浴缸潜水员 personal page - To The Moon

浴缸潜水员

浴缸潜水员

少有斗智

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浴缸潜水员

2021-08-27

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Daiwa: Xiaomi rises to outperform rating with target price of HK $28

浴缸潜水员

2021-08-19

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浴缸潜水员

2021-07-26

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浴缸潜水员

2021-06-19

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@何安迪:一夜之間從65美元到清零，幣圈最大的噩夢終於出現了

浴缸潜水员

2021-03-16

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浴缸潜水员

2021-03-07

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Apocalypse of the Big Fall

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2021-03-07

o(∩_∩)o

@格隆汇:SPAC?不就是穿上馬甲的次貸麼

浴缸潜水员

2021-03-07

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@生财小王子:搞投資，聽說你還不懂PE、ROE及ROA的意義？一文講明白

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2021-02-22

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-21

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-20

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Deep thinking: What is the value logic of Bitcoin?

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2021-02-13

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-12

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Is the "Nayuki's Tea" prospectus as sweet as tea?

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2021-02-11

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浴缸潜水员

2021-02-05

250?

Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks set off a "short squeeze storm", Liulishuo soared 250%

浴缸潜水员

2021-02-02

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@Brain樣:你可能不知道的大衆汽車軋空慘案

浴缸潜水员

2021-02-01

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@青年财经资讯:中信香港銀行卡使用指南

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2021-01-15

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"New Debt King" Gundlach looks forward to 2021: a year of great changes

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2021-01-14

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@互联网怪盗团:每個人都有必要認真學習“財務報表分析”這門基本功

