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王智鹏
2025-07-16
$GD Culture Group Limited(GDC)$
王智鹏
2021-06-29
T
Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.
王智鹏
2021-06-29
T
Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.
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Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Double in ten years? 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Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159869116,"gmtCreate":1624956188135,"gmtModify":1703848778331,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496835855734052","authorIdStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159869116","repostId":"1194390769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194390769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612572263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194390769?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDouble in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":457278839898440,"gmtCreate":1752677026362,"gmtModify":1752678412390,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496835855734052","idStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDC\">$GD Culture Group Limited(GDC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDC\">$GD Culture Group Limited(GDC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","text":"$GD Culture Group Limited(GDC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/457278839898440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159869832,"gmtCreate":1624956188626,"gmtModify":1703848778170,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496835855734052","idStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159869832","repostId":"1194390769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194390769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612572263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194390769?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDouble in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159869116,"gmtCreate":1624956188135,"gmtModify":1703848778331,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3496835855734052","idStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159869116","repostId":"1194390769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194390769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612572263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194390769?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Double in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDouble in ten years? Morgan Stanley says Chinese consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.<b>Following the pandemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the wealth gap, and globally leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will drive tremendous changes in Chinese residents' consumption over the next decade.</b>There are not only encouraging prospects of surpassing the current scale of consumption in the United States, but also noteworthy structural challenges and industry shifts.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market for realizing the dual circulation strategy. Faced with multiple challenges such as internal aging and external anti-globalization, how can China unleash its consumption potential, how will its demand structure change, and how will its industry ecosystem transform?</p><p>Morgan Stanley consumer analyst Lou Chao and Chief China Economist Xing Ziqiang, along with 18 researchers, released their latest in-depth report, \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook,\"<b>Private consumption in China is expected to more than double to $13 trillion by 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total volume lies a dramatic structural change. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace the younger generation as the main drivers of consumption growth, and service consumption will become institutionalized and professional, with its proportion increasing significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Key findings of the China 2030 Consumer Market Report, Source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>Over the next decade, the main drivers of China's consumption growth and structural changes will come from income, reforms, and demographic structure.</p><p>First, income growth is the ballast of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial self-reliance, and RMB internationalization, China is expected to withstand anti-globalization in the post-pandemic world, maintain productivity growth, overcome the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the high-income economy standard defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is inseparable from changes in China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis inflection point and its economy gradually shifts towards the service sector, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. Wage income as a percentage of GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and is expected to continue rising over the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that per capita annual disposable income in China is expected to rise from $6,000 now to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade. Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research forecast)</p><p>Secondly, let's look at reform. Currently, China still faces some bottlenecks that suppress consumption potential and need to be improved: the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population is 61%, while the urbanization rate of the registered resident population is less than 50%, which means that the rural population still accounts for a high proportion and the penetration rate of the service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is insufficiently linked to household registration and has insufficient coverage, resulting in high levels of preventive savings among residents, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan reached the turning point of its demographic dividend in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, while its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to unleash China's consumption potential, a two-pronged approach is needed on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, we will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), create Urbanization 2.0, leverage the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises centered on the five major metropolitan areas, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime, anywhere, and provide fertile ground for economies of scale for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic has put international travel on hold. Coupled with the long-term trend of anti-globalization, the government is trying to remove bottlenecks in consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing a duty-free island in Hainan and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax on some products in the future and increase the openness of service industries such as finance, healthcare, and entertainment.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese residents will see about $100 billion in overseas spending return annually from 2021 to 2023, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, policymakers will continue to promote household registration reform and expand social security coverage to reduce residents' precautionary savings. Furthermore, low-income groups have a higher marginal propensity to consume compared to high-income groups. Given the significant reduction in personal income tax on wages over the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thereby expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographic structure is crucial. The aging population has increased the proportion of consumers in the economy, causing China's overall savings rate to enter a downward trend while the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this may seem like an old-fashioned theory, the dramatic changes in the population structure behind it exceed most people's understanding.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s assessment is that although companies and the market are currently paying close attention to the consumption hotspots and emerging trends of the younger generation, by 2030, the demand of families aged 35-44 and the demand of middle-aged and elderly people aged 55 and above will become the main force of Chinese consumption. Conversely, the proportion of young people under 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two waves of baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total population of approximately 140 million. They have experienced reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, enjoyed the benefits brought about by China's economic growth, and accumulated residents' wealth. Over the next decade, this generation will gradually enter retirement age (over 55 years old) and drive the development of the leisure, medical, and elderly care industries. The second wave of baby boomers totals approximately 120 million people, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the 35-45 age group in the next ten years. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, their proportion of total social wealth will rise from the current 18% to 23%. Expenditures on related service industries, such as starting families, raising children, and caring for the elderly, will increase significantly.</p><p>Conversely, over the next decade, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, and youth entertainment will gradually decline.</p><p>Driven by the three factors mentioned above, Morgan Stanley predicts that private consumption in China will more than double by 2030 to $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in its first China Economic Blue Book four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States. Meanwhile, the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for services such as medical care, entertainment, and nursing. Secondly, more than 55% of those currently in their prime working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with elderly parents to support and young children to support. Services such as elderly care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled up, and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also help further penetrate service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from current brands and channels to technology and services. Based on the adaptability and sensitivity of various industries to the aforementioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumer sector into four major tracks: takeoff, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, elderly care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping, and domestic services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>This refers to the need for traditional industries to adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and transformations in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine brightly by 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medicine, and new consumption patterns and concepts within the framework of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>These industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological advancements, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional automobiles, and traditional home furnishings, which will experience a significant slowdown.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley identified relevant industries and launched an outlook for opportunities over the next decade, including solid growth in professional institutional services (education, comprehensive platforms, healthcare, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart living (electronic property management, smart homes and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with significantly upgraded experiences (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robotics). Conversely, offline channels and traditional goods (such as gasoline-powered vehicles and traditional home appliances) will face challenges, including some industries that are still experiencing relatively strong growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages and basic necessities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four business types and their prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
