一部分”。宜家上海楊浦商場在2020年3月開店，是宜家在中國的首家小型商場。當時爲了更好融入當地，宜家楊浦店特意增加了很多親子元素，而且，它是作爲宜家探索新商場模式的首個項目，但開業僅2年就關閉了。關於宜家門店關閉的原因，宜家官方解釋是“面對日趨複雜的零售市場，以及數字化和疫情等因素帶來的消費者行爲轉變，宜家中國不斷審視、評估和顧客需求，在必要時轉型、關閉或新增業務單元和渠道，並探索各類創新的顧客觸點模式。”公開資料顯示，宜家集團IKEA International Group宜家家居於1943年創建，宜家集團是瑞典傢俱賣場。 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