浴缸潜水员

2021-01-12

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13:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Daiwa: Xiaomi rises to outperform rating with target price of HK $28","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162010633","media":"新浪港股","summary":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","content":"<p><div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintains the target price of Xiaomi (01810) at HK $28, which is equivalent to 28 times the forecast market ratio. At the same time, it raised the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"Hold\" to \"Outperform\". The bank believes that the recent correction in Xiaomi's stock price and the flexibility of its fundamentals under regulatory crackdowns have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was stable and better than expected, and the gross profit margin of the hardware business during the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectations. Group Announces Acquisition of Autonomous Driving Technology Company Deep for New EV Business...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daiwa: Xiaomi rises to outperform rating with target price of HK $28</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaiwa: Xiaomi rises to outperform rating with target price of HK $28\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪港股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 13:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintains the target price of Xiaomi (01810) at HK $28, which is equivalent to 28 times the forecast market ratio. At the same time, it raised the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"Hold\" to \"Outperform\". The bank believes that the recent correction in Xiaomi's stock price and the flexibility of its fundamentals under regulatory crackdowns have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was stable and better than expected, and the gross profit margin of the hardware business during the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectations. Group Announces Acquisition of Autonomous Driving Technology Company Deep for New EV Business...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">新浪港股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2ef4a4294363170f247fce5d7ae479","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2162010633","content_text":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831787129,"gmtCreate":1629349936161,"gmtModify":1676530011386,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831787129","repostId":"1151591091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800304338,"gmtCreate":1627275675924,"gmtModify":1703486543161,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is an error","listText":"This is an error","text":"This is an error","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800304338","repostId":"1127686463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162607824,"gmtCreate":1624060008268,"gmtModify":1703827720654,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162607824","repostId":"166207379","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":166207379,"gmtCreate":1624009730088,"gmtModify":1703826463812,"author":{"id":"3568081734360099","authorId":"3568081734360099","name":"何安迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7061d02e3c72d7ce21a375ae80cb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568081734360099","idStr":"3568081734360099"},"themes":[],"title":"一夜之間從65美元到清零，幣圈最大的噩夢終於出現了","htmlText":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","listText":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","text":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb8429eedd000b87168acb260f2d7f2","width":"240","height":"159"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37515ff8aca46379b035ee5dfd148e9e","width":"550","height":"268"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d949c356dc8ddbd3d861ef8132360e2d","width":"300","height":"300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166207379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325998229,"gmtCreate":1615855630161,"gmtModify":1704787473807,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325998229","repostId":"2119141992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296276,"gmtCreate":1615108172395,"gmtModify":1704778712701,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296276","repostId":"1150364023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150364023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615082582,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150364023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-07 10:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Apocalypse of the Big Fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150364023","media":" 阿基米德Biotech","summary":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世","content":"<p>Legend has it that a fish's memory is only 7 seconds.</p><p>How many days can investors remember?</p><p>We feel miserable today, but we forget that the market almost fell to the limit on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we even forget that after the GEM peaked on February 25th last year, the biggest drop was 20%.</p><p>After a while, I will forget the suffering of these days.</p><p>After a while, the world will remain the same, and the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for a long time will not change.</p><p><b>About Cycle</b></p><p>It is not too much interpretation of the sharp drop after the Spring Festival. It is temporarily regarded as repeating the standard process after the end of the spring market, which happens every year.</p><p>The decline of core assets is even greater than in previous years, because it rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal joy is bound to have a brutal ending.</p><p>The spring market will definitely come. Even in the bleak and rainy 2018, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has experienced 19 consecutive gains. The spring market will definitely go, and those who tell you that the bull market is coming are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market lasted for about 2 months, and the highest point almost corresponded to the maximum trading volume. During the decline, the volume gradually shrank, and the decline was rapid, reaching a stage low within one month. In the past two years, after the end of the spring market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the biggest drop of the GEM was 20%.</p><p>Now the decline of the market is not as good as in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that can't see the future, but it can clearly illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will it continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield continues to rise, representing a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. The Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising simultaneously. There is no boundary possibility of monetary policy relaxation, and all that remains is the question of when to turn.</p><p>Therefore, a warning voice immediately appeared: many people have not experienced a complete cycle, and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stocks.</p><p>I just want to say: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Any idea why you only invest in biomedicine? Just don't want to care about macro and cycles.</p><p>Under the systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>But as long as we survive the main decline and enter a period of shock, even if it is a negative decline, biomedicine is not afraid. The advantages of deterministic growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own operating track, and a structural market will emerge.</p><p>Deleveraging in 2018, no matter how bad the memory is, you may still feel sad. The market began to decline for a year in February, but CSI Medical and CSI Pharmaceutical hit a new high on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and The first centralized procurement could maintain positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Nowadays, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically cross bulls and bears, and we need to strengthen our confidence in times of adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About timing</b></p><p>There is an important phenomenon in the adjustment after the end of this spring market, and the trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have landed yet, or it is possible that residents' assets have been hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that the newly issued fund still had 565.5 billion yuan of funds ready to build positions, and 72 equity funds will be raised soon, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Lao Ba's words are full of wisdom and not outdated. Macro forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>Things at the macro level are unclear. Whether the bulls and bears will switch later and how liquidity will be tightened, I won't predict it, and it's not too timing.</p><p>What needs to be stable is risk appetite. Are you afraid when it falls, and when it rises, you think why you were afraid in the first place?</p><p>Have you experienced many rounds of warm and cold alternation, or can't you overcome this humanity?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too out of touch. The autumn and winter correction, the spring market, and the subsequent downward killing are very obvious and can be used. However, it is too timely to invest based on the forecast of bull-bear conversion and full-year decline.</p><p>Systemic risks will always pass. As long as there is no thunderstorm in the company itself and the growth logic is still there, it will eventually be repaired.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. It is impossible for young Christians to concentrate their money in traditional industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream is to allocate growth stocks with acceptable fundamentals.</p><p>The problem now is that the valuation is indeed overdrawn too much, and it will be valuable when it falls to a certain level. The top high-quality assets are digesting the valuation and looking for a balanced center. We can observe two anchors, one is Hengrui Medicine. If the existing valuation system does not collapse, it will be the anchor of the entire biomedical sector. The other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling. During the entire pullback/retracement, the volume can be released Not big enough.</p><p>The Shanghai Stock Exchange is still far away from the target position, and the GEM is coming soon. Be cautious enough and don't be too pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. When systemic risks are released, investors' concerns should return to fundamentals and growth.</p><p>Liquidity tightening has no impact on biomedical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotion and timing are not the most important things, but stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous sentence in Sun Tzu's Art of War: Know yourself and the enemy, and you will win a hundred battles. I didn't understand why the bland expression was regarded as the standard before. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is cognition, and it starts from cognizing yourself. After experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement, your heart should be touched, and you can consider reflecting from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Does the shareholding match your risk appetite? If the risk tolerance is poor, it is recommended not to or cautiously allocate high-valuation, unprofitable, and high-volatility stocks, and not to take heavy positions in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to deal with short-term and long-term relationships? If you are very concerned about short-term gains, it is recommended not to or to be cautious in allocating stocks with large long-term space but short-term mess.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Sort out the stocks that are beyond the cognitive atmosphere. It is difficult to understand high valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitable. You can choose the varieties that you can understand, so that your shareholding mentality is more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses, give yourself a chance to live, and give good stocks a chance to prove yourself. Tongce Medical, Aier Ophthalmology, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guard have experienced huge declines. How can they feel nothing? There is no need to have a strong heart, and the positions are indexed and decentralized, with ballast stones and a sense of hierarchy. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Recreation Guard have experienced many plunges, but they will rise even higher later, because the configuration is tolerant of short-term errors. Don't give yourself an opportunity for weaknesses to be exposed, and don't push good stocks to the wall.</p><p>The perceptual criterion to measure whether the portfolio position is reasonable is to make yourself feel comfortable and free of pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment will only mature after the change of warm and cold. Everything is not smooth sailing. Measuring investment in years will be much indifferent.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic of CXO's high growth is very hard, and the high valuation is not entirely caused by grouping. After the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>The medical service sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, looking for a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>The fundamentals and growth of Tongce Medical have not changed. The only problem is the high valuation. Short-term fund grouping is controversial, and the bargaining chips are loose.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the good business trend continued in the fourth quarter and January this year, and it opened on the fourth day of the new year. The year-on-year growth was good, and the basic market was stable.</p><p>The two growth curves ahead are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached breakeven in half a year, showing the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as unbearable as expected, and Wuhan has achieved good results. In October 2020, the monthly revenue was about 5.5 million, reaching the break-even line. Xi'an Cunji is the hope of expanding outside the province. It develops better than Wuhan, and its site selection and talents are very good. The trial operation started on October 9th, with an average monthly income of 3 million.</p><p>In the implant business, there are about 300,000 dental implants in Zhejiang Province, compared with 3 million implants a year in South Korea. There is a huge market space for dental implants in Zhejiang Province in the future.</p><p>Orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce develops its own digital oral system, which is more conducive to the promotion of orthodontic business.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 is 550 million, and it will maintain a growth rate of 30% in the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion, PE70, which means that the performance will be overdrafted for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overdraft and maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good track, it makes exclusive profits, other companies lose money, and has almost no sales expenses, so you can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor in the shock, and carefully observe the results first.</p><p>Time will heal everything, this is not chicken soup.</p><p>Dentistry belongs to the national consumer market, and the leading market value is less than 100 billion. Will it be like this forever?</p><p>Volatility is the norm in the market, and sometimes there are extremes that are already doomed at the moment of entering the market., Even after many rounds of ups and downs, we will always be more optimistic when we are optimistic, and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right and wrong, but doing it is another matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like people who don't get sick, who get sick once by chance. One month after the end of the spring market and one month at the end of the year, the beating is relatively miserable.</p><p>When the spring market was at its peak, I expressed a very pessimistic view. Now, I will also say that it will pass.</p>","source":"lsy1611662960640","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apocalypse of the Big Fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApocalypse of the Big Fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 阿基米德Biotech</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-07 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Legend has it that a fish's memory is only 7 seconds.</p><p>How many days can investors remember?</p><p>We feel miserable today, but we forget that the market almost fell to the limit on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we even forget that after the GEM peaked on February 25th last year, the biggest drop was 20%.</p><p>After a while, I will forget the suffering of these days.</p><p>After a while, the world will remain the same, and the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for a long time will not change.</p><p><b>About Cycle</b></p><p>It is not too much interpretation of the sharp drop after the Spring Festival. It is temporarily regarded as repeating the standard process after the end of the spring market, which happens every year.</p><p>The decline of core assets is even greater than in previous years, because it rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal joy is bound to have a brutal ending.</p><p>The spring market will definitely come. Even in the bleak and rainy 2018, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has experienced 19 consecutive gains. The spring market will definitely go, and those who tell you that the bull market is coming are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market lasted for about 2 months, and the highest point almost corresponded to the maximum trading volume. During the decline, the volume gradually shrank, and the decline was rapid, reaching a stage low within one month. In the past two years, after the end of the spring market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the biggest drop of the GEM was 20%.</p><p>Now the decline of the market is not as good as in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that can't see the future, but it can clearly illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will it continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield continues to rise, representing a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. The Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising simultaneously. There is no boundary possibility of monetary policy relaxation, and all that remains is the question of when to turn.</p><p>Therefore, a warning voice immediately appeared: many people have not experienced a complete cycle, and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stocks.</p><p>I just want to say: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Any idea why you only invest in biomedicine? Just don't want to care about macro and cycles.</p><p>Under the systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>But as long as we survive the main decline and enter a period of shock, even if it is a negative decline, biomedicine is not afraid. The advantages of deterministic growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own operating track, and a structural market will emerge.</p><p>Deleveraging in 2018, no matter how bad the memory is, you may still feel sad. The market began to decline for a year in February, but CSI Medical and CSI Pharmaceutical hit a new high on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and The first centralized procurement could maintain positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Nowadays, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically cross bulls and bears, and we need to strengthen our confidence in times of adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About timing</b></p><p>There is an important phenomenon in the adjustment after the end of this spring market, and the trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have landed yet, or it is possible that residents' assets have been hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that the newly issued fund still had 565.5 billion yuan of funds ready to build positions, and 72 equity funds will be raised soon, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Lao Ba's words are full of wisdom and not outdated. Macro forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>Things at the macro level are unclear. Whether the bulls and bears will switch later and how liquidity will be tightened, I won't predict it, and it's not too timing.</p><p>What needs to be stable is risk appetite. Are you afraid when it falls, and when it rises, you think why you were afraid in the first place?</p><p>Have you experienced many rounds of warm and cold alternation, or can't you overcome this humanity?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too out of touch. The autumn and winter correction, the spring market, and the subsequent downward killing are very obvious and can be used. However, it is too timely to invest based on the forecast of bull-bear conversion and full-year decline.</p><p>Systemic risks will always pass. As long as there is no thunderstorm in the company itself and the growth logic is still there, it will eventually be repaired.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. It is impossible for young Christians to concentrate their money in traditional industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream is to allocate growth stocks with acceptable fundamentals.</p><p>The problem now is that the valuation is indeed overdrawn too much, and it will be valuable when it falls to a certain level. The top high-quality assets are digesting the valuation and looking for a balanced center. We can observe two anchors, one is Hengrui Medicine. If the existing valuation system does not collapse, it will be the anchor of the entire biomedical sector. The other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling. During the entire pullback/retracement, the volume can be released Not big enough.</p><p>The Shanghai Stock Exchange is still far away from the target position, and the GEM is coming soon. Be cautious enough and don't be too pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. When systemic risks are released, investors' concerns should return to fundamentals and growth.</p><p>Liquidity tightening has no impact on biomedical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotion and timing are not the most important things, but stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous sentence in Sun Tzu's Art of War: Know yourself and the enemy, and you will win a hundred battles. I didn't understand why the bland expression was regarded as the standard before. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is cognition, and it starts from cognizing yourself. After experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement, your heart should be touched, and you can consider reflecting from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Does the shareholding match your risk appetite? If the risk tolerance is poor, it is recommended not to or cautiously allocate high-valuation, unprofitable, and high-volatility stocks, and not to take heavy positions in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to deal with short-term and long-term relationships? If you are very concerned about short-term gains, it is recommended not to or to be cautious in allocating stocks with large long-term space but short-term mess.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Sort out the stocks that are beyond the cognitive atmosphere. It is difficult to understand high valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitable. You can choose the varieties that you can understand, so that your shareholding mentality is more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses, give yourself a chance to live, and give good stocks a chance to prove yourself. Tongce Medical, Aier Ophthalmology, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guard have experienced huge declines. How can they feel nothing? There is no need to have a strong heart, and the positions are indexed and decentralized, with ballast stones and a sense of hierarchy. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Recreation Guard have experienced many plunges, but they will rise even higher later, because the configuration is tolerant of short-term errors. Don't give yourself an opportunity for weaknesses to be exposed, and don't push good stocks to the wall.</p><p>The perceptual criterion to measure whether the portfolio position is reasonable is to make yourself feel comfortable and free of pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment will only mature after the change of warm and cold. Everything is not smooth sailing. Measuring investment in years will be much indifferent.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic of CXO's high growth is very hard, and the high valuation is not entirely caused by grouping. After the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>The medical service sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, looking for a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>The fundamentals and growth of Tongce Medical have not changed. The only problem is the high valuation. Short-term fund grouping is controversial, and the bargaining chips are loose.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the good business trend continued in the fourth quarter and January this year, and it opened on the fourth day of the new year. The year-on-year growth was good, and the basic market was stable.</p><p>The two growth curves ahead are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached breakeven in half a year, showing the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as unbearable as expected, and Wuhan has achieved good results. In October 2020, the monthly revenue was about 5.5 million, reaching the break-even line. Xi'an Cunji is the hope of expanding outside the province. It develops better than Wuhan, and its site selection and talents are very good. The trial operation started on October 9th, with an average monthly income of 3 million.</p><p>In the implant business, there are about 300,000 dental implants in Zhejiang Province, compared with 3 million implants a year in South Korea. There is a huge market space for dental implants in Zhejiang Province in the future.</p><p>Orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce develops its own digital oral system, which is more conducive to the promotion of orthodontic business.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 is 550 million, and it will maintain a growth rate of 30% in the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion, PE70, which means that the performance will be overdrafted for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overdraft and maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good track, it makes exclusive profits, other companies lose money, and has almost no sales expenses, so you can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor in the shock, and carefully observe the results first.</p><p>Time will heal everything, this is not chicken soup.</p><p>Dentistry belongs to the national consumer market, and the leading market value is less than 100 billion. Will it be like this forever?</p><p>Volatility is the norm in the market, and sometimes there are extremes that are already doomed at the moment of entering the market., Even after many rounds of ups and downs, we will always be more optimistic when we are optimistic, and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right and wrong, but doing it is another matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like people who don't get sick, who get sick once by chance. One month after the end of the spring market and one month at the end of the year, the beating is relatively miserable.</p><p>When the spring market was at its peak, I expressed a very pessimistic view. Now, I will also say that it will pass.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ\"> 阿基米德Biotech</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00dac9da971ee0e08b72a17d0d0b507","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150364023","content_text":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世界还是老样子，拥抱核心资产、长持优质公司的局面不会改变的。\n关于周期\n对春节后大跌不过分演绎，暂时看作重复春季行情结束后的标准流程，每年都会发生的事情。\n核心资产跌幅比往年更大，是因为节前上涨过多，所谓残暴的欢愉，必将有残暴的结局。\n春季行情一定会来，即使凄风冷雨的2018年，上证50也出现了19连涨。春季行情也一定会走，告诉你牛市来了的人是最坏的。\n以往春季行情持续2个月左右，最高点几乎与最大成交量对应，在下跌过程中逐步缩量，而且下跌快速，在一个月内见到阶段低点。过去两年，春季行情结束后，上证指数跌幅超过10%，创业板最大跌幅为20%。\n现在大盘跌幅还不及往年。\n历史是一面镜子，不能看见未来，但可以照清我们所在的位置。\n在标准流程走完之后，是否会持续下跌？美国10年期国债收益率持续走高，代表实际利率回升，通胀升温，中国10年期国债收益率，也在同步走高。货币政策已无边际放松的可能，剩下的只是何时转向的问题。\n所以，立即有警告的声音出现：很多人没有经历过完整的周期轮回，看不见商品周期与科技股周期轮回。\n我只想说：去你的周期！\n知道为什么只投资生物医药吗？就是不想关心宏观和周期。\n系统性危机之下，无一幸免。\n但只要渡过主跌浪，进入震荡期，哪怕是阴跌，生物医药都不怕，头部公司确定性增长的优势将体现，回到自己的运行轨道上来，出现结构性行情。\n2018年去杠杆，记忆再不好可能依旧心有戚戚焉，大盘从2月开始为期一年的阴跌，但中证医疗、中证医药却在5月29日创出新高，如果不是贸易问题和第一次集采，全年可维持正收益。\n如今，贸易问题和集采不再是问题。\n生物医药基本上可以穿越牛熊，我们在逆境时需要坚定信心。\n\n关于择时\n这波春季行情结束之后的调整，有一个重要现象，成交量一直保持平稳。\n只有成交量不会撒谎。\n这到底意味着什么呢？\n流动性收紧可能还没落地，也有可能居民资产通过基金入市有所对冲。\n此前新发基金预估仍有5655亿元资金准备建仓，接下来还有72只权益类基金即将募集，规模预估为3271亿元。\n老巴的话充满了智慧，没有过时，宏观预测对股票投资无意义。\n宏观层面的东西扯不清楚，后面牛熊是否转换、流动性如何收紧，就不预测，不过分择时了。\n需要保持平稳的还有风险偏好，是不是跌的时候怕，涨的时候又觉得当初为什么要怕？\n是不是经历过多轮冷暖交替，还是无法克服这种人性？\n长线投资者无视任何波动，太不食人间烟火，秋冬回调、春季行情、随后的下杀，规律非常明显，是可以利用的。但基于牛熊转换、全年下跌的预测来投资，又过于择时了。\n系统性风险始终会过去的，只要公司本身没有暴雷，成长逻辑还在，最后都会修复的。\n居民资产入市是不可逆的，年轻基民的钱不可能集中于钢铁、有色、煤炭、银行这些传统行业，主流还是配置基本面尚可的成长股。\n现在的问题是估值确实透支得太厉害，跌到一定程度就有价值了，头部优质资产正在消化估值，寻找一个平衡的中枢。我们可以观察两个锚，一个是恒瑞医药，如果现有估值体系不崩溃，就是整个生物医药板块的定海神针，另一个是通策医疗什么时候止跌，整个回撤过程中，量能放得不够大。\n上证离目标位还有较大距离，创业板快到了，保持足够谨慎，也不用过于悲观。\n优质股票长期而言是由内生增长驱动，当系统性风险释放后，投资者的关切应回到基本面和成长性上。\n流动性收紧对生物医药业绩无影响，在存量经济时代，可持续的高增长有稀缺性，可享受溢价。\n情绪、择时不是最重要的事情，选股、配置才是。\n\n关于认知\n《孙子兵法》中最出名的一句话：知己知彼,百战不殆。以前不明白为什么很平淡的表述，被奉为圭臬。现在懂了，凡事最重要的是认知，而且是从认知自己开始，经历这波回撤，各位内心应有触动，可考虑从以下方面进行反思。\n1、持股是否与自己的风险偏好匹配？如果风险承受能力差，建议不要或谨慎配置高估值、未盈利、高波动股票，不要重仓疫苗股、港股、CXO。\n2、怎么处理短期和长期的关系？如果非常在意短期收益，建议不要或谨慎配置长期空间大但短期一塌糊涂的股票。\n3、不懂不做，对超出认知氛围的股票进行整理，高估值、大市值、未盈利都难以理解，可以选择能理解的品种，这样持股心态更平稳。\n4、不要去挑衅自己的弱点，给自己活下去的机会，给好股票证明自己的机会。通策医疗、爱尔眼科、华韩整形、康乐卫士跌幅巨大，怎样做到毫无感觉？无需内心强大，对持仓进行指数化分散配置，有压舱石有层次感。华韩整形、康乐卫士经历过多次暴跌，但过后又会涨得更高，因为配置对短期错误有包容性。不要给自己弱点暴露的机会，也不要把好股票逼上绝境。\n衡量组合仓位是否合理的感性标准，就是让自己感到舒服，没有压力。\n长线投资经过冷暖更迭才会成熟，凡事没有一帆风顺的，以年为单位来度量投资会淡然许多。\n关于通策\nCXO高增长逻辑很硬，高估值不完全是抱团所致，市场企稳之后又将是反弹最快的板块。\n病去如抽丝，医疗服务板块估计会持续震荡，寻找估值中枢，等待市场重新达成共识。\n基本面的崩溃是无底深渊。\n通策医疗的基本面和成长性没变，唯一问题是高估值，短期基金抱团受到争议，筹码松动。\n据通策医疗交流会透露，四季度和今年1月份延续良好的经营趋势，年初四就开业，同比增长良好，基本盘是稳定的。\n未来两条增长曲线是正常的。蒲公英计划推进顺利，部分诊所半年达到盈亏平衡，显示商业模式的可复制性。省外存济医院没有预期那么不堪，武汉取得很好效果。2020年10月单月550万左右收入，达到盈亏平衡线。西安存济是省外拓展的希望，比武汉发展更好，选址体量和人才都很好。10月9号开始试营业，平均月收入300万。\n种植业务，浙江全省大约30万颗，对标韩国一年300万颗，浙江省未来种植牙市场空间很大。\n正畸业务，年轻人正畸需求很旺盛，通策开发自己的数字化口腔系统，更有利于推广正畸业务。\n2020年估计利润5.5亿，未来两年维持30%增速，2023年利润12亿，PE70，也就是说业绩透支两三年。\n现在的问题是市场能不能接受估值透支，能不能维持30%增速。\n作为好赛道唯一龙头，独家盈利，别家亏损，销售费用几乎没有，是可以享受高溢价的。\n市场会在震荡中寻找到一个合适的锚，先谨慎观察结果。\n时间会治愈一切，这不是鸡汤。\n牙科属于全民级消费市场，龙头市值不到1000亿，会永远这样吗？\n波动是市场的常态，有时会遇到极端情况，这是进入市场的那一刻已经注定的。，即使经历过多轮涨跌，我们也总是会在乐观时更加乐观，悲观时更加悲观，明知对错，但做起来是另外一回事。\n生物医药大部时间比较平稳，就像不生病的人，偶然生一次病就病来如山倒。春季行情结束后一个月，年末一个月，挨打都比较惨。\n在春季行情最亢奋的时候，表达了非常悲观的看法。现在，我也要说，一切都会过去的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296135,"gmtCreate":1615108128227,"gmtModify":1704778713992,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"o(∩_∩)o","listText":"o(∩_∩)o","text":"o(∩_∩)o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296135","repostId":"367210472","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":367210472,"gmtCreate":1614953502796,"gmtModify":1704777393275,"author":{"id":"39105730803552","authorId":"39105730803552","name":"格隆汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8774dfe20eceb38c9645128bb6e60684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"39105730803552","idStr":"39105730803552"},"themes":[],"title":"SPAC?不就是穿上馬甲的次貸麼","htmlText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","listText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","text":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/defba801566b7ef284c60411abf03e21","width":"1150","height":"832"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a2ea2dd4ddc860b76248eabaa836713","width":"576","height":"425"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04912baf968ccaf9e0cf0433f58dcd7","width":"622","height":"350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367210472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296918,"gmtCreate":1615108094634,"gmtModify":1704778712379,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296918","repostId":"362539769","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":362539769,"gmtCreate":1614647792251,"gmtModify":1704773471458,"author":{"id":"3473897258980608","authorId":"3473897258980608","name":"生财小王子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda8b36c8158f92ecbc8381b5c65c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3473897258980608","idStr":"3473897258980608"},"themes":[],"title":"搞投資，聽說你還不懂PE、ROE及ROA的意義？一文講明白","htmlText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","listText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","text":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8a4fd09f0b66373422754edf89a2b","width":"640","height":"234"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69b5659348a6e6abd7d72a1b92655e7","width":"640","height":"1137"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a683acaf97eb94dcc597f38ecb17f6","width":"640","height":"342"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362539769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360505812,"gmtCreate":1613952505136,"gmtModify":1704886046375,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360505812","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360662299,"gmtCreate":1613907867911,"gmtModify":1704885842202,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360662299","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360995789,"gmtCreate":1613806050641,"gmtModify":1704885243792,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360995789","repostId":"2112897171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2112897171","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1613787793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2112897171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 10:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Deep thinking: What is the value logic of Bitcoin?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112897171","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"当年，我在写书的过程中，一度苦苦思索：“比特币是否具有真正的投资价值，它的边界在何处？”当然，需要指出的是，理解了比特币的价值逻辑，和勇于投入比特币还是两回事。这个问题，其实已经在上述的书里有相当清晰的阐述，出于对原书负责人的尊重以及版权关系，我在这里不便展开，但是可以在本文简要探讨一下，自2020年以来的比特币价值发展逻辑到底是什么。新增市值的翻倍，意味着比特币的未来价格可能也得相应调整。","content":"<p>After the Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve, the unit price of Bitcoin continuously broke through record highs. As of 7:00 on February 18, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar rose by nearly 6% in the past 24 hours, hitting $52,621.84 during the session, setting a record high.</p><p>For this price, the author's heart has been calm.</p><p>But there are still many friends around me who are constantly asking, why can Bitcoin rise so much, and where is its value? In 2019, my friends and I were invited by blockchain and virtual asset research institutions in Hong Kong and the Mainland to write a book on cryptocurrency and virtual asset management, and we also thought about this issue for a long time.</p><p>At that time, in the process of writing a book, I once thought hard:<b>\"Does Bitcoin have real investment value, and where are its boundaries?\"</b></p><p>To this end, I re-read the currency and banking textbooks in college and graduate school, had many in-depth conversations with my finance doctoral supervisor (who also has a strong interest in cryptocurrency research), and had many in-depth conversations with experts who are engaged in blockchain and virtual asset research on the front line. I finally found an asset valuation method for cryptocurrency in Bitcoin that conforms to the traditional value determination method.</p><p>Now, this book is finally completed. The title of the book is \"Redefining Finance: Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets\" (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press). I think this book may also be a very in-depth and comprehensive book on virtual asset management on the market so far.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that understanding Bitcoin's value logic and having the courage to invest in Bitcoin are two different things. The best is my own example: when I first started writing the book, Bitcoin was about $7,200 a piece. By the time the book was finally released in October 2020, Bitcoin had already stood firmly at $12,000. Even so, to be honest, I didn't expect Bitcoin to rise to more than $50,000 now, otherwise I might have washed my hands in the golden basin.</p><p>Given that a lot of people have my early confusion about where Bitcoin's value lies, I felt compelled to write a little bit. This issue has actually been explained quite clearly in the above-mentioned book. Out of respect for the person in charge of the original book and the copyright relationship, it is inconvenient for me to expand on it here, but I can briefly discuss in this article the value of Bitcoin since 2020. What is the development logic?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add1b0da5c3d48f88e8f6f44c3bca01e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Bitcoin payment value is further tapped</b></p><p>In the process of writing the book, the author and I studied the operating logic of the Bitcoin and the logic of value evolution. In the end, everyone believed that digital currency had a subversive substitute for many fields of traditional finance.</p><p>For example, the functions of Bitcoin in payment methods and value storage are increasingly recognized by institutional investors at this stage, and as it is further accepted by institutional investors and traditional financial institutions, its function of value scale may also be further supported.</p><p>Speaking of institutional support, here we have to mention a few things that happened in 2020.</p><p><b>The first is the cooperation of traditional financial institutions.</b>One of the most significant changes for Bitcoin in 2020 is that in early October 2020, the world-renowned online payment system<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>The announcement stated that it will allow users to buy, hold and sell multiple cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, on its platform. In addition to trading Bitcoin, PayPal also proposed that it will allow shopping using cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin-<b>This directly gives Bitcoin the same payment function as ordinary fiat currency, which is an important milestone for cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>Although the commercial application scenarios that can actually apply Bitcoin are very limited, PayPal's approach is equivalent to opening a door for Bitcoin to move towards traditional commercial transactions.</b>According to PayPal's announcement, it will allow 26 million PayPal partner stores to begin accepting payments from PayPal in cryptocurrencies in 2021, which include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin. PayPal plans to gradually promote the app to other markets around the world.</p><p>If the PayPal plan is successfully implemented, the Bitcoin will be used as a payment tool to move from the Jianghu to the palace. According to PayPal's plan, users still need to exchange the cryptocurrency in their accounts into legal tender before they can shop, but PayPal provides a conversion platform function, which will make the circulation of Bitcoin smoother. The market expects that this will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand to Bitcoin, while Bitcoin only had a market value of about 300 billion dollars at that time. The doubling of the new market value means that the future price of Bitcoin may have to be adjusted accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85712814a6462189741fc429248f58\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors accelerate allocation</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the active positions of institutional investors have made Bitcoin and related digital currencies officially an independent asset class.</b>If PayPal's announcement only outlines a map of fundamental changes for Bitcoin, then the participation of large American funds directly drives up liquidity in the Bitcoin market.</p><p><b>The most famous of these is the Grayscale Trust.</b>Grayscale is the world's largest digital currency asset management company. The company's English name is Greyscale Investments (Greyscale for short). Grayscale was launched by Digital Currency Group in 2013 with the goal of becoming a \"trustworthy authority in digital currency investment.\"</p><p>Public information shows that the company has publicly collected Bitcoin in the market since 2013. Among them, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), established on September 25, 2013, is Grayscale's largest encrypted digital asset trust product.</p><p>The operation of GBTC is similar to that of ETF (exchange-traded fund), but it does not have a redemption mechanism like ETF (that is, investors can request to exchange each share of ETF for the corresponding underlying assets), and there is also a 12-month lock-up period in the secondary market. Moreover, the primary market subscription of GBTC is only for qualified investors (personal net assets need to exceed USD 1 million or annual income exceeds USD 200,000 for two consecutive years), and the subscription threshold investment amount is at least USD 50,000.</p><p>As of December 2020, the total position of GBTC increased by 58.3% to nearly 570,000 Bitcoin in less than half a year, indicating that in the second half of 2020, a large amount of institutional funds began to pour into Bitcoin. Entering 2021, the pace of buying GBTC is still accelerating. From the beginning of January to the deadline of this article in mid-February, the Bitcoin held by GBTC has increased by nearly 80,000 to 650,000 Bitcoin.</p><p>Due to product design problems, Grayscale is like a Pixiu that only eats but does not vomit. It continues to buy Bitcoin, and can only buy and hold silently. This move has brought a certain demonstration effect to institutional investors.</p><p>In addition to Grayscale, there are other institutions that are constantly pouring into this market, including Galax Digital, which specializes in institutional investors. Michael Novogratz, founder, CEO and chairman of the agency, is a traditional<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>Elite figure, former partner and president of Fortress Investment Group LLC, and previously served as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Partner and served on the Investment Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for 3 years. Galax Digital specializes in buying cryptocurrencies for institutional investors, so its active entry is also interpreted as a signal for institutions to accelerate their entry into the market.</p><p>In addition, on October 8, 2020, mobile payment giant Square also announced an investment of US $50 million in Bitcoin. On October 13, 2020, Stone Ridge Holdings, which has a management scale of more than US $10 billion, announced that it had purchased more than 10,000 Bitcoin pieces worth approximately US $114 million as part of its asset reserve strategy.</p><p>As the market effect of PayPal and Grayscale continues to expand, more and more institutional investors are increasing their demand for cryptocurrencies. The latest case is February 8, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Announced that it is expected to begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment. According to the new policy, Tesla has invested a total of US $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. Tesla founder Musk even changed his avatar to Bitcoin. As soon as this news came out, Bitcoin was quickly pulled up to exceed the $40,000 mark in the short term, with an intraday increase of 11% to $43,172, setting a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0fb4452872548c7983d8860f3e9edb5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Clear regulatory attitude reduces uncertainty</b></p><p><b>The third driving force is the clarification of global regulatory attitudes in 2020, which greatly reduces investors' uncertainty about Bitcoin's later development.</b>Basically, in 2020, regulatory agencies around the world have introduced corresponding measures or policies towards Bitcoin, and have begun to take a more positive attitude towards Bitcoin and virtual asset transactions, such as deciding to adopt standardized regulatory means instead of blindly rejecting or ignoring its development.</p><p>The regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is another separate topic. The author only introduces the general background here.</p><p>The United Nations Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF) proposed regulating virtual assets in 2015. In February 2019, the FATF required member states to extend anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) to the field of virtual assets, and proposed two main options:</p><p><b>(1) Either completely cancel virtual asset transactions;</b></p><p><b>(2) Either bring virtual assets into licensing supervision.</b></p><p>Judging from the current development of the United States, Singapore and Hong Kong, governments of various countries should be more inclined to bring virtual assets into the scope of legal licensing supervision, rather than blindly refusing them.</p><p>In Singapore, on December 10, 2020, DBS Bank announced the launch of the \"DBS Digital Exchange\" (DBS Digital Exchange), which includes the tokenisation, trading and custody of digital assets. Through this platform, DBS uses blockchain technology to provide monetization and secondary market transactions of digital assets including cryptocurrencies, including securities token issuance, digital currency transactions and digital custody services.</p><p>DBS announced that it will provide mutual exchange services for four currencies (Singapore dollar, US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen) and four of the most mature cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple). The above services have been approved in principle by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Compared with Singapore, Hong Kong's pace is slower, but the situation is also developing positively. Also in 2020, as a member of the FATF, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China clearly proposed to bring virtual assets into supervision, and launched a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Consultation, and publicly consult opinions from all sectors of society on whether virtual asset exchanges need to be licensed.</p><p>The previous year, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) actually issued a \"Position Statement\" on virtual asset trading activities in November 2019, allowing virtual asset trading platforms to voluntarily apply for licenses, but this practice only applies to securities-based virtual asset trading platforms, and platforms for non-securities virtual asset trading services are not regulated by this system.</p><p>Therefore, in Hong Kong's public consultation that began in 2020, the author believes that Hong Kong regulators have shown a clearer attitude, that is, virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies should be included in legal trading procedures, rather than shut them out.</p><p>In the long run, it seems that global governments have no plans to join forces to suppress Bitcoin at present. As of February 18th, the market value of Bitcoin is approaching US $1 trillion, which has not yet exceeded the gold market (about US $10 trillion), and it cannot be compared with the traditional bond and stock markets. According to a report by CICC, the stock size of the overall bond market in the United States alone has exceeded $50 trillion.</p><p>However, considering the limited number of theories in Bitcoin, the continuous depreciation of traditional legal tender due to the wide quantity, and Bitcoin's unique mining mechanism, no one dares to say whether the market value of Bitcoin will exceed other kinds of assets in the future. At that time, Bitcoin will be used as a substitute for gold by individual central banks, or it will be jointly stifled by various countries. We have to take one step at a time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Deep thinking: What is the value logic of Bitcoin?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDeep thinking: What is the value logic of Bitcoin?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-20 10:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve, the unit price of Bitcoin continuously broke through record highs. As of 7:00 on February 18, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar rose by nearly 6% in the past 24 hours, hitting $52,621.84 during the session, setting a record high.</p><p>For this price, the author's heart has been calm.</p><p>But there are still many friends around me who are constantly asking, why can Bitcoin rise so much, and where is its value? In 2019, my friends and I were invited by blockchain and virtual asset research institutions in Hong Kong and the Mainland to write a book on cryptocurrency and virtual asset management, and we also thought about this issue for a long time.</p><p>At that time, in the process of writing a book, I once thought hard:<b>\"Does Bitcoin have real investment value, and where are its boundaries?\"</b></p><p>To this end, I re-read the currency and banking textbooks in college and graduate school, had many in-depth conversations with my finance doctoral supervisor (who also has a strong interest in cryptocurrency research), and had many in-depth conversations with experts who are engaged in blockchain and virtual asset research on the front line. I finally found an asset valuation method for cryptocurrency in Bitcoin that conforms to the traditional value determination method.</p><p>Now, this book is finally completed. The title of the book is \"Redefining Finance: Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets\" (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press). I think this book may also be a very in-depth and comprehensive book on virtual asset management on the market so far.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that understanding Bitcoin's value logic and having the courage to invest in Bitcoin are two different things. The best is my own example: when I first started writing the book, Bitcoin was about $7,200 a piece. By the time the book was finally released in October 2020, Bitcoin had already stood firmly at $12,000. Even so, to be honest, I didn't expect Bitcoin to rise to more than $50,000 now, otherwise I might have washed my hands in the golden basin.</p><p>Given that a lot of people have my early confusion about where Bitcoin's value lies, I felt compelled to write a little bit. This issue has actually been explained quite clearly in the above-mentioned book. Out of respect for the person in charge of the original book and the copyright relationship, it is inconvenient for me to expand on it here, but I can briefly discuss in this article the value of Bitcoin since 2020. What is the development logic?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add1b0da5c3d48f88e8f6f44c3bca01e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Bitcoin payment value is further tapped</b></p><p>In the process of writing the book, the author and I studied the operating logic of the Bitcoin and the logic of value evolution. In the end, everyone believed that digital currency had a subversive substitute for many fields of traditional finance.</p><p>For example, the functions of Bitcoin in payment methods and value storage are increasingly recognized by institutional investors at this stage, and as it is further accepted by institutional investors and traditional financial institutions, its function of value scale may also be further supported.</p><p>Speaking of institutional support, here we have to mention a few things that happened in 2020.</p><p><b>The first is the cooperation of traditional financial institutions.</b>One of the most significant changes for Bitcoin in 2020 is that in early October 2020, the world-renowned online payment system<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>The announcement stated that it will allow users to buy, hold and sell multiple cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, on its platform. In addition to trading Bitcoin, PayPal also proposed that it will allow shopping using cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin-<b>This directly gives Bitcoin the same payment function as ordinary fiat currency, which is an important milestone for cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>Although the commercial application scenarios that can actually apply Bitcoin are very limited, PayPal's approach is equivalent to opening a door for Bitcoin to move towards traditional commercial transactions.</b>According to PayPal's announcement, it will allow 26 million PayPal partner stores to begin accepting payments from PayPal in cryptocurrencies in 2021, which include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin. PayPal plans to gradually promote the app to other markets around the world.</p><p>If the PayPal plan is successfully implemented, the Bitcoin will be used as a payment tool to move from the Jianghu to the palace. According to PayPal's plan, users still need to exchange the cryptocurrency in their accounts into legal tender before they can shop, but PayPal provides a conversion platform function, which will make the circulation of Bitcoin smoother. The market expects that this will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand to Bitcoin, while Bitcoin only had a market value of about 300 billion dollars at that time. The doubling of the new market value means that the future price of Bitcoin may have to be adjusted accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85712814a6462189741fc429248f58\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors accelerate allocation</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the active positions of institutional investors have made Bitcoin and related digital currencies officially an independent asset class.</b>If PayPal's announcement only outlines a map of fundamental changes for Bitcoin, then the participation of large American funds directly drives up liquidity in the Bitcoin market.</p><p><b>The most famous of these is the Grayscale Trust.</b>Grayscale is the world's largest digital currency asset management company. The company's English name is Greyscale Investments (Greyscale for short). Grayscale was launched by Digital Currency Group in 2013 with the goal of becoming a \"trustworthy authority in digital currency investment.\"</p><p>Public information shows that the company has publicly collected Bitcoin in the market since 2013. Among them, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), established on September 25, 2013, is Grayscale's largest encrypted digital asset trust product.</p><p>The operation of GBTC is similar to that of ETF (exchange-traded fund), but it does not have a redemption mechanism like ETF (that is, investors can request to exchange each share of ETF for the corresponding underlying assets), and there is also a 12-month lock-up period in the secondary market. Moreover, the primary market subscription of GBTC is only for qualified investors (personal net assets need to exceed USD 1 million or annual income exceeds USD 200,000 for two consecutive years), and the subscription threshold investment amount is at least USD 50,000.</p><p>As of December 2020, the total position of GBTC increased by 58.3% to nearly 570,000 Bitcoin in less than half a year, indicating that in the second half of 2020, a large amount of institutional funds began to pour into Bitcoin. Entering 2021, the pace of buying GBTC is still accelerating. From the beginning of January to the deadline of this article in mid-February, the Bitcoin held by GBTC has increased by nearly 80,000 to 650,000 Bitcoin.</p><p>Due to product design problems, Grayscale is like a Pixiu that only eats but does not vomit. It continues to buy Bitcoin, and can only buy and hold silently. This move has brought a certain demonstration effect to institutional investors.</p><p>In addition to Grayscale, there are other institutions that are constantly pouring into this market, including Galax Digital, which specializes in institutional investors. Michael Novogratz, founder, CEO and chairman of the agency, is a traditional<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>Elite figure, former partner and president of Fortress Investment Group LLC, and previously served as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Partner and served on the Investment Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for 3 years. Galax Digital specializes in buying cryptocurrencies for institutional investors, so its active entry is also interpreted as a signal for institutions to accelerate their entry into the market.</p><p>In addition, on October 8, 2020, mobile payment giant Square also announced an investment of US $50 million in Bitcoin. On October 13, 2020, Stone Ridge Holdings, which has a management scale of more than US $10 billion, announced that it had purchased more than 10,000 Bitcoin pieces worth approximately US $114 million as part of its asset reserve strategy.</p><p>As the market effect of PayPal and Grayscale continues to expand, more and more institutional investors are increasing their demand for cryptocurrencies. The latest case is February 8, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Announced that it is expected to begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment. According to the new policy, Tesla has invested a total of US $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. Tesla founder Musk even changed his avatar to Bitcoin. As soon as this news came out, Bitcoin was quickly pulled up to exceed the $40,000 mark in the short term, with an intraday increase of 11% to $43,172, setting a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0fb4452872548c7983d8860f3e9edb5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Clear regulatory attitude reduces uncertainty</b></p><p><b>The third driving force is the clarification of global regulatory attitudes in 2020, which greatly reduces investors' uncertainty about Bitcoin's later development.</b>Basically, in 2020, regulatory agencies around the world have introduced corresponding measures or policies towards Bitcoin, and have begun to take a more positive attitude towards Bitcoin and virtual asset transactions, such as deciding to adopt standardized regulatory means instead of blindly rejecting or ignoring its development.</p><p>The regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is another separate topic. The author only introduces the general background here.</p><p>The United Nations Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF) proposed regulating virtual assets in 2015. In February 2019, the FATF required member states to extend anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) to the field of virtual assets, and proposed two main options:</p><p><b>(1) Either completely cancel virtual asset transactions;</b></p><p><b>(2) Either bring virtual assets into licensing supervision.</b></p><p>Judging from the current development of the United States, Singapore and Hong Kong, governments of various countries should be more inclined to bring virtual assets into the scope of legal licensing supervision, rather than blindly refusing them.</p><p>In Singapore, on December 10, 2020, DBS Bank announced the launch of the \"DBS Digital Exchange\" (DBS Digital Exchange), which includes the tokenisation, trading and custody of digital assets. Through this platform, DBS uses blockchain technology to provide monetization and secondary market transactions of digital assets including cryptocurrencies, including securities token issuance, digital currency transactions and digital custody services.</p><p>DBS announced that it will provide mutual exchange services for four currencies (Singapore dollar, US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen) and four of the most mature cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple). The above services have been approved in principle by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Compared with Singapore, Hong Kong's pace is slower, but the situation is also developing positively. Also in 2020, as a member of the FATF, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China clearly proposed to bring virtual assets into supervision, and launched a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Consultation, and publicly consult opinions from all sectors of society on whether virtual asset exchanges need to be licensed.</p><p>The previous year, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) actually issued a \"Position Statement\" on virtual asset trading activities in November 2019, allowing virtual asset trading platforms to voluntarily apply for licenses, but this practice only applies to securities-based virtual asset trading platforms, and platforms for non-securities virtual asset trading services are not regulated by this system.</p><p>Therefore, in Hong Kong's public consultation that began in 2020, the author believes that Hong Kong regulators have shown a clearer attitude, that is, virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies should be included in legal trading procedures, rather than shut them out.</p><p>In the long run, it seems that global governments have no plans to join forces to suppress Bitcoin at present. As of February 18th, the market value of Bitcoin is approaching US $1 trillion, which has not yet exceeded the gold market (about US $10 trillion), and it cannot be compared with the traditional bond and stock markets. According to a report by CICC, the stock size of the overall bond market in the United States alone has exceeded $50 trillion.</p><p>However, considering the limited number of theories in Bitcoin, the continuous depreciation of traditional legal tender due to the wide quantity, and Bitcoin's unique mining mechanism, no one dares to say whether the market value of Bitcoin will exceed other kinds of assets in the future. At that time, Bitcoin will be used as a substitute for gold by individual central banks, or it will be jointly stifled by various countries. We have to take one step at a time.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a445b50c964238b080d2c25e6bf133","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","CAN":"嘉楠科技","EBON":"亿邦国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112897171","content_text":"中国农历除夕之后，比特币单价连续突破历史新高。截至北京时间2月18日7时，比特币对美元的价格在过去24小时内上涨近6%，盘中触及52621.84美元，再创历史新高。\n对于这个价格，笔者心里已经波澜不惊。\n但是身边仍然有很多朋友不断地在问，为什么比特币能涨这么多，它的价值到底在哪里？这个问题，在我于2019年和朋友受香港和内地两地的区块链及虚拟资产研究机构的邀请，撰写一本关于加密货币与虚拟资产管理的书时，也曾经思考很久。\n当年，我在写书的过程中，一度苦苦思索：“比特币是否具有真正的投资价值，它的边界在何处？”\n为此，我重新翻阅了大学和研究生时代的货币银行学课本，跟自己的金融学博导进行了多次深入的对话（他对于加密货币研究也有浓厚的兴趣），并且和正在第一线从事区块链和虚拟资产研究的专家进行了多次深入的对话，我终为比特币这种加密货币找到了符合传统价值认定方式的资产估值方式。\n现在，这本书终于完成了，书名是《重新定义金融：加密货币与数字资产》（西南财经大学出版社），我自认为，这本书可能也是迄今为止市面上关于虚拟资产管理的非常深入、全面的书。\n当然，需要指出的是，理解了比特币的价值逻辑，和勇于投入比特币还是两回事。最好的就是自己的例子：就在我刚开始写书的时候，比特币是约7200美元一枚，到2020年10月全书收官发行时，比特币已经稳稳地站上了12000美元。即便这样，说实话，我也没想到比特币会涨至现在的超过5万美元，不然可能早已金盆洗手了。\n鉴于很多人都有我早期的困惑，即比特币的价值在哪里，我觉得有必要写一点东西。这个问题，其实已经在上述的书里有相当清晰的阐述，出于对原书负责人的尊重以及版权关系，我在这里不便展开，但是可以在本文简要探讨一下，自2020年以来的比特币价值发展逻辑到底是什么。\n\n01\n比特币支付价值被进一步挖掘\n在写书过程中，我和著作者一起研究了比特币的运作逻辑和价值演变的逻辑，最后大家认为，数字货币对传统金融的很多领域，都具有颠覆性的替代作用。\n举例来说，比特币在支付方式和价值储藏方面的功能正越来越被现阶段的机构投资者认可，而随着它被机构投资人和传统金融机构进一步接受，其价值尺度的功能也可能会进一步得到支持。\n说到机构的支持，这里就不得不提及2020年发生的几件事。\n首先是传统金融机构的配合。2020年对于比特币来说最具意义的一个变化是，在2020年10月初，全球知名在线支付系统PayPal发布公告称，它将允许用户在其平台上购买、持有和出售包括比特币在内的多种加密货币。除了交易比特币，PayPal还提出，将允许使用比特币等加密货币进行购物——这直接赋予比特币与普通法币一样的支付功能，这是加密货币的一个重要里程碑事件。\n尽管可以实际应用比特币的商业应用场景非常有限，但PayPal的做法相当于已经为比特币打开了一道迈向传统商业交易的大门。根据PayPal的公告，它将允许2600万家PayPal合作商店在2021年开始接受PayPal以加密货币付款，这些加密货币包括比特币、以太坊、比特币现金和莱特币。PayPal计划将该应用逐步向全球其他市场推广。\n如果PayPal计划成功推行，则比特币将作为支付工具，从江湖走向殿堂。根据PayPal的计划，用户仍然需要将账户中的加密货币先兑换成法币才能购物，但PayPal提供了转换平台功能，将令比特币的流通更为顺畅。市场预期，这会给比特币带来数千亿美元的新增需求，而当时比特币只有约3000亿美元左右的市值。新增市值的翻倍，意味着比特币的未来价格可能也得相应调整。\n\n02\n机构投资者加速配置\n其次是机构投资者的积极持仓，使得比特币和相关的数字货币已经正式成为一个独立的资产类别。如果说PayPal的一纸公告只是给比特币勾画了一个基本面变化的版图，那么美国大型基金的参与，则直接驱升了比特币市场里的流动性。\n其中最有名的是灰度信托基金。灰度是世界上最大的数字货币资产管理公司，公司英文名称是Greyscale Investments（简称Greyscale），Grayscale由Digital Currency Group于2013年发起，目标是成为“数字货币投资方面值得信赖的权威机构”。\n公开资料显示，该公司自2013年开始公开在市场上收集比特币。其中，2013年9月25日成立的灰度比特币信托（GBTC）是灰度旗下规模最大的加密数字资产信托产品。\nGBTC的运作类似于ETF（交易所交易基金），但它不像ETF那样有赎回机制（即投资者可以要求用每一份额的ETF兑换对应的底层资产），在二级市场的出手也有12个月的锁定期，而且GBTC的一级市场申购只面向合格投资者（个人净资产需要在100万美元以上或是连续两年年收入超过20万美元），申购门槛投资额至少在5万美元以上。\n截至2020年12月，GBTC的总持仓量不到半年的时间增长了58.3%至近57万枚比特币，这表明在2020年下半年，大量的机构资金开始涌入比特币。进入2021年，GBTC的买货步伐还在加速，从1月初至2月中旬本文截稿，GBTC持有的比特币又增加了近8万枚至65万枚比特币。\n由于产品设计的问题，灰度像个只吃不吐的貔貅，持续不断地买入比特币，并且只能默默地买入并持有，此举已经给机构投资者带来了一定的示范效应。\n除了灰度，还有其他的机构不断涌入这个市场，包括专门为机构投资者服务的Galax Digital。该机构的创始人、CEO兼董事长Michael Novogratz是传统金融界的精英人物，曾任Fortress Investment Group LLC的合伙人兼总裁，在FIG之前曾任高盛合伙人，并在纽约联邦储备银行投资顾问委员会任职3年。Galax Digital专门为机构投资者买入加密货币，因此它的积极入场，也被解读为是机构加速入市的信号。\n此外，2020年10月8日，移动支付巨头Square也宣布投资5000万美元的比特币。2020年10月13日，管理规模超过100亿美元的Stone Ridge Holdings宣布，该公司购入1万多枚比特币，价值约1.14亿美元，以作为其资产储备策略的一部分。\n随着PayPal和灰度的市场效应不断扩大，越来越多的机构投资者增加了对加密货币的需求。最新的案例是2021年2月8日，特斯拉宣布，预计将会开始接受比特币作为支付形式，根据新政策，特斯拉总共投资了15亿美元比特币。特斯拉创办人马斯克甚至把头像换成了比特币。此消息一出，比特币短线迅速被拉升突破4万美元关口，日内涨幅高达11%，报43172美元，并创下历史新高。\n\n03\n监管态度明确令不确定性降低\n第三个驱动力是2020年全球监管态度的明确，这使得投资者对于比特币的后期发展的不确定性大大降低。基本上，2020年全球范围内的监管机构对比特币都出台了相应的措施或政策，对比特币和虚拟资产交易开始持更正面的态度，例如决定采用规范化的监管手段，而非一味拒绝或忽略其发展。\n对于比特币和其他加密货币的监管，是另一个独立的话题。笔者这里仅介绍一下大概背景。\n联合国反洗钱金融行动特别工作组（FATF）在2015年便提出针对虚拟资产进行规管。2019年2月，FATF要求成员国把反洗钱和反恐融资（AML/CTF）延伸至虚拟资产领域，并提出两个主要选项：\n（1）要么全面取消虚拟资产交易；\n（2）要么把虚拟资产纳入发牌监管。\n从目前美国、新加坡及中国香港的发展来看，各国政府应该是更倾向于把虚拟资产纳入合法发牌监管范畴，而不是一味拒绝。\n在新加坡，2020年12月10日，星展银行宣布推出“星展数字交易平台”（DBS Digital Exchange），内容包含数字资产的货币化（tokenisation）、交易和保管。通过这个平台，DBS利用区块链技术，提供包括加密货币等数字资产的货币化和次级市场交易，包括证券型代币发行、数字货币交易和数字保管服务。\nDBS宣布，将会为4种货币（新加坡币、美元、港币、日圆）和4种最成熟的加密货币（比特币、以太币、比特币现金、瑞波币）提供相互兑换服务。而上述服务均已获得新加坡金融管理局原则性核准。\n相比新加坡，香港的步伐慢了一些，但形势也在积极发展。同样也是在2020年，作为FATF的一员，中国香港特区明确提出，将虚拟资产纳入监管，并且在2020年11月3日推出一项全民咨询，就虚拟资产交易所是否需要持牌，向社会各界公开咨询意见。\n而在此前一年，香港证监会（SFC）其实已在2019年11月就虚拟资产交易活动发表《立场书》，容许虚拟资产交易平台自愿申请牌照，但此做法只适用于证券型虚拟资产交易服务的平台，非证券型虚拟资产交易服务的平台并不受此制度监管。\n因此，香港2020年开始的公共咨询，笔者认为是香港监管层表现出更明确的态度，即要把加密货币这类虚拟资产纳入合法的交易程序，而不是拒之门外。\n从长远来看，全球政府目前似乎也没有联手打压比特币的计划。截至2月18日，比特币市值逼近1万亿美元，尚未超过黄金市场（约10万亿美元），更是没法和传统的债券及股票市场相比。根据中金的一份报告，仅美国整体债券市场的存量规模已经超过50万亿美元。\n但考虑到比特币的理论数量有限，以及传统法币由于量宽而不断贬值，以及比特币特有的挖矿机制，谁也不敢说未来比特币的市值是否会超过其他各类的资产，届时比特币会被个别央行用于当作黄金的替代品，抑或是被各国联手扼杀，只有走一步看一步了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386552479,"gmtCreate":1613216869691,"gmtModify":1704879469825,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386552479","repostId":"2110020695","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386936900,"gmtCreate":1613124786200,"gmtModify":1704878617075,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386936900","repostId":"1140853678","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140853678","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613097200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140853678?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-12 10:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the \"Nayuki's Tea\" prospectus as sweet as tea?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140853678","media":"资本侦探","summary":"2014年的除夕，联想宣布29亿美元从谷歌手中买下摩托罗拉移动智能手机业务，京东商城递交IPO招股书，彼时行业一片沸腾。2021年的除夕，此前多次对上市传闻“不予置评”的奈雪的茶在香港交易所公布了招股","content":"<p>On New Year's Eve in 2014, Lenovo announced that it would buy Motorola's mobile smartphone business from Google for US $2.9 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The mall submitted the IPO prospectus, and the industry was boiling at that time. On New Year's Eve in 2021, Nayuki's tea, which has repeatedly \"not commented\" on listing rumors, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>The prospectus was published. However, this news of \"hitting the first stock of tea drinks\" did not make too many people stop and pay attention.</p><p>In the past Year of the Rat, new consumer companies can be said to have earned enough attention from the capital market-the market value of Pop Mart exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars on the first day of listing; Perfect Diary (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>) The market value exceeded US $12.2 billion on the first day of listing; Recently, it is reported that Genki Forest's latest valuation is approaching 30 billion yuan (the news comes from China Investment Network).</p><p>The iron must be hot while it is hot. This is the peak period of the valuation of the consumption track. How can there be a lack of \"new tea drinks\" at the forefront of the capital feast?</p><p>Up to now, Nayuki's tea has completed multiple rounds of financing. According to Bloomberg News, after the C round of financing at the beginning of this year, the valuation of Nayuki's tea is close to US $2 billion (about 13 billion yuan).</p><p>And Nayuki's teammates have also shown their strength to attract money-Heytea has gone through 4 rounds of financing, and has received a total of more than 500 million yuan in financing, and its post-investment valuation has also reached 16 billion yuan. There are many IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, Meituan's Dragon Ball Capital and other stars.</p><p>According to other data, in the whole year of 2020, there were a total of 18 financings for tea brands, with a total disclosed amount of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 700%, accounting for 36% of the total financing of the food/health products track that year.</p><p>Is the rise of new consumption and new tea drinks a light or a bubble? The prospectus of Nayuki's tea gives some answers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3bfbffa716c5697ad60c00750ddc3\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Net profit margin is only 0.2%, and single-store sales decline rapidly</p><p>Let's break down the data in the prospectus in detail:</p><p>According to the prospectus, the operating income of Nayuki's tea in 2018, 2019 and the first nine months of 2020 was 1.09 billion yuan, 2.5 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 130.2% and 20.8% respectively.</p><p>Among them, affected by the epidemic in 2020, the offline business was greatly affected during the epidemic, and the year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months showed a sharp slowdown trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac6494b0ccf84adaa20d74a3752a39b\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the case of rapid growth on the revenue side, the performance of Nayuki's tea on the profit side is much inferior.</p><p>Nayuki's tea's net losses under non-IFRS in 2018 and 2019 were 56.58 million and 11.735 million yuan respectively. Although the company achieved a net profit of 4.484 million yuan in 2020,<b>The overall net profit margin is only 0.2%, and the company's profitability is too thin</b>。</p><p>The main reason for the thin profit level is that,<b>The company's operating costs at the store level remain high. The most important costs include raw material costs, staff costs, rental and related store operating expenses, and depreciation costs of fixed assets</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e23e1a95c12e35b522adc18dc750f7\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of operating data, the number of Nayuki's tea stores as of September 30, 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 155, 327, and 422, respectively. Among them, compared with the previous reporting period, the stores on September 30, 2019 and 2020 were respectively The net increase was 172 and 95.</p><p>Although the number of Nayuki's tea stores is still expanding rapidly, it is obvious that the growth rate of its stores is showing a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b547d78007a8078a70615a53e34d85a4\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the number of stores continues to increase,<b>Nayuki's daily tea sales per store and average daily order volume per store have continued to decline</b>。</p><p>Its average daily sales of a single store from January to September in 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 30,700, 27,700, and 20,100 yuan respectively, showing a continuous downward trend.<b>Especially in 2020, the company's average single-store sales have declined rapidly</b>。</p><p>This is largely due to the decline in the number of single-store orders-as the number of tea stores in Nayuki increases, the density of stores gradually increases in core cities, and the number of single-store orders continues to be lowered. Due to the decline in single store turnover, the overall cost at the store level remains unchanged, which also leads to a continuous downward trend in store-level profit margins. Nayuki's tea's single-store profit margin in the first nine months of 2020 was only 12.6%, far lower than the 24.9% in 2018 and 25.3% in 2019.</p><p>The continuous decline in Nayuki's tea single store operating performance has also brought a certain degree of hidden dangers to the company's continued expansion.</p><p>As we all know, under the single-store model of the retail industry, the operating profit of a single store can only be increased when the average number of single-store orders and customer unit prices continue to grow and the operating costs of a single store remain stable. Only by increasing the profit of a single store can the cost of the middle office and back office be evenly shared to achieve the overall profitability of the company.</p><p>At this stage, Nayuki's tea has experienced a rapid decline in the operating efficiency of a single store, which will limit the company's overall expansion speed to a large extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0271a0414e05c24c3df508d37df668\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6a72d14dc792f3a74f325074a3f77c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6616761674d12e4b1a65023f3c8f5c2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"881\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where's the new?</p><p>Previously, Naixue released the \"2020 New Tea Drinks White Paper\" and mentioned that by the end of 2020, the total size of China's tea drinks market will reach 442 billion yuan, and the total size of China's coffee market will reach 215.5 billion yuan. The size of the tea drinks market will still be the size of the coffee market. More than 2 times the size. The market size of new tea drinks will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2020, and is expected to exceed 110 billion yuan by 2021.</p><p>However, no matter how big the market is, it is only paper data. Ruixing's lessons are still ringing in my ears. If you replace the word coffee with tea, will the outcome be very different?</p><p><b>Highly homogeneous products but insufficient standardization-this is a common problem in the new tea industry</b>。</p><p>On the one hand, products lack effective barriers, low thresholds, and formulas are easy to imitate, and the phenomenon of homogeneity is becoming more and more serious. On the other hand, the problem of \"standardization\", which is particularly valued by the consumer industry, is difficult to solve.</p><p>In terms of tea, for suppliers, selling tea with high unit price to high-end business people is enough to support themselves, and the processing and production of raw materials do not need large-scale and large-scale industrial production. The upstream system of China's tea industry has not been structured, so it cannot solve the downstream problems.</p><p>The production links other than tea are also difficult to stabilize. Almost all operations in the production process of new tea products have to be completed by people. Even if there are fructose machines, fruit slicing equipment, milk capping machines and other equipment in the new tea market, people still have the final say in the production process of products. \"How sweet a cup of tea is depends entirely on whether the clerk's hand with sugar shakes or not.\"</p><p>So, how does Nayuki's tea party break through?</p><p>At present, there are two main kinds of \"new\" new consumption:</p><p><b>One is the new consumer brands that have emerged with channel iteration, such as Perfect Diary, Huaxizi, etc.</b>。</p><p>Qian Kun, a partner of Wuyue Capital, once summarized three investment booms in the consumer industry in recent years:</p><p>2007-2008: PC Internet is a foregone conclusion, a large number of offline shopping malls are built, and a large number of consumer and catering brand investments are generated;</p><p>2012 ~ 2013: The pattern of e-commerce platform was formed, and the Amoy brand was favored by capital;</p><p>2016-2017: The unprecedented prosperity of social media drove the rapid growth of new consumer products and services.</p><p>Every consumer investment boom is at the stage when Internet platform companies are beginning to take shape. On the one hand, technology companies have fewer investment targets; on the other hand, Internet platform companies have begun to realize traffic. Many new brands and new services are born in the process of consumers' attention shifting. Consumer investment is to invest in those targets that can grow rapidly and form brand awareness in this process.</p><p>In short, there is no fundamental change in the products, but the channels are new, and the consumer brands that seize the newly emerging channels are new.</p><p><b>The other is the update of products, services, and experiences. New tea drinks obviously belong to this category</b>。</p><p>In the past, most of the milk tea was brewed with powder, without milk or tea, and the area of milk tea shops was relatively small, mostly 3 ~ 5 square meters; After that, the raw materials have been upgraded, and milk tea based on tea powder and tea residue has appeared, as well as milk-covered tea; Now the new tea raw materials are healthier and fresher, and the space in the store is more exquisite and comfortable.</p><p>At the beginning of this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>In an exclusive interview with Peng Xin, the founder of Naixue's tea, it can be seen that his breakthrough ideas are also focused on the latter.</p><p>In Peng Xin's view, the growth mainly comes from two aspects: \"First, we have created many customers for the category. For example, you will find that the main consumer group of new tea drinks is not the one who drank street milk tea shops five years ago. There are many more white-collar workers and business people; Second, we see that the entire category can actually be divided into three dimensions. In fact, the middle and head markets are actually increasing, and the tail product market of about 5 yuan or 10 yuan is shrinking. Whether it is the first-and second-tier market or the sinking market, they are paying more and more attention to quality and gradually moving towards high-end consumption. \"</p><p>In other words,<b>In the process of gaining new consumer groups through \"new\" tea drinks, and grabbing the low-end product market through high-end products, the existing market generated</b>。</p><p>The prospectus summarizes the growth strategy of Nayuki's tea into five points:</p><p>1. Consolidate our leading position in existing markets and expand our business scope in new markets; 2. Further digitize the overall operation to improve efficiency; 3. Strengthen supply chain capabilities; 4. Increase customer engagement to build lasting connections; 5. Launch new innovative popular products, expand product categories and sales channels to unlock the brand potential of Nayuki's tea. It is worth mentioning here that the first point clearly focuses on \"Naixue PRO\". Nayuki's tea plans to open about 300 and 350 Nayuki's tea shops in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in 2021 and 2022, respectively, of which about 70% will be planned as Nayuki PRO tea shops.</p><p>Naixue PRO is a store launched in November last year. It divides its product business model into four modules: coffee, tea, light baking, and snack retail. According to the relevant person in charge of Naixue's tea, unlike previous Naixue stores, which were mostly located in high-end business districts, Naixue PRO will intensively cultivate first-tier cities and enter business office areas and high-density communities.</p><p>But such an action seems to be contrary to the general trend-Heytea opens Xixiaocha, Ruixing opens a self-pickup store, and even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>They are all pushing the \"Coffee Express\" that can be picked up at the store. Will the value of the \"Third Space\" still be great in the future? Will this further reduce Naixue's floor efficiency?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a84022efed9ee9017222c3a4fc51c4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nayuki PRO Store Coffee Product Line Menu</p><p>There is actually a romantic love story behind Naixue's tea: the founder Peng Xin's online name is \"Naixue\". She claims to start from her own experience and use the grip size of her own hand to design a \"Naixue Cup\" that suits women's slender and easy-to-shake hands. When she had the idea of making tea, she sought partners in many ways and finally found Zhao Lin, who had been immersed in Shenzhen's catering industry for many years. We met in March and got engaged in May. Thanks to the joint efforts of Peng Xin and Zhao Lin, Naixue Tea was born.</p><p>Nowadays, when dreams shine into reality, when careers need capital, and when the cold data of the prospectus is in front of us, the story becomes more and more complicated.</p>","source":"lsy1585101920501","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the \"Nayuki's Tea\" prospectus as sweet as tea?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the \"Nayuki's Tea\" prospectus as sweet as tea?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">资本侦探</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-12 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On New Year's Eve in 2014, Lenovo announced that it would buy Motorola's mobile smartphone business from Google for US $2.9 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The mall submitted the IPO prospectus, and the industry was boiling at that time. On New Year's Eve in 2021, Nayuki's tea, which has repeatedly \"not commented\" on listing rumors, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>The prospectus was published. However, this news of \"hitting the first stock of tea drinks\" did not make too many people stop and pay attention.</p><p>In the past Year of the Rat, new consumer companies can be said to have earned enough attention from the capital market-the market value of Pop Mart exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars on the first day of listing; Perfect Diary (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>) The market value exceeded US $12.2 billion on the first day of listing; Recently, it is reported that Genki Forest's latest valuation is approaching 30 billion yuan (the news comes from China Investment Network).</p><p>The iron must be hot while it is hot. This is the peak period of the valuation of the consumption track. How can there be a lack of \"new tea drinks\" at the forefront of the capital feast?</p><p>Up to now, Nayuki's tea has completed multiple rounds of financing. According to Bloomberg News, after the C round of financing at the beginning of this year, the valuation of Nayuki's tea is close to US $2 billion (about 13 billion yuan).</p><p>And Nayuki's teammates have also shown their strength to attract money-Heytea has gone through 4 rounds of financing, and has received a total of more than 500 million yuan in financing, and its post-investment valuation has also reached 16 billion yuan. There are many IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, Meituan's Dragon Ball Capital and other stars.</p><p>According to other data, in the whole year of 2020, there were a total of 18 financings for tea brands, with a total disclosed amount of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 700%, accounting for 36% of the total financing of the food/health products track that year.</p><p>Is the rise of new consumption and new tea drinks a light or a bubble? The prospectus of Nayuki's tea gives some answers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3bfbffa716c5697ad60c00750ddc3\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Net profit margin is only 0.2%, and single-store sales decline rapidly</p><p>Let's break down the data in the prospectus in detail:</p><p>According to the prospectus, the operating income of Nayuki's tea in 2018, 2019 and the first nine months of 2020 was 1.09 billion yuan, 2.5 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 130.2% and 20.8% respectively.</p><p>Among them, affected by the epidemic in 2020, the offline business was greatly affected during the epidemic, and the year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months showed a sharp slowdown trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac6494b0ccf84adaa20d74a3752a39b\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the case of rapid growth on the revenue side, the performance of Nayuki's tea on the profit side is much inferior.</p><p>Nayuki's tea's net losses under non-IFRS in 2018 and 2019 were 56.58 million and 11.735 million yuan respectively. Although the company achieved a net profit of 4.484 million yuan in 2020,<b>The overall net profit margin is only 0.2%, and the company's profitability is too thin</b>。</p><p>The main reason for the thin profit level is that,<b>The company's operating costs at the store level remain high. The most important costs include raw material costs, staff costs, rental and related store operating expenses, and depreciation costs of fixed assets</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e23e1a95c12e35b522adc18dc750f7\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of operating data, the number of Nayuki's tea stores as of September 30, 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 155, 327, and 422, respectively. Among them, compared with the previous reporting period, the stores on September 30, 2019 and 2020 were respectively The net increase was 172 and 95.</p><p>Although the number of Nayuki's tea stores is still expanding rapidly, it is obvious that the growth rate of its stores is showing a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b547d78007a8078a70615a53e34d85a4\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the number of stores continues to increase,<b>Nayuki's daily tea sales per store and average daily order volume per store have continued to decline</b>。</p><p>Its average daily sales of a single store from January to September in 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 30,700, 27,700, and 20,100 yuan respectively, showing a continuous downward trend.<b>Especially in 2020, the company's average single-store sales have declined rapidly</b>。</p><p>This is largely due to the decline in the number of single-store orders-as the number of tea stores in Nayuki increases, the density of stores gradually increases in core cities, and the number of single-store orders continues to be lowered. Due to the decline in single store turnover, the overall cost at the store level remains unchanged, which also leads to a continuous downward trend in store-level profit margins. Nayuki's tea's single-store profit margin in the first nine months of 2020 was only 12.6%, far lower than the 24.9% in 2018 and 25.3% in 2019.</p><p>The continuous decline in Nayuki's tea single store operating performance has also brought a certain degree of hidden dangers to the company's continued expansion.</p><p>As we all know, under the single-store model of the retail industry, the operating profit of a single store can only be increased when the average number of single-store orders and customer unit prices continue to grow and the operating costs of a single store remain stable. Only by increasing the profit of a single store can the cost of the middle office and back office be evenly shared to achieve the overall profitability of the company.</p><p>At this stage, Nayuki's tea has experienced a rapid decline in the operating efficiency of a single store, which will limit the company's overall expansion speed to a large extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0271a0414e05c24c3df508d37df668\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6a72d14dc792f3a74f325074a3f77c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6616761674d12e4b1a65023f3c8f5c2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"881\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where's the new?</p><p>Previously, Naixue released the \"2020 New Tea Drinks White Paper\" and mentioned that by the end of 2020, the total size of China's tea drinks market will reach 442 billion yuan, and the total size of China's coffee market will reach 215.5 billion yuan. The size of the tea drinks market will still be the size of the coffee market. More than 2 times the size. The market size of new tea drinks will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2020, and is expected to exceed 110 billion yuan by 2021.</p><p>However, no matter how big the market is, it is only paper data. Ruixing's lessons are still ringing in my ears. If you replace the word coffee with tea, will the outcome be very different?</p><p><b>Highly homogeneous products but insufficient standardization-this is a common problem in the new tea industry</b>。</p><p>On the one hand, products lack effective barriers, low thresholds, and formulas are easy to imitate, and the phenomenon of homogeneity is becoming more and more serious. On the other hand, the problem of \"standardization\", which is particularly valued by the consumer industry, is difficult to solve.</p><p>In terms of tea, for suppliers, selling tea with high unit price to high-end business people is enough to support themselves, and the processing and production of raw materials do not need large-scale and large-scale industrial production. The upstream system of China's tea industry has not been structured, so it cannot solve the downstream problems.</p><p>The production links other than tea are also difficult to stabilize. Almost all operations in the production process of new tea products have to be completed by people. Even if there are fructose machines, fruit slicing equipment, milk capping machines and other equipment in the new tea market, people still have the final say in the production process of products. \"How sweet a cup of tea is depends entirely on whether the clerk's hand with sugar shakes or not.\"</p><p>So, how does Nayuki's tea party break through?</p><p>At present, there are two main kinds of \"new\" new consumption:</p><p><b>One is the new consumer brands that have emerged with channel iteration, such as Perfect Diary, Huaxizi, etc.</b>。</p><p>Qian Kun, a partner of Wuyue Capital, once summarized three investment booms in the consumer industry in recent years:</p><p>2007-2008: PC Internet is a foregone conclusion, a large number of offline shopping malls are built, and a large number of consumer and catering brand investments are generated;</p><p>2012 ~ 2013: The pattern of e-commerce platform was formed, and the Amoy brand was favored by capital;</p><p>2016-2017: The unprecedented prosperity of social media drove the rapid growth of new consumer products and services.</p><p>Every consumer investment boom is at the stage when Internet platform companies are beginning to take shape. On the one hand, technology companies have fewer investment targets; on the other hand, Internet platform companies have begun to realize traffic. Many new brands and new services are born in the process of consumers' attention shifting. Consumer investment is to invest in those targets that can grow rapidly and form brand awareness in this process.</p><p>In short, there is no fundamental change in the products, but the channels are new, and the consumer brands that seize the newly emerging channels are new.</p><p><b>The other is the update of products, services, and experiences. New tea drinks obviously belong to this category</b>。</p><p>In the past, most of the milk tea was brewed with powder, without milk or tea, and the area of milk tea shops was relatively small, mostly 3 ~ 5 square meters; After that, the raw materials have been upgraded, and milk tea based on tea powder and tea residue has appeared, as well as milk-covered tea; Now the new tea raw materials are healthier and fresher, and the space in the store is more exquisite and comfortable.</p><p>At the beginning of this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>In an exclusive interview with Peng Xin, the founder of Naixue's tea, it can be seen that his breakthrough ideas are also focused on the latter.</p><p>In Peng Xin's view, the growth mainly comes from two aspects: \"First, we have created many customers for the category. For example, you will find that the main consumer group of new tea drinks is not the one who drank street milk tea shops five years ago. There are many more white-collar workers and business people; Second, we see that the entire category can actually be divided into three dimensions. In fact, the middle and head markets are actually increasing, and the tail product market of about 5 yuan or 10 yuan is shrinking. Whether it is the first-and second-tier market or the sinking market, they are paying more and more attention to quality and gradually moving towards high-end consumption. \"</p><p>In other words,<b>In the process of gaining new consumer groups through \"new\" tea drinks, and grabbing the low-end product market through high-end products, the existing market generated</b>。</p><p>The prospectus summarizes the growth strategy of Nayuki's tea into five points:</p><p>1. Consolidate our leading position in existing markets and expand our business scope in new markets; 2. Further digitize the overall operation to improve efficiency; 3. Strengthen supply chain capabilities; 4. Increase customer engagement to build lasting connections; 5. Launch new innovative popular products, expand product categories and sales channels to unlock the brand potential of Nayuki's tea. It is worth mentioning here that the first point clearly focuses on \"Naixue PRO\". Nayuki's tea plans to open about 300 and 350 Nayuki's tea shops in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in 2021 and 2022, respectively, of which about 70% will be planned as Nayuki PRO tea shops.</p><p>Naixue PRO is a store launched in November last year. It divides its product business model into four modules: coffee, tea, light baking, and snack retail. According to the relevant person in charge of Naixue's tea, unlike previous Naixue stores, which were mostly located in high-end business districts, Naixue PRO will intensively cultivate first-tier cities and enter business office areas and high-density communities.</p><p>But such an action seems to be contrary to the general trend-Heytea opens Xixiaocha, Ruixing opens a self-pickup store, and even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>They are all pushing the \"Coffee Express\" that can be picked up at the store. Will the value of the \"Third Space\" still be great in the future? Will this further reduce Naixue's floor efficiency?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a84022efed9ee9017222c3a4fc51c4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nayuki PRO Store Coffee Product Line Menu</p><p>There is actually a romantic love story behind Naixue's tea: the founder Peng Xin's online name is \"Naixue\". She claims to start from her own experience and use the grip size of her own hand to design a \"Naixue Cup\" that suits women's slender and easy-to-shake hands. When she had the idea of making tea, she sought partners in many ways and finally found Zhao Lin, who had been immersed in Shenzhen's catering industry for many years. We met in March and got engaged in May. Thanks to the joint efforts of Peng Xin and Zhao Lin, Naixue Tea was born.</p><p>Nowadays, when dreams shine into reality, when careers need capital, and when the cold data of the prospectus is in front of us, the story becomes more and more complicated.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8bBDHihTV8UK_V5ps-5Zpg\">资本侦探</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ffbe5a8ebba137bf409ca349490c9d3","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8bBDHihTV8UK_V5ps-5Zpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140853678","content_text":"2014年的除夕，联想宣布29亿美元从谷歌手中买下摩托罗拉移动智能手机业务，京东商城递交IPO招股书，彼时行业一片沸腾。2021年的除夕，此前多次对上市传闻“不予置评”的奈雪的茶在香港交易所公布了招股书。不过这一则“冲击茶饮第一股”的消息并没有让太多人驻足留意。在刚刚过去的鼠年里，新消费公司可谓赚足了资本市场的眼球——泡泡玛特上市首日突破千亿港元市值；完美日记（逸仙电商）上市首日市值突破122亿美元；最近还有消息称元气森林最新估值逼近300亿元（消息源自投中网）。打铁须趁热，这正是消费赛道估值的高峰期，资本盛宴里怎么能缺少风口浪尖的“新茶饮”？截至目前，奈雪的茶已完成多轮融资，据彭博社消息，今年年初的C轮融资后，奈雪的茶估值接近20亿美元(约130亿人民币)。而奈雪的茶的队友们也展现出了吸金的实力——喜茶经历4轮融资，累计获得融资超过5亿元人民币，投后估值也到了160亿元，背后不乏IDG资本、红杉资本、高瓴资本、美团旗下龙珠资本等明星。另据资料显示，2020年全年，茶饮品牌一共有18起融资，披露总金额达17.43亿元人民币，同比增长约700％，占到当年食品/保健品赛道融资总额的36％。新消费、新茶饮的崛起究竟是光芒还是泡沫？奈雪的茶这份招股书给出了一些答案。净利润率仅0.2%，单店销售额快速下降来细拆一下招股书的数据：招股书显示，奈雪的茶在2018年、2019年及2020年前9个月营业收入分别为10.9亿、25亿以及21.1亿元人民币，同比增速分别为130.2%和20.8%。其中2020年受疫情影响，线下业务在疫情期间受到较大影响，前9个月营收同比增长呈现大幅放缓趋势。在收入端呈现高速增长的情况下，奈雪的茶在盈利端的表现则要逊色不少。奈雪的茶2018年、2019年非国际财务报告准则下净亏损分别为5658万和1173.5万元，尽管在2020年公司取得净利润448.4万元，但整体净利润率仅为0.2%，公司盈利水平过于单薄。导致利润水平单薄的主要原因在于，公司门店层面经营成本的居高不下导致。其中最主要的成本包含原材料成本、员工成本、租金及相关门店经营开支以及固定资产折旧成本等。经营数据方面，奈雪的茶截止2018年、2019年、2020年9月30日门店数量分别为155、327、422家，其中2019年及2020年9月30日相比较上一报告期门店分别净增加172家和95家。尽管奈雪的茶目前门店数量仍处于快速扩张中，但明显看出其门店增速呈现下降趋势。在门店数量持续增加的情况下，奈雪的茶单店日销售额以及单店日均订单量均出现持续下降趋势。其2018年、2019年、2020年1月～9月单店日均销售额分别为3.07万、2.77万和2.01万元，呈现持续下降趋势，特别是在2020年，公司平均单店销售额出现快速下降。这在很大程度上是由于单店订单数下降导致——随着奈雪的茶门店数量的增加，门店密度在核心城市逐渐增加，单店订单数被持续拉低。而由于单店营业额的下降，但门店层面整体成本保持不变，也导致门店层面利润率呈现持续下降趋势。奈雪的茶在2020年前9个月单店利润率仅为12.6%，远低于2018年的24.9%和2019年的25.3%。奈雪的茶单店层面经营业绩的持续下降也为公司的持续扩张带来一定程度的隐患。众所周知，在零售行业单店模型下，只有在平均单店订单数及客单价持续增长，单店经营成本保持稳定的情况下，单店的经营利润才能提升。而单店利润的提升，才能最终平摊掉中台及后台的成本实现公司整体盈利。而奈雪的茶在现阶段已经出现单店经营效率的快速下降，这在很大程度上会限制公司整体的扩张速度。新在哪里？此前奈雪发布了《2020新式茶饮白皮书》中提到，2020年底中国茶饮市场总规模将达到4420亿元，中国咖啡市场总规模将达到2155亿元，茶饮市场规模仍将是咖啡市场规模的2倍以上。而新式茶饮市场规模在2020年将超过1000亿元，预计到2021年会突破1100亿。然而市场再大也只是纸面数据，瑞幸的教训言犹在耳，把咖啡二字替换成茶饮，结局会大不相同吗？产品高度同质化却标准化不足——这是新茶饮行业的通病。一方面，产品缺乏有效壁垒、门槛低、且配方易被模仿，同质化现象越来越严重。另一方面，消费行业尤为看重的“标品化”问题难以解决。由于在茶叶方面，对供应商而言，向高端商务人士散卖高客单价的茶叶足以养活自己，原材料加工、生产并不必大面积、大规模的工业化生产。中国茶饮行业的上游的体系一直没有架构起来，因此也解决不了下游的问题。茶叶之外的制作环节也难以稳定。新茶饮产品制作过程中几乎所有操作都要靠人来完成。新茶饮市场即便有了果糖机、水果切片设备、奶盖机等设备，产品的制作过程还是人说了算。“一杯茶有多甜，完全取决于店员放糖的手抖不抖。”那么，奈雪的茶会如何突围呢？目前看来，新消费的“新”主要有两种：一种是伴随着渠道迭代而崛起的新消费品牌，比如完美日记、花西子等。五岳资本合伙人钱坤曾总结过这些年消费行业的三次投资热潮：2007年～2008年：PC互联网成定局，线下购物中心大量兴建，大量消费和餐饮品牌的投资产生；2012年～2013年：电商平台格局形成，淘品牌获得资本的青睐；2016年～2017年：社交媒体空前繁荣，带动新型消费产品和服务的快速增长。每一次消费投资热潮都是在互联网平台公司初具规模的阶段，一方面科技公司投资标的变少，另一方面互联网平台公司开始流量变现，消费者注意力转移的过程中诞生了许多新品牌和新服务，消费投资就是在这个过程中投资那些能够快速增长并形成品牌认知的标的。简言之，产品没有根本性的变化，但渠道新了，抓住新崛起渠道的消费品牌也就新了。另一种则是产品、服务、体验的更新，新茶饮显然属于这一范畴。过去的奶茶大多数粉末冲化的，不含奶也不含茶，奶茶店的面积也比较小，大部分是3平方米～5平方米；之后原料有了升级，出现了以茶末、茶渣为基底制作的奶茶，也有了奶盖茶；而现在的新式茶饮原料更健康新鲜，店内空间也更加精美舒适。在今年年初36氪对奈雪的茶创始人彭心的专访中可以看到其突围思路也是集中在后者。在彭心看来，增长主要来自两个方面：“第一，我们为品类创造了很多客户，比如你会发现新式茶饮的主要的消费客群并不是5年前喝街边奶茶店的那一群客人，多了很多白领、商务人士；第二，我们看到其实目前整个的品类可以分为大概的三个维度，其实中部和头部这两块市场其实都是在增大的，尾部这种5块、10块左右的产品市场是在缩减的。不管是一二线市场还是下沉市场，都是越来越看重品质的，逐渐往高端消费去走。”也就是说，通过“新”茶饮去收获新的消费群体，以及通过高端产品，抢夺低端产品市场的过程中，所产生的存量市场。招股书中将奈雪的茶的增长策略归纳为五点：1. 巩固在现有市场的领导地位及扩大在新市场的业务范围；2. 进一步数字化整体运营以提高效率；3. 加强供应链能力；4. 提高顾客参与度以建立持久的联系；5. 新推出创新性的热门产品、扩展产品种类及销售渠道以释放奈雪的茶的品牌潜力。这里值得一提的是第一点明确落脚在了“奈雪PRO”上。奈雪的茶计划2021年、2022年主要在一线城市及新一线城市分别开设约300间、350间奈雪的茶茶饮店，其中约70%将规划为奈雪PRO茶饮店。奈雪PRO是其去年11月推出的店型，将产品经营模式分为咖啡、茶饮、轻烘焙、零食零售四大模块。据奈雪的茶相关负责人介绍，不同于此前奈雪门店多定位在高端商圈，奈雪PRO将精耕一线城市，进驻商务办公区、高密度社区。但这样的动作似乎和大趋势相悖——喜茶开喜小茶、瑞幸开自提店，连星巴克都在强推到店即取的“啡快”，“第三空间”的价值在未来还大吗？这是否会进一步降低奈雪的坪效？奈雪PRO店咖啡产品线菜单奈雪的茶背后其实有一段浪漫的爱情故事：创始人彭心的网名叫“奈雪”，她声称从自身体验出发，以自己手的握度尺寸打样，设计出符合女性纤细易握手感的“奈雪杯”。当她有了做茶的念头后，多方寻求合作者，终于找到了在深圳餐饮界浸淫多年的赵林。3月相识，5月订婚，在彭心和赵林的共同努力下，奈雪の茶诞生了。如今，当梦想照进现实，当事业需要资本，当招股书冰冷的数据摆在眼前，故事也就越来越复杂了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388018605,"gmtCreate":1613001370207,"gmtModify":1704877201018,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388018605","repostId":"1168524354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380852650,"gmtCreate":1612534968170,"gmtModify":1704872516793,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"250?","listText":"250?","text":"250?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380852650","repostId":"1178591238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178591238","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612528765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178591238?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-05 20:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks set off a \"short squeeze storm\", Liulishuo soared 250%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178591238","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月5日（周五），美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨。美国参议院以51-50票的表决结果，通过了总统拜登1.9万亿美元疫情救济计划的一个预算蓝图，此前两党经过近15小时的苦战进行修订。中概股$流利说$盘前暴涨超250%，昨日该股收涨33.3%。近一个月内，流利说并未发布任何事件、财报等公告。$极光$盘前大涨125%，近日公司宣布与快手在广告商业化领域达成合作。截至发稿，国际黄金期货价格报1803.25美元/盎司，涨幅0.67%。","content":"<p>On February 5 (Friday), the three major U.S. stock index futures collectively rose during the pre-market session. The U.S. Senate voted 51-50 to pass a budget blueprint for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan after nearly 15 hours of bitter bipartisan struggle to revise it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd55cc1b273b1f792446d918bdf2bb93\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>[Pre-market market]</b></p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>It soared more than 250% before the market, and the stock closed up 33.3% yesterday. In the past month, Liulishuo has not released any events, financial reports and other announcements. According to the regulations of the New York Stock Exchange, Liulishuo does not need to explain to investors after this surge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec6eb429ae0a55714aaf55f043f5b2b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>It rose 125% before the market. Recently, the company announced that it has reached a cooperation with Kuaishou in the field of advertising commercialization.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>It rose more than 24% before the market. Litchi has increased by 339% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>It rose 34% before the market and rose more than 55% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>The short-term rise before the market, once rose by more than 22%, and now it has fallen back to 14%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>There was a change before the market, and it is now up 22.2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose 3.8% before the market. According to media reports on Friday citing people familiar with the matter, Tencent Music has been finalized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The leading investment bank is promoting the listing in Hong Kong, and plans to complete the listing within the year, with a raising target of US $5 billion. More banks may join the underwriting team in the future, and the listing time may also change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.25% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose 0.22% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose 0.87% before the market.</p><p><b>Important US stocks</b></p><p>Retail investors' group concept stocks generally rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up 2.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Up 1.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Up 0.41%. Brokerage Robinhood had previously removed temporary restrictions on stock and options positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNY\">Sanofi</a>It rose 2.5% before the market, and turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, achieving a net profit of 1.09 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Up 0.94% premarket, oilfield services companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBLX\">Noble Midstream</a>It rose more than 6% before the market. Chevron offered to buy Noble Midstream for $12.47 per share.</p><p>Special purpose acquisition company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DCRB\">Decarbonization Plus</a>It rose 19.36% before the market. It is reported that Hyzon, an American hydrogen fuel vehicle company, has agreed to merge and go public with it.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>It fell 6.88% before the market, and the loss situation in the fourth quarter was worse than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity</a>It fell 14% before the market. The company's full-year loss situation was worse than expected, and the company warned in its earnings report that changes in Apple's IDFA policy would affect the way mobile game developers acquire new customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>It rose more than 10% before the market, turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the number of monthly active users increased by 11% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>It rose more than 8% before the market, net profit in the fourth quarter increased by 46% year-on-year, and the number of monthly active users was nearly 400 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>It rose more than 3% before the market, and its full-year net profit far exceeded market expectations. Remdesivir sales reached US $1.938 billion.</p><p><b>[Commodities]</b></p><p>◆ International oil prices rose. Crude oil markets were buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. commodity orders in December, signaling a strengthening manufacturing sector and hopes that lawmakers will quickly approve President Biden's $1.9 trillion Novel Coronavirus aid package.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $56.80/barrel, an increase of 1.01%; Brent crude oil was at $59.55 a barrel, an increase of 0.93%.</p><p>◆ Gold and silver prices rebounded. Investors are assessing the impact of the U.S. economic recovery, vaccine campaign and safe-haven demand.</p><p>As of press time, the international gold futures price was at US $1,803.25 per ounce, an increase of 0.67%. Silver futures prices were at $26.585, an increase of 1.34%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks set off a \"short squeeze storm\", Liulishuo soared 250%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Chinese concept stocks set off a \"short squeeze storm\", Liulishuo soared 250%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-05 20:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On February 5 (Friday), the three major U.S. stock index futures collectively rose during the pre-market session. The U.S. Senate voted 51-50 to pass a budget blueprint for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan after nearly 15 hours of bitter bipartisan struggle to revise it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd55cc1b273b1f792446d918bdf2bb93\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>[Pre-market market]</b></p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>It soared more than 250% before the market, and the stock closed up 33.3% yesterday. In the past month, Liulishuo has not released any events, financial reports and other announcements. According to the regulations of the New York Stock Exchange, Liulishuo does not need to explain to investors after this surge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec6eb429ae0a55714aaf55f043f5b2b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>It rose 125% before the market. Recently, the company announced that it has reached a cooperation with Kuaishou in the field of advertising commercialization.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>It rose more than 24% before the market. Litchi has increased by 339% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>It rose 34% before the market and rose more than 55% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>The short-term rise before the market, once rose by more than 22%, and now it has fallen back to 14%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>There was a change before the market, and it is now up 22.2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose 3.8% before the market. According to media reports on Friday citing people familiar with the matter, Tencent Music has been finalized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The leading investment bank is promoting the listing in Hong Kong, and plans to complete the listing within the year, with a raising target of US $5 billion. More banks may join the underwriting team in the future, and the listing time may also change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.25% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose 0.22% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose 0.87% before the market.</p><p><b>Important US stocks</b></p><p>Retail investors' group concept stocks generally rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up 2.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Up 1.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Up 0.41%. Brokerage Robinhood had previously removed temporary restrictions on stock and options positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNY\">Sanofi</a>It rose 2.5% before the market, and turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, achieving a net profit of 1.09 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Up 0.94% premarket, oilfield services companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBLX\">Noble Midstream</a>It rose more than 6% before the market. Chevron offered to buy Noble Midstream for $12.47 per share.</p><p>Special purpose acquisition company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DCRB\">Decarbonization Plus</a>It rose 19.36% before the market. It is reported that Hyzon, an American hydrogen fuel vehicle company, has agreed to merge and go public with it.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>It fell 6.88% before the market, and the loss situation in the fourth quarter was worse than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity</a>It fell 14% before the market. The company's full-year loss situation was worse than expected, and the company warned in its earnings report that changes in Apple's IDFA policy would affect the way mobile game developers acquire new customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>It rose more than 10% before the market, turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the number of monthly active users increased by 11% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>It rose more than 8% before the market, net profit in the fourth quarter increased by 46% year-on-year, and the number of monthly active users was nearly 400 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>It rose more than 3% before the market, and its full-year net profit far exceeded market expectations. Remdesivir sales reached US $1.938 billion.</p><p><b>[Commodities]</b></p><p>◆ International oil prices rose. Crude oil markets were buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. commodity orders in December, signaling a strengthening manufacturing sector and hopes that lawmakers will quickly approve President Biden's $1.9 trillion Novel Coronavirus aid package.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $56.80/barrel, an increase of 1.01%; Brent crude oil was at $59.55 a barrel, an increase of 0.93%.</p><p>◆ Gold and silver prices rebounded. Investors are assessing the impact of the U.S. economic recovery, vaccine campaign and safe-haven demand.</p><p>As of press time, the international gold futures price was at US $1,803.25 per ounce, an increase of 0.67%. Silver futures prices were at $26.585, an increase of 1.34%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178591238","content_text":"2月5日（周五），美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨。美国参议院以51-50票的表决结果，通过了总统拜登1.9万亿美元疫情救济计划的一个预算蓝图，此前两党经过近15小时的苦战进行修订。【盘前行情】热门中概股中概股流利说盘前暴涨超250%，昨日该股收涨33.3%。近一个月内，流利说并未发布任何事件、财报等公告。根据纽交所规定，此次暴涨后流利说也无需向投资者解释说明。极光盘前大涨125%，近日公司宣布与快手在广告商业化领域达成合作。荔枝盘前涨超24%。荔枝本周涨幅已达339%；猎豹移动盘前涨34%，本周涨超55%；途牛盘前短线拉升，一度涨超22%，现回落至14%；36氪盘前异动，现涨22.2%。腾讯音乐盘前涨3.8%。据媒体周五援引知情人士报道，腾讯音乐已经敲定摩根大通、摩根士丹利为首的投行推进赴港上市事宜，计划在年内完成上市，募集目标为50亿美元。后续可能会有更多的银行加入承销团队，上市时间也有可能发生变化。阿里巴巴盘前跌0.25%，拼多多盘前涨0.22%，京东盘前涨0.87%。重要美股散户抱团概念股盘前普涨，游戏驿站涨2.8%，AMC院线涨2.68%，高斯电子涨1.12%，黑莓涨0.41%。此前券商商Robinhood已移除了对股票及期权头寸的临时限制。赛诺菲盘前涨2.5%，第四季度同比扭亏为盈，实现净利润10.9亿欧元。雪佛龙盘前涨0.94%，油田服务公司Noble Midstream盘前涨超6%。雪佛龙提出以每股12.47美元的价格收购Noble Midstream。特殊目的收购公司Decarbonization Plus盘前涨19.36%，据悉美国氢燃料汽车公司Hyzon据悉同意与其进行合并上市。Snap盘前跌6.88%，第四季度亏损状况差于市场预期。Unity盘前跌14%。公司全年亏损状况差于预期，公司在财报中警告苹果IDFA政策的变化将影响手机游戏开发商获得新客户的方式。Pinterest盘前涨超10%，第四季度同比扭亏为盈，月活跃用户数同比增加11%。动视暴雪盘前涨超8%，第四季度净利润同比增加46%，月活跃用户数近4亿。吉利德科学盘前涨超3%，全年净利润远超市场预期，瑞德西韦销售额达19.38亿美元。【大宗商品】◆国际油价上涨。原油市场受到了12月强于预期的美国商品订单的鼓舞，表明制造业走强，并希望议员们迅速批准拜登总统提出的1.9万亿美元的新冠病毒援助计划。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报56.80美元/桶，涨幅1.01%；布伦特原油报59.55美元每桶，涨幅0.93%。◆黄金、白银价格反弹。投资者正在评估美国经济复苏、疫苗行动和避险需求的影响。截至发稿，国际黄金期货价格报1803.25美元/盎司，涨幅0.67%。白银期货价格报26.585美元，涨幅1.34%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAIX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315650715,"gmtCreate":1612247318737,"gmtModify":1704868669570,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315650715","repostId":"312181831","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":312181831,"gmtCreate":1612065732223,"gmtModify":1704867096744,"author":{"id":"3559801585445898","authorId":"3559801585445898","name":"Brain樣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a768ddb092ce6f32e0feb20423507722","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559801585445898","idStr":"3559801585445898"},"themes":[],"title":"你可能不知道的大衆汽車軋空慘案","htmlText":"2008年11月20號早上8點，我邊吃早餐邊看CNN轉播美國汽車業三巨頭要求紓困的聽證會。爲了能在美國7000億美元的救市計劃中分到最後一杯羹，通用、福特、克萊斯勒的三位CEO專程趕到國會哭窮，因爲這三大汽車公司當時正瀕臨倒閉的邊緣。其實這筆本來就少得可憐的紓困金早已所剩無幾，其中有一半要留給下任的奧巴馬，而本屆可用的一半中，已經大部分被用來紓困銀行業，剩下的最後一點兒大家都想要。可誰也沒想到，三大汽車公司居然在這個時候跳出來伸手討錢。這點兒錢救助他們三家中的任何一家都還遠遠不夠，真要全給了他們，其他行業還想雨露均沾嗎？由此你可以想象，美國社會對此事的觀感有多差。所以，當有議員冒壞水兒，問這三位CEO有誰不是坐私人飛機來華盛頓時，估計所有的觀衆都跟我一樣覺得特解氣，因爲這三位仁兄竟無一人舉手，他們當即在國會殿堂上被譏諷爲“世界上最富裕的乞丐”。看着這三位曾經那麼不可一世的CEO，如今卻要爲“手背朝下”而飽受羞辱，不知怎的，那一刻讓我想起了他們的歐洲同行保時捷。專做跑車的保時捷，若論企業規模，只配做美國三大品牌的小老弟。可論起撈錢本領和口袋深度，那它絕對是大哥大。單在2007年，保時捷的純利就高達64億歐元，照此時通用與福特的市值，這筆錢足以把兩家公司一起買下來。實際上，攥着大把現金的保時捷還真是想收購，只不過它的目標可不是美國同行，而是德國大衆。要說保時捷打算收購大衆，那也是由來已久，地球兒人都知道，這本無陰謀可言，可最後它又是如何演變成一場舉世關注的大陰謀呢？本文就來說說這件事兒。由於保時捷是上市公司，收購舉動必須公告，所以當它在2005年9月26日正式對外公佈要收購大衆時，保時捷未來將會大舉買入大衆股票，自然也就盡人皆知了。然而，這種盡人皆知並未造成市場上跟風買股、搭車賺錢，反倒招致大規模的反向做空，從而造成了一場針對大衆股價的多空對做。保時捷當然是站在多方，而空方則是","listText":"2008年11月20號早上8點，我邊吃早餐邊看CNN轉播美國汽車業三巨頭要求紓困的聽證會。爲了能在美國7000億美元的救市計劃中分到最後一杯羹，通用、福特、克萊斯勒的三位CEO專程趕到國會哭窮，因爲這三大汽車公司當時正瀕臨倒閉的邊緣。其實這筆本來就少得可憐的紓困金早已所剩無幾，其中有一半要留給下任的奧巴馬，而本屆可用的一半中，已經大部分被用來紓困銀行業，剩下的最後一點兒大家都想要。可誰也沒想到，三大汽車公司居然在這個時候跳出來伸手討錢。這點兒錢救助他們三家中的任何一家都還遠遠不夠，真要全給了他們，其他行業還想雨露均沾嗎？由此你可以想象，美國社會對此事的觀感有多差。所以，當有議員冒壞水兒，問這三位CEO有誰不是坐私人飛機來華盛頓時，估計所有的觀衆都跟我一樣覺得特解氣，因爲這三位仁兄竟無一人舉手，他們當即在國會殿堂上被譏諷爲“世界上最富裕的乞丐”。看着這三位曾經那麼不可一世的CEO，如今卻要爲“手背朝下”而飽受羞辱，不知怎的，那一刻讓我想起了他們的歐洲同行保時捷。專做跑車的保時捷，若論企業規模，只配做美國三大品牌的小老弟。可論起撈錢本領和口袋深度，那它絕對是大哥大。單在2007年，保時捷的純利就高達64億歐元，照此時通用與福特的市值，這筆錢足以把兩家公司一起買下來。實際上，攥着大把現金的保時捷還真是想收購，只不過它的目標可不是美國同行，而是德國大衆。要說保時捷打算收購大衆，那也是由來已久，地球兒人都知道，這本無陰謀可言，可最後它又是如何演變成一場舉世關注的大陰謀呢？本文就來說說這件事兒。由於保時捷是上市公司，收購舉動必須公告，所以當它在2005年9月26日正式對外公佈要收購大衆時，保時捷未來將會大舉買入大衆股票，自然也就盡人皆知了。然而，這種盡人皆知並未造成市場上跟風買股、搭車賺錢，反倒招致大規模的反向做空，從而造成了一場針對大衆股價的多空對做。保時捷當然是站在多方，而空方則是","text":"2008年11月20號早上8點，我邊吃早餐邊看CNN轉播美國汽車業三巨頭要求紓困的聽證會。爲了能在美國7000億美元的救市計劃中分到最後一杯羹，通用、福特、克萊斯勒的三位CEO專程趕到國會哭窮，因爲這三大汽車公司當時正瀕臨倒閉的邊緣。其實這筆本來就少得可憐的紓困金早已所剩無幾，其中有一半要留給下任的奧巴馬，而本屆可用的一半中，已經大部分被用來紓困銀行業，剩下的最後一點兒大家都想要。可誰也沒想到，三大汽車公司居然在這個時候跳出來伸手討錢。這點兒錢救助他們三家中的任何一家都還遠遠不夠，真要全給了他們，其他行業還想雨露均沾嗎？由此你可以想象，美國社會對此事的觀感有多差。所以，當有議員冒壞水兒，問這三位CEO有誰不是坐私人飛機來華盛頓時，估計所有的觀衆都跟我一樣覺得特解氣，因爲這三位仁兄竟無一人舉手，他們當即在國會殿堂上被譏諷爲“世界上最富裕的乞丐”。看着這三位曾經那麼不可一世的CEO，如今卻要爲“手背朝下”而飽受羞辱，不知怎的，那一刻讓我想起了他們的歐洲同行保時捷。專做跑車的保時捷，若論企業規模，只配做美國三大品牌的小老弟。可論起撈錢本領和口袋深度，那它絕對是大哥大。單在2007年，保時捷的純利就高達64億歐元，照此時通用與福特的市值，這筆錢足以把兩家公司一起買下來。實際上，攥着大把現金的保時捷還真是想收購，只不過它的目標可不是美國同行，而是德國大衆。要說保時捷打算收購大衆，那也是由來已久，地球兒人都知道，這本無陰謀可言，可最後它又是如何演變成一場舉世關注的大陰謀呢？本文就來說說這件事兒。由於保時捷是上市公司，收購舉動必須公告，所以當它在2005年9月26日正式對外公佈要收購大衆時，保時捷未來將會大舉買入大衆股票，自然也就盡人皆知了。然而，這種盡人皆知並未造成市場上跟風買股、搭車賺錢，反倒招致大規模的反向做空，從而造成了一場針對大衆股價的多空對做。保時捷當然是站在多方，而空方則是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312181831","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312590769,"gmtCreate":1612163159251,"gmtModify":1704867565560,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"co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補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","listText":"中信的效率有多高，18號律師見證，25號收到第一封信件（賬戶資料及密碼函），29號收到香港卡！！！10天！！！ 補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","text":"中信的效率有多高，18號律師見證，25號收到第一封信件（賬戶資料及密碼函），29號收到香港卡！！！10天！！！ 補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5940d6fc4343daacb6f099edfb02c865","width":"549","height":"295"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632ef8bcb915f71f3e9d2e05f1f3cc6c","width":"660","height":"231"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a76884fada9083aa9bc1208b85673a","width":"660","height":"265"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312946244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334811243,"gmtCreate":1610724577082,"gmtModify":1704985939833,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334811243","repostId":"1126562453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126562453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610716609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126562453?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-15 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"New Debt King\" Gundlach looks forward to 2021: a year of great changes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126562453","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"“新债王”冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货","content":"<p><i>Gundlach, the \"new debt king\", recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0900dcad3be53069226de0c3ea50406e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Looking forward to 2021, the key word given by \"new debt king\" Jeffrey Gundlach is \"vicissitudes of life\". During this year, many megatrends that prevailed for many years will reverse, and investors must be prepared for this-the U.S. stock market will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will strengthen, and the dollar will tend to weaken.</p><p>The founder and CEO of Los Angeles Double Line Capital is a giant in the fixed income mutual fund and ETF industry, and has the reputation of debt king. Earlier this week, during an online seminar, he released his 2021 global market and economic annual forecast.</p><p>The subtitle of Gundlach's expected report is \"Aqualung\", which pays tribute to the famous sculpture of the same name created by Jeff Koons in the 1970s (Gundlach himself is a modernist art lover). Scuba is an artificial device that allows divers to breathe underwater. Gundlach uses it here as a metaphor for various financial instruments (such as monetary policy), which financial markets rely on to survive in extreme environments.</p><p>The following is a summary of what Gundlach expects this year.</p><p>According to Deutsche Bank's customer survey, U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks are the most popular asset categories for investors at the moment, while value-oriented fixed-income products, cash and UK stocks are the most left out.</p><p>Although the news of significant progress in vaccines later came out, the global GDP forecast has not changed since the middle of last year. Gundlach pointed out that in fact, the economy is still in recession. \"You have to be able to fully reverse all kinds of negative performance and get back to the pre-epidemic GDP growth trend line, and we are actually still relying on all those policies to survive now.\"</p><p>Since 2016, the long-term growth trend line of GDP has been around 2.5%, and now, the economic output of the United States is still about $1 trillion offline. So the economy hasn't really come out of recession, Gundlach believes.</p><p>The technology industry accounts for 6% of U.S. gross domestic product and 2% of employment, but it accounts for as much as 38% of the total market value of the S&P 500 index. As shown in the figure below, Gundlach's comment is that this shows that \"the severity of wealth imbalance is obvious\".</p><p>Americans are not traveling half as often as before the outbreak, according to the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, but around Thanksgiving and Christmas, things have changed slightly. Gundlach said that this development can be seen as preliminary evidence that there is indeed a suppressed demand.</p><p>The survey found that the proportion of people willing to telecommute from home five days a week has soared from 27% before the epidemic to 61% in October, while those willing to work from home at least one day a week are as high as 95%. Gundlach predicted that this would force enterprises to make \"difficult decisions\" and reset their jobs to adapt to the change of employees' minds.</p><p>When the epidemic first broke out, the initial wave of layoffs appeared in areas such as travel, leisure and entertainment, and hotels. With the deepening of economic restructuring, more and more high-paying jobs have begun to fall victim to layoffs, and Gundlach believes that layoffs are spreading up the income ladder, and now it is only the beginning.</p><p>Now, the consumption of goods has begun to increase, but the employment situation is deteriorating. Gundlach said that this is actually the gradual emergence of the \"dark side\" of stimulus policy. Consumers do spend more money, but most of this money goes to areas that generate fewer job opportunities, such as online retailing.</p><p>From the end of the third quarter of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the debt-to-GDP ratio of many major economies has increased significantly, among which the United States is particularly eye-catching. 97% of the gross domestic product soared to 127%.</p><p>Gundlach pointed out that the Fed's balance sheet is also growing roughly in tandem. Currently, the Fed's plan is to grow its balance sheet by $12 billion per month in 2021, of which $8 billion will come from quantitative easing and $4 billion will come from the purchase of mortgage bonds.</p><p>The U.S. trade deficit has begun to expand, reaching 3.4% of GDP. Although the expansion rate is limited, the absolute figure is the largest since 2008. As for the fiscal deficit, it is even more \"explosive\". The double deficit situation means that the US dollar can only be in a long-term downward channel. However, Gundlach is still neutral to the US dollar at present, because there is still a lag period of 18 to 24 months before the double deficit really has a substantial impact on the US dollar.</p><p>\"The most significant directional change will be the weakness of the US dollar.\" Previously, the US Dollar Index peaked twice in 2016 and in the initial stages of this epidemic, and now the decline is the general trend. Gundlach said that the S&P 500 index still enjoys the support of the zero interest rate policy, but inflation will become a heavyweight \"game changer.\" Previously, inflation continued to be moderate for quite some time, providing strong support for stock and bond prices. However, with high inflation, the relationship between these assets will become closer.</p><p>At present, based on the P/E of earnings expectations, the S&P 500 index is 6% higher than the non-US market as a whole, far exceeding the normal 2%. Gundlach pointed out that this difference in performance has reached a level not seen since 2008, and \"perhaps the performance of the United States relative to other places has reached a peak point.\"</p><p>At present, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings of U.S. stocks is 32, while the rest of the world markets as a whole are only 16. Gundlach pointed out that, in fact, unlike what many people think, U.S. stocks are not always more expensive than other stocks, especially before the Internet bubble era. \"The cyclically adjusted P/E in the United States is higher than the rest of the world, which is by no means always the case.\"</p><p>With the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as spokespersons, emerging market stocks have performed better than U.S. stocks since June, reversing the momentum since the beginning of 2019 in one fell swoop. Gundlach advised investors to overweight Asian markets. In fact, during this period, the performance of the Latin American market declined slightly, and the strength of emerging markets was mainly contributed by the Asian market, among which South Korea was particularly eye-catching. However, Gundlach added that Latin America is making a comeback because the local economy is becoming one of the earliest beneficiaries of the vaccine. His suggestion is that if investors have a certain risk tolerance, they might as well consider Latin America.</p><p>The average reading of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) in 2020 is approaching 30, which is about three times the average reading since 2013. Gundlach believes that this is the forerunner of \"great changes\".</p><p>The performance of the Nasdaq relative to the S&P 500 index has actually reached a level comparable to that of the Internet era. Gundlach warned that so-called FAANG stocks have \"overheated their engines.\" If this heat exceeds the extreme level of 1999, \"it's finished\", which means that U.S. stock prices will fall across the board.</p><p>Other signs of great changes include the fact that the Dow is no longer performing better than micro-cap stocks, and the S&P 500 is no longer performing better than the Russell 2000 index, a small-cap stock indicator. Gundlach commented that small stocks have got a \"roaring start\" this year, and those corporate stocks with poor balance sheets can no longer maintain better-than-average performance.</p><p>Those \"zombie enterprises\", that is, enterprises whose interest costs have exceeded profits, have increased from 8% to 15% of all American enterprises in the past decade. These companies are often players with aggressive price strategies. Their existence and increase have caused de-inflationary effects and put long-term pressure on prices.</p><p>Gundlach cited data on global bank stocks. Since 1995, the stock of Bank of Japan has fallen by 84%. The performance of European bank stocks followed that of American banks until the global financial crisis. Since then, U.S. bank stocks have left European banks far behind. This is mainly because low and even negative interest rates have had a very serious impact on the business and financial performance of Japanese and European banks. The Federal Reserve has never taken the step towards negative interest rates, which is crucial to the performance of Bank of America.</p><p>Taking the consumer price index as a reference, the inflation rate in the United States has been less than 3% for more than 20 years, but gundlach believes that this situation may hardly last. Although there are still two possibilities of deflation (because of debt levels) and inflation (because of money printing) in the future, Gundlach's judgment is that by June 2021, the consumer price index will rise by more than 2.5%.</p><p>Gundlach recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</p><p>Gundlach said that he is currently neutral on gold and believes that it is not the right opportunity to buy it. He is also neutral to Bitcoin, but at the same time emphasizes that the latter fluctuates too violently-\"you may lose 20% in an hour\". Behind Bitcoin's recent surge, it relies largely on the narrative endorsed by institutional investors, such as the statement of billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones.</p><p>Stocks are already quite expensive, just not expensive relative to bonds. The chart below shows the relative performance of the yield based on the stock cycle-adjusted earnings versus the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond. In fact, stocks are still near the bottom of the range, indicating that they are relatively cheap relative to bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f598a477b4ac314c0b4cb7daf7527b8f\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"449\"></p><p>According to the copper-gold ratio, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield should have been 2%. Gundlach added that many other indicators are sending similar signals-current bond yields are too low.</p><p>Therefore, his prediction is that unless the Fed takes action to control the yield curve, the curve will inevitably gradually become steeper. \"If yield curve control doesn't occur, the yield differential between the two-year and ten-year Treasury Bond will be 300 basis points.\"</p><p>Another factor that will push yields higher is that foreign investors as a whole have actually been net sellers of U.S. Treasury Bond for the past seven years. According to this, Gundlach questioned-if the Ministry of Finance wants to issue new bonds without causing yields to rise rapidly. Can they find enough buyers to ensure that their wishes come true?</p><p>He also said that bank loans look \"cheap\" at present and will benefit from the prospect of higher inflation and interest rates.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"New Debt King\" Gundlach looks forward to 2021: a year of great changes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"New Debt King\" Gundlach looks forward to 2021: a year of great changes\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-15 21:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Gundlach, the \"new debt king\", recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0900dcad3be53069226de0c3ea50406e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Looking forward to 2021, the key word given by \"new debt king\" Jeffrey Gundlach is \"vicissitudes of life\". During this year, many megatrends that prevailed for many years will reverse, and investors must be prepared for this-the U.S. stock market will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will strengthen, and the dollar will tend to weaken.</p><p>The founder and CEO of Los Angeles Double Line Capital is a giant in the fixed income mutual fund and ETF industry, and has the reputation of debt king. Earlier this week, during an online seminar, he released his 2021 global market and economic annual forecast.</p><p>The subtitle of Gundlach's expected report is \"Aqualung\", which pays tribute to the famous sculpture of the same name created by Jeff Koons in the 1970s (Gundlach himself is a modernist art lover). Scuba is an artificial device that allows divers to breathe underwater. Gundlach uses it here as a metaphor for various financial instruments (such as monetary policy), which financial markets rely on to survive in extreme environments.</p><p>The following is a summary of what Gundlach expects this year.</p><p>According to Deutsche Bank's customer survey, U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks are the most popular asset categories for investors at the moment, while value-oriented fixed-income products, cash and UK stocks are the most left out.</p><p>Although the news of significant progress in vaccines later came out, the global GDP forecast has not changed since the middle of last year. Gundlach pointed out that in fact, the economy is still in recession. \"You have to be able to fully reverse all kinds of negative performance and get back to the pre-epidemic GDP growth trend line, and we are actually still relying on all those policies to survive now.\"</p><p>Since 2016, the long-term growth trend line of GDP has been around 2.5%, and now, the economic output of the United States is still about $1 trillion offline. So the economy hasn't really come out of recession, Gundlach believes.</p><p>The technology industry accounts for 6% of U.S. gross domestic product and 2% of employment, but it accounts for as much as 38% of the total market value of the S&P 500 index. As shown in the figure below, Gundlach's comment is that this shows that \"the severity of wealth imbalance is obvious\".</p><p>Americans are not traveling half as often as before the outbreak, according to the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, but around Thanksgiving and Christmas, things have changed slightly. Gundlach said that this development can be seen as preliminary evidence that there is indeed a suppressed demand.</p><p>The survey found that the proportion of people willing to telecommute from home five days a week has soared from 27% before the epidemic to 61% in October, while those willing to work from home at least one day a week are as high as 95%. Gundlach predicted that this would force enterprises to make \"difficult decisions\" and reset their jobs to adapt to the change of employees' minds.</p><p>When the epidemic first broke out, the initial wave of layoffs appeared in areas such as travel, leisure and entertainment, and hotels. With the deepening of economic restructuring, more and more high-paying jobs have begun to fall victim to layoffs, and Gundlach believes that layoffs are spreading up the income ladder, and now it is only the beginning.</p><p>Now, the consumption of goods has begun to increase, but the employment situation is deteriorating. Gundlach said that this is actually the gradual emergence of the \"dark side\" of stimulus policy. Consumers do spend more money, but most of this money goes to areas that generate fewer job opportunities, such as online retailing.</p><p>From the end of the third quarter of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the debt-to-GDP ratio of many major economies has increased significantly, among which the United States is particularly eye-catching. 97% of the gross domestic product soared to 127%.</p><p>Gundlach pointed out that the Fed's balance sheet is also growing roughly in tandem. Currently, the Fed's plan is to grow its balance sheet by $12 billion per month in 2021, of which $8 billion will come from quantitative easing and $4 billion will come from the purchase of mortgage bonds.</p><p>The U.S. trade deficit has begun to expand, reaching 3.4% of GDP. Although the expansion rate is limited, the absolute figure is the largest since 2008. As for the fiscal deficit, it is even more \"explosive\". The double deficit situation means that the US dollar can only be in a long-term downward channel. However, Gundlach is still neutral to the US dollar at present, because there is still a lag period of 18 to 24 months before the double deficit really has a substantial impact on the US dollar.</p><p>\"The most significant directional change will be the weakness of the US dollar.\" Previously, the US Dollar Index peaked twice in 2016 and in the initial stages of this epidemic, and now the decline is the general trend. Gundlach said that the S&P 500 index still enjoys the support of the zero interest rate policy, but inflation will become a heavyweight \"game changer.\" Previously, inflation continued to be moderate for quite some time, providing strong support for stock and bond prices. However, with high inflation, the relationship between these assets will become closer.</p><p>At present, based on the P/E of earnings expectations, the S&P 500 index is 6% higher than the non-US market as a whole, far exceeding the normal 2%. Gundlach pointed out that this difference in performance has reached a level not seen since 2008, and \"perhaps the performance of the United States relative to other places has reached a peak point.\"</p><p>At present, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings of U.S. stocks is 32, while the rest of the world markets as a whole are only 16. Gundlach pointed out that, in fact, unlike what many people think, U.S. stocks are not always more expensive than other stocks, especially before the Internet bubble era. \"The cyclically adjusted P/E in the United States is higher than the rest of the world, which is by no means always the case.\"</p><p>With the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as spokespersons, emerging market stocks have performed better than U.S. stocks since June, reversing the momentum since the beginning of 2019 in one fell swoop. Gundlach advised investors to overweight Asian markets. In fact, during this period, the performance of the Latin American market declined slightly, and the strength of emerging markets was mainly contributed by the Asian market, among which South Korea was particularly eye-catching. However, Gundlach added that Latin America is making a comeback because the local economy is becoming one of the earliest beneficiaries of the vaccine. His suggestion is that if investors have a certain risk tolerance, they might as well consider Latin America.</p><p>The average reading of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) in 2020 is approaching 30, which is about three times the average reading since 2013. Gundlach believes that this is the forerunner of \"great changes\".</p><p>The performance of the Nasdaq relative to the S&P 500 index has actually reached a level comparable to that of the Internet era. Gundlach warned that so-called FAANG stocks have \"overheated their engines.\" If this heat exceeds the extreme level of 1999, \"it's finished\", which means that U.S. stock prices will fall across the board.</p><p>Other signs of great changes include the fact that the Dow is no longer performing better than micro-cap stocks, and the S&P 500 is no longer performing better than the Russell 2000 index, a small-cap stock indicator. Gundlach commented that small stocks have got a \"roaring start\" this year, and those corporate stocks with poor balance sheets can no longer maintain better-than-average performance.</p><p>Those \"zombie enterprises\", that is, enterprises whose interest costs have exceeded profits, have increased from 8% to 15% of all American enterprises in the past decade. These companies are often players with aggressive price strategies. Their existence and increase have caused de-inflationary effects and put long-term pressure on prices.</p><p>Gundlach cited data on global bank stocks. Since 1995, the stock of Bank of Japan has fallen by 84%. The performance of European bank stocks followed that of American banks until the global financial crisis. Since then, U.S. bank stocks have left European banks far behind. This is mainly because low and even negative interest rates have had a very serious impact on the business and financial performance of Japanese and European banks. The Federal Reserve has never taken the step towards negative interest rates, which is crucial to the performance of Bank of America.</p><p>Taking the consumer price index as a reference, the inflation rate in the United States has been less than 3% for more than 20 years, but gundlach believes that this situation may hardly last. Although there are still two possibilities of deflation (because of debt levels) and inflation (because of money printing) in the future, Gundlach's judgment is that by June 2021, the consumer price index will rise by more than 2.5%.</p><p>Gundlach recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</p><p>Gundlach said that he is currently neutral on gold and believes that it is not the right opportunity to buy it. He is also neutral to Bitcoin, but at the same time emphasizes that the latter fluctuates too violently-\"you may lose 20% in an hour\". Behind Bitcoin's recent surge, it relies largely on the narrative endorsed by institutional investors, such as the statement of billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones.</p><p>Stocks are already quite expensive, just not expensive relative to bonds. The chart below shows the relative performance of the yield based on the stock cycle-adjusted earnings versus the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond. In fact, stocks are still near the bottom of the range, indicating that they are relatively cheap relative to bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f598a477b4ac314c0b4cb7daf7527b8f\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"449\"></p><p>According to the copper-gold ratio, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield should have been 2%. Gundlach added that many other indicators are sending similar signals-current bond yields are too low.</p><p>Therefore, his prediction is that unless the Fed takes action to control the yield curve, the curve will inevitably gradually become steeper. \"If yield curve control doesn't occur, the yield differential between the two-year and ten-year Treasury Bond will be 300 basis points.\"</p><p>Another factor that will push yields higher is that foreign investors as a whole have actually been net sellers of U.S. Treasury Bond for the past seven years. According to this, Gundlach questioned-if the Ministry of Finance wants to issue new bonds without causing yields to rise rapidly. Can they find enough buyers to ensure that their wishes come true?</p><p>He also said that bank loans look \"cheap\" at present and will benefit from the prospect of higher inflation and interest rates.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sx5LRuCD6m0qI_SsvZLgjg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ce8ecf1c322228b36ddbb621a98231","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sx5LRuCD6m0qI_SsvZLgjg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126562453","content_text":"“新债王”冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货膨胀前景的对冲。“这是一个必胜的公式。”\n\n\n展望2021年，“新债王”冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）给出的关键词是“沧桑巨变”。在这一年当中，许多之前盛行多年的大趋势都会宣告反转，而投资者对此必须做好准备——美国股市的表现将不及世界其他地方，通货膨胀将会抬升，波动率将会强化，美元将会趋向疲软。\n这位洛杉矶双线资本创始人、首席执行官是一位固定收益共同基金及ETF行业的巨头，有债王的美誉。本周早些时候，在一次线上研讨会期间，他发布了自己的2021年全球市场及经济年度预期。\n冈拉克预期报告的副标题是“水肺”（Aqualung），以此来致敬昆斯（Jeff Koons）上世纪70年代创作的著名同名雕塑（冈拉克本人是一位现代派艺术爱好者）。水肺是一种人工装置，可以让潜水者在水下呼吸，冈拉克在这里用其比喻各种金融工具（比如货币政策），金融市场正是靠着这些工具在极端环境当中存活下来的。\n以下即冈拉克今年预期的内容概要。\n根据德意志银行的客户调查，美国股票和新兴市场股票是投资者当下最青睐的资产门类，而最受冷落的，则是价值导向型固定收益产品、现金和英国股票。\n虽然后来传出了疫苗取得重大进展的消息，但是从去年年中以来，全球国内生产总值预期就没有改变过。冈拉克指出，其实现在经济依然是在衰退当中。“你必须能够让各种消极表现全部充分反转，回到疫情爆发前的国内生产总值增长趋势线上，而我们现在，其实依然是在依靠着所有那些政策而存活。”\n2016年以来，国内生产总值的长期增长趋势线是2.5%左右，而现在，美国经济产出还处在线下大约1万亿美元的地方。因此，冈拉克认为，经济尚未真正走出衰退。\n科技行业在美国国内生产总值当中占比6%，在就业当中占比2%，但是该板块在标普500指数总市值当中却占比高达38%。如下图所示，冈拉克的点评是，这正说明“财富不均衡的严重程度显而易见”。\n根据美国运输安全管理局的数据，美国人的旅行频率还不及疫情爆发前的一半，但是在感恩节和圣诞节前后，局面已经略有改观。冈拉克说，这一发展可以视为初步的证据，证明确实存在着受到压制的需求。\n调查发现，愿意每周五天都居家远程办公的人所占据比例已经从疫情前的27%猛增到10月间的61%，而愿意每周至少一天在家上班的人，更是高达95%。冈拉克预言说，这将迫使企业做出“艰难的决定”，对工作进行重新设置，以适应员工想法的改变。\n疫情刚刚爆发时，最初的裁员潮是出现在旅行、休闲娱乐和旅馆等领域。伴随经济重组的深入，越来越多高薪职位也开始成为裁员的牺牲品，而冈拉克相信，裁员沿着收入阶梯向上蔓延，现在还只是一个开始。\n现在，商品消费量已经开始增长，但是就业情况却在恶化。冈拉克说，这其实正是刺激政策的“黑暗面”的逐渐显现。消费者确实是花掉了更多的钱，但是这些钱大多流向了产生就业机会较少的领域，比如线上零售业。\n从2019年第三季度结束到2020年第三季度结束，不少主要经济体的债务对国内生产总值比率都出现了大幅度升高，其中美国尤其引人注目，债务从相当于国内生产总值的97%猛增到了127%。\n冈拉克指出，联储资产负债表大致也是同步增长。目前，联储的计划是，在2021年当中让资产负债表每月增长120亿美元，其中80亿美元是来自量化宽松，40亿美元是来自购买抵押债券。\n美国贸易赤字已经开始扩张，达到了国内生产总值的3.4%，虽然扩张幅度有限，但是绝对数字已经是2008年以来最大的了。至于财政赤字，更是呈现“爆炸”态势。双赤字的局面就意味着美元只能是处在长期下滑的通道当中。不过冈拉克目前对美元还是中立的立场，因为双赤字要真正对美元形成实质性的影响，还有十八个月到二十四个月的滞后期。\n“最重大的方向性变化就将是美元的疲软。”此前，美元指数于2016年，以及本次疫情的最初阶段曾经两次见顶，而现在下滑已经是大势所趋。冈拉克表示，标普500指数目前还享受着零利率政策的支撑，但是通货膨胀将成为重量级的“游戏改变者”。此前相当时间内，通货膨胀持续温和，为股票和债券价格提供了有力的支持。不过，伴随通货膨胀高企，这些资产之间的关联也会变得更加密切。\n目前，基于盈利预期的市盈率，标普500指数要比非美市场整体高出6%，远远超出正常情况下的2%。冈拉克指出，这一表现差异已经达到了2008年以来所仅见的水平，“也许美国相对于其他地方的表现已经到了见顶的时刻”。\n目前，美股的周期调整市盈是32，而世界其他市场整体只有16。冈拉克指出，其实与许多人以为的不同，美股并不是总要贵过其他股票的，在互联网泡沫时代之前尤其如此。“美国的周期调整市盈率高于世界其他地方，这绝不是历来如此的。”\n以iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF和SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust分别为代言人，新兴市场股票的表现6月以来就一直要好过美股，一举扭转了2019年年初以来的势头。冈拉克建议投资者增持亚洲市场。事实是，这段时间里，拉丁美洲市场表现还略有下滑，新兴市场的强势主要都是亚洲市场的贡献，其中韩国尤其抢眼。不过冈拉克又补充道，拉美正在卷土重来，因为当地经济正在成为疫苗最早的受益者之一。他的建议是，如果投资者有一定的风险承受力，不妨考虑拉美。\n以芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）2020年当中的平均读数逼近30，大约相当于2013年以来平均读数的近三倍。冈拉克认为，这正是“沧桑巨变”的先声。\n纳指相对于标普500指数的表现，其实已经达到了可以和互联网时代相提并论的水平。冈拉克警告说，所谓FAANG股票已经“引擎过热”。如果这种热度再超过1999年的极端水平，“那就完蛋了”，意思是说，美股价格将全线下滑。\n其他沧桑巨变的迹象还包括，道指的表现当下已经不再好于微型股票了，标普500指数的表现也不再好于小型股票指标罗素2000指数了。冈拉克评论道，小型股票在今年获得了一个“咆哮的开始”，那些资产负债表较差的企业股票，已经无法再维持好于平均水准的表现了。\n那些“僵尸企业”，即利息成本已经超过利润的企业，在全部美国企业当中的占比过去十年以来从8%增加到了15%。这些企业往往都是价格策略激进的玩家，他们的存在和增加造成了去通货膨胀影响，对价格形成了长期压力。\n冈拉克举出了全球银行股票的数据。1995年至今，日本银行股票已经累计下跌84%。欧洲银行股票表现一直追随着美国银行，直至全球金融危机爆发。从那之后，美国银行股票就将欧洲银行远远抛在了身后。这主要是因为低利率乃至负利率对日本和欧洲银行的业务及财务表现造成了非常严重的影响。美国联储始终没有迈出负利率的那一步，这一点对美国银行的表现至关重要。\n以消费价格指数为参照，美国的通货膨胀率已经超过二十年都不到3%了，但是冈拉克认为，这样的局面恐怕很难再持续下去了。虽然说起来，未来依然是通货紧缩（因为债务水平）和通货膨胀（因为印钞）两种可能性并存，但是冈拉克的判断是，到2021年6月，消费者价格指数就将涨过2.5%。\n冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货膨胀前景的对冲。“这是一个必胜的公式。”\n冈拉克表示，自己目前对黄金是中立的立场，认为目前不是买进的合适机会。他对比特币也是中立的立场，但是同时又强调后者波动太过剧烈——“你可能一小时就亏掉20%”。比特币近期的暴涨背后，很大程度上是依靠着机构投资者背书的叙事，比如亿万富翁投资人琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）的表态。\n股票价格已经相当昂贵，只是相对于债券还算不上昂贵。下图为基于股票周期调整盈利的收益率与十年期国债收益率的相对表现。股票其实依然居于区间接近底部的位置，说明它们相对于债券还算廉价。\n\n根据铜金比率推算，十年期国债收益率本应该是2%才对。冈拉克补充说，其他许多指标也都发出了类似的信号——当前的债券收益率过低了。\n因此，他的预测是，除非联储出手进行收益率曲线控制，不然曲线必然会逐渐趋向陡峭。“如果不发生收益率曲线控制，两年期和十年期国债的收益率差将达到300个基点。”\n另外一个将使得收益率走高的因素是，过去七年时间当中，外国投资者整体而言其实一直是美国国债的净卖家。冈拉克据此发出质疑——财政部想要在不导致收益率飞速上扬的i情况下发行新债，他们是否能够找到足够多的买家，来确保自己的愿望得以实现？\n他还说，银行贷款目前看上去较为“廉价”，而且将从通货膨胀和利率走高的前景当中获益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335680421,"gmtCreate":1610586554963,"gmtModify":1704984725645,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335680421","repostId":"332565330","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":332565330,"gmtCreate":1610435760000,"gmtModify":1704983660740,"author":{"id":"3527667638457531","authorId":"3527667638457531","name":"互联网怪盗团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/887d4a1db5c87bb18e811a63bbad5e18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667638457531","idStr":"3527667638457531"},"themes":[],"title":"每個人都有必要認真學習“財務報表分析”這門基本功","htmlText":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","listText":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","text":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e6a17be2534f81a01c0e6769ac5f2d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332565330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332530258,"gmtCreate":1610428893174,"gmtModify":1704983608331,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332530258","repostId":"1107390539","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":800304338,"gmtCreate":1627275675924,"gmtModify":1703486543161,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This 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error","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800304338","repostId":"1127686463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162607824,"gmtCreate":1624060008268,"gmtModify":1703827720654,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162607824","repostId":"166207379","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":166207379,"gmtCreate":1624009730088,"gmtModify":1703826463812,"author":{"id":"3568081734360099","authorId":"3568081734360099","name":"何安迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7061d02e3c72d7ce21a375ae80cb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568081734360099","idStr":"3568081734360099"},"themes":[],"title":"一夜之間從65美元到清零，幣圈最大的噩夢終於出現了","htmlText":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","listText":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","text":"事件 雖然幣圈動不動血崩/暴漲，大家多半也見怪不怪，但是大家見過幾小時內就從60美元暴跌清零的嘛？着實還是震驚了我一番。 美東時間6月16日週三晚，TITAN代幣的價格從最高點65美元迅速跌到0，這都不是跳水，是跳懸崖了，最後一筆交易的價格爲0.000000035美元。雖然0也很多，但是放在小數點後就不那麼美觀了。 首先我們要了解一個概念，就是DeFi DeFi全稱“Decentralized finance”，中文名“去中心化金融”，是一種基於區塊鏈的金融制度。 在傳統金融的模式下，我們需要找銀行借一筆錢，需要經過幾道門檻，首先要找個銀行的上班日，其次需要提供涉及個人隱私的資料審查，然後需要等待銀行審批，最後能不能成功借到錢還是另一回事。如果存錢，由於制度不透明，我們不知道自己的錢究竟被銀行用到了什麼地方，只能祈禱最後這筆錢不要變成銀行收不回來的不良資產。 這個時候就有了“去中心化”的概念，就是跳過銀行這個中介，直接用戶與用戶進行資產的轉移，省事省力還不用泄露隱私。區塊鏈的本質，就是一個共享數據庫，可以理解成爲公開賬本，上面記錄了每一筆交易，對所有人開放，不可篡改，全程留痕，集體維護。 所以DeFi制度相當於就是傳統金融+區塊鏈，DeFi平臺管理的也不是實打實的金錢，而是用戶的加密貨幣資產。 貨幣市場IRON Finance 在DeFi領域，有許多貨幣市場，比如比特幣、Uniswap、Compound、還有這次血崩的IRON Finance。 如果你在IRON Finance上出借了自己的加密貨幣資產，有借款就會有利息，你收到的利息，就是平臺的原生代幣TITAN。每個平臺的原生代幣都不一樣，比如Compound的原生代幣就是COMP代幣。 當平臺的用戶越多，代幣的價格就上漲的越多。 但是還有一個問題，加密貨幣有一個不容忽視的特點，就是愛好血崩，動不動就暴漲暴跌，這對借貸雙","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb8429eedd000b87168acb260f2d7f2","width":"240","height":"159"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37515ff8aca46379b035ee5dfd148e9e","width":"550","height":"268"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d949c356dc8ddbd3d861ef8132360e2d","width":"300","height":"300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166207379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819188105,"gmtCreate":1630044566007,"gmtModify":1676530209246,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819188105","repostId":"2162010633","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2162010633","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1630040923,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162010633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-27 13:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Daiwa: Xiaomi rises to outperform rating with target price of HK $28","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162010633","media":"新浪港股","summary":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","content":"<p><div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintains the target price of Xiaomi (01810) at HK $28, which is equivalent to 28 times the forecast market ratio. At the same time, it raised the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"Hold\" to \"Outperform\". The bank believes that the recent correction in Xiaomi's stock price and the flexibility of its fundamentals under regulatory crackdowns have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was stable and better than expected, and the gross profit margin of the hardware business during the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectations. Group Announces Acquisition of Autonomous Driving Technology Company Deep for New EV Business...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daiwa: Xiaomi rises to outperform rating with target price of HK $28</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaiwa: Xiaomi rises to outperform rating with target price of HK $28\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪港股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 13:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Daiwa released a research report saying that it maintains the target price of Xiaomi (01810) at HK $28, which is equivalent to 28 times the forecast market ratio. At the same time, it raised the group's revenue forecast from this year to 2023 by 2% to 5% to reflect the strong sales of hardware products. Rating upgraded from \"Hold\" to \"Outperform\". The bank believes that the recent correction in Xiaomi's stock price and the flexibility of its fundamentals under regulatory crackdowns have made Xiaomi more attractive. The company's performance in the second quarter of this year was stable and better than expected, and the gross profit margin of the hardware business during the promotion season was still better than the bank's expectations. Group Announces Acquisition of Autonomous Driving Technology Company Deep for New EV Business...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml\">新浪港股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2ef4a4294363170f247fce5d7ae479","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkgg/2021-08-27/doc-ikqciyzm3926271.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2162010633","content_text":"大和发布研究报告称，维持小米（01810）目标价28港元，相当预测市率28倍，同时调高集团今年至2023年的收入预测2%至5%，以反映硬件产品销售强劲。评级由“持有”升至“跑赢大市”。\n　　该行认为，小米近期股价的回调，及在监管打击下的基本面有弹性，令小米吸引力增加。公司今年第二季业绩稳建优于预期，硬件业务于推广季节的毛利率仍较该行预期为佳。集团宣布就新电动车业务收购自动驾驶技术公司Deep Motion，认为其产品和销售渠道获取市场占有率的策略有良好效果。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831787129,"gmtCreate":1629349936161,"gmtModify":1676530011386,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831787129","repostId":"1151591091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325998229,"gmtCreate":1615855630161,"gmtModify":1704787473807,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325998229","repostId":"2119141992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296276,"gmtCreate":1615108172395,"gmtModify":1704778712701,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296276","repostId":"1150364023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150364023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615082582,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150364023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-07 10:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Apocalypse of the Big Fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150364023","media":" 阿基米德Biotech","summary":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世","content":"<p>Legend has it that a fish's memory is only 7 seconds.</p><p>How many days can investors remember?</p><p>We feel miserable today, but we forget that the market almost fell to the limit on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we even forget that after the GEM peaked on February 25th last year, the biggest drop was 20%.</p><p>After a while, I will forget the suffering of these days.</p><p>After a while, the world will remain the same, and the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for a long time will not change.</p><p><b>About Cycle</b></p><p>It is not too much interpretation of the sharp drop after the Spring Festival. It is temporarily regarded as repeating the standard process after the end of the spring market, which happens every year.</p><p>The decline of core assets is even greater than in previous years, because it rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal joy is bound to have a brutal ending.</p><p>The spring market will definitely come. Even in the bleak and rainy 2018, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has experienced 19 consecutive gains. The spring market will definitely go, and those who tell you that the bull market is coming are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market lasted for about 2 months, and the highest point almost corresponded to the maximum trading volume. During the decline, the volume gradually shrank, and the decline was rapid, reaching a stage low within one month. In the past two years, after the end of the spring market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the biggest drop of the GEM was 20%.</p><p>Now the decline of the market is not as good as in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that can't see the future, but it can clearly illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will it continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield continues to rise, representing a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. The Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising simultaneously. There is no boundary possibility of monetary policy relaxation, and all that remains is the question of when to turn.</p><p>Therefore, a warning voice immediately appeared: many people have not experienced a complete cycle, and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stocks.</p><p>I just want to say: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Any idea why you only invest in biomedicine? Just don't want to care about macro and cycles.</p><p>Under the systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>But as long as we survive the main decline and enter a period of shock, even if it is a negative decline, biomedicine is not afraid. The advantages of deterministic growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own operating track, and a structural market will emerge.</p><p>Deleveraging in 2018, no matter how bad the memory is, you may still feel sad. The market began to decline for a year in February, but CSI Medical and CSI Pharmaceutical hit a new high on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and The first centralized procurement could maintain positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Nowadays, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically cross bulls and bears, and we need to strengthen our confidence in times of adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About timing</b></p><p>There is an important phenomenon in the adjustment after the end of this spring market, and the trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have landed yet, or it is possible that residents' assets have been hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that the newly issued fund still had 565.5 billion yuan of funds ready to build positions, and 72 equity funds will be raised soon, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Lao Ba's words are full of wisdom and not outdated. Macro forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>Things at the macro level are unclear. Whether the bulls and bears will switch later and how liquidity will be tightened, I won't predict it, and it's not too timing.</p><p>What needs to be stable is risk appetite. Are you afraid when it falls, and when it rises, you think why you were afraid in the first place?</p><p>Have you experienced many rounds of warm and cold alternation, or can't you overcome this humanity?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too out of touch. The autumn and winter correction, the spring market, and the subsequent downward killing are very obvious and can be used. However, it is too timely to invest based on the forecast of bull-bear conversion and full-year decline.</p><p>Systemic risks will always pass. As long as there is no thunderstorm in the company itself and the growth logic is still there, it will eventually be repaired.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. It is impossible for young Christians to concentrate their money in traditional industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream is to allocate growth stocks with acceptable fundamentals.</p><p>The problem now is that the valuation is indeed overdrawn too much, and it will be valuable when it falls to a certain level. The top high-quality assets are digesting the valuation and looking for a balanced center. We can observe two anchors, one is Hengrui Medicine. If the existing valuation system does not collapse, it will be the anchor of the entire biomedical sector. The other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling. During the entire pullback/retracement, the volume can be released Not big enough.</p><p>The Shanghai Stock Exchange is still far away from the target position, and the GEM is coming soon. Be cautious enough and don't be too pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. When systemic risks are released, investors' concerns should return to fundamentals and growth.</p><p>Liquidity tightening has no impact on biomedical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotion and timing are not the most important things, but stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous sentence in Sun Tzu's Art of War: Know yourself and the enemy, and you will win a hundred battles. I didn't understand why the bland expression was regarded as the standard before. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is cognition, and it starts from cognizing yourself. After experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement, your heart should be touched, and you can consider reflecting from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Does the shareholding match your risk appetite? If the risk tolerance is poor, it is recommended not to or cautiously allocate high-valuation, unprofitable, and high-volatility stocks, and not to take heavy positions in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to deal with short-term and long-term relationships? If you are very concerned about short-term gains, it is recommended not to or to be cautious in allocating stocks with large long-term space but short-term mess.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Sort out the stocks that are beyond the cognitive atmosphere. It is difficult to understand high valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitable. You can choose the varieties that you can understand, so that your shareholding mentality is more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses, give yourself a chance to live, and give good stocks a chance to prove yourself. Tongce Medical, Aier Ophthalmology, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guard have experienced huge declines. How can they feel nothing? There is no need to have a strong heart, and the positions are indexed and decentralized, with ballast stones and a sense of hierarchy. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Recreation Guard have experienced many plunges, but they will rise even higher later, because the configuration is tolerant of short-term errors. Don't give yourself an opportunity for weaknesses to be exposed, and don't push good stocks to the wall.</p><p>The perceptual criterion to measure whether the portfolio position is reasonable is to make yourself feel comfortable and free of pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment will only mature after the change of warm and cold. Everything is not smooth sailing. Measuring investment in years will be much indifferent.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic of CXO's high growth is very hard, and the high valuation is not entirely caused by grouping. After the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>The medical service sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, looking for a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>The fundamentals and growth of Tongce Medical have not changed. The only problem is the high valuation. Short-term fund grouping is controversial, and the bargaining chips are loose.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the good business trend continued in the fourth quarter and January this year, and it opened on the fourth day of the new year. The year-on-year growth was good, and the basic market was stable.</p><p>The two growth curves ahead are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached breakeven in half a year, showing the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as unbearable as expected, and Wuhan has achieved good results. In October 2020, the monthly revenue was about 5.5 million, reaching the break-even line. Xi'an Cunji is the hope of expanding outside the province. It develops better than Wuhan, and its site selection and talents are very good. The trial operation started on October 9th, with an average monthly income of 3 million.</p><p>In the implant business, there are about 300,000 dental implants in Zhejiang Province, compared with 3 million implants a year in South Korea. There is a huge market space for dental implants in Zhejiang Province in the future.</p><p>Orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce develops its own digital oral system, which is more conducive to the promotion of orthodontic business.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 is 550 million, and it will maintain a growth rate of 30% in the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion, PE70, which means that the performance will be overdrafted for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overdraft and maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good track, it makes exclusive profits, other companies lose money, and has almost no sales expenses, so you can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor in the shock, and carefully observe the results first.</p><p>Time will heal everything, this is not chicken soup.</p><p>Dentistry belongs to the national consumer market, and the leading market value is less than 100 billion. Will it be like this forever?</p><p>Volatility is the norm in the market, and sometimes there are extremes that are already doomed at the moment of entering the market., Even after many rounds of ups and downs, we will always be more optimistic when we are optimistic, and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right and wrong, but doing it is another matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like people who don't get sick, who get sick once by chance. One month after the end of the spring market and one month at the end of the year, the beating is relatively miserable.</p><p>When the spring market was at its peak, I expressed a very pessimistic view. Now, I will also say that it will pass.</p>","source":"lsy1611662960640","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apocalypse of the Big Fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApocalypse of the Big Fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 阿基米德Biotech</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-07 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Legend has it that a fish's memory is only 7 seconds.</p><p>How many days can investors remember?</p><p>We feel miserable today, but we forget that the market almost fell to the limit on the first trading day after the Spring Festival last year, and we even forget that after the GEM peaked on February 25th last year, the biggest drop was 20%.</p><p>After a while, I will forget the suffering of these days.</p><p>After a while, the world will remain the same, and the situation of embracing core assets and holding high-quality companies for a long time will not change.</p><p><b>About Cycle</b></p><p>It is not too much interpretation of the sharp drop after the Spring Festival. It is temporarily regarded as repeating the standard process after the end of the spring market, which happens every year.</p><p>The decline of core assets is even greater than in previous years, because it rose too much before the holiday. The so-called brutal joy is bound to have a brutal ending.</p><p>The spring market will definitely come. Even in the bleak and rainy 2018, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has experienced 19 consecutive gains. The spring market will definitely go, and those who tell you that the bull market is coming are the worst.</p><p>In the past, the spring market lasted for about 2 months, and the highest point almost corresponded to the maximum trading volume. During the decline, the volume gradually shrank, and the decline was rapid, reaching a stage low within one month. In the past two years, after the end of the spring market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 10%, and the biggest drop of the GEM was 20%.</p><p>Now the decline of the market is not as good as in previous years.</p><p>History is a mirror that can't see the future, but it can clearly illuminate where we are.</p><p>Will it continue to fall after the standard process is completed? The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield continues to rise, representing a rebound in real interest rates and rising inflation. The Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond yield is also rising simultaneously. There is no boundary possibility of monetary policy relaxation, and all that remains is the question of when to turn.</p><p>Therefore, a warning voice immediately appeared: many people have not experienced a complete cycle, and cannot see the cycle of commodity cycles and technology stocks.</p><p>I just want to say: Fuck your cycle!</p><p>Any idea why you only invest in biomedicine? Just don't want to care about macro and cycles.</p><p>Under the systemic crisis, no one is spared.</p><p>But as long as we survive the main decline and enter a period of shock, even if it is a negative decline, biomedicine is not afraid. The advantages of deterministic growth of leading companies will be reflected, and they will return to their own operating track, and a structural market will emerge.</p><p>Deleveraging in 2018, no matter how bad the memory is, you may still feel sad. The market began to decline for a year in February, but CSI Medical and CSI Pharmaceutical hit a new high on May 29. If it weren't for trade issues and The first centralized procurement could maintain positive returns throughout the year.</p><p>Nowadays, trade issues and centralized procurement are no longer problems.</p><p>Biomedicine can basically cross bulls and bears, and we need to strengthen our confidence in times of adversity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f5b8f2da168fb1f06a5f0e28ae3b0b7\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About timing</b></p><p>There is an important phenomenon in the adjustment after the end of this spring market, and the trading volume has remained stable.</p><p>Only volume doesn't lie.</p><p>What exactly does this mean?</p><p>The liquidity tightening may not have landed yet, or it is possible that residents' assets have been hedged through funds entering the market.</p><p>Previously, it was estimated that the newly issued fund still had 565.5 billion yuan of funds ready to build positions, and 72 equity funds will be raised soon, with an estimated scale of 327.1 billion yuan.</p><p>Lao Ba's words are full of wisdom and not outdated. Macro forecasts are meaningless for stock investment.</p><p>Things at the macro level are unclear. Whether the bulls and bears will switch later and how liquidity will be tightened, I won't predict it, and it's not too timing.</p><p>What needs to be stable is risk appetite. Are you afraid when it falls, and when it rises, you think why you were afraid in the first place?</p><p>Have you experienced many rounds of warm and cold alternation, or can't you overcome this humanity?</p><p>Long-term investors ignore any fluctuations and are too out of touch. The autumn and winter correction, the spring market, and the subsequent downward killing are very obvious and can be used. However, it is too timely to invest based on the forecast of bull-bear conversion and full-year decline.</p><p>Systemic risks will always pass. As long as there is no thunderstorm in the company itself and the growth logic is still there, it will eventually be repaired.</p><p>The entry of residents' assets into the market is irreversible. It is impossible for young Christians to concentrate their money in traditional industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, coal, and banking. The mainstream is to allocate growth stocks with acceptable fundamentals.</p><p>The problem now is that the valuation is indeed overdrawn too much, and it will be valuable when it falls to a certain level. The top high-quality assets are digesting the valuation and looking for a balanced center. We can observe two anchors, one is Hengrui Medicine. If the existing valuation system does not collapse, it will be the anchor of the entire biomedical sector. The other is when Tongce Medical will stop falling. During the entire pullback/retracement, the volume can be released Not big enough.</p><p>The Shanghai Stock Exchange is still far away from the target position, and the GEM is coming soon. Be cautious enough and don't be too pessimistic.</p><p>High-quality stocks are driven by endogenous growth in the long run. When systemic risks are released, investors' concerns should return to fundamentals and growth.</p><p>Liquidity tightening has no impact on biomedical performance. In the era of stock economy, sustainable high growth is scarce and can enjoy a premium.</p><p>Emotion and timing are not the most important things, but stock selection and allocation are.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/806867c17de68529fb1bfcade404d610\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>About cognition</b></p><p>The most famous sentence in Sun Tzu's Art of War: Know yourself and the enemy, and you will win a hundred battles. I didn't understand why the bland expression was regarded as the standard before. Now I understand that the most important thing in everything is cognition, and it starts from cognizing yourself. After experiencing this wave of pullback/retracement, your heart should be touched, and you can consider reflecting from the following aspects.</p><p>1. Does the shareholding match your risk appetite? If the risk tolerance is poor, it is recommended not to or cautiously allocate high-valuation, unprofitable, and high-volatility stocks, and not to take heavy positions in vaccine stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and CXOs.</p><p>2. How to deal with short-term and long-term relationships? If you are very concerned about short-term gains, it is recommended not to or to be cautious in allocating stocks with large long-term space but short-term mess.</p><p>3. If you don't understand, don't do it. Sort out the stocks that are beyond the cognitive atmosphere. It is difficult to understand high valuations, large market capitalization, and unprofitable. You can choose the varieties that you can understand, so that your shareholding mentality is more stable.</p><p>4. Don't provoke your weaknesses, give yourself a chance to live, and give good stocks a chance to prove yourself. Tongce Medical, Aier Ophthalmology, Huahan Plastic Surgery, and Kangle Guard have experienced huge declines. How can they feel nothing? There is no need to have a strong heart, and the positions are indexed and decentralized, with ballast stones and a sense of hierarchy. Huahan Plastic Surgery and Recreation Guard have experienced many plunges, but they will rise even higher later, because the configuration is tolerant of short-term errors. Don't give yourself an opportunity for weaknesses to be exposed, and don't push good stocks to the wall.</p><p>The perceptual criterion to measure whether the portfolio position is reasonable is to make yourself feel comfortable and free of pressure.</p><p>Long-term investment will only mature after the change of warm and cold. Everything is not smooth sailing. Measuring investment in years will be much indifferent.</p><p><b>About Tongce</b></p><p>The logic of CXO's high growth is very hard, and the high valuation is not entirely caused by grouping. After the market stabilizes, it will be the sector with the fastest rebound.</p><p>The medical service sector is expected to continue to fluctuate, looking for a valuation center and waiting for the market to reach a consensus again.</p><p>The collapse of fundamentals is a bottomless abyss.</p><p>The fundamentals and growth of Tongce Medical have not changed. The only problem is the high valuation. Short-term fund grouping is controversial, and the bargaining chips are loose.</p><p>According to the Tongce Medical Exchange Meeting, the good business trend continued in the fourth quarter and January this year, and it opened on the fourth day of the new year. The year-on-year growth was good, and the basic market was stable.</p><p>The two growth curves ahead are normal. The dandelion plan is progressing smoothly, and some clinics have reached breakeven in half a year, showing the replicability of the business model. Cunji Hospital outside the province is not as unbearable as expected, and Wuhan has achieved good results. In October 2020, the monthly revenue was about 5.5 million, reaching the break-even line. Xi'an Cunji is the hope of expanding outside the province. It develops better than Wuhan, and its site selection and talents are very good. The trial operation started on October 9th, with an average monthly income of 3 million.</p><p>In the implant business, there are about 300,000 dental implants in Zhejiang Province, compared with 3 million implants a year in South Korea. There is a huge market space for dental implants in Zhejiang Province in the future.</p><p>Orthodontic business, young people have a strong demand for orthodontics. Tongce develops its own digital oral system, which is more conducive to the promotion of orthodontic business.</p><p>The estimated profit in 2020 is 550 million, and it will maintain a growth rate of 30% in the next two years. The profit in 2023 is 1.2 billion, PE70, which means that the performance will be overdrafted for two or three years.</p><p>The question now is whether the market can accept valuation overdraft and maintain a 30% growth rate.</p><p>As the only leader in a good track, it makes exclusive profits, other companies lose money, and has almost no sales expenses, so you can enjoy a high premium.</p><p>The market will find a suitable anchor in the shock, and carefully observe the results first.</p><p>Time will heal everything, this is not chicken soup.</p><p>Dentistry belongs to the national consumer market, and the leading market value is less than 100 billion. Will it be like this forever?</p><p>Volatility is the norm in the market, and sometimes there are extremes that are already doomed at the moment of entering the market., Even after many rounds of ups and downs, we will always be more optimistic when we are optimistic, and more pessimistic when we are pessimistic. Knowing right and wrong, but doing it is another matter.</p><p>Biomedicine is relatively stable most of the time, just like people who don't get sick, who get sick once by chance. One month after the end of the spring market and one month at the end of the year, the beating is relatively miserable.</p><p>When the spring market was at its peak, I expressed a very pessimistic view. Now, I will also say that it will pass.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ\"> 阿基米德Biotech</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00dac9da971ee0e08b72a17d0d0b507","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/I_MyCbUt7XWZgFcEhv2coQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150364023","content_text":"传说鱼的记忆只有7秒。\n投资者的记忆能有几天？\n我们觉得今天很惨，却忘了去年春节后第一个交易日大盘几乎跌停，更忘了去年2月25日创业板见顶后，最大跌幅20%。\n过段时间又会忘了这几天的苦。\n过段时间世界还是老样子，拥抱核心资产、长持优质公司的局面不会改变的。\n关于周期\n对春节后大跌不过分演绎，暂时看作重复春季行情结束后的标准流程，每年都会发生的事情。\n核心资产跌幅比往年更大，是因为节前上涨过多，所谓残暴的欢愉，必将有残暴的结局。\n春季行情一定会来，即使凄风冷雨的2018年，上证50也出现了19连涨。春季行情也一定会走，告诉你牛市来了的人是最坏的。\n以往春季行情持续2个月左右，最高点几乎与最大成交量对应，在下跌过程中逐步缩量，而且下跌快速，在一个月内见到阶段低点。过去两年，春季行情结束后，上证指数跌幅超过10%，创业板最大跌幅为20%。\n现在大盘跌幅还不及往年。\n历史是一面镜子，不能看见未来，但可以照清我们所在的位置。\n在标准流程走完之后，是否会持续下跌？美国10年期国债收益率持续走高，代表实际利率回升，通胀升温，中国10年期国债收益率，也在同步走高。货币政策已无边际放松的可能，剩下的只是何时转向的问题。\n所以，立即有警告的声音出现：很多人没有经历过完整的周期轮回，看不见商品周期与科技股周期轮回。\n我只想说：去你的周期！\n知道为什么只投资生物医药吗？就是不想关心宏观和周期。\n系统性危机之下，无一幸免。\n但只要渡过主跌浪，进入震荡期，哪怕是阴跌，生物医药都不怕，头部公司确定性增长的优势将体现，回到自己的运行轨道上来，出现结构性行情。\n2018年去杠杆，记忆再不好可能依旧心有戚戚焉，大盘从2月开始为期一年的阴跌，但中证医疗、中证医药却在5月29日创出新高，如果不是贸易问题和第一次集采，全年可维持正收益。\n如今，贸易问题和集采不再是问题。\n生物医药基本上可以穿越牛熊，我们在逆境时需要坚定信心。\n\n关于择时\n这波春季行情结束之后的调整，有一个重要现象，成交量一直保持平稳。\n只有成交量不会撒谎。\n这到底意味着什么呢？\n流动性收紧可能还没落地，也有可能居民资产通过基金入市有所对冲。\n此前新发基金预估仍有5655亿元资金准备建仓，接下来还有72只权益类基金即将募集，规模预估为3271亿元。\n老巴的话充满了智慧，没有过时，宏观预测对股票投资无意义。\n宏观层面的东西扯不清楚，后面牛熊是否转换、流动性如何收紧，就不预测，不过分择时了。\n需要保持平稳的还有风险偏好，是不是跌的时候怕，涨的时候又觉得当初为什么要怕？\n是不是经历过多轮冷暖交替，还是无法克服这种人性？\n长线投资者无视任何波动，太不食人间烟火，秋冬回调、春季行情、随后的下杀，规律非常明显，是可以利用的。但基于牛熊转换、全年下跌的预测来投资，又过于择时了。\n系统性风险始终会过去的，只要公司本身没有暴雷，成长逻辑还在，最后都会修复的。\n居民资产入市是不可逆的，年轻基民的钱不可能集中于钢铁、有色、煤炭、银行这些传统行业，主流还是配置基本面尚可的成长股。\n现在的问题是估值确实透支得太厉害，跌到一定程度就有价值了，头部优质资产正在消化估值，寻找一个平衡的中枢。我们可以观察两个锚，一个是恒瑞医药，如果现有估值体系不崩溃，就是整个生物医药板块的定海神针，另一个是通策医疗什么时候止跌，整个回撤过程中，量能放得不够大。\n上证离目标位还有较大距离，创业板快到了，保持足够谨慎，也不用过于悲观。\n优质股票长期而言是由内生增长驱动，当系统性风险释放后，投资者的关切应回到基本面和成长性上。\n流动性收紧对生物医药业绩无影响，在存量经济时代，可持续的高增长有稀缺性，可享受溢价。\n情绪、择时不是最重要的事情，选股、配置才是。\n\n关于认知\n《孙子兵法》中最出名的一句话：知己知彼,百战不殆。以前不明白为什么很平淡的表述，被奉为圭臬。现在懂了，凡事最重要的是认知，而且是从认知自己开始，经历这波回撤，各位内心应有触动，可考虑从以下方面进行反思。\n1、持股是否与自己的风险偏好匹配？如果风险承受能力差，建议不要或谨慎配置高估值、未盈利、高波动股票，不要重仓疫苗股、港股、CXO。\n2、怎么处理短期和长期的关系？如果非常在意短期收益，建议不要或谨慎配置长期空间大但短期一塌糊涂的股票。\n3、不懂不做，对超出认知氛围的股票进行整理，高估值、大市值、未盈利都难以理解，可以选择能理解的品种，这样持股心态更平稳。\n4、不要去挑衅自己的弱点，给自己活下去的机会，给好股票证明自己的机会。通策医疗、爱尔眼科、华韩整形、康乐卫士跌幅巨大，怎样做到毫无感觉？无需内心强大，对持仓进行指数化分散配置，有压舱石有层次感。华韩整形、康乐卫士经历过多次暴跌，但过后又会涨得更高，因为配置对短期错误有包容性。不要给自己弱点暴露的机会，也不要把好股票逼上绝境。\n衡量组合仓位是否合理的感性标准，就是让自己感到舒服，没有压力。\n长线投资经过冷暖更迭才会成熟，凡事没有一帆风顺的，以年为单位来度量投资会淡然许多。\n关于通策\nCXO高增长逻辑很硬，高估值不完全是抱团所致，市场企稳之后又将是反弹最快的板块。\n病去如抽丝，医疗服务板块估计会持续震荡，寻找估值中枢，等待市场重新达成共识。\n基本面的崩溃是无底深渊。\n通策医疗的基本面和成长性没变，唯一问题是高估值，短期基金抱团受到争议，筹码松动。\n据通策医疗交流会透露，四季度和今年1月份延续良好的经营趋势，年初四就开业，同比增长良好，基本盘是稳定的。\n未来两条增长曲线是正常的。蒲公英计划推进顺利，部分诊所半年达到盈亏平衡，显示商业模式的可复制性。省外存济医院没有预期那么不堪，武汉取得很好效果。2020年10月单月550万左右收入，达到盈亏平衡线。西安存济是省外拓展的希望，比武汉发展更好，选址体量和人才都很好。10月9号开始试营业，平均月收入300万。\n种植业务，浙江全省大约30万颗，对标韩国一年300万颗，浙江省未来种植牙市场空间很大。\n正畸业务，年轻人正畸需求很旺盛，通策开发自己的数字化口腔系统，更有利于推广正畸业务。\n2020年估计利润5.5亿，未来两年维持30%增速，2023年利润12亿，PE70，也就是说业绩透支两三年。\n现在的问题是市场能不能接受估值透支，能不能维持30%增速。\n作为好赛道唯一龙头，独家盈利，别家亏损，销售费用几乎没有，是可以享受高溢价的。\n市场会在震荡中寻找到一个合适的锚，先谨慎观察结果。\n时间会治愈一切，这不是鸡汤。\n牙科属于全民级消费市场，龙头市值不到1000亿，会永远这样吗？\n波动是市场的常态，有时会遇到极端情况，这是进入市场的那一刻已经注定的。，即使经历过多轮涨跌，我们也总是会在乐观时更加乐观，悲观时更加悲观，明知对错，但做起来是另外一回事。\n生物医药大部时间比较平稳，就像不生病的人，偶然生一次病就病来如山倒。春季行情结束后一个月，年末一个月，挨打都比较惨。\n在春季行情最亢奋的时候，表达了非常悲观的看法。现在，我也要说，一切都会过去的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296135,"gmtCreate":1615108128227,"gmtModify":1704778713992,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"o(∩_∩)o","listText":"o(∩_∩)o","text":"o(∩_∩)o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296135","repostId":"367210472","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":367210472,"gmtCreate":1614953502796,"gmtModify":1704777393275,"author":{"id":"39105730803552","authorId":"39105730803552","name":"格隆汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8774dfe20eceb38c9645128bb6e60684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"39105730803552","idStr":"39105730803552"},"themes":[],"title":"SPAC?不就是穿上馬甲的次貸麼","htmlText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","listText":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","text":"“如果狗屎能賣出去，投行就會去賣狗屎。” —— 查理·芒格 在剛剛過去的1月份，賈躍亭與他的法拉第未來，憑藉準備通過與特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併而在美國上市的消息，在幾乎已經不關心他到底回不回國了的各大新聞、自媒體的素材庫中死灰復燃。 如果合併成功，FF可以獲得10億美元左右的資金，以及34億美元左右的估值。 （圖源：網絡） 就在上週，有知情人士稱，由李嘉誠家族支持的一家公司，正在就潛在的SPAC上市與顧問合作中，如果該SPAC成功上市，預計可融資4億美元。 除了李嘉誠本人，李嘉誠之子李澤楷也被傳出在已經擁有兩家SPAC的情況下，正在考慮成立第三家。 無獨有偶，賭王何鴻燊之子、新濠國際董事長兼行政總裁何猷龍的私人家族辦公室黑桃資本，也在着力籌備第二筆SPAC投資。 （圖源：網絡） 去年年底，軟銀也遞交了首份SPAC上市申請，並表示還有兩份申請正在籌劃中。 SPAC，無疑已是近年來投資圈的“必入單品”。 01 私募“盲盒”與IPO“黃牛” SPAC—Special Purpose Acquisition Company，可以直譯爲特殊目的收購公司。沒有業務，只有現金，上市唯一的目的就是在合適的時間收購一家合適的未上市公司，助其曲線上市。 說白了，SPAC的全部業務就是“當好一個殼”，上市的使命就是在兩年時間內把自己“借”出去。 由於沒有實業，在這種模式誕生的初期，也被稱爲“空白支票公司”。而“空白”，就是它能在3-6個月內就走完IPO流程的祕訣 —— 路演的時候不需要解釋業務，只需要提供願景，然後重點“吹”一下管理團隊。 SPAC的管理團隊，是SPAC區別於“皮包公司”、“空殼公司”的主要原因。根據美國證券交易委員會的要求，SPAC的發起人需要在5人及以上，其中至少3人須是某一領域的專家或者資深高管。 發起人團隊主攻哪個領域，基本就算指明瞭這個SPAC日後收購的大方向。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/defba801566b7ef284c60411abf03e21","width":"1150","height":"832"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a2ea2dd4ddc860b76248eabaa836713","width":"576","height":"425"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04912baf968ccaf9e0cf0433f58dcd7","width":"622","height":"350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367210472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320296918,"gmtCreate":1615108094634,"gmtModify":1704778712379,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320296918","repostId":"362539769","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":362539769,"gmtCreate":1614647792251,"gmtModify":1704773471458,"author":{"id":"3473897258980608","authorId":"3473897258980608","name":"生财小王子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda8b36c8158f92ecbc8381b5c65c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3473897258980608","idStr":"3473897258980608"},"themes":[],"title":"搞投資，聽說你還不懂PE、ROE及ROA的意義？一文講明白","htmlText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","listText":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","text":"股市就像美女，只有多花心思才能獲得芳心 股票基本分析之PE、ROE、ROA 基本分析是長期投資者最重要的分析方法。 基本分析包含了許多種不同的比率。這次介紹其中三個很基本，也很重要的比率：本益比、ROE 及 ROA，還有三者之間的關係。 PE的概念及意義 介紹：本益比 (P/E Ratio) PE用來衡量股價便宜不便宜，是否被低估 本益比的意義是現在的股價是公司一年獲利的幾倍。 本益比算是基本分析中最基本也是最常用的比率。對投資人來說，本益比也可以理解爲「現在的股價買進的話，公司要幾年才能讓我回本」。本益比越低越好，因爲低本益比代表可以更快回本。 大家應該知道，要讓一個數字變小有兩個方法，讓分子變小或分母變大。所以本益比要低，就要股價低或者 EPS 高（EPS,每股收益即每股盈利,是每股稅後淨利潤）。 簡單地說，本益比是用來衡量公司便不便宜的工具。順便一提，本益比的倒數，稱爲收益率 (收益率= EPS ÷股價) 。我認爲收益率纔是股東的報酬率。比如PE=50，說明股東每年能夠獲得2%的回報，比銀行存款略低。 補充：股東賺到的錢是 EPS，不是股利。所以股東的報酬率是收益率，而不是股利殖利率。 股東權益報酬率 (ROE) ROE的概念與定義 ROE 代表的是公司用自有資本賺錢的能力。這裏解釋一下什麼是股東權益。 首先大家要知道，公司實際持有的資產，其資金來源有兩個：股東出的錢 (股東權益) 及借來的錢 (負債) 。這就是會計恆等式：「資產=負債+股東權益」。 一家公司如果用資產來還清負債，剩下的部分就是屬於股東的錢，叫做股東權益 (股東權益=資產-負債) 。 ROE 想要表達的意義是「公司用股東出的錢來賺取獲利的能力」。 ROE 越高越好，因爲越高 ROE 代表公司可以用同樣的股東權益賺到更多的錢。 要讓一個數字變大有兩個方法，讓分子變大和讓分母變小。 所以 ROE 要高，就","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8a4fd09f0b66373422754edf89a2b","width":"640","height":"234"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69b5659348a6e6abd7d72a1b92655e7","width":"640","height":"1137"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a683acaf97eb94dcc597f38ecb17f6","width":"640","height":"342"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362539769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360505812,"gmtCreate":1613952505136,"gmtModify":1704886046375,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360505812","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360662299,"gmtCreate":1613907867911,"gmtModify":1704885842202,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360662299","repostId":"1129445314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360995789,"gmtCreate":1613806050641,"gmtModify":1704885243792,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360995789","repostId":"2112897171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2112897171","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1613787793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2112897171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 10:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Deep thinking: What is the value logic of Bitcoin?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112897171","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"当年，我在写书的过程中，一度苦苦思索：“比特币是否具有真正的投资价值，它的边界在何处？”当然，需要指出的是，理解了比特币的价值逻辑，和勇于投入比特币还是两回事。这个问题，其实已经在上述的书里有相当清晰的阐述，出于对原书负责人的尊重以及版权关系，我在这里不便展开，但是可以在本文简要探讨一下，自2020年以来的比特币价值发展逻辑到底是什么。新增市值的翻倍，意味着比特币的未来价格可能也得相应调整。","content":"<p>After the Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve, the unit price of Bitcoin continuously broke through record highs. As of 7:00 on February 18, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar rose by nearly 6% in the past 24 hours, hitting $52,621.84 during the session, setting a record high.</p><p>For this price, the author's heart has been calm.</p><p>But there are still many friends around me who are constantly asking, why can Bitcoin rise so much, and where is its value? In 2019, my friends and I were invited by blockchain and virtual asset research institutions in Hong Kong and the Mainland to write a book on cryptocurrency and virtual asset management, and we also thought about this issue for a long time.</p><p>At that time, in the process of writing a book, I once thought hard:<b>\"Does Bitcoin have real investment value, and where are its boundaries?\"</b></p><p>To this end, I re-read the currency and banking textbooks in college and graduate school, had many in-depth conversations with my finance doctoral supervisor (who also has a strong interest in cryptocurrency research), and had many in-depth conversations with experts who are engaged in blockchain and virtual asset research on the front line. I finally found an asset valuation method for cryptocurrency in Bitcoin that conforms to the traditional value determination method.</p><p>Now, this book is finally completed. The title of the book is \"Redefining Finance: Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets\" (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press). I think this book may also be a very in-depth and comprehensive book on virtual asset management on the market so far.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that understanding Bitcoin's value logic and having the courage to invest in Bitcoin are two different things. The best is my own example: when I first started writing the book, Bitcoin was about $7,200 a piece. By the time the book was finally released in October 2020, Bitcoin had already stood firmly at $12,000. Even so, to be honest, I didn't expect Bitcoin to rise to more than $50,000 now, otherwise I might have washed my hands in the golden basin.</p><p>Given that a lot of people have my early confusion about where Bitcoin's value lies, I felt compelled to write a little bit. This issue has actually been explained quite clearly in the above-mentioned book. Out of respect for the person in charge of the original book and the copyright relationship, it is inconvenient for me to expand on it here, but I can briefly discuss in this article the value of Bitcoin since 2020. What is the development logic?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add1b0da5c3d48f88e8f6f44c3bca01e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Bitcoin payment value is further tapped</b></p><p>In the process of writing the book, the author and I studied the operating logic of the Bitcoin and the logic of value evolution. In the end, everyone believed that digital currency had a subversive substitute for many fields of traditional finance.</p><p>For example, the functions of Bitcoin in payment methods and value storage are increasingly recognized by institutional investors at this stage, and as it is further accepted by institutional investors and traditional financial institutions, its function of value scale may also be further supported.</p><p>Speaking of institutional support, here we have to mention a few things that happened in 2020.</p><p><b>The first is the cooperation of traditional financial institutions.</b>One of the most significant changes for Bitcoin in 2020 is that in early October 2020, the world-renowned online payment system<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>The announcement stated that it will allow users to buy, hold and sell multiple cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, on its platform. In addition to trading Bitcoin, PayPal also proposed that it will allow shopping using cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin-<b>This directly gives Bitcoin the same payment function as ordinary fiat currency, which is an important milestone for cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>Although the commercial application scenarios that can actually apply Bitcoin are very limited, PayPal's approach is equivalent to opening a door for Bitcoin to move towards traditional commercial transactions.</b>According to PayPal's announcement, it will allow 26 million PayPal partner stores to begin accepting payments from PayPal in cryptocurrencies in 2021, which include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin. PayPal plans to gradually promote the app to other markets around the world.</p><p>If the PayPal plan is successfully implemented, the Bitcoin will be used as a payment tool to move from the Jianghu to the palace. According to PayPal's plan, users still need to exchange the cryptocurrency in their accounts into legal tender before they can shop, but PayPal provides a conversion platform function, which will make the circulation of Bitcoin smoother. The market expects that this will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand to Bitcoin, while Bitcoin only had a market value of about 300 billion dollars at that time. The doubling of the new market value means that the future price of Bitcoin may have to be adjusted accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85712814a6462189741fc429248f58\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors accelerate allocation</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the active positions of institutional investors have made Bitcoin and related digital currencies officially an independent asset class.</b>If PayPal's announcement only outlines a map of fundamental changes for Bitcoin, then the participation of large American funds directly drives up liquidity in the Bitcoin market.</p><p><b>The most famous of these is the Grayscale Trust.</b>Grayscale is the world's largest digital currency asset management company. The company's English name is Greyscale Investments (Greyscale for short). Grayscale was launched by Digital Currency Group in 2013 with the goal of becoming a \"trustworthy authority in digital currency investment.\"</p><p>Public information shows that the company has publicly collected Bitcoin in the market since 2013. Among them, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), established on September 25, 2013, is Grayscale's largest encrypted digital asset trust product.</p><p>The operation of GBTC is similar to that of ETF (exchange-traded fund), but it does not have a redemption mechanism like ETF (that is, investors can request to exchange each share of ETF for the corresponding underlying assets), and there is also a 12-month lock-up period in the secondary market. Moreover, the primary market subscription of GBTC is only for qualified investors (personal net assets need to exceed USD 1 million or annual income exceeds USD 200,000 for two consecutive years), and the subscription threshold investment amount is at least USD 50,000.</p><p>As of December 2020, the total position of GBTC increased by 58.3% to nearly 570,000 Bitcoin in less than half a year, indicating that in the second half of 2020, a large amount of institutional funds began to pour into Bitcoin. Entering 2021, the pace of buying GBTC is still accelerating. From the beginning of January to the deadline of this article in mid-February, the Bitcoin held by GBTC has increased by nearly 80,000 to 650,000 Bitcoin.</p><p>Due to product design problems, Grayscale is like a Pixiu that only eats but does not vomit. It continues to buy Bitcoin, and can only buy and hold silently. This move has brought a certain demonstration effect to institutional investors.</p><p>In addition to Grayscale, there are other institutions that are constantly pouring into this market, including Galax Digital, which specializes in institutional investors. Michael Novogratz, founder, CEO and chairman of the agency, is a traditional<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>Elite figure, former partner and president of Fortress Investment Group LLC, and previously served as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Partner and served on the Investment Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for 3 years. Galax Digital specializes in buying cryptocurrencies for institutional investors, so its active entry is also interpreted as a signal for institutions to accelerate their entry into the market.</p><p>In addition, on October 8, 2020, mobile payment giant Square also announced an investment of US $50 million in Bitcoin. On October 13, 2020, Stone Ridge Holdings, which has a management scale of more than US $10 billion, announced that it had purchased more than 10,000 Bitcoin pieces worth approximately US $114 million as part of its asset reserve strategy.</p><p>As the market effect of PayPal and Grayscale continues to expand, more and more institutional investors are increasing their demand for cryptocurrencies. The latest case is February 8, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Announced that it is expected to begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment. According to the new policy, Tesla has invested a total of US $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. Tesla founder Musk even changed his avatar to Bitcoin. As soon as this news came out, Bitcoin was quickly pulled up to exceed the $40,000 mark in the short term, with an intraday increase of 11% to $43,172, setting a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0fb4452872548c7983d8860f3e9edb5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Clear regulatory attitude reduces uncertainty</b></p><p><b>The third driving force is the clarification of global regulatory attitudes in 2020, which greatly reduces investors' uncertainty about Bitcoin's later development.</b>Basically, in 2020, regulatory agencies around the world have introduced corresponding measures or policies towards Bitcoin, and have begun to take a more positive attitude towards Bitcoin and virtual asset transactions, such as deciding to adopt standardized regulatory means instead of blindly rejecting or ignoring its development.</p><p>The regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is another separate topic. The author only introduces the general background here.</p><p>The United Nations Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF) proposed regulating virtual assets in 2015. In February 2019, the FATF required member states to extend anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) to the field of virtual assets, and proposed two main options:</p><p><b>(1) Either completely cancel virtual asset transactions;</b></p><p><b>(2) Either bring virtual assets into licensing supervision.</b></p><p>Judging from the current development of the United States, Singapore and Hong Kong, governments of various countries should be more inclined to bring virtual assets into the scope of legal licensing supervision, rather than blindly refusing them.</p><p>In Singapore, on December 10, 2020, DBS Bank announced the launch of the \"DBS Digital Exchange\" (DBS Digital Exchange), which includes the tokenisation, trading and custody of digital assets. Through this platform, DBS uses blockchain technology to provide monetization and secondary market transactions of digital assets including cryptocurrencies, including securities token issuance, digital currency transactions and digital custody services.</p><p>DBS announced that it will provide mutual exchange services for four currencies (Singapore dollar, US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen) and four of the most mature cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple). The above services have been approved in principle by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Compared with Singapore, Hong Kong's pace is slower, but the situation is also developing positively. Also in 2020, as a member of the FATF, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China clearly proposed to bring virtual assets into supervision, and launched a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Consultation, and publicly consult opinions from all sectors of society on whether virtual asset exchanges need to be licensed.</p><p>The previous year, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) actually issued a \"Position Statement\" on virtual asset trading activities in November 2019, allowing virtual asset trading platforms to voluntarily apply for licenses, but this practice only applies to securities-based virtual asset trading platforms, and platforms for non-securities virtual asset trading services are not regulated by this system.</p><p>Therefore, in Hong Kong's public consultation that began in 2020, the author believes that Hong Kong regulators have shown a clearer attitude, that is, virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies should be included in legal trading procedures, rather than shut them out.</p><p>In the long run, it seems that global governments have no plans to join forces to suppress Bitcoin at present. As of February 18th, the market value of Bitcoin is approaching US $1 trillion, which has not yet exceeded the gold market (about US $10 trillion), and it cannot be compared with the traditional bond and stock markets. According to a report by CICC, the stock size of the overall bond market in the United States alone has exceeded $50 trillion.</p><p>However, considering the limited number of theories in Bitcoin, the continuous depreciation of traditional legal tender due to the wide quantity, and Bitcoin's unique mining mechanism, no one dares to say whether the market value of Bitcoin will exceed other kinds of assets in the future. At that time, Bitcoin will be used as a substitute for gold by individual central banks, or it will be jointly stifled by various countries. We have to take one step at a time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Deep thinking: What is the value logic of Bitcoin?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDeep thinking: What is the value logic of Bitcoin?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-20 10:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve, the unit price of Bitcoin continuously broke through record highs. As of 7:00 on February 18, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar rose by nearly 6% in the past 24 hours, hitting $52,621.84 during the session, setting a record high.</p><p>For this price, the author's heart has been calm.</p><p>But there are still many friends around me who are constantly asking, why can Bitcoin rise so much, and where is its value? In 2019, my friends and I were invited by blockchain and virtual asset research institutions in Hong Kong and the Mainland to write a book on cryptocurrency and virtual asset management, and we also thought about this issue for a long time.</p><p>At that time, in the process of writing a book, I once thought hard:<b>\"Does Bitcoin have real investment value, and where are its boundaries?\"</b></p><p>To this end, I re-read the currency and banking textbooks in college and graduate school, had many in-depth conversations with my finance doctoral supervisor (who also has a strong interest in cryptocurrency research), and had many in-depth conversations with experts who are engaged in blockchain and virtual asset research on the front line. I finally found an asset valuation method for cryptocurrency in Bitcoin that conforms to the traditional value determination method.</p><p>Now, this book is finally completed. The title of the book is \"Redefining Finance: Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets\" (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press). I think this book may also be a very in-depth and comprehensive book on virtual asset management on the market so far.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that understanding Bitcoin's value logic and having the courage to invest in Bitcoin are two different things. The best is my own example: when I first started writing the book, Bitcoin was about $7,200 a piece. By the time the book was finally released in October 2020, Bitcoin had already stood firmly at $12,000. Even so, to be honest, I didn't expect Bitcoin to rise to more than $50,000 now, otherwise I might have washed my hands in the golden basin.</p><p>Given that a lot of people have my early confusion about where Bitcoin's value lies, I felt compelled to write a little bit. This issue has actually been explained quite clearly in the above-mentioned book. Out of respect for the person in charge of the original book and the copyright relationship, it is inconvenient for me to expand on it here, but I can briefly discuss in this article the value of Bitcoin since 2020. What is the development logic?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add1b0da5c3d48f88e8f6f44c3bca01e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Bitcoin payment value is further tapped</b></p><p>In the process of writing the book, the author and I studied the operating logic of the Bitcoin and the logic of value evolution. In the end, everyone believed that digital currency had a subversive substitute for many fields of traditional finance.</p><p>For example, the functions of Bitcoin in payment methods and value storage are increasingly recognized by institutional investors at this stage, and as it is further accepted by institutional investors and traditional financial institutions, its function of value scale may also be further supported.</p><p>Speaking of institutional support, here we have to mention a few things that happened in 2020.</p><p><b>The first is the cooperation of traditional financial institutions.</b>One of the most significant changes for Bitcoin in 2020 is that in early October 2020, the world-renowned online payment system<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>The announcement stated that it will allow users to buy, hold and sell multiple cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, on its platform. In addition to trading Bitcoin, PayPal also proposed that it will allow shopping using cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin-<b>This directly gives Bitcoin the same payment function as ordinary fiat currency, which is an important milestone for cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>Although the commercial application scenarios that can actually apply Bitcoin are very limited, PayPal's approach is equivalent to opening a door for Bitcoin to move towards traditional commercial transactions.</b>According to PayPal's announcement, it will allow 26 million PayPal partner stores to begin accepting payments from PayPal in cryptocurrencies in 2021, which include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin. PayPal plans to gradually promote the app to other markets around the world.</p><p>If the PayPal plan is successfully implemented, the Bitcoin will be used as a payment tool to move from the Jianghu to the palace. According to PayPal's plan, users still need to exchange the cryptocurrency in their accounts into legal tender before they can shop, but PayPal provides a conversion platform function, which will make the circulation of Bitcoin smoother. The market expects that this will bring hundreds of billions of dollars in new demand to Bitcoin, while Bitcoin only had a market value of about 300 billion dollars at that time. The doubling of the new market value means that the future price of Bitcoin may have to be adjusted accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85712814a6462189741fc429248f58\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors accelerate allocation</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the active positions of institutional investors have made Bitcoin and related digital currencies officially an independent asset class.</b>If PayPal's announcement only outlines a map of fundamental changes for Bitcoin, then the participation of large American funds directly drives up liquidity in the Bitcoin market.</p><p><b>The most famous of these is the Grayscale Trust.</b>Grayscale is the world's largest digital currency asset management company. The company's English name is Greyscale Investments (Greyscale for short). Grayscale was launched by Digital Currency Group in 2013 with the goal of becoming a \"trustworthy authority in digital currency investment.\"</p><p>Public information shows that the company has publicly collected Bitcoin in the market since 2013. Among them, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), established on September 25, 2013, is Grayscale's largest encrypted digital asset trust product.</p><p>The operation of GBTC is similar to that of ETF (exchange-traded fund), but it does not have a redemption mechanism like ETF (that is, investors can request to exchange each share of ETF for the corresponding underlying assets), and there is also a 12-month lock-up period in the secondary market. Moreover, the primary market subscription of GBTC is only for qualified investors (personal net assets need to exceed USD 1 million or annual income exceeds USD 200,000 for two consecutive years), and the subscription threshold investment amount is at least USD 50,000.</p><p>As of December 2020, the total position of GBTC increased by 58.3% to nearly 570,000 Bitcoin in less than half a year, indicating that in the second half of 2020, a large amount of institutional funds began to pour into Bitcoin. Entering 2021, the pace of buying GBTC is still accelerating. From the beginning of January to the deadline of this article in mid-February, the Bitcoin held by GBTC has increased by nearly 80,000 to 650,000 Bitcoin.</p><p>Due to product design problems, Grayscale is like a Pixiu that only eats but does not vomit. It continues to buy Bitcoin, and can only buy and hold silently. This move has brought a certain demonstration effect to institutional investors.</p><p>In addition to Grayscale, there are other institutions that are constantly pouring into this market, including Galax Digital, which specializes in institutional investors. Michael Novogratz, founder, CEO and chairman of the agency, is a traditional<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">The financial world</a>Elite figure, former partner and president of Fortress Investment Group LLC, and previously served as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Partner and served on the Investment Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for 3 years. Galax Digital specializes in buying cryptocurrencies for institutional investors, so its active entry is also interpreted as a signal for institutions to accelerate their entry into the market.</p><p>In addition, on October 8, 2020, mobile payment giant Square also announced an investment of US $50 million in Bitcoin. On October 13, 2020, Stone Ridge Holdings, which has a management scale of more than US $10 billion, announced that it had purchased more than 10,000 Bitcoin pieces worth approximately US $114 million as part of its asset reserve strategy.</p><p>As the market effect of PayPal and Grayscale continues to expand, more and more institutional investors are increasing their demand for cryptocurrencies. The latest case is February 8, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Announced that it is expected to begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment. According to the new policy, Tesla has invested a total of US $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. Tesla founder Musk even changed his avatar to Bitcoin. As soon as this news came out, Bitcoin was quickly pulled up to exceed the $40,000 mark in the short term, with an intraday increase of 11% to $43,172, setting a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0fb4452872548c7983d8860f3e9edb5\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Clear regulatory attitude reduces uncertainty</b></p><p><b>The third driving force is the clarification of global regulatory attitudes in 2020, which greatly reduces investors' uncertainty about Bitcoin's later development.</b>Basically, in 2020, regulatory agencies around the world have introduced corresponding measures or policies towards Bitcoin, and have begun to take a more positive attitude towards Bitcoin and virtual asset transactions, such as deciding to adopt standardized regulatory means instead of blindly rejecting or ignoring its development.</p><p>The regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is another separate topic. The author only introduces the general background here.</p><p>The United Nations Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF) proposed regulating virtual assets in 2015. In February 2019, the FATF required member states to extend anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) to the field of virtual assets, and proposed two main options:</p><p><b>(1) Either completely cancel virtual asset transactions;</b></p><p><b>(2) Either bring virtual assets into licensing supervision.</b></p><p>Judging from the current development of the United States, Singapore and Hong Kong, governments of various countries should be more inclined to bring virtual assets into the scope of legal licensing supervision, rather than blindly refusing them.</p><p>In Singapore, on December 10, 2020, DBS Bank announced the launch of the \"DBS Digital Exchange\" (DBS Digital Exchange), which includes the tokenisation, trading and custody of digital assets. Through this platform, DBS uses blockchain technology to provide monetization and secondary market transactions of digital assets including cryptocurrencies, including securities token issuance, digital currency transactions and digital custody services.</p><p>DBS announced that it will provide mutual exchange services for four currencies (Singapore dollar, US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen) and four of the most mature cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple). The above services have been approved in principle by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Compared with Singapore, Hong Kong's pace is slower, but the situation is also developing positively. Also in 2020, as a member of the FATF, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China clearly proposed to bring virtual assets into supervision, and launched a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Consultation, and publicly consult opinions from all sectors of society on whether virtual asset exchanges need to be licensed.</p><p>The previous year, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) actually issued a \"Position Statement\" on virtual asset trading activities in November 2019, allowing virtual asset trading platforms to voluntarily apply for licenses, but this practice only applies to securities-based virtual asset trading platforms, and platforms for non-securities virtual asset trading services are not regulated by this system.</p><p>Therefore, in Hong Kong's public consultation that began in 2020, the author believes that Hong Kong regulators have shown a clearer attitude, that is, virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies should be included in legal trading procedures, rather than shut them out.</p><p>In the long run, it seems that global governments have no plans to join forces to suppress Bitcoin at present. As of February 18th, the market value of Bitcoin is approaching US $1 trillion, which has not yet exceeded the gold market (about US $10 trillion), and it cannot be compared with the traditional bond and stock markets. According to a report by CICC, the stock size of the overall bond market in the United States alone has exceeded $50 trillion.</p><p>However, considering the limited number of theories in Bitcoin, the continuous depreciation of traditional legal tender due to the wide quantity, and Bitcoin's unique mining mechanism, no one dares to say whether the market value of Bitcoin will exceed other kinds of assets in the future. At that time, Bitcoin will be used as a substitute for gold by individual central banks, or it will be jointly stifled by various countries. We have to take one step at a time.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a445b50c964238b080d2c25e6bf133","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","CAN":"嘉楠科技","EBON":"亿邦国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112897171","content_text":"中国农历除夕之后，比特币单价连续突破历史新高。截至北京时间2月18日7时，比特币对美元的价格在过去24小时内上涨近6%，盘中触及52621.84美元，再创历史新高。\n对于这个价格，笔者心里已经波澜不惊。\n但是身边仍然有很多朋友不断地在问，为什么比特币能涨这么多，它的价值到底在哪里？这个问题，在我于2019年和朋友受香港和内地两地的区块链及虚拟资产研究机构的邀请，撰写一本关于加密货币与虚拟资产管理的书时，也曾经思考很久。\n当年，我在写书的过程中，一度苦苦思索：“比特币是否具有真正的投资价值，它的边界在何处？”\n为此，我重新翻阅了大学和研究生时代的货币银行学课本，跟自己的金融学博导进行了多次深入的对话（他对于加密货币研究也有浓厚的兴趣），并且和正在第一线从事区块链和虚拟资产研究的专家进行了多次深入的对话，我终为比特币这种加密货币找到了符合传统价值认定方式的资产估值方式。\n现在，这本书终于完成了，书名是《重新定义金融：加密货币与数字资产》（西南财经大学出版社），我自认为，这本书可能也是迄今为止市面上关于虚拟资产管理的非常深入、全面的书。\n当然，需要指出的是，理解了比特币的价值逻辑，和勇于投入比特币还是两回事。最好的就是自己的例子：就在我刚开始写书的时候，比特币是约7200美元一枚，到2020年10月全书收官发行时，比特币已经稳稳地站上了12000美元。即便这样，说实话，我也没想到比特币会涨至现在的超过5万美元，不然可能早已金盆洗手了。\n鉴于很多人都有我早期的困惑，即比特币的价值在哪里，我觉得有必要写一点东西。这个问题，其实已经在上述的书里有相当清晰的阐述，出于对原书负责人的尊重以及版权关系，我在这里不便展开，但是可以在本文简要探讨一下，自2020年以来的比特币价值发展逻辑到底是什么。\n\n01\n比特币支付价值被进一步挖掘\n在写书过程中，我和著作者一起研究了比特币的运作逻辑和价值演变的逻辑，最后大家认为，数字货币对传统金融的很多领域，都具有颠覆性的替代作用。\n举例来说，比特币在支付方式和价值储藏方面的功能正越来越被现阶段的机构投资者认可，而随着它被机构投资人和传统金融机构进一步接受，其价值尺度的功能也可能会进一步得到支持。\n说到机构的支持，这里就不得不提及2020年发生的几件事。\n首先是传统金融机构的配合。2020年对于比特币来说最具意义的一个变化是，在2020年10月初，全球知名在线支付系统PayPal发布公告称，它将允许用户在其平台上购买、持有和出售包括比特币在内的多种加密货币。除了交易比特币，PayPal还提出，将允许使用比特币等加密货币进行购物——这直接赋予比特币与普通法币一样的支付功能，这是加密货币的一个重要里程碑事件。\n尽管可以实际应用比特币的商业应用场景非常有限，但PayPal的做法相当于已经为比特币打开了一道迈向传统商业交易的大门。根据PayPal的公告，它将允许2600万家PayPal合作商店在2021年开始接受PayPal以加密货币付款，这些加密货币包括比特币、以太坊、比特币现金和莱特币。PayPal计划将该应用逐步向全球其他市场推广。\n如果PayPal计划成功推行，则比特币将作为支付工具，从江湖走向殿堂。根据PayPal的计划，用户仍然需要将账户中的加密货币先兑换成法币才能购物，但PayPal提供了转换平台功能，将令比特币的流通更为顺畅。市场预期，这会给比特币带来数千亿美元的新增需求，而当时比特币只有约3000亿美元左右的市值。新增市值的翻倍，意味着比特币的未来价格可能也得相应调整。\n\n02\n机构投资者加速配置\n其次是机构投资者的积极持仓，使得比特币和相关的数字货币已经正式成为一个独立的资产类别。如果说PayPal的一纸公告只是给比特币勾画了一个基本面变化的版图，那么美国大型基金的参与，则直接驱升了比特币市场里的流动性。\n其中最有名的是灰度信托基金。灰度是世界上最大的数字货币资产管理公司，公司英文名称是Greyscale Investments（简称Greyscale），Grayscale由Digital Currency Group于2013年发起，目标是成为“数字货币投资方面值得信赖的权威机构”。\n公开资料显示，该公司自2013年开始公开在市场上收集比特币。其中，2013年9月25日成立的灰度比特币信托（GBTC）是灰度旗下规模最大的加密数字资产信托产品。\nGBTC的运作类似于ETF（交易所交易基金），但它不像ETF那样有赎回机制（即投资者可以要求用每一份额的ETF兑换对应的底层资产），在二级市场的出手也有12个月的锁定期，而且GBTC的一级市场申购只面向合格投资者（个人净资产需要在100万美元以上或是连续两年年收入超过20万美元），申购门槛投资额至少在5万美元以上。\n截至2020年12月，GBTC的总持仓量不到半年的时间增长了58.3%至近57万枚比特币，这表明在2020年下半年，大量的机构资金开始涌入比特币。进入2021年，GBTC的买货步伐还在加速，从1月初至2月中旬本文截稿，GBTC持有的比特币又增加了近8万枚至65万枚比特币。\n由于产品设计的问题，灰度像个只吃不吐的貔貅，持续不断地买入比特币，并且只能默默地买入并持有，此举已经给机构投资者带来了一定的示范效应。\n除了灰度，还有其他的机构不断涌入这个市场，包括专门为机构投资者服务的Galax Digital。该机构的创始人、CEO兼董事长Michael Novogratz是传统金融界的精英人物，曾任Fortress Investment Group LLC的合伙人兼总裁，在FIG之前曾任高盛合伙人，并在纽约联邦储备银行投资顾问委员会任职3年。Galax Digital专门为机构投资者买入加密货币，因此它的积极入场，也被解读为是机构加速入市的信号。\n此外，2020年10月8日，移动支付巨头Square也宣布投资5000万美元的比特币。2020年10月13日，管理规模超过100亿美元的Stone Ridge Holdings宣布，该公司购入1万多枚比特币，价值约1.14亿美元，以作为其资产储备策略的一部分。\n随着PayPal和灰度的市场效应不断扩大，越来越多的机构投资者增加了对加密货币的需求。最新的案例是2021年2月8日，特斯拉宣布，预计将会开始接受比特币作为支付形式，根据新政策，特斯拉总共投资了15亿美元比特币。特斯拉创办人马斯克甚至把头像换成了比特币。此消息一出，比特币短线迅速被拉升突破4万美元关口，日内涨幅高达11%，报43172美元，并创下历史新高。\n\n03\n监管态度明确令不确定性降低\n第三个驱动力是2020年全球监管态度的明确，这使得投资者对于比特币的后期发展的不确定性大大降低。基本上，2020年全球范围内的监管机构对比特币都出台了相应的措施或政策，对比特币和虚拟资产交易开始持更正面的态度，例如决定采用规范化的监管手段，而非一味拒绝或忽略其发展。\n对于比特币和其他加密货币的监管，是另一个独立的话题。笔者这里仅介绍一下大概背景。\n联合国反洗钱金融行动特别工作组（FATF）在2015年便提出针对虚拟资产进行规管。2019年2月，FATF要求成员国把反洗钱和反恐融资（AML/CTF）延伸至虚拟资产领域，并提出两个主要选项：\n（1）要么全面取消虚拟资产交易；\n（2）要么把虚拟资产纳入发牌监管。\n从目前美国、新加坡及中国香港的发展来看，各国政府应该是更倾向于把虚拟资产纳入合法发牌监管范畴，而不是一味拒绝。\n在新加坡，2020年12月10日，星展银行宣布推出“星展数字交易平台”（DBS Digital Exchange），内容包含数字资产的货币化（tokenisation）、交易和保管。通过这个平台，DBS利用区块链技术，提供包括加密货币等数字资产的货币化和次级市场交易，包括证券型代币发行、数字货币交易和数字保管服务。\nDBS宣布，将会为4种货币（新加坡币、美元、港币、日圆）和4种最成熟的加密货币（比特币、以太币、比特币现金、瑞波币）提供相互兑换服务。而上述服务均已获得新加坡金融管理局原则性核准。\n相比新加坡，香港的步伐慢了一些，但形势也在积极发展。同样也是在2020年，作为FATF的一员，中国香港特区明确提出，将虚拟资产纳入监管，并且在2020年11月3日推出一项全民咨询，就虚拟资产交易所是否需要持牌，向社会各界公开咨询意见。\n而在此前一年，香港证监会（SFC）其实已在2019年11月就虚拟资产交易活动发表《立场书》，容许虚拟资产交易平台自愿申请牌照，但此做法只适用于证券型虚拟资产交易服务的平台，非证券型虚拟资产交易服务的平台并不受此制度监管。\n因此，香港2020年开始的公共咨询，笔者认为是香港监管层表现出更明确的态度，即要把加密货币这类虚拟资产纳入合法的交易程序，而不是拒之门外。\n从长远来看，全球政府目前似乎也没有联手打压比特币的计划。截至2月18日，比特币市值逼近1万亿美元，尚未超过黄金市场（约10万亿美元），更是没法和传统的债券及股票市场相比。根据中金的一份报告，仅美国整体债券市场的存量规模已经超过50万亿美元。\n但考虑到比特币的理论数量有限，以及传统法币由于量宽而不断贬值，以及比特币特有的挖矿机制，谁也不敢说未来比特币的市值是否会超过其他各类的资产，届时比特币会被个别央行用于当作黄金的替代品，抑或是被各国联手扼杀，只有走一步看一步了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386552479,"gmtCreate":1613216869691,"gmtModify":1704879469825,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386552479","repostId":"2110020695","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386936900,"gmtCreate":1613124786200,"gmtModify":1704878617075,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386936900","repostId":"1140853678","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140853678","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613097200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140853678?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-12 10:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the \"Nayuki's Tea\" prospectus as sweet as tea?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140853678","media":"资本侦探","summary":"2014年的除夕，联想宣布29亿美元从谷歌手中买下摩托罗拉移动智能手机业务，京东商城递交IPO招股书，彼时行业一片沸腾。2021年的除夕，此前多次对上市传闻“不予置评”的奈雪的茶在香港交易所公布了招股","content":"<p>On New Year's Eve in 2014, Lenovo announced that it would buy Motorola's mobile smartphone business from Google for US $2.9 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The mall submitted the IPO prospectus, and the industry was boiling at that time. On New Year's Eve in 2021, Nayuki's tea, which has repeatedly \"not commented\" on listing rumors, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>The prospectus was published. However, this news of \"hitting the first stock of tea drinks\" did not make too many people stop and pay attention.</p><p>In the past Year of the Rat, new consumer companies can be said to have earned enough attention from the capital market-the market value of Pop Mart exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars on the first day of listing; Perfect Diary (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>) The market value exceeded US $12.2 billion on the first day of listing; Recently, it is reported that Genki Forest's latest valuation is approaching 30 billion yuan (the news comes from China Investment Network).</p><p>The iron must be hot while it is hot. This is the peak period of the valuation of the consumption track. How can there be a lack of \"new tea drinks\" at the forefront of the capital feast?</p><p>Up to now, Nayuki's tea has completed multiple rounds of financing. According to Bloomberg News, after the C round of financing at the beginning of this year, the valuation of Nayuki's tea is close to US $2 billion (about 13 billion yuan).</p><p>And Nayuki's teammates have also shown their strength to attract money-Heytea has gone through 4 rounds of financing, and has received a total of more than 500 million yuan in financing, and its post-investment valuation has also reached 16 billion yuan. There are many IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, Meituan's Dragon Ball Capital and other stars.</p><p>According to other data, in the whole year of 2020, there were a total of 18 financings for tea brands, with a total disclosed amount of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 700%, accounting for 36% of the total financing of the food/health products track that year.</p><p>Is the rise of new consumption and new tea drinks a light or a bubble? The prospectus of Nayuki's tea gives some answers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3bfbffa716c5697ad60c00750ddc3\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Net profit margin is only 0.2%, and single-store sales decline rapidly</p><p>Let's break down the data in the prospectus in detail:</p><p>According to the prospectus, the operating income of Nayuki's tea in 2018, 2019 and the first nine months of 2020 was 1.09 billion yuan, 2.5 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 130.2% and 20.8% respectively.</p><p>Among them, affected by the epidemic in 2020, the offline business was greatly affected during the epidemic, and the year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months showed a sharp slowdown trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac6494b0ccf84adaa20d74a3752a39b\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the case of rapid growth on the revenue side, the performance of Nayuki's tea on the profit side is much inferior.</p><p>Nayuki's tea's net losses under non-IFRS in 2018 and 2019 were 56.58 million and 11.735 million yuan respectively. Although the company achieved a net profit of 4.484 million yuan in 2020,<b>The overall net profit margin is only 0.2%, and the company's profitability is too thin</b>。</p><p>The main reason for the thin profit level is that,<b>The company's operating costs at the store level remain high. The most important costs include raw material costs, staff costs, rental and related store operating expenses, and depreciation costs of fixed assets</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e23e1a95c12e35b522adc18dc750f7\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of operating data, the number of Nayuki's tea stores as of September 30, 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 155, 327, and 422, respectively. Among them, compared with the previous reporting period, the stores on September 30, 2019 and 2020 were respectively The net increase was 172 and 95.</p><p>Although the number of Nayuki's tea stores is still expanding rapidly, it is obvious that the growth rate of its stores is showing a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b547d78007a8078a70615a53e34d85a4\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the number of stores continues to increase,<b>Nayuki's daily tea sales per store and average daily order volume per store have continued to decline</b>。</p><p>Its average daily sales of a single store from January to September in 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 30,700, 27,700, and 20,100 yuan respectively, showing a continuous downward trend.<b>Especially in 2020, the company's average single-store sales have declined rapidly</b>。</p><p>This is largely due to the decline in the number of single-store orders-as the number of tea stores in Nayuki increases, the density of stores gradually increases in core cities, and the number of single-store orders continues to be lowered. Due to the decline in single store turnover, the overall cost at the store level remains unchanged, which also leads to a continuous downward trend in store-level profit margins. Nayuki's tea's single-store profit margin in the first nine months of 2020 was only 12.6%, far lower than the 24.9% in 2018 and 25.3% in 2019.</p><p>The continuous decline in Nayuki's tea single store operating performance has also brought a certain degree of hidden dangers to the company's continued expansion.</p><p>As we all know, under the single-store model of the retail industry, the operating profit of a single store can only be increased when the average number of single-store orders and customer unit prices continue to grow and the operating costs of a single store remain stable. Only by increasing the profit of a single store can the cost of the middle office and back office be evenly shared to achieve the overall profitability of the company.</p><p>At this stage, Nayuki's tea has experienced a rapid decline in the operating efficiency of a single store, which will limit the company's overall expansion speed to a large extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0271a0414e05c24c3df508d37df668\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6a72d14dc792f3a74f325074a3f77c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6616761674d12e4b1a65023f3c8f5c2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"881\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where's the new?</p><p>Previously, Naixue released the \"2020 New Tea Drinks White Paper\" and mentioned that by the end of 2020, the total size of China's tea drinks market will reach 442 billion yuan, and the total size of China's coffee market will reach 215.5 billion yuan. The size of the tea drinks market will still be the size of the coffee market. More than 2 times the size. The market size of new tea drinks will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2020, and is expected to exceed 110 billion yuan by 2021.</p><p>However, no matter how big the market is, it is only paper data. Ruixing's lessons are still ringing in my ears. If you replace the word coffee with tea, will the outcome be very different?</p><p><b>Highly homogeneous products but insufficient standardization-this is a common problem in the new tea industry</b>。</p><p>On the one hand, products lack effective barriers, low thresholds, and formulas are easy to imitate, and the phenomenon of homogeneity is becoming more and more serious. On the other hand, the problem of \"standardization\", which is particularly valued by the consumer industry, is difficult to solve.</p><p>In terms of tea, for suppliers, selling tea with high unit price to high-end business people is enough to support themselves, and the processing and production of raw materials do not need large-scale and large-scale industrial production. The upstream system of China's tea industry has not been structured, so it cannot solve the downstream problems.</p><p>The production links other than tea are also difficult to stabilize. Almost all operations in the production process of new tea products have to be completed by people. Even if there are fructose machines, fruit slicing equipment, milk capping machines and other equipment in the new tea market, people still have the final say in the production process of products. \"How sweet a cup of tea is depends entirely on whether the clerk's hand with sugar shakes or not.\"</p><p>So, how does Nayuki's tea party break through?</p><p>At present, there are two main kinds of \"new\" new consumption:</p><p><b>One is the new consumer brands that have emerged with channel iteration, such as Perfect Diary, Huaxizi, etc.</b>。</p><p>Qian Kun, a partner of Wuyue Capital, once summarized three investment booms in the consumer industry in recent years:</p><p>2007-2008: PC Internet is a foregone conclusion, a large number of offline shopping malls are built, and a large number of consumer and catering brand investments are generated;</p><p>2012 ~ 2013: The pattern of e-commerce platform was formed, and the Amoy brand was favored by capital;</p><p>2016-2017: The unprecedented prosperity of social media drove the rapid growth of new consumer products and services.</p><p>Every consumer investment boom is at the stage when Internet platform companies are beginning to take shape. On the one hand, technology companies have fewer investment targets; on the other hand, Internet platform companies have begun to realize traffic. Many new brands and new services are born in the process of consumers' attention shifting. Consumer investment is to invest in those targets that can grow rapidly and form brand awareness in this process.</p><p>In short, there is no fundamental change in the products, but the channels are new, and the consumer brands that seize the newly emerging channels are new.</p><p><b>The other is the update of products, services, and experiences. New tea drinks obviously belong to this category</b>。</p><p>In the past, most of the milk tea was brewed with powder, without milk or tea, and the area of milk tea shops was relatively small, mostly 3 ~ 5 square meters; After that, the raw materials have been upgraded, and milk tea based on tea powder and tea residue has appeared, as well as milk-covered tea; Now the new tea raw materials are healthier and fresher, and the space in the store is more exquisite and comfortable.</p><p>At the beginning of this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>In an exclusive interview with Peng Xin, the founder of Naixue's tea, it can be seen that his breakthrough ideas are also focused on the latter.</p><p>In Peng Xin's view, the growth mainly comes from two aspects: \"First, we have created many customers for the category. For example, you will find that the main consumer group of new tea drinks is not the one who drank street milk tea shops five years ago. There are many more white-collar workers and business people; Second, we see that the entire category can actually be divided into three dimensions. In fact, the middle and head markets are actually increasing, and the tail product market of about 5 yuan or 10 yuan is shrinking. Whether it is the first-and second-tier market or the sinking market, they are paying more and more attention to quality and gradually moving towards high-end consumption. \"</p><p>In other words,<b>In the process of gaining new consumer groups through \"new\" tea drinks, and grabbing the low-end product market through high-end products, the existing market generated</b>。</p><p>The prospectus summarizes the growth strategy of Nayuki's tea into five points:</p><p>1. Consolidate our leading position in existing markets and expand our business scope in new markets; 2. Further digitize the overall operation to improve efficiency; 3. Strengthen supply chain capabilities; 4. Increase customer engagement to build lasting connections; 5. Launch new innovative popular products, expand product categories and sales channels to unlock the brand potential of Nayuki's tea. It is worth mentioning here that the first point clearly focuses on \"Naixue PRO\". Nayuki's tea plans to open about 300 and 350 Nayuki's tea shops in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in 2021 and 2022, respectively, of which about 70% will be planned as Nayuki PRO tea shops.</p><p>Naixue PRO is a store launched in November last year. It divides its product business model into four modules: coffee, tea, light baking, and snack retail. According to the relevant person in charge of Naixue's tea, unlike previous Naixue stores, which were mostly located in high-end business districts, Naixue PRO will intensively cultivate first-tier cities and enter business office areas and high-density communities.</p><p>But such an action seems to be contrary to the general trend-Heytea opens Xixiaocha, Ruixing opens a self-pickup store, and even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>They are all pushing the \"Coffee Express\" that can be picked up at the store. Will the value of the \"Third Space\" still be great in the future? Will this further reduce Naixue's floor efficiency?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a84022efed9ee9017222c3a4fc51c4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nayuki PRO Store Coffee Product Line Menu</p><p>There is actually a romantic love story behind Naixue's tea: the founder Peng Xin's online name is \"Naixue\". She claims to start from her own experience and use the grip size of her own hand to design a \"Naixue Cup\" that suits women's slender and easy-to-shake hands. When she had the idea of making tea, she sought partners in many ways and finally found Zhao Lin, who had been immersed in Shenzhen's catering industry for many years. We met in March and got engaged in May. Thanks to the joint efforts of Peng Xin and Zhao Lin, Naixue Tea was born.</p><p>Nowadays, when dreams shine into reality, when careers need capital, and when the cold data of the prospectus is in front of us, the story becomes more and more complicated.</p>","source":"lsy1585101920501","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the \"Nayuki's Tea\" prospectus as sweet as tea?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the \"Nayuki's Tea\" prospectus as sweet as tea?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">资本侦探</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-12 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On New Year's Eve in 2014, Lenovo announced that it would buy Motorola's mobile smartphone business from Google for US $2.9 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The mall submitted the IPO prospectus, and the industry was boiling at that time. On New Year's Eve in 2021, Nayuki's tea, which has repeatedly \"not commented\" on listing rumors, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>The prospectus was published. However, this news of \"hitting the first stock of tea drinks\" did not make too many people stop and pay attention.</p><p>In the past Year of the Rat, new consumer companies can be said to have earned enough attention from the capital market-the market value of Pop Mart exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars on the first day of listing; Perfect Diary (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>) The market value exceeded US $12.2 billion on the first day of listing; Recently, it is reported that Genki Forest's latest valuation is approaching 30 billion yuan (the news comes from China Investment Network).</p><p>The iron must be hot while it is hot. This is the peak period of the valuation of the consumption track. How can there be a lack of \"new tea drinks\" at the forefront of the capital feast?</p><p>Up to now, Nayuki's tea has completed multiple rounds of financing. According to Bloomberg News, after the C round of financing at the beginning of this year, the valuation of Nayuki's tea is close to US $2 billion (about 13 billion yuan).</p><p>And Nayuki's teammates have also shown their strength to attract money-Heytea has gone through 4 rounds of financing, and has received a total of more than 500 million yuan in financing, and its post-investment valuation has also reached 16 billion yuan. There are many IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, Meituan's Dragon Ball Capital and other stars.</p><p>According to other data, in the whole year of 2020, there were a total of 18 financings for tea brands, with a total disclosed amount of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 700%, accounting for 36% of the total financing of the food/health products track that year.</p><p>Is the rise of new consumption and new tea drinks a light or a bubble? The prospectus of Nayuki's tea gives some answers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3bfbffa716c5697ad60c00750ddc3\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Net profit margin is only 0.2%, and single-store sales decline rapidly</p><p>Let's break down the data in the prospectus in detail:</p><p>According to the prospectus, the operating income of Nayuki's tea in 2018, 2019 and the first nine months of 2020 was 1.09 billion yuan, 2.5 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 130.2% and 20.8% respectively.</p><p>Among them, affected by the epidemic in 2020, the offline business was greatly affected during the epidemic, and the year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months showed a sharp slowdown trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac6494b0ccf84adaa20d74a3752a39b\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the case of rapid growth on the revenue side, the performance of Nayuki's tea on the profit side is much inferior.</p><p>Nayuki's tea's net losses under non-IFRS in 2018 and 2019 were 56.58 million and 11.735 million yuan respectively. Although the company achieved a net profit of 4.484 million yuan in 2020,<b>The overall net profit margin is only 0.2%, and the company's profitability is too thin</b>。</p><p>The main reason for the thin profit level is that,<b>The company's operating costs at the store level remain high. The most important costs include raw material costs, staff costs, rental and related store operating expenses, and depreciation costs of fixed assets</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e23e1a95c12e35b522adc18dc750f7\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of operating data, the number of Nayuki's tea stores as of September 30, 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 155, 327, and 422, respectively. Among them, compared with the previous reporting period, the stores on September 30, 2019 and 2020 were respectively The net increase was 172 and 95.</p><p>Although the number of Nayuki's tea stores is still expanding rapidly, it is obvious that the growth rate of its stores is showing a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b547d78007a8078a70615a53e34d85a4\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the number of stores continues to increase,<b>Nayuki's daily tea sales per store and average daily order volume per store have continued to decline</b>。</p><p>Its average daily sales of a single store from January to September in 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 30,700, 27,700, and 20,100 yuan respectively, showing a continuous downward trend.<b>Especially in 2020, the company's average single-store sales have declined rapidly</b>。</p><p>This is largely due to the decline in the number of single-store orders-as the number of tea stores in Nayuki increases, the density of stores gradually increases in core cities, and the number of single-store orders continues to be lowered. Due to the decline in single store turnover, the overall cost at the store level remains unchanged, which also leads to a continuous downward trend in store-level profit margins. Nayuki's tea's single-store profit margin in the first nine months of 2020 was only 12.6%, far lower than the 24.9% in 2018 and 25.3% in 2019.</p><p>The continuous decline in Nayuki's tea single store operating performance has also brought a certain degree of hidden dangers to the company's continued expansion.</p><p>As we all know, under the single-store model of the retail industry, the operating profit of a single store can only be increased when the average number of single-store orders and customer unit prices continue to grow and the operating costs of a single store remain stable. Only by increasing the profit of a single store can the cost of the middle office and back office be evenly shared to achieve the overall profitability of the company.</p><p>At this stage, Nayuki's tea has experienced a rapid decline in the operating efficiency of a single store, which will limit the company's overall expansion speed to a large extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0271a0414e05c24c3df508d37df668\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6a72d14dc792f3a74f325074a3f77c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6616761674d12e4b1a65023f3c8f5c2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"881\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where's the new?</p><p>Previously, Naixue released the \"2020 New Tea Drinks White Paper\" and mentioned that by the end of 2020, the total size of China's tea drinks market will reach 442 billion yuan, and the total size of China's coffee market will reach 215.5 billion yuan. The size of the tea drinks market will still be the size of the coffee market. More than 2 times the size. The market size of new tea drinks will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2020, and is expected to exceed 110 billion yuan by 2021.</p><p>However, no matter how big the market is, it is only paper data. Ruixing's lessons are still ringing in my ears. If you replace the word coffee with tea, will the outcome be very different?</p><p><b>Highly homogeneous products but insufficient standardization-this is a common problem in the new tea industry</b>。</p><p>On the one hand, products lack effective barriers, low thresholds, and formulas are easy to imitate, and the phenomenon of homogeneity is becoming more and more serious. On the other hand, the problem of \"standardization\", which is particularly valued by the consumer industry, is difficult to solve.</p><p>In terms of tea, for suppliers, selling tea with high unit price to high-end business people is enough to support themselves, and the processing and production of raw materials do not need large-scale and large-scale industrial production. The upstream system of China's tea industry has not been structured, so it cannot solve the downstream problems.</p><p>The production links other than tea are also difficult to stabilize. Almost all operations in the production process of new tea products have to be completed by people. Even if there are fructose machines, fruit slicing equipment, milk capping machines and other equipment in the new tea market, people still have the final say in the production process of products. \"How sweet a cup of tea is depends entirely on whether the clerk's hand with sugar shakes or not.\"</p><p>So, how does Nayuki's tea party break through?</p><p>At present, there are two main kinds of \"new\" new consumption:</p><p><b>One is the new consumer brands that have emerged with channel iteration, such as Perfect Diary, Huaxizi, etc.</b>。</p><p>Qian Kun, a partner of Wuyue Capital, once summarized three investment booms in the consumer industry in recent years:</p><p>2007-2008: PC Internet is a foregone conclusion, a large number of offline shopping malls are built, and a large number of consumer and catering brand investments are generated;</p><p>2012 ~ 2013: The pattern of e-commerce platform was formed, and the Amoy brand was favored by capital;</p><p>2016-2017: The unprecedented prosperity of social media drove the rapid growth of new consumer products and services.</p><p>Every consumer investment boom is at the stage when Internet platform companies are beginning to take shape. On the one hand, technology companies have fewer investment targets; on the other hand, Internet platform companies have begun to realize traffic. Many new brands and new services are born in the process of consumers' attention shifting. Consumer investment is to invest in those targets that can grow rapidly and form brand awareness in this process.</p><p>In short, there is no fundamental change in the products, but the channels are new, and the consumer brands that seize the newly emerging channels are new.</p><p><b>The other is the update of products, services, and experiences. New tea drinks obviously belong to this category</b>。</p><p>In the past, most of the milk tea was brewed with powder, without milk or tea, and the area of milk tea shops was relatively small, mostly 3 ~ 5 square meters; After that, the raw materials have been upgraded, and milk tea based on tea powder and tea residue has appeared, as well as milk-covered tea; Now the new tea raw materials are healthier and fresher, and the space in the store is more exquisite and comfortable.</p><p>At the beginning of this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>In an exclusive interview with Peng Xin, the founder of Naixue's tea, it can be seen that his breakthrough ideas are also focused on the latter.</p><p>In Peng Xin's view, the growth mainly comes from two aspects: \"First, we have created many customers for the category. For example, you will find that the main consumer group of new tea drinks is not the one who drank street milk tea shops five years ago. There are many more white-collar workers and business people; Second, we see that the entire category can actually be divided into three dimensions. In fact, the middle and head markets are actually increasing, and the tail product market of about 5 yuan or 10 yuan is shrinking. Whether it is the first-and second-tier market or the sinking market, they are paying more and more attention to quality and gradually moving towards high-end consumption. \"</p><p>In other words,<b>In the process of gaining new consumer groups through \"new\" tea drinks, and grabbing the low-end product market through high-end products, the existing market generated</b>。</p><p>The prospectus summarizes the growth strategy of Nayuki's tea into five points:</p><p>1. Consolidate our leading position in existing markets and expand our business scope in new markets; 2. Further digitize the overall operation to improve efficiency; 3. Strengthen supply chain capabilities; 4. Increase customer engagement to build lasting connections; 5. Launch new innovative popular products, expand product categories and sales channels to unlock the brand potential of Nayuki's tea. It is worth mentioning here that the first point clearly focuses on \"Naixue PRO\". Nayuki's tea plans to open about 300 and 350 Nayuki's tea shops in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in 2021 and 2022, respectively, of which about 70% will be planned as Nayuki PRO tea shops.</p><p>Naixue PRO is a store launched in November last year. It divides its product business model into four modules: coffee, tea, light baking, and snack retail. According to the relevant person in charge of Naixue's tea, unlike previous Naixue stores, which were mostly located in high-end business districts, Naixue PRO will intensively cultivate first-tier cities and enter business office areas and high-density communities.</p><p>But such an action seems to be contrary to the general trend-Heytea opens Xixiaocha, Ruixing opens a self-pickup store, and even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>They are all pushing the \"Coffee Express\" that can be picked up at the store. Will the value of the \"Third Space\" still be great in the future? Will this further reduce Naixue's floor efficiency?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a84022efed9ee9017222c3a4fc51c4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nayuki PRO Store Coffee Product Line Menu</p><p>There is actually a romantic love story behind Naixue's tea: the founder Peng Xin's online name is \"Naixue\". She claims to start from her own experience and use the grip size of her own hand to design a \"Naixue Cup\" that suits women's slender and easy-to-shake hands. When she had the idea of making tea, she sought partners in many ways and finally found Zhao Lin, who had been immersed in Shenzhen's catering industry for many years. We met in March and got engaged in May. Thanks to the joint efforts of Peng Xin and Zhao Lin, Naixue Tea was born.</p><p>Nowadays, when dreams shine into reality, when careers need capital, and when the cold data of the prospectus is in front of us, the story becomes more and more complicated.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8bBDHihTV8UK_V5ps-5Zpg\">资本侦探</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ffbe5a8ebba137bf409ca349490c9d3","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8bBDHihTV8UK_V5ps-5Zpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140853678","content_text":"2014年的除夕，联想宣布29亿美元从谷歌手中买下摩托罗拉移动智能手机业务，京东商城递交IPO招股书，彼时行业一片沸腾。2021年的除夕，此前多次对上市传闻“不予置评”的奈雪的茶在香港交易所公布了招股书。不过这一则“冲击茶饮第一股”的消息并没有让太多人驻足留意。在刚刚过去的鼠年里，新消费公司可谓赚足了资本市场的眼球——泡泡玛特上市首日突破千亿港元市值；完美日记（逸仙电商）上市首日市值突破122亿美元；最近还有消息称元气森林最新估值逼近300亿元（消息源自投中网）。打铁须趁热，这正是消费赛道估值的高峰期，资本盛宴里怎么能缺少风口浪尖的“新茶饮”？截至目前，奈雪的茶已完成多轮融资，据彭博社消息，今年年初的C轮融资后，奈雪的茶估值接近20亿美元(约130亿人民币)。而奈雪的茶的队友们也展现出了吸金的实力——喜茶经历4轮融资，累计获得融资超过5亿元人民币，投后估值也到了160亿元，背后不乏IDG资本、红杉资本、高瓴资本、美团旗下龙珠资本等明星。另据资料显示，2020年全年，茶饮品牌一共有18起融资，披露总金额达17.43亿元人民币，同比增长约700％，占到当年食品/保健品赛道融资总额的36％。新消费、新茶饮的崛起究竟是光芒还是泡沫？奈雪的茶这份招股书给出了一些答案。净利润率仅0.2%，单店销售额快速下降来细拆一下招股书的数据：招股书显示，奈雪的茶在2018年、2019年及2020年前9个月营业收入分别为10.9亿、25亿以及21.1亿元人民币，同比增速分别为130.2%和20.8%。其中2020年受疫情影响，线下业务在疫情期间受到较大影响，前9个月营收同比增长呈现大幅放缓趋势。在收入端呈现高速增长的情况下，奈雪的茶在盈利端的表现则要逊色不少。奈雪的茶2018年、2019年非国际财务报告准则下净亏损分别为5658万和1173.5万元，尽管在2020年公司取得净利润448.4万元，但整体净利润率仅为0.2%，公司盈利水平过于单薄。导致利润水平单薄的主要原因在于，公司门店层面经营成本的居高不下导致。其中最主要的成本包含原材料成本、员工成本、租金及相关门店经营开支以及固定资产折旧成本等。经营数据方面，奈雪的茶截止2018年、2019年、2020年9月30日门店数量分别为155、327、422家，其中2019年及2020年9月30日相比较上一报告期门店分别净增加172家和95家。尽管奈雪的茶目前门店数量仍处于快速扩张中，但明显看出其门店增速呈现下降趋势。在门店数量持续增加的情况下，奈雪的茶单店日销售额以及单店日均订单量均出现持续下降趋势。其2018年、2019年、2020年1月～9月单店日均销售额分别为3.07万、2.77万和2.01万元，呈现持续下降趋势，特别是在2020年，公司平均单店销售额出现快速下降。这在很大程度上是由于单店订单数下降导致——随着奈雪的茶门店数量的增加，门店密度在核心城市逐渐增加，单店订单数被持续拉低。而由于单店营业额的下降，但门店层面整体成本保持不变，也导致门店层面利润率呈现持续下降趋势。奈雪的茶在2020年前9个月单店利润率仅为12.6%，远低于2018年的24.9%和2019年的25.3%。奈雪的茶单店层面经营业绩的持续下降也为公司的持续扩张带来一定程度的隐患。众所周知，在零售行业单店模型下，只有在平均单店订单数及客单价持续增长，单店经营成本保持稳定的情况下，单店的经营利润才能提升。而单店利润的提升，才能最终平摊掉中台及后台的成本实现公司整体盈利。而奈雪的茶在现阶段已经出现单店经营效率的快速下降，这在很大程度上会限制公司整体的扩张速度。新在哪里？此前奈雪发布了《2020新式茶饮白皮书》中提到，2020年底中国茶饮市场总规模将达到4420亿元，中国咖啡市场总规模将达到2155亿元，茶饮市场规模仍将是咖啡市场规模的2倍以上。而新式茶饮市场规模在2020年将超过1000亿元，预计到2021年会突破1100亿。然而市场再大也只是纸面数据，瑞幸的教训言犹在耳，把咖啡二字替换成茶饮，结局会大不相同吗？产品高度同质化却标准化不足——这是新茶饮行业的通病。一方面，产品缺乏有效壁垒、门槛低、且配方易被模仿，同质化现象越来越严重。另一方面，消费行业尤为看重的“标品化”问题难以解决。由于在茶叶方面，对供应商而言，向高端商务人士散卖高客单价的茶叶足以养活自己，原材料加工、生产并不必大面积、大规模的工业化生产。中国茶饮行业的上游的体系一直没有架构起来，因此也解决不了下游的问题。茶叶之外的制作环节也难以稳定。新茶饮产品制作过程中几乎所有操作都要靠人来完成。新茶饮市场即便有了果糖机、水果切片设备、奶盖机等设备，产品的制作过程还是人说了算。“一杯茶有多甜，完全取决于店员放糖的手抖不抖。”那么，奈雪的茶会如何突围呢？目前看来，新消费的“新”主要有两种：一种是伴随着渠道迭代而崛起的新消费品牌，比如完美日记、花西子等。五岳资本合伙人钱坤曾总结过这些年消费行业的三次投资热潮：2007年～2008年：PC互联网成定局，线下购物中心大量兴建，大量消费和餐饮品牌的投资产生；2012年～2013年：电商平台格局形成，淘品牌获得资本的青睐；2016年～2017年：社交媒体空前繁荣，带动新型消费产品和服务的快速增长。每一次消费投资热潮都是在互联网平台公司初具规模的阶段，一方面科技公司投资标的变少，另一方面互联网平台公司开始流量变现，消费者注意力转移的过程中诞生了许多新品牌和新服务，消费投资就是在这个过程中投资那些能够快速增长并形成品牌认知的标的。简言之，产品没有根本性的变化，但渠道新了，抓住新崛起渠道的消费品牌也就新了。另一种则是产品、服务、体验的更新，新茶饮显然属于这一范畴。过去的奶茶大多数粉末冲化的，不含奶也不含茶，奶茶店的面积也比较小，大部分是3平方米～5平方米；之后原料有了升级，出现了以茶末、茶渣为基底制作的奶茶，也有了奶盖茶；而现在的新式茶饮原料更健康新鲜，店内空间也更加精美舒适。在今年年初36氪对奈雪的茶创始人彭心的专访中可以看到其突围思路也是集中在后者。在彭心看来，增长主要来自两个方面：“第一，我们为品类创造了很多客户，比如你会发现新式茶饮的主要的消费客群并不是5年前喝街边奶茶店的那一群客人，多了很多白领、商务人士；第二，我们看到其实目前整个的品类可以分为大概的三个维度，其实中部和头部这两块市场其实都是在增大的，尾部这种5块、10块左右的产品市场是在缩减的。不管是一二线市场还是下沉市场，都是越来越看重品质的，逐渐往高端消费去走。”也就是说，通过“新”茶饮去收获新的消费群体，以及通过高端产品，抢夺低端产品市场的过程中，所产生的存量市场。招股书中将奈雪的茶的增长策略归纳为五点：1. 巩固在现有市场的领导地位及扩大在新市场的业务范围；2. 进一步数字化整体运营以提高效率；3. 加强供应链能力；4. 提高顾客参与度以建立持久的联系；5. 新推出创新性的热门产品、扩展产品种类及销售渠道以释放奈雪的茶的品牌潜力。这里值得一提的是第一点明确落脚在了“奈雪PRO”上。奈雪的茶计划2021年、2022年主要在一线城市及新一线城市分别开设约300间、350间奈雪的茶茶饮店，其中约70%将规划为奈雪PRO茶饮店。奈雪PRO是其去年11月推出的店型，将产品经营模式分为咖啡、茶饮、轻烘焙、零食零售四大模块。据奈雪的茶相关负责人介绍，不同于此前奈雪门店多定位在高端商圈，奈雪PRO将精耕一线城市，进驻商务办公区、高密度社区。但这样的动作似乎和大趋势相悖——喜茶开喜小茶、瑞幸开自提店，连星巴克都在强推到店即取的“啡快”，“第三空间”的价值在未来还大吗？这是否会进一步降低奈雪的坪效？奈雪PRO店咖啡产品线菜单奈雪的茶背后其实有一段浪漫的爱情故事：创始人彭心的网名叫“奈雪”，她声称从自身体验出发，以自己手的握度尺寸打样，设计出符合女性纤细易握手感的“奈雪杯”。当她有了做茶的念头后，多方寻求合作者，终于找到了在深圳餐饮界浸淫多年的赵林。3月相识，5月订婚，在彭心和赵林的共同努力下，奈雪の茶诞生了。如今，当梦想照进现实，当事业需要资本，当招股书冰冷的数据摆在眼前，故事也就越来越复杂了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388018605,"gmtCreate":1613001370207,"gmtModify":1704877201018,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388018605","repostId":"1168524354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380852650,"gmtCreate":1612534968170,"gmtModify":1704872516793,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"250?","listText":"250?","text":"250?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380852650","repostId":"1178591238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178591238","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612528765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178591238?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-05 20:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks set off a \"short squeeze storm\", Liulishuo soared 250%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178591238","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月5日（周五），美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨。美国参议院以51-50票的表决结果，通过了总统拜登1.9万亿美元疫情救济计划的一个预算蓝图，此前两党经过近15小时的苦战进行修订。中概股$流利说$盘前暴涨超250%，昨日该股收涨33.3%。近一个月内，流利说并未发布任何事件、财报等公告。$极光$盘前大涨125%，近日公司宣布与快手在广告商业化领域达成合作。截至发稿，国际黄金期货价格报1803.25美元/盎司，涨幅0.67%。","content":"<p>On February 5 (Friday), the three major U.S. stock index futures collectively rose during the pre-market session. The U.S. Senate voted 51-50 to pass a budget blueprint for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan after nearly 15 hours of bitter bipartisan struggle to revise it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd55cc1b273b1f792446d918bdf2bb93\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>[Pre-market market]</b></p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>It soared more than 250% before the market, and the stock closed up 33.3% yesterday. In the past month, Liulishuo has not released any events, financial reports and other announcements. According to the regulations of the New York Stock Exchange, Liulishuo does not need to explain to investors after this surge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec6eb429ae0a55714aaf55f043f5b2b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>It rose 125% before the market. Recently, the company announced that it has reached a cooperation with Kuaishou in the field of advertising commercialization.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>It rose more than 24% before the market. Litchi has increased by 339% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>It rose 34% before the market and rose more than 55% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>The short-term rise before the market, once rose by more than 22%, and now it has fallen back to 14%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>There was a change before the market, and it is now up 22.2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose 3.8% before the market. According to media reports on Friday citing people familiar with the matter, Tencent Music has been finalized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The leading investment bank is promoting the listing in Hong Kong, and plans to complete the listing within the year, with a raising target of US $5 billion. More banks may join the underwriting team in the future, and the listing time may also change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.25% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose 0.22% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose 0.87% before the market.</p><p><b>Important US stocks</b></p><p>Retail investors' group concept stocks generally rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up 2.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Up 1.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Up 0.41%. Brokerage Robinhood had previously removed temporary restrictions on stock and options positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNY\">Sanofi</a>It rose 2.5% before the market, and turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, achieving a net profit of 1.09 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Up 0.94% premarket, oilfield services companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBLX\">Noble Midstream</a>It rose more than 6% before the market. Chevron offered to buy Noble Midstream for $12.47 per share.</p><p>Special purpose acquisition company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DCRB\">Decarbonization Plus</a>It rose 19.36% before the market. It is reported that Hyzon, an American hydrogen fuel vehicle company, has agreed to merge and go public with it.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>It fell 6.88% before the market, and the loss situation in the fourth quarter was worse than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity</a>It fell 14% before the market. The company's full-year loss situation was worse than expected, and the company warned in its earnings report that changes in Apple's IDFA policy would affect the way mobile game developers acquire new customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>It rose more than 10% before the market, turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the number of monthly active users increased by 11% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>It rose more than 8% before the market, net profit in the fourth quarter increased by 46% year-on-year, and the number of monthly active users was nearly 400 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>It rose more than 3% before the market, and its full-year net profit far exceeded market expectations. Remdesivir sales reached US $1.938 billion.</p><p><b>[Commodities]</b></p><p>◆ International oil prices rose. Crude oil markets were buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. commodity orders in December, signaling a strengthening manufacturing sector and hopes that lawmakers will quickly approve President Biden's $1.9 trillion Novel Coronavirus aid package.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $56.80/barrel, an increase of 1.01%; Brent crude oil was at $59.55 a barrel, an increase of 0.93%.</p><p>◆ Gold and silver prices rebounded. Investors are assessing the impact of the U.S. economic recovery, vaccine campaign and safe-haven demand.</p><p>As of press time, the international gold futures price was at US $1,803.25 per ounce, an increase of 0.67%. Silver futures prices were at $26.585, an increase of 1.34%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks set off a \"short squeeze storm\", Liulishuo soared 250%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Chinese concept stocks set off a \"short squeeze storm\", Liulishuo soared 250%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-05 20:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On February 5 (Friday), the three major U.S. stock index futures collectively rose during the pre-market session. The U.S. Senate voted 51-50 to pass a budget blueprint for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan after nearly 15 hours of bitter bipartisan struggle to revise it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd55cc1b273b1f792446d918bdf2bb93\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>[Pre-market market]</b></p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>It soared more than 250% before the market, and the stock closed up 33.3% yesterday. In the past month, Liulishuo has not released any events, financial reports and other announcements. According to the regulations of the New York Stock Exchange, Liulishuo does not need to explain to investors after this surge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec6eb429ae0a55714aaf55f043f5b2b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>It rose 125% before the market. Recently, the company announced that it has reached a cooperation with Kuaishou in the field of advertising commercialization.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>It rose more than 24% before the market. Litchi has increased by 339% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>It rose 34% before the market and rose more than 55% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>The short-term rise before the market, once rose by more than 22%, and now it has fallen back to 14%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>There was a change before the market, and it is now up 22.2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose 3.8% before the market. According to media reports on Friday citing people familiar with the matter, Tencent Music has been finalized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The leading investment bank is promoting the listing in Hong Kong, and plans to complete the listing within the year, with a raising target of US $5 billion. More banks may join the underwriting team in the future, and the listing time may also change.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.25% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose 0.22% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose 0.87% before the market.</p><p><b>Important US stocks</b></p><p>Retail investors' group concept stocks generally rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up 2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up 2.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Up 1.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>Up 0.41%. Brokerage Robinhood had previously removed temporary restrictions on stock and options positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNY\">Sanofi</a>It rose 2.5% before the market, and turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, achieving a net profit of 1.09 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Up 0.94% premarket, oilfield services companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBLX\">Noble Midstream</a>It rose more than 6% before the market. Chevron offered to buy Noble Midstream for $12.47 per share.</p><p>Special purpose acquisition company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DCRB\">Decarbonization Plus</a>It rose 19.36% before the market. It is reported that Hyzon, an American hydrogen fuel vehicle company, has agreed to merge and go public with it.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap</a>It fell 6.88% before the market, and the loss situation in the fourth quarter was worse than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity</a>It fell 14% before the market. The company's full-year loss situation was worse than expected, and the company warned in its earnings report that changes in Apple's IDFA policy would affect the way mobile game developers acquire new customers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>It rose more than 10% before the market, turned losses into profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the number of monthly active users increased by 11% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>It rose more than 8% before the market, net profit in the fourth quarter increased by 46% year-on-year, and the number of monthly active users was nearly 400 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">Gilead Sciences</a>It rose more than 3% before the market, and its full-year net profit far exceeded market expectations. Remdesivir sales reached US $1.938 billion.</p><p><b>[Commodities]</b></p><p>◆ International oil prices rose. Crude oil markets were buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. commodity orders in December, signaling a strengthening manufacturing sector and hopes that lawmakers will quickly approve President Biden's $1.9 trillion Novel Coronavirus aid package.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $56.80/barrel, an increase of 1.01%; Brent crude oil was at $59.55 a barrel, an increase of 0.93%.</p><p>◆ Gold and silver prices rebounded. Investors are assessing the impact of the U.S. economic recovery, vaccine campaign and safe-haven demand.</p><p>As of press time, the international gold futures price was at US $1,803.25 per ounce, an increase of 0.67%. Silver futures prices were at $26.585, an increase of 1.34%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178591238","content_text":"2月5日（周五），美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨。美国参议院以51-50票的表决结果，通过了总统拜登1.9万亿美元疫情救济计划的一个预算蓝图，此前两党经过近15小时的苦战进行修订。【盘前行情】热门中概股中概股流利说盘前暴涨超250%，昨日该股收涨33.3%。近一个月内，流利说并未发布任何事件、财报等公告。根据纽交所规定，此次暴涨后流利说也无需向投资者解释说明。极光盘前大涨125%，近日公司宣布与快手在广告商业化领域达成合作。荔枝盘前涨超24%。荔枝本周涨幅已达339%；猎豹移动盘前涨34%，本周涨超55%；途牛盘前短线拉升，一度涨超22%，现回落至14%；36氪盘前异动，现涨22.2%。腾讯音乐盘前涨3.8%。据媒体周五援引知情人士报道，腾讯音乐已经敲定摩根大通、摩根士丹利为首的投行推进赴港上市事宜，计划在年内完成上市，募集目标为50亿美元。后续可能会有更多的银行加入承销团队，上市时间也有可能发生变化。阿里巴巴盘前跌0.25%，拼多多盘前涨0.22%，京东盘前涨0.87%。重要美股散户抱团概念股盘前普涨，游戏驿站涨2.8%，AMC院线涨2.68%，高斯电子涨1.12%，黑莓涨0.41%。此前券商商Robinhood已移除了对股票及期权头寸的临时限制。赛诺菲盘前涨2.5%，第四季度同比扭亏为盈，实现净利润10.9亿欧元。雪佛龙盘前涨0.94%，油田服务公司Noble Midstream盘前涨超6%。雪佛龙提出以每股12.47美元的价格收购Noble Midstream。特殊目的收购公司Decarbonization Plus盘前涨19.36%，据悉美国氢燃料汽车公司Hyzon据悉同意与其进行合并上市。Snap盘前跌6.88%，第四季度亏损状况差于市场预期。Unity盘前跌14%。公司全年亏损状况差于预期，公司在财报中警告苹果IDFA政策的变化将影响手机游戏开发商获得新客户的方式。Pinterest盘前涨超10%，第四季度同比扭亏为盈，月活跃用户数同比增加11%。动视暴雪盘前涨超8%，第四季度净利润同比增加46%，月活跃用户数近4亿。吉利德科学盘前涨超3%，全年净利润远超市场预期，瑞德西韦销售额达19.38亿美元。【大宗商品】◆国际油价上涨。原油市场受到了12月强于预期的美国商品订单的鼓舞，表明制造业走强，并希望议员们迅速批准拜登总统提出的1.9万亿美元的新冠病毒援助计划。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报56.80美元/桶，涨幅1.01%；布伦特原油报59.55美元每桶，涨幅0.93%。◆黄金、白银价格反弹。投资者正在评估美国经济复苏、疫苗行动和避险需求的影响。截至发稿，国际黄金期货价格报1803.25美元/盎司，涨幅0.67%。白银期货价格报26.585美元，涨幅1.34%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAIX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315650715,"gmtCreate":1612247318737,"gmtModify":1704868669570,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315650715","repostId":"312181831","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":312181831,"gmtCreate":1612065732223,"gmtModify":1704867096744,"author":{"id":"3559801585445898","authorId":"3559801585445898","name":"Brain樣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a768ddb092ce6f32e0feb20423507722","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559801585445898","idStr":"3559801585445898"},"themes":[],"title":"你可能不知道的大衆汽車軋空慘案","htmlText":"2008年11月20號早上8點，我邊吃早餐邊看CNN轉播美國汽車業三巨頭要求紓困的聽證會。爲了能在美國7000億美元的救市計劃中分到最後一杯羹，通用、福特、克萊斯勒的三位CEO專程趕到國會哭窮，因爲這三大汽車公司當時正瀕臨倒閉的邊緣。其實這筆本來就少得可憐的紓困金早已所剩無幾，其中有一半要留給下任的奧巴馬，而本屆可用的一半中，已經大部分被用來紓困銀行業，剩下的最後一點兒大家都想要。可誰也沒想到，三大汽車公司居然在這個時候跳出來伸手討錢。這點兒錢救助他們三家中的任何一家都還遠遠不夠，真要全給了他們，其他行業還想雨露均沾嗎？由此你可以想象，美國社會對此事的觀感有多差。所以，當有議員冒壞水兒，問這三位CEO有誰不是坐私人飛機來華盛頓時，估計所有的觀衆都跟我一樣覺得特解氣，因爲這三位仁兄竟無一人舉手，他們當即在國會殿堂上被譏諷爲“世界上最富裕的乞丐”。看着這三位曾經那麼不可一世的CEO，如今卻要爲“手背朝下”而飽受羞辱，不知怎的，那一刻讓我想起了他們的歐洲同行保時捷。專做跑車的保時捷，若論企業規模，只配做美國三大品牌的小老弟。可論起撈錢本領和口袋深度，那它絕對是大哥大。單在2007年，保時捷的純利就高達64億歐元，照此時通用與福特的市值，這筆錢足以把兩家公司一起買下來。實際上，攥着大把現金的保時捷還真是想收購，只不過它的目標可不是美國同行，而是德國大衆。要說保時捷打算收購大衆，那也是由來已久，地球兒人都知道，這本無陰謀可言，可最後它又是如何演變成一場舉世關注的大陰謀呢？本文就來說說這件事兒。由於保時捷是上市公司，收購舉動必須公告，所以當它在2005年9月26日正式對外公佈要收購大衆時，保時捷未來將會大舉買入大衆股票，自然也就盡人皆知了。然而，這種盡人皆知並未造成市場上跟風買股、搭車賺錢，反倒招致大規模的反向做空，從而造成了一場針對大衆股價的多空對做。保時捷當然是站在多方，而空方則是","listText":"2008年11月20號早上8點，我邊吃早餐邊看CNN轉播美國汽車業三巨頭要求紓困的聽證會。爲了能在美國7000億美元的救市計劃中分到最後一杯羹，通用、福特、克萊斯勒的三位CEO專程趕到國會哭窮，因爲這三大汽車公司當時正瀕臨倒閉的邊緣。其實這筆本來就少得可憐的紓困金早已所剩無幾，其中有一半要留給下任的奧巴馬，而本屆可用的一半中，已經大部分被用來紓困銀行業，剩下的最後一點兒大家都想要。可誰也沒想到，三大汽車公司居然在這個時候跳出來伸手討錢。這點兒錢救助他們三家中的任何一家都還遠遠不夠，真要全給了他們，其他行業還想雨露均沾嗎？由此你可以想象，美國社會對此事的觀感有多差。所以，當有議員冒壞水兒，問這三位CEO有誰不是坐私人飛機來華盛頓時，估計所有的觀衆都跟我一樣覺得特解氣，因爲這三位仁兄竟無一人舉手，他們當即在國會殿堂上被譏諷爲“世界上最富裕的乞丐”。看着這三位曾經那麼不可一世的CEO，如今卻要爲“手背朝下”而飽受羞辱，不知怎的，那一刻讓我想起了他們的歐洲同行保時捷。專做跑車的保時捷，若論企業規模，只配做美國三大品牌的小老弟。可論起撈錢本領和口袋深度，那它絕對是大哥大。單在2007年，保時捷的純利就高達64億歐元，照此時通用與福特的市值，這筆錢足以把兩家公司一起買下來。實際上，攥着大把現金的保時捷還真是想收購，只不過它的目標可不是美國同行，而是德國大衆。要說保時捷打算收購大衆，那也是由來已久，地球兒人都知道，這本無陰謀可言，可最後它又是如何演變成一場舉世關注的大陰謀呢？本文就來說說這件事兒。由於保時捷是上市公司，收購舉動必須公告，所以當它在2005年9月26日正式對外公佈要收購大衆時，保時捷未來將會大舉買入大衆股票，自然也就盡人皆知了。然而，這種盡人皆知並未造成市場上跟風買股、搭車賺錢，反倒招致大規模的反向做空，從而造成了一場針對大衆股價的多空對做。保時捷當然是站在多方，而空方則是","text":"2008年11月20號早上8點，我邊吃早餐邊看CNN轉播美國汽車業三巨頭要求紓困的聽證會。爲了能在美國7000億美元的救市計劃中分到最後一杯羹，通用、福特、克萊斯勒的三位CEO專程趕到國會哭窮，因爲這三大汽車公司當時正瀕臨倒閉的邊緣。其實這筆本來就少得可憐的紓困金早已所剩無幾，其中有一半要留給下任的奧巴馬，而本屆可用的一半中，已經大部分被用來紓困銀行業，剩下的最後一點兒大家都想要。可誰也沒想到，三大汽車公司居然在這個時候跳出來伸手討錢。這點兒錢救助他們三家中的任何一家都還遠遠不夠，真要全給了他們，其他行業還想雨露均沾嗎？由此你可以想象，美國社會對此事的觀感有多差。所以，當有議員冒壞水兒，問這三位CEO有誰不是坐私人飛機來華盛頓時，估計所有的觀衆都跟我一樣覺得特解氣，因爲這三位仁兄竟無一人舉手，他們當即在國會殿堂上被譏諷爲“世界上最富裕的乞丐”。看着這三位曾經那麼不可一世的CEO，如今卻要爲“手背朝下”而飽受羞辱，不知怎的，那一刻讓我想起了他們的歐洲同行保時捷。專做跑車的保時捷，若論企業規模，只配做美國三大品牌的小老弟。可論起撈錢本領和口袋深度，那它絕對是大哥大。單在2007年，保時捷的純利就高達64億歐元，照此時通用與福特的市值，這筆錢足以把兩家公司一起買下來。實際上，攥着大把現金的保時捷還真是想收購，只不過它的目標可不是美國同行，而是德國大衆。要說保時捷打算收購大衆，那也是由來已久，地球兒人都知道，這本無陰謀可言，可最後它又是如何演變成一場舉世關注的大陰謀呢？本文就來說說這件事兒。由於保時捷是上市公司，收購舉動必須公告，所以當它在2005年9月26日正式對外公佈要收購大衆時，保時捷未來將會大舉買入大衆股票，自然也就盡人皆知了。然而，這種盡人皆知並未造成市場上跟風買股、搭車賺錢，反倒招致大規模的反向做空，從而造成了一場針對大衆股價的多空對做。保時捷當然是站在多方，而空方則是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312181831","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312590769,"gmtCreate":1612163159251,"gmtModify":1704867565560,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"co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補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","listText":"中信的效率有多高，18號律師見證，25號收到第一封信件（賬戶資料及密碼函），29號收到香港卡！！！10天！！！ 補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","text":"中信的效率有多高，18號律師見證，25號收到第一封信件（賬戶資料及密碼函），29號收到香港卡！！！10天！！！ 補充一下密碼函包括網銀密碼函與實體卡取現密碼函。唯一要吐槽的地方就是中信香港app不是很好用，跟民生香港app比起來還是差了點，不過有實體卡就可以彌補中信的不足了，大陸卡ATM取現太香了。今天主要給大家講一下中信香港的激活流程以及使用教程。（自己一路試過來真的頭疼）當你收到第一封信件之後，幾天內就會有香港中信給你打電話跟你覈實一下信息，覈實完信息就會收到以下電郵。這個時候中信香港就可以用起來了。第一步、www.cncbinternational.com 先登錄這個網,點擊立即登錄-個人理財-首次登記首次登記會用到第一次收到的密碼函信封“私人密碼封函編號”賬戶在外邊，密碼在裏邊（密碼函可以沿周邊虛線打開），後續輸入並確認你的賬戶名稱、密碼等信息（這個就是你中信的登錄賬戶與密碼一定要記好，忘記後找回無敵麻煩。）第二步、下載兩個app，信銀國際令牌需要在官網啓動，下面有截圖指導，後期就用這倆app操作轉賬匯款。第三步、設置交易限額，全部拉滿。第四步、啓動實體卡取現，上限調整至20000------------------------前期的激活及基礎設置就這些-----------------------接下來教大家如何使用中信香港fps轉賬。信銀國際FPS操作示範：（點開鏈接先點擊右上角轉化爲中文簡體）http://www.cncbinternational.com/personal/promotions/fps/tc/index.html鏈接內容分爲三點①如何轉賬至未登記收款人補充幾點：第一次用會提醒小額轉賬設定，按提示操作就行。完成之後每天FPS限額是1w，需要通過登記收款人將限額提高到5w（即中信FPS一天轉一個賬戶的限額爲6w）；具體操作：打開中信國際app-點","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5940d6fc4343daacb6f099edfb02c865","width":"549","height":"295"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632ef8bcb915f71f3e9d2e05f1f3cc6c","width":"660","height":"231"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a76884fada9083aa9bc1208b85673a","width":"660","height":"265"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312946244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334811243,"gmtCreate":1610724577082,"gmtModify":1704985939833,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334811243","repostId":"1126562453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126562453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610716609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126562453?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-15 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"New Debt King\" Gundlach looks forward to 2021: a year of great changes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126562453","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"“新债王”冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货","content":"<p><i>Gundlach, the \"new debt king\", recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0900dcad3be53069226de0c3ea50406e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Looking forward to 2021, the key word given by \"new debt king\" Jeffrey Gundlach is \"vicissitudes of life\". During this year, many megatrends that prevailed for many years will reverse, and investors must be prepared for this-the U.S. stock market will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will strengthen, and the dollar will tend to weaken.</p><p>The founder and CEO of Los Angeles Double Line Capital is a giant in the fixed income mutual fund and ETF industry, and has the reputation of debt king. Earlier this week, during an online seminar, he released his 2021 global market and economic annual forecast.</p><p>The subtitle of Gundlach's expected report is \"Aqualung\", which pays tribute to the famous sculpture of the same name created by Jeff Koons in the 1970s (Gundlach himself is a modernist art lover). Scuba is an artificial device that allows divers to breathe underwater. Gundlach uses it here as a metaphor for various financial instruments (such as monetary policy), which financial markets rely on to survive in extreme environments.</p><p>The following is a summary of what Gundlach expects this year.</p><p>According to Deutsche Bank's customer survey, U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks are the most popular asset categories for investors at the moment, while value-oriented fixed-income products, cash and UK stocks are the most left out.</p><p>Although the news of significant progress in vaccines later came out, the global GDP forecast has not changed since the middle of last year. Gundlach pointed out that in fact, the economy is still in recession. \"You have to be able to fully reverse all kinds of negative performance and get back to the pre-epidemic GDP growth trend line, and we are actually still relying on all those policies to survive now.\"</p><p>Since 2016, the long-term growth trend line of GDP has been around 2.5%, and now, the economic output of the United States is still about $1 trillion offline. So the economy hasn't really come out of recession, Gundlach believes.</p><p>The technology industry accounts for 6% of U.S. gross domestic product and 2% of employment, but it accounts for as much as 38% of the total market value of the S&P 500 index. As shown in the figure below, Gundlach's comment is that this shows that \"the severity of wealth imbalance is obvious\".</p><p>Americans are not traveling half as often as before the outbreak, according to the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, but around Thanksgiving and Christmas, things have changed slightly. Gundlach said that this development can be seen as preliminary evidence that there is indeed a suppressed demand.</p><p>The survey found that the proportion of people willing to telecommute from home five days a week has soared from 27% before the epidemic to 61% in October, while those willing to work from home at least one day a week are as high as 95%. Gundlach predicted that this would force enterprises to make \"difficult decisions\" and reset their jobs to adapt to the change of employees' minds.</p><p>When the epidemic first broke out, the initial wave of layoffs appeared in areas such as travel, leisure and entertainment, and hotels. With the deepening of economic restructuring, more and more high-paying jobs have begun to fall victim to layoffs, and Gundlach believes that layoffs are spreading up the income ladder, and now it is only the beginning.</p><p>Now, the consumption of goods has begun to increase, but the employment situation is deteriorating. Gundlach said that this is actually the gradual emergence of the \"dark side\" of stimulus policy. Consumers do spend more money, but most of this money goes to areas that generate fewer job opportunities, such as online retailing.</p><p>From the end of the third quarter of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the debt-to-GDP ratio of many major economies has increased significantly, among which the United States is particularly eye-catching. 97% of the gross domestic product soared to 127%.</p><p>Gundlach pointed out that the Fed's balance sheet is also growing roughly in tandem. Currently, the Fed's plan is to grow its balance sheet by $12 billion per month in 2021, of which $8 billion will come from quantitative easing and $4 billion will come from the purchase of mortgage bonds.</p><p>The U.S. trade deficit has begun to expand, reaching 3.4% of GDP. Although the expansion rate is limited, the absolute figure is the largest since 2008. As for the fiscal deficit, it is even more \"explosive\". The double deficit situation means that the US dollar can only be in a long-term downward channel. However, Gundlach is still neutral to the US dollar at present, because there is still a lag period of 18 to 24 months before the double deficit really has a substantial impact on the US dollar.</p><p>\"The most significant directional change will be the weakness of the US dollar.\" Previously, the US Dollar Index peaked twice in 2016 and in the initial stages of this epidemic, and now the decline is the general trend. Gundlach said that the S&P 500 index still enjoys the support of the zero interest rate policy, but inflation will become a heavyweight \"game changer.\" Previously, inflation continued to be moderate for quite some time, providing strong support for stock and bond prices. However, with high inflation, the relationship between these assets will become closer.</p><p>At present, based on the P/E of earnings expectations, the S&P 500 index is 6% higher than the non-US market as a whole, far exceeding the normal 2%. Gundlach pointed out that this difference in performance has reached a level not seen since 2008, and \"perhaps the performance of the United States relative to other places has reached a peak point.\"</p><p>At present, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings of U.S. stocks is 32, while the rest of the world markets as a whole are only 16. Gundlach pointed out that, in fact, unlike what many people think, U.S. stocks are not always more expensive than other stocks, especially before the Internet bubble era. \"The cyclically adjusted P/E in the United States is higher than the rest of the world, which is by no means always the case.\"</p><p>With the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as spokespersons, emerging market stocks have performed better than U.S. stocks since June, reversing the momentum since the beginning of 2019 in one fell swoop. Gundlach advised investors to overweight Asian markets. In fact, during this period, the performance of the Latin American market declined slightly, and the strength of emerging markets was mainly contributed by the Asian market, among which South Korea was particularly eye-catching. However, Gundlach added that Latin America is making a comeback because the local economy is becoming one of the earliest beneficiaries of the vaccine. His suggestion is that if investors have a certain risk tolerance, they might as well consider Latin America.</p><p>The average reading of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) in 2020 is approaching 30, which is about three times the average reading since 2013. Gundlach believes that this is the forerunner of \"great changes\".</p><p>The performance of the Nasdaq relative to the S&P 500 index has actually reached a level comparable to that of the Internet era. Gundlach warned that so-called FAANG stocks have \"overheated their engines.\" If this heat exceeds the extreme level of 1999, \"it's finished\", which means that U.S. stock prices will fall across the board.</p><p>Other signs of great changes include the fact that the Dow is no longer performing better than micro-cap stocks, and the S&P 500 is no longer performing better than the Russell 2000 index, a small-cap stock indicator. Gundlach commented that small stocks have got a \"roaring start\" this year, and those corporate stocks with poor balance sheets can no longer maintain better-than-average performance.</p><p>Those \"zombie enterprises\", that is, enterprises whose interest costs have exceeded profits, have increased from 8% to 15% of all American enterprises in the past decade. These companies are often players with aggressive price strategies. Their existence and increase have caused de-inflationary effects and put long-term pressure on prices.</p><p>Gundlach cited data on global bank stocks. Since 1995, the stock of Bank of Japan has fallen by 84%. The performance of European bank stocks followed that of American banks until the global financial crisis. Since then, U.S. bank stocks have left European banks far behind. This is mainly because low and even negative interest rates have had a very serious impact on the business and financial performance of Japanese and European banks. The Federal Reserve has never taken the step towards negative interest rates, which is crucial to the performance of Bank of America.</p><p>Taking the consumer price index as a reference, the inflation rate in the United States has been less than 3% for more than 20 years, but gundlach believes that this situation may hardly last. Although there are still two possibilities of deflation (because of debt levels) and inflation (because of money printing) in the future, Gundlach's judgment is that by June 2021, the consumer price index will rise by more than 2.5%.</p><p>Gundlach recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</p><p>Gundlach said that he is currently neutral on gold and believes that it is not the right opportunity to buy it. He is also neutral to Bitcoin, but at the same time emphasizes that the latter fluctuates too violently-\"you may lose 20% in an hour\". Behind Bitcoin's recent surge, it relies largely on the narrative endorsed by institutional investors, such as the statement of billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones.</p><p>Stocks are already quite expensive, just not expensive relative to bonds. The chart below shows the relative performance of the yield based on the stock cycle-adjusted earnings versus the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond. In fact, stocks are still near the bottom of the range, indicating that they are relatively cheap relative to bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f598a477b4ac314c0b4cb7daf7527b8f\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"449\"></p><p>According to the copper-gold ratio, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield should have been 2%. Gundlach added that many other indicators are sending similar signals-current bond yields are too low.</p><p>Therefore, his prediction is that unless the Fed takes action to control the yield curve, the curve will inevitably gradually become steeper. \"If yield curve control doesn't occur, the yield differential between the two-year and ten-year Treasury Bond will be 300 basis points.\"</p><p>Another factor that will push yields higher is that foreign investors as a whole have actually been net sellers of U.S. Treasury Bond for the past seven years. According to this, Gundlach questioned-if the Ministry of Finance wants to issue new bonds without causing yields to rise rapidly. Can they find enough buyers to ensure that their wishes come true?</p><p>He also said that bank loans look \"cheap\" at present and will benefit from the prospect of higher inflation and interest rates.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"New Debt King\" Gundlach looks forward to 2021: a year of great changes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"New Debt King\" Gundlach looks forward to 2021: a year of great changes\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-15 21:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Gundlach, the \"new debt king\", recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0900dcad3be53069226de0c3ea50406e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Looking forward to 2021, the key word given by \"new debt king\" Jeffrey Gundlach is \"vicissitudes of life\". During this year, many megatrends that prevailed for many years will reverse, and investors must be prepared for this-the U.S. stock market will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will strengthen, and the dollar will tend to weaken.</p><p>The founder and CEO of Los Angeles Double Line Capital is a giant in the fixed income mutual fund and ETF industry, and has the reputation of debt king. Earlier this week, during an online seminar, he released his 2021 global market and economic annual forecast.</p><p>The subtitle of Gundlach's expected report is \"Aqualung\", which pays tribute to the famous sculpture of the same name created by Jeff Koons in the 1970s (Gundlach himself is a modernist art lover). Scuba is an artificial device that allows divers to breathe underwater. Gundlach uses it here as a metaphor for various financial instruments (such as monetary policy), which financial markets rely on to survive in extreme environments.</p><p>The following is a summary of what Gundlach expects this year.</p><p>According to Deutsche Bank's customer survey, U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks are the most popular asset categories for investors at the moment, while value-oriented fixed-income products, cash and UK stocks are the most left out.</p><p>Although the news of significant progress in vaccines later came out, the global GDP forecast has not changed since the middle of last year. Gundlach pointed out that in fact, the economy is still in recession. \"You have to be able to fully reverse all kinds of negative performance and get back to the pre-epidemic GDP growth trend line, and we are actually still relying on all those policies to survive now.\"</p><p>Since 2016, the long-term growth trend line of GDP has been around 2.5%, and now, the economic output of the United States is still about $1 trillion offline. So the economy hasn't really come out of recession, Gundlach believes.</p><p>The technology industry accounts for 6% of U.S. gross domestic product and 2% of employment, but it accounts for as much as 38% of the total market value of the S&P 500 index. As shown in the figure below, Gundlach's comment is that this shows that \"the severity of wealth imbalance is obvious\".</p><p>Americans are not traveling half as often as before the outbreak, according to the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, but around Thanksgiving and Christmas, things have changed slightly. Gundlach said that this development can be seen as preliminary evidence that there is indeed a suppressed demand.</p><p>The survey found that the proportion of people willing to telecommute from home five days a week has soared from 27% before the epidemic to 61% in October, while those willing to work from home at least one day a week are as high as 95%. Gundlach predicted that this would force enterprises to make \"difficult decisions\" and reset their jobs to adapt to the change of employees' minds.</p><p>When the epidemic first broke out, the initial wave of layoffs appeared in areas such as travel, leisure and entertainment, and hotels. With the deepening of economic restructuring, more and more high-paying jobs have begun to fall victim to layoffs, and Gundlach believes that layoffs are spreading up the income ladder, and now it is only the beginning.</p><p>Now, the consumption of goods has begun to increase, but the employment situation is deteriorating. Gundlach said that this is actually the gradual emergence of the \"dark side\" of stimulus policy. Consumers do spend more money, but most of this money goes to areas that generate fewer job opportunities, such as online retailing.</p><p>From the end of the third quarter of 2019 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the debt-to-GDP ratio of many major economies has increased significantly, among which the United States is particularly eye-catching. 97% of the gross domestic product soared to 127%.</p><p>Gundlach pointed out that the Fed's balance sheet is also growing roughly in tandem. Currently, the Fed's plan is to grow its balance sheet by $12 billion per month in 2021, of which $8 billion will come from quantitative easing and $4 billion will come from the purchase of mortgage bonds.</p><p>The U.S. trade deficit has begun to expand, reaching 3.4% of GDP. Although the expansion rate is limited, the absolute figure is the largest since 2008. As for the fiscal deficit, it is even more \"explosive\". The double deficit situation means that the US dollar can only be in a long-term downward channel. However, Gundlach is still neutral to the US dollar at present, because there is still a lag period of 18 to 24 months before the double deficit really has a substantial impact on the US dollar.</p><p>\"The most significant directional change will be the weakness of the US dollar.\" Previously, the US Dollar Index peaked twice in 2016 and in the initial stages of this epidemic, and now the decline is the general trend. Gundlach said that the S&P 500 index still enjoys the support of the zero interest rate policy, but inflation will become a heavyweight \"game changer.\" Previously, inflation continued to be moderate for quite some time, providing strong support for stock and bond prices. However, with high inflation, the relationship between these assets will become closer.</p><p>At present, based on the P/E of earnings expectations, the S&P 500 index is 6% higher than the non-US market as a whole, far exceeding the normal 2%. Gundlach pointed out that this difference in performance has reached a level not seen since 2008, and \"perhaps the performance of the United States relative to other places has reached a peak point.\"</p><p>At present, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings of U.S. stocks is 32, while the rest of the world markets as a whole are only 16. Gundlach pointed out that, in fact, unlike what many people think, U.S. stocks are not always more expensive than other stocks, especially before the Internet bubble era. \"The cyclically adjusted P/E in the United States is higher than the rest of the world, which is by no means always the case.\"</p><p>With the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust as spokespersons, emerging market stocks have performed better than U.S. stocks since June, reversing the momentum since the beginning of 2019 in one fell swoop. Gundlach advised investors to overweight Asian markets. In fact, during this period, the performance of the Latin American market declined slightly, and the strength of emerging markets was mainly contributed by the Asian market, among which South Korea was particularly eye-catching. However, Gundlach added that Latin America is making a comeback because the local economy is becoming one of the earliest beneficiaries of the vaccine. His suggestion is that if investors have a certain risk tolerance, they might as well consider Latin America.</p><p>The average reading of the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) in 2020 is approaching 30, which is about three times the average reading since 2013. Gundlach believes that this is the forerunner of \"great changes\".</p><p>The performance of the Nasdaq relative to the S&P 500 index has actually reached a level comparable to that of the Internet era. Gundlach warned that so-called FAANG stocks have \"overheated their engines.\" If this heat exceeds the extreme level of 1999, \"it's finished\", which means that U.S. stock prices will fall across the board.</p><p>Other signs of great changes include the fact that the Dow is no longer performing better than micro-cap stocks, and the S&P 500 is no longer performing better than the Russell 2000 index, a small-cap stock indicator. Gundlach commented that small stocks have got a \"roaring start\" this year, and those corporate stocks with poor balance sheets can no longer maintain better-than-average performance.</p><p>Those \"zombie enterprises\", that is, enterprises whose interest costs have exceeded profits, have increased from 8% to 15% of all American enterprises in the past decade. These companies are often players with aggressive price strategies. Their existence and increase have caused de-inflationary effects and put long-term pressure on prices.</p><p>Gundlach cited data on global bank stocks. Since 1995, the stock of Bank of Japan has fallen by 84%. The performance of European bank stocks followed that of American banks until the global financial crisis. Since then, U.S. bank stocks have left European banks far behind. This is mainly because low and even negative interest rates have had a very serious impact on the business and financial performance of Japanese and European banks. The Federal Reserve has never taken the step towards negative interest rates, which is crucial to the performance of Bank of America.</p><p>Taking the consumer price index as a reference, the inflation rate in the United States has been less than 3% for more than 20 years, but gundlach believes that this situation may hardly last. Although there are still two possibilities of deflation (because of debt levels) and inflation (because of money printing) in the future, Gundlach's judgment is that by June 2021, the consumer price index will rise by more than 2.5%.</p><p>Gundlach recommended a so-called barbell portfolio. Specifically, one end is cash and U.S. Treasury Bond as a hedge against the prospect of deflation; On the other end is half stocks-mainly emerging markets, especially Asian stocks, and half real assets (real estate or gold) as a hedge against the inflation outlook. \"It's a winning formula.\"</p><p>Gundlach said that he is currently neutral on gold and believes that it is not the right opportunity to buy it. He is also neutral to Bitcoin, but at the same time emphasizes that the latter fluctuates too violently-\"you may lose 20% in an hour\". Behind Bitcoin's recent surge, it relies largely on the narrative endorsed by institutional investors, such as the statement of billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones.</p><p>Stocks are already quite expensive, just not expensive relative to bonds. The chart below shows the relative performance of the yield based on the stock cycle-adjusted earnings versus the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond. In fact, stocks are still near the bottom of the range, indicating that they are relatively cheap relative to bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f598a477b4ac314c0b4cb7daf7527b8f\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"449\"></p><p>According to the copper-gold ratio, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield should have been 2%. Gundlach added that many other indicators are sending similar signals-current bond yields are too low.</p><p>Therefore, his prediction is that unless the Fed takes action to control the yield curve, the curve will inevitably gradually become steeper. \"If yield curve control doesn't occur, the yield differential between the two-year and ten-year Treasury Bond will be 300 basis points.\"</p><p>Another factor that will push yields higher is that foreign investors as a whole have actually been net sellers of U.S. Treasury Bond for the past seven years. According to this, Gundlach questioned-if the Ministry of Finance wants to issue new bonds without causing yields to rise rapidly. Can they find enough buyers to ensure that their wishes come true?</p><p>He also said that bank loans look \"cheap\" at present and will benefit from the prospect of higher inflation and interest rates.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sx5LRuCD6m0qI_SsvZLgjg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ce8ecf1c322228b36ddbb621a98231","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sx5LRuCD6m0qI_SsvZLgjg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126562453","content_text":"“新债王”冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货膨胀前景的对冲。“这是一个必胜的公式。”\n\n\n展望2021年，“新债王”冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）给出的关键词是“沧桑巨变”。在这一年当中，许多之前盛行多年的大趋势都会宣告反转，而投资者对此必须做好准备——美国股市的表现将不及世界其他地方，通货膨胀将会抬升，波动率将会强化，美元将会趋向疲软。\n这位洛杉矶双线资本创始人、首席执行官是一位固定收益共同基金及ETF行业的巨头，有债王的美誉。本周早些时候，在一次线上研讨会期间，他发布了自己的2021年全球市场及经济年度预期。\n冈拉克预期报告的副标题是“水肺”（Aqualung），以此来致敬昆斯（Jeff Koons）上世纪70年代创作的著名同名雕塑（冈拉克本人是一位现代派艺术爱好者）。水肺是一种人工装置，可以让潜水者在水下呼吸，冈拉克在这里用其比喻各种金融工具（比如货币政策），金融市场正是靠着这些工具在极端环境当中存活下来的。\n以下即冈拉克今年预期的内容概要。\n根据德意志银行的客户调查，美国股票和新兴市场股票是投资者当下最青睐的资产门类，而最受冷落的，则是价值导向型固定收益产品、现金和英国股票。\n虽然后来传出了疫苗取得重大进展的消息，但是从去年年中以来，全球国内生产总值预期就没有改变过。冈拉克指出，其实现在经济依然是在衰退当中。“你必须能够让各种消极表现全部充分反转，回到疫情爆发前的国内生产总值增长趋势线上，而我们现在，其实依然是在依靠着所有那些政策而存活。”\n2016年以来，国内生产总值的长期增长趋势线是2.5%左右，而现在，美国经济产出还处在线下大约1万亿美元的地方。因此，冈拉克认为，经济尚未真正走出衰退。\n科技行业在美国国内生产总值当中占比6%，在就业当中占比2%，但是该板块在标普500指数总市值当中却占比高达38%。如下图所示，冈拉克的点评是，这正说明“财富不均衡的严重程度显而易见”。\n根据美国运输安全管理局的数据，美国人的旅行频率还不及疫情爆发前的一半，但是在感恩节和圣诞节前后，局面已经略有改观。冈拉克说，这一发展可以视为初步的证据，证明确实存在着受到压制的需求。\n调查发现，愿意每周五天都居家远程办公的人所占据比例已经从疫情前的27%猛增到10月间的61%，而愿意每周至少一天在家上班的人，更是高达95%。冈拉克预言说，这将迫使企业做出“艰难的决定”，对工作进行重新设置，以适应员工想法的改变。\n疫情刚刚爆发时，最初的裁员潮是出现在旅行、休闲娱乐和旅馆等领域。伴随经济重组的深入，越来越多高薪职位也开始成为裁员的牺牲品，而冈拉克相信，裁员沿着收入阶梯向上蔓延，现在还只是一个开始。\n现在，商品消费量已经开始增长，但是就业情况却在恶化。冈拉克说，这其实正是刺激政策的“黑暗面”的逐渐显现。消费者确实是花掉了更多的钱，但是这些钱大多流向了产生就业机会较少的领域，比如线上零售业。\n从2019年第三季度结束到2020年第三季度结束，不少主要经济体的债务对国内生产总值比率都出现了大幅度升高，其中美国尤其引人注目，债务从相当于国内生产总值的97%猛增到了127%。\n冈拉克指出，联储资产负债表大致也是同步增长。目前，联储的计划是，在2021年当中让资产负债表每月增长120亿美元，其中80亿美元是来自量化宽松，40亿美元是来自购买抵押债券。\n美国贸易赤字已经开始扩张，达到了国内生产总值的3.4%，虽然扩张幅度有限，但是绝对数字已经是2008年以来最大的了。至于财政赤字，更是呈现“爆炸”态势。双赤字的局面就意味着美元只能是处在长期下滑的通道当中。不过冈拉克目前对美元还是中立的立场，因为双赤字要真正对美元形成实质性的影响，还有十八个月到二十四个月的滞后期。\n“最重大的方向性变化就将是美元的疲软。”此前，美元指数于2016年，以及本次疫情的最初阶段曾经两次见顶，而现在下滑已经是大势所趋。冈拉克表示，标普500指数目前还享受着零利率政策的支撑，但是通货膨胀将成为重量级的“游戏改变者”。此前相当时间内，通货膨胀持续温和，为股票和债券价格提供了有力的支持。不过，伴随通货膨胀高企，这些资产之间的关联也会变得更加密切。\n目前，基于盈利预期的市盈率，标普500指数要比非美市场整体高出6%，远远超出正常情况下的2%。冈拉克指出，这一表现差异已经达到了2008年以来所仅见的水平，“也许美国相对于其他地方的表现已经到了见顶的时刻”。\n目前，美股的周期调整市盈是32，而世界其他市场整体只有16。冈拉克指出，其实与许多人以为的不同，美股并不是总要贵过其他股票的，在互联网泡沫时代之前尤其如此。“美国的周期调整市盈率高于世界其他地方，这绝不是历来如此的。”\n以iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF和SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust分别为代言人，新兴市场股票的表现6月以来就一直要好过美股，一举扭转了2019年年初以来的势头。冈拉克建议投资者增持亚洲市场。事实是，这段时间里，拉丁美洲市场表现还略有下滑，新兴市场的强势主要都是亚洲市场的贡献，其中韩国尤其抢眼。不过冈拉克又补充道，拉美正在卷土重来，因为当地经济正在成为疫苗最早的受益者之一。他的建议是，如果投资者有一定的风险承受力，不妨考虑拉美。\n以芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）2020年当中的平均读数逼近30，大约相当于2013年以来平均读数的近三倍。冈拉克认为，这正是“沧桑巨变”的先声。\n纳指相对于标普500指数的表现，其实已经达到了可以和互联网时代相提并论的水平。冈拉克警告说，所谓FAANG股票已经“引擎过热”。如果这种热度再超过1999年的极端水平，“那就完蛋了”，意思是说，美股价格将全线下滑。\n其他沧桑巨变的迹象还包括，道指的表现当下已经不再好于微型股票了，标普500指数的表现也不再好于小型股票指标罗素2000指数了。冈拉克评论道，小型股票在今年获得了一个“咆哮的开始”，那些资产负债表较差的企业股票，已经无法再维持好于平均水准的表现了。\n那些“僵尸企业”，即利息成本已经超过利润的企业，在全部美国企业当中的占比过去十年以来从8%增加到了15%。这些企业往往都是价格策略激进的玩家，他们的存在和增加造成了去通货膨胀影响，对价格形成了长期压力。\n冈拉克举出了全球银行股票的数据。1995年至今，日本银行股票已经累计下跌84%。欧洲银行股票表现一直追随着美国银行，直至全球金融危机爆发。从那之后，美国银行股票就将欧洲银行远远抛在了身后。这主要是因为低利率乃至负利率对日本和欧洲银行的业务及财务表现造成了非常严重的影响。美国联储始终没有迈出负利率的那一步，这一点对美国银行的表现至关重要。\n以消费价格指数为参照，美国的通货膨胀率已经超过二十年都不到3%了，但是冈拉克认为，这样的局面恐怕很难再持续下去了。虽然说起来，未来依然是通货紧缩（因为债务水平）和通货膨胀（因为印钞）两种可能性并存，但是冈拉克的判断是，到2021年6月，消费者价格指数就将涨过2.5%。\n冈拉克推荐了一个所谓杠铃投资组合。具体而言，一端是现金和美国国债，作为针对通货紧缩前景的对冲；另外一端是一半股票——主要是新兴市场，尤其是亚洲股票，一半真实资产（房地产或黄金），作为针对通货膨胀前景的对冲。“这是一个必胜的公式。”\n冈拉克表示，自己目前对黄金是中立的立场，认为目前不是买进的合适机会。他对比特币也是中立的立场，但是同时又强调后者波动太过剧烈——“你可能一小时就亏掉20%”。比特币近期的暴涨背后，很大程度上是依靠着机构投资者背书的叙事，比如亿万富翁投资人琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）的表态。\n股票价格已经相当昂贵，只是相对于债券还算不上昂贵。下图为基于股票周期调整盈利的收益率与十年期国债收益率的相对表现。股票其实依然居于区间接近底部的位置，说明它们相对于债券还算廉价。\n\n根据铜金比率推算，十年期国债收益率本应该是2%才对。冈拉克补充说，其他许多指标也都发出了类似的信号——当前的债券收益率过低了。\n因此，他的预测是，除非联储出手进行收益率曲线控制，不然曲线必然会逐渐趋向陡峭。“如果不发生收益率曲线控制，两年期和十年期国债的收益率差将达到300个基点。”\n另外一个将使得收益率走高的因素是，过去七年时间当中，外国投资者整体而言其实一直是美国国债的净卖家。冈拉克据此发出质疑——财政部想要在不导致收益率飞速上扬的i情况下发行新债，他们是否能够找到足够多的买家，来确保自己的愿望得以实现？\n他还说，银行贷款目前看上去较为“廉价”，而且将从通货膨胀和利率走高的前景当中获益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335680421,"gmtCreate":1610586554963,"gmtModify":1704984725645,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335680421","repostId":"332565330","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":332565330,"gmtCreate":1610435760000,"gmtModify":1704983660740,"author":{"id":"3527667638457531","authorId":"3527667638457531","name":"互联网怪盗团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/887d4a1db5c87bb18e811a63bbad5e18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667638457531","idStr":"3527667638457531"},"themes":[],"title":"每個人都有必要認真學習“財務報表分析”這門基本功","htmlText":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","listText":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","text":"我在大學裏學的是金融專業，還真學了不少課程，花了大量時間精力。然而，時至今日，絕大部分課程已經用不上了。準確的說，從踏入社會、開始工作的那一刻起，在金融學本科階段學習的知識，絕大部分就用不上了： 宏觀經濟學、微觀經濟學這些理論，我們很少在現實中使用。計量經濟學就更不用說了，即便是金融機構的宏觀分析師也只使用其中較淺的部分。 貨幣金融學，我從來沒理解過，好像同學裏也沒有能理解的——但是大家還是從事了貨幣相關的工作，說明這門課應該沒用。 統計學，基本上所有人一出校門就忘光了，分不清“相關性”和“因果性”的大有人在；只有做量化的人還會頻繁使用。 資本市場理論、投資學，這些以“有效市場假說”爲基礎的知識，從頭到尾就沒人當真——如果市場真的“有效”了，還要金融業幹嘛？精神分裂嗎？ 金融衍生品定價，需要深厚的數學基礎，但是隻對一小撮從業人員有用；對於不做金融工程和衍生品交易的人來說，畢業後絕不會用到。 公司財務，看起來很有用，其實大而無當，對實務操作幾乎毫無用處；如果學的太認真反而有害，畢竟做人不能太入戲。 上述大部分課程，如果你考CFA或者讀MBA，還要再學一遍；再學也只是爲了再忘。在現實中，如果不搞學術，如果不去從事一些特別前沿、特別狹窄的金融實務，那麼這些知識的用處確實不大——只能作爲“通識教育”的一部分，提供認識世界的基礎，不能直接派上用場。 但是，有一門課例外，不僅有用，而且有大用；不僅對工作有用，而且對個人財富有用；不僅對金融從業人員有用，而且對非金融、但是與金融市場沾邊的人有用。這就是財務報表分析。 我經常在朋友圈看到Python編程廣告：“學編程要從娃娃抓起”，“中年人學編程還不晚”，“Python有助於提高邏輯思維”……Python有沒有那麼大的神通，我不知道；但是財務報表分析確實很有神通。毫不誇張的說，如果沒有基本的財務報表分析能力，做上市公司分析時就等於瞎子；如果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e6a17be2534f81a01c0e6769ac5f2d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332565330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332530258,"gmtCreate":1610428893174,"gmtModify":1704983608331,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332530258","repostId":"1107390539","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